Maybe a bit of a misnomer, but what if the Count of Soissons hadn't died immediately after the Battle of La Marfee? He was at the head of an army made up of anti-Richelieu French malcontents and Spanish troops under Lamboy. Soissons and others (the Dukes of Guise and Bouillon to name a few), the so called Princes de la Paix, intended to start a rebellion that would force Richelieu from power then they would withdraw France from the 30 Years War by concluding a peace with Spain based on the status quo ante. Unfortunately after crushing the French royalist army under Chatillon Soissons died under mysterious circumstances (fluke accident surrounded by rumors of assassination) and the rebellion fell apart and it became a small footnote in the history of the Franco-Spanish conflict.
So what if he didn't die and went on to lead a serious rebellion, like the Fronde, against Richelieu's administration? At the time the Portuguese and Catalan revolts are in full swing. The French army of Germany under the capable Guebriant has just joined with the Swedes to break the Imperial siege of Brunswick. The French under Harcourt and Turrenne (Bouillon's own brother) are on the attack in Piedmont and another French army under La Meilleraye was in Flanders besieging Aire. So Spain's position is weak and the odds are long. On the other hand Guise was still gathering forces in Liege and the success of La Marfee would likely cause the Duke of Lorraine to defect the French side which he had only joined 3 months prior with the Treaty of Saint Germain en Laye.
So could the rebels succeed or would this be a repeat of the Spanish campaign of 1636 when Werth and Fernando raided across Champagne and Picardy and penetrated as far Corbie but without any long term benefit? One difference I see is that in '36 Gaston and other malcontents rallied to the French side to repel a foreign invader where as in '41 they are the 'invader'. The Cinq-Mars conspiracy of 1642 showed the depth of the aristocracy's resentment of Richelieu and continued willingness to collaborate with Spain. I still can't see them quickly defeating the French and ending the war but would a string of successes over the summer of '41 lead to a sustained revolt across France like what Spain was experiencing in some of it's territories?
So what if he didn't die and went on to lead a serious rebellion, like the Fronde, against Richelieu's administration? At the time the Portuguese and Catalan revolts are in full swing. The French army of Germany under the capable Guebriant has just joined with the Swedes to break the Imperial siege of Brunswick. The French under Harcourt and Turrenne (Bouillon's own brother) are on the attack in Piedmont and another French army under La Meilleraye was in Flanders besieging Aire. So Spain's position is weak and the odds are long. On the other hand Guise was still gathering forces in Liege and the success of La Marfee would likely cause the Duke of Lorraine to defect the French side which he had only joined 3 months prior with the Treaty of Saint Germain en Laye.
So could the rebels succeed or would this be a repeat of the Spanish campaign of 1636 when Werth and Fernando raided across Champagne and Picardy and penetrated as far Corbie but without any long term benefit? One difference I see is that in '36 Gaston and other malcontents rallied to the French side to repel a foreign invader where as in '41 they are the 'invader'. The Cinq-Mars conspiracy of 1642 showed the depth of the aristocracy's resentment of Richelieu and continued willingness to collaborate with Spain. I still can't see them quickly defeating the French and ending the war but would a string of successes over the summer of '41 lead to a sustained revolt across France like what Spain was experiencing in some of it's territories?