What's the possibility of a military coup against FDR in the 30's after a worse Depression (say Coolidge is reelected and ruins everything) and his New Deal is more socialist in nature to get support from a more angry and poor American people (pissing off a lot of conservative anti-communists in politics and the military and businessmen? Who would lead the coup? Would it last, and if so tell when? How do you think this would effect US relations going into WW2? Any interesting butterflies you thick could happen?
An American Coup
- Thread starter procomicnerd
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About zero. The US has no history of military intervention in politics. Nor is FDR remotely likely to do anything that would look like a threat to constitutional order.
And how big was the US military in the mid-1930s, compared to the militias of the various states? Would it be anywhere near strong enough to take over the whole country without the backing of the State governments?
According to William Manchester in The Glory and the Dream, in 1932, the US Army ranked 17th in the world in size, behind Sweden, among others.
A military coup against the US government, at any time from the early 1800's on to the present is ASB. During the ACW there was disatifaction with Lincoln's decision to remove MacClellan from the AoP and mutterings about a coup which went nowhere beyond talk over drinks. There were "rumblings" with the so-called "businessmen's plot" in the 30s, even rumblings with the MacArthur firing. None of that was more than a few disgruntled folks with too much booze in them. The US military has an incredible tradition of non-interference, and in fact through WWII professional officers usually made a point of NOT voting so there would be no example of partisanship. The oath they take is to "protect and defend the constitution" so IF the military was convinced that removing the president was defending the constitution you might see a coup. However that is theoretically, and that is ASB absent butterflies the size of the moon.
Everyone says the US military couldn't act in an extra-constitutional fashion but I've always wondered about the oath, "against all enemies, foreign AND DOMESTIC". For the first 80 or so years of the Turkish Republic, the army acted as the defender of the Constitution (at least that's what the generals said). It would be impossible now, but the New Deal era has possibilities. After the Supreme Court backed down in its showdown with Roosevelt, could senior military leadership have wondered if SCOTUS was abandoning its role as the guardian of the Constitution? If so, failure to act would be a violation of their oath.
It depends, there have been various times in American history when the potential was there. But the result probably would have been a new Civil War.
It is certainly possible though if anything I only see it coming from the (if we're talking about the 30s) the so called American "Left". I think if for example, let's say Roosevelt dies, or looses because people see he's in a wheelchair (I never actually bought that he'd lose if they found out).
Then assuming a worse depression, the country becomes so destabilized then something is certainly possible. I think, maybe a split EC might do it. Let's Huey Long, and two moderate Republican and Democratic candidates. Than I could, assuming the depression is worse then OTL see a U.S military coup to back Huey Long into the White House, if the House decides against him (however to make this most realistic I'd suggest him getting a huge chunk of the PV and almost all the necessary EV, but just short). However, once the coup is done, Huey probably uses the military/National Guard to create some semi-dictatorship like he did in his home state. He wouldn't actually establish a full on dictatorship, the Army would remove him.
Another idea is perhaps during the civil war a plan like J. W. Booth's plan succeeds and almost the entire cabinet and some congressional leaders are killed/incapacitated. Then the army takes the reigns of the government ostensibly to finish the war and preserve democracy. However, the regime 'survives' through (after winning the war, or loosing it) using the suspension of Habeus Corpus and other similar measures to ensure they stay in power, though after a few generations I don't see this sort of statocracy remaining in place unless the Union looses the Civil War.
Then assuming a worse depression, the country becomes so destabilized then something is certainly possible. I think, maybe a split EC might do it. Let's Huey Long, and two moderate Republican and Democratic candidates. Than I could, assuming the depression is worse then OTL see a U.S military coup to back Huey Long into the White House, if the House decides against him (however to make this most realistic I'd suggest him getting a huge chunk of the PV and almost all the necessary EV, but just short). However, once the coup is done, Huey probably uses the military/National Guard to create some semi-dictatorship like he did in his home state. He wouldn't actually establish a full on dictatorship, the Army would remove him.
Another idea is perhaps during the civil war a plan like J. W. Booth's plan succeeds and almost the entire cabinet and some congressional leaders are killed/incapacitated. Then the army takes the reigns of the government ostensibly to finish the war and preserve democracy. However, the regime 'survives' through (after winning the war, or loosing it) using the suspension of Habeus Corpus and other similar measures to ensure they stay in power, though after a few generations I don't see this sort of statocracy remaining in place unless the Union looses the Civil War.
