I was thinking the exact same thing, but I think Irene is referring to the fact that even if they aren't persecuted, they won't have the influence they do on their side.
An Age of Miracles III: The Romans Endure
- Thread starter Basileus444
- Start date
I would like to see how Persia is able to move on from the war, knowing it somewhat went well in their favor.
Cryostorm
Monthly Donor
By the way I have been reading it, it seems like Mesopotamia is going to end up being Persia's Egypt in the long run. And as they get that settled Persia also seems to have turned their eyes east and north to bring back Central Asia and the Hindu Kush fully under the Ottoman banner once more.
Whether they end up going past that to the Indus is more up in the air, especially with Vijayanagara's preference for no other great power in northern India.
Whether they end up going past that to the Indus is more up in the air, especially with Vijayanagara's preference for no other great power in northern India.
While there is no governmental system that is perfect it does seem that the (essentially) veto system being put in place with the Imperial Council could lead to rapid deterioration of the power of the Imperial office under a weak emperor combined with a group of talented and ambitious men on said council. And on the other hand it could also lead to Imperial Japan type situations "the army and navy collapsing the government by not cooperating with their members of cabinet", at least if I've read that correctly. Then again this could be intentional Foreshadowing on your part I won't be suprised
Important things to note. In the last narrative update (part 15.0: A Compromised Position), they tried to sneak Irene out of Constantinople and got caught and as a result they’re much more closely watched.
Also, here’s a quote from part 13.2: The Killing Fields, Part 2:
Gyranos’s stomach twisted. He knew better than Nereas what Siderid fury looked like; he knew what Demetrios III had ordered to be done in the Pit when he was utterly enraged. He had no wish for himself, or Irene, to find out if the granddaughter, with a murdered brother and murdered mother, took after her grandfather.
And since that quote, Sophia did have the entire immediate family of a would-be assassin publicly executed. While political calculation would suggest that their defection be welcomed, from the Gyranoi’s perspective they are dealing with Sophia “we were born mad” Siderina, and given Andronikos’s associates, this isn’t political; this is personal.
Persia will come up afterwards, with a gradual shift eastward in focus as the regaining of lost border territories removes a western-facing revanchist motivation. As for India and Vijayanagar, put a pin in that thought.
The Megas Domestikos and Megas Doux are both members of the Imperial cabinet and the senior military members of the Army and Navy respectively, as opposed to a civilian Secretary of Defense, so in that respect this setup is a lot more like Imperial Japan’s cabinet. Don’t have any specific plans but it is nice to keep options open. Also sometimes it is interesting to come up with reforms, realize the holes in them, and then build plot threads from them.
Rhomania's General Crisis, Part 18.0: Shall the Sword Devour Forever? Part 1
Rhomania’s General Crisis, Part 18.0-Shall the Sword Devour Forever? Part 1:
The 1663 campaigning season holds a frenzy of activity but the resulting violence is mostly void of decisiveness. In Roman Europe, skirmishes abound along the frontiers of Bulgaria, Macedonia, and Thrace but Domestikos Pirokolos’s efforts to launch another offensive are constantly hamstrung. Incessant naval attacks on the coasts of Macedonia and Hellas play havoc with supply lines and require constant detachments to safeguard assaulted areas. Patras, captured by the Constantinople navy last year, is a particular problem. Containing its garrison consumes two thousand men alone.
Nereas in Thrace has an easier time organizing his forces for an offensive and launches an attack down the Via Egnatia straight for Thessaloniki in June. Pirokolos meets him in battle with a force inferior in numbers but equal in artillery thanks to the output of Macedonian foundries. With those guns, Pirokolos cracks Nereas’s lines, forcing him to retreat. However, the battle began in the evening, with limited daylight remaining after the serious fighting, making an effective pursuit impossible.
Nereas withdraws eastward, setting up a more heavily fortified position. He still has superior numbers and is able to stymie all of Pirokolos’s efforts to outflank the position, which Pirokolos does not want to assault head-on. Even if he wins, the casualties would almost certainly make such a victory pyrrhic. Meanwhile Nereas, chastened by his earlier defeat, is reluctant to go back to the attack without substantial reinforcements. The result is stalemate.
In western Anatolia there is more movement. The commander of Constantinople-loyal forces in the region is Manuel Grammatikos, Strategos of the Opsikian tagma. While he only has the resources of the two northwest Anatolian themes on which to draw, the two regions have a combined population of over four million and are well-developed by pre-industrial standards.
Grammatikos thus has a material and manpower advantage over his opponent to a degree Nereas does not enjoy in Roman Europe. That opponent is Strategos Basil Andronikopulos of Thrakesia. After the withdrawal of Constantinople-loyal forces in 1662, he had taken command of all Thessaloniki-loyal forces in the theme. He has spent the time since then frantically building up the Thrakesian tagma. The theme of Thrakesia is also highly populous and well-developed, more so than both the Opsikian and Optimatic themes, but the area had been heavily disrupted by operations last year and is also only one theme to two. The prospect of reinforcements, which had been so crucial in 1662, is also unlikely. All other theaters loyal to Sophia have their own problems and are unable or unwilling to send aid.
Andronikopulos tries to lure Grammatikos into attacking heavily-fortified positions but with no luck. Grammatikos prefers to force the Thrakesians out of position by flanking their line, which he successfully does at several points although he is unable to pin and hold the Thrakesians for a serious fight. As a result, the Thrakesians retire and the Opsikians advance, but at a slow pace and with few losses here.
Andronikopulos is effectively trading space for time, but what good that time will do is unclear. He is slowing the enemy advance but not halting it. Six weeks after major operations begin, Smyrna is once again under threat. Andronikopulos is willing to let the great city be placed under siege; its fortifications and supply situation have been improved since last year. He is also hopeful that even though the supporting Constantinople fleet can blockade the port, the strain of besieging Smyrna and facing the Thrakesian field army will be enough to overtax the Opsikians. It is not the most promising strategy but given the context it is unclear if better options are available.
The monkey wrench that gets thrown in these works comes from a toolbox nobody in western Anatolia expected, although that is partially because they have not been paying attention. The Army of Suffering has, by this point, spread its actions across all of Anatolikon but its only effort to move beyond the theme boundaries was the attempt at the Cilician Gates which failed miserably.
Misery is the theme of the Anatolikon theme in these years. Chaos and insecurity have caused food production to crater and local trade to collapse. Crop yields continue to be bad even by the low standards of central Anatolia. Famine stalks the countryside. Peasants cling ever more tightly to their lands, whether long-held or recently-gained, and are loathe to give up food. Movements of people, whether members of the Army of Suffering or civilians seeking shelter or sustenance, encourage the spread of disease, especially deadly against malnourished bodies.
The Army of Suffering needs to find greener pastures if it is not to collapse. The Cilician Gates are a no-go. Kastrophylax Theosteriktos has improved his position. With fresh recruits from Cilicia, he has refurbished the medieval fortifications at Loulon, using it as a base to assert Imperial authority in the region. Notably, a key part of his strategy is guaranteeing the land reforms implemented by the Army of Suffering. He has absolutely no authorization from higher authority to do so but given his limited resources, not doing so would have fatally undermined his efforts to expand beyond the Gates.
Going north would require breaking through the Pontic Mountains, which even if successful would not yield much. Pontus has many thriving coastal cities, chief of which are Trebizond and Sinope, but they are heavily dependent on Scythia for grain. To the east lies the Armeniakon, which is in a similar position as Anatolikon, with Ottoman raiders added to the mix.
That leaves the west. The Army of Suffering marches northwest to Bithynia, often known as the Beautiful Province. There is a serious question about exactly how much control the army is under and there is certainly little evidence of an effort to implement any sort of social or economic program. The chief goal is apparently to plunder for provisions, and in this the Army of Suffering proves to be highly effective. As former peasants, they know all the tricks of hiding foodstuffs from requisitions.
They head towards Nicaea. Attacking Constantinople and overthrowing the Imperial system is clearly impracticable; the Army of Suffering has no way of crossing over into Europe. Perhaps the Grand Karaman and Konon hope that once their forces have settled down, they can implement their program in Bithynia, giving it the resources it needs to become a staying concern.
The defenses of the area are woefully inadequate. Untouched by war since the Time of Troubles, fortifications are under-maintained and typically obsolete, and that’s if there are any forces to garrison them. Most available units have been posted to the Thrakesian offensive. As terrified refugees fly before the Army of Suffering, they spread panic and confusion.
Grammatikos is horrified when he receives news that a host is barreling down on Nicaea, which only has medieval fortifications with several large gaps, plus an urban militia of limited armament and even more limited training, to defend it. He tries to negotiate a truce with Andronikopulos, arguing that the Army of Suffering is just as much an enemy of Sophia as it is of Herakleios III.
That may be true but after the depredations in northern Thrakesia last year, the Thrakesian Strategos does not care. Anything that hurts the forces of Herakleios III is good; other problems can be dealt with later. Andronikopulos demands that Grammatikos not only withdraw from Thrakesia entirely (which is what Grammatikos seems to have expected) but that he cedes the entire Opsikian theme as well. These terms are absolutely ridiculous and probably meant to be rejected, which they are.
But this leaves Grammatikos still facing a dilemma. Having advanced to the gates of Smyrna through a tedious march and maneuver and seriously frustrated by Andronikopulos’s intransigence, he is loath to give that up. But he cannot leave his rear undefended. While his forces are concentrated in one mass, he has clear superiority over any foe in Anatolia not commanded by the Shah, but dividing it makes defeat in detail possible.
It is a gamble he elects to take. Half of the army will remain at Smyrna to continue the siege, supported by naval units. Given its weakened state, it is doubtful that the siege will be successfully prosecuted in the interim but it will prevent any progress from being lost and keep the Thrakesians occupied. The other half, under the command of Grammatikos, will march north to deal with the Army of Suffering.
Off topic but I’m thinking about how the current Rhomanian emperors are descended from Timur and how the OTL Mughal dynasty was descended from him. Any Siderot equivalents to the OTL Mughal emperors because of this?
Demetrios, younger brother of Heraklios III is currently in the northern India, so maybe that's gonna be a start of the new dynasty.
With the Army of Suffering moving on, does this give Theosteriktos an opportunity to move into the Anatolikon theme, or even to march west to aid Smyrna? Sounds like a great hammer and anvil opportunity, though not sure what kind of numbers he has. He'd clearly need to leave some behind as well.
Separate thought, this civil war seems to be fairly evenly matched and the result is much higher degrees of destruction for the empire. It feels like this has tended to be the case for Roman civil wars. Were there previous incidences where it was a bit more one sided and the whole thing got beyond the level of a coup, but did not turn into a protracted struggle?
Separate thought, this civil war seems to be fairly evenly matched and the result is much higher degrees of destruction for the empire. It feels like this has tended to be the case for Roman civil wars. Were there previous incidences where it was a bit more one sided and the whole thing got beyond the level of a coup, but did not turn into a protracted struggle?
What are the changes that Grammatikos severely underestimates the Army of Suffering & suffers serious enough losses to negate his advantage over Sophia-loyalist or loses entirely?
Are there any lingering effects of the brutal treatment of civilians around Smyrna? I know it caused issues last campaign season, but didn't see it mentioned this time around.
Rhomania's General Crisis, Part 18.1: Shall the Sword Devour Forever? Part 2
New
I didn't respond to some comments because they'll be covered in the update below.
Grammatikos marches hard but it is a long way from Smyrna to Nicaea, even on some of the best roads in the Empire. And he has been delayed by the failed negotiations with the Thrakesians and the subsequent pause when he decided how he should act. A few raids by Thrakesian cavalry don’t help, although Andronikopulos quickly shifts most of his energy against the forces remaining in his theme, rather than those exiting it.
These delays might not have been significant if Nicaea had defenses comparable to that of the typical border fortress on the western or eastern frontiers. But the last time Nicaea’s fortifications were substantially improved were with earthen redoubts piled up during the Time of Troubles and those have long since been allowed to erode away. (This is a major weakness of earthen fortifications, their brevity.) The extant fortification at Nicaea in 1663 predate the Black Death and these are no longer complete, with breaches punched in them to facilitate access as the early modern city expanded well beyond its medieval bounds.
Exactly what happens prior to the Army of Suffering’s attack on Nicaea is unclear. Accounts more sympathetic to the Anatolikon uprising claim that negotiations were proceeding well, with the city pledging to pay an admittedly hefty ransom in exchange for being left alone, when word arrived that Grammatikos was on his way with a relief force. With this, the Nicaeans reneged on their agreement.
In some versions, the Nicaeans compound this by treacherously murdering the envoys of the Army of Suffering who had been sent to negotiate the ransom, a group which includes Stefanos Karamanlis. Stefanos is the last of the ‘big three’ leaders of the Army of Suffering, an elderly cousin of the Grand Karaman. He had been instrumental in the formation of the Army of Suffering as an army, with long experience as a Roman drill dekarchos with turning farm boys into soldiers. Much of the cohesion and organization of the Army of Suffering, such as it is, is due to his person.
According to other accounts less sympathetic to the rebels, the ire of the rebels had only increased as they entered Bithynia. These lands were richer and more bountiful than what they were used to in Anatolikon, the sight only increasing their greed and rage at those who had hoarded such bounty. They were no mood to let Nicaea off; they wanted to sack and loot it most thoroughly. In these versions, Stefanos is killed by Nicaean defenders somewhere in the approach to the city, the details varying but all agreeing it was before the rebels had entered the city proper.
All agree on what happens next. Help was on the way but it was not fast enough, the Army of Suffering pouring over the paltry defenses and into the city. The rebels are condemned, then and now, for what follows, but by all the laws of war as they existed at the time, what follows is predictable. Cities that have to be stormed can expect, and are due, no mercy; that’s the incentive to surrender beforehand.
Nicaea in peacetime has around 100,000 inhabitants although in these circumstances the population has been swelled by refugees from the countryside, but historians dispute by how much. There is more consensus on the number slain, somewhere between twenty and thirty thousand. The worst carnage is on the shore of Lake Askania, where panicked city dwellers desperately seek out boats to escape. Some boatmen make huge sums of money by demanding exorbitant fees to take on passengers while other boats are swamped by too many people and capsizing. Very few can swim and it is reported that islands and coastal hills of corpses form in places before decomposition works them away.
Those who flee north on the Nikomedia road have better luck since the Army of Suffering hadn’t fully invested the city before attacking. Their attention moreover is focused on the opportunities for plunder. By Anatolikon standards, particularly those of these straitened years, Nicaea is incredibly well-stocked with all kinds of foodstuffs and the wine cellars are also in good condition as well. Also, by the standards of the poor Anatolikon peasantry, who can’t even afford a personal fork back home and have possibly never tasted any meat other than pigeon, if that, even mesoi Nicaean houses are incredibly well furnished. Even though they may have grown cotton, this is the first time most have had the chance to wear cotton clothes.
After five days of carnage, the Army of Suffering has mostly calmed down from the storm and sack, but that is not the end of the matter. Both Konon and the Grand Karaman show signs of depression. Both genuinely, particularly Konon, were interested in reweaving the fabric of Roman society but the Army of Suffering is not being the tool for that task they want it to be.
More immediately, a vengeful Grammatikos is now approaching. The Army of Suffering has not confronted a regular force of such size head-on and its earlier experiences confronting Theosterikteros at the Cilician Gates are not promising. If they fight around Nicaea, they risk being pinned against the city and destroyed. Furthermore, the rebel soldiers are interested in safeguarding their newly acquired plunder by transporting it home.
The Army of Suffering retreats from Nicaea seven days after the initial attack, its progress slowed by a massive baggage train of plunder from the city as well as the surrounding countryside. But for his part, Grammatikos is slowed by columns of refugees clogging the roads and seeking shelter behind his army, making it hard for him to move forward. As a result, despite some clashes between forward and rear units, the two forces never seriously engage before the Army of Suffering crosses back into the Anatolikon, with Grammatikos breaking off the pursuit.
He does that so he can immediately pivot and march hard west back the way he came; his gamble to try and keep his earlier gains in Thrakesia before the Army of Suffering invaded Bithynia has failed dramatically. Andronikopulos had massed men and guns and broken the siege of Smyrna, defeating the Constantinople-loyalist force again after it consolidated north of the city. They are now in full retreat, hotly pursued and harassed by Thrakesian units. Despite Andronikopulos’s best efforts he is unable to bring them to battle again before they can link up with Grammatikos, although he does snap up a decent amount of baggage, artillery, and over two thousand prisoners, many of them wounded left behind in the rush to keep moving.
What follows is another series of desultory marches and skirmishes which do little beyond tiring the soldiers and growing the casualty lists. Both sides are showing clear signs of demoralization. The movement of troops and refugees with the attendant disruption of trade and agriculture is causing food shortages and also spreading outbreaks of disease, including the dreaded plague. The shattered survivors of the sack of Nicaea are hit the hardest, with a comparable number dying of deprivation and disease over the rest of the year as were killed in the sack. But they are unique only in extent, not in concept. Western Anatolia, more geared toward producing for the market than for self-sufficiency, is more vulnerable to food shortages caused by disruption in trade.
Similar issues are present across all the Empire with almost no area being spared entirely. The coast of Hellas is hit repeatedly by naval raids while even Pontus is struck by Ottoman forays. Trying to defend the entire length of the Pontic mountains is a good way to be defeated in detail and while some are driven back, others break through. The coastal cities themselves can defend themselves and can rely on still-dependable Scythian imports for basic foodstuffs, but the countryside is more vulnerable. The inhabitants of Kerasous pay a hefty ransom to an Ottoman column to spare their valuable suburban market gardens and orchards from burning.
The situation in Syria is also degenerating into a series of raids, with the objective of plundering an often plague-wracked countryside rather than of changing the strategic situation. Troop and refugee movements are also spreading disease through Syria and then to Egypt. To make matters worse, the arid conditions of the Little Ice Age (more moisture locked up in ice) makes the 1663 Nile flood a devastatingly paltry one, hammering Egyptian agriculture, which has knock-on effects for areas of the Imperial heartland accustomed to being fed by Egyptian grain. In Crete, which only produces one-third of its cereal needs (growing wine is much more profitable), there are reports of cannibalism with a poem later saying ‘the flesh of a son was more welcome than his love’. [1]
The situation in Syria is still dangerous enough to Sophia-loyalists that Theosterikteros is forced to send many of his newest recruits to bolster the line against the Egyptians, denying him the reserves he feels he needs to push further into the Anatolikon. He had hoped to strike into the heart of Karamanid Isauria, possibly with the goal of sponsoring a new Grand Karaman by finding an ambitious cousin, but marching into that area without plentiful rear-echelon guards is an expensive but effective way to commit suicide.
The year 1663 is often taken as the nadir of the Roman General Crisis. While disease outbreaks and food shortfalls are nothing new, even without the Little Ice Age, the Little Ice Age and the War of Wrath sharply exacerbate their effects. To be accurate, years surrounding 1663, particularly the next couple, are probably comparable in terms of deaths from disease and deprivation. Yet the memory of those years is partly compensated with events of high drama and import, with things clearly moving toward resolution, while 1663 just feels mired. Theosterikteros’s inability to do anything in Anatolikon because of the need for damage control in Syria that year is an example of that malaise which only breaks the next year.
Both sides are looking for a way out, with some groups trying to find a way to a negotiated compromise. The most significant of these is an effort sponsored by the Patriarch of Russia who manages to get delegates to meet under his auspices in his palace in Kiev but even his august presence and earnest cajoling can get nowhere. The Tourmarches and Sophia have committed too much to be able to compromise; one must destroy the other.
But both sides are too evenly matched for any military victory to come quickly and cheaply. New weights must be added to the scales if the balance is to be tipped. Accusations of foreign collusion are already old hat in propaganda by this point, particularly that of Constantinople against Sophia, but with no basis in fact. Neither side has been willing to take that step. Yet now, as 1663 spirals toward its end, the unthinkable is looking more and more essential.
[1] The poetic quote is taken from a poem about a south Indian famine around this time IOTL.
I've been waiting for someone to notice that the Sideroi are effectively TTL's equivalent of Mughals in terms of relations to Timur. But I haven't been basing any characters off of OTL Mughals-no Greek Akbar for example.
There are lingering effects (northern Thrakesia is a right mess now) but they aren't as significant this time around.
* * *
Rhomania’s General Crisis, Part 18.1-Shall the Sword Devour Forever? Part 2:
Grammatikos marches hard but it is a long way from Smyrna to Nicaea, even on some of the best roads in the Empire. And he has been delayed by the failed negotiations with the Thrakesians and the subsequent pause when he decided how he should act. A few raids by Thrakesian cavalry don’t help, although Andronikopulos quickly shifts most of his energy against the forces remaining in his theme, rather than those exiting it.
These delays might not have been significant if Nicaea had defenses comparable to that of the typical border fortress on the western or eastern frontiers. But the last time Nicaea’s fortifications were substantially improved were with earthen redoubts piled up during the Time of Troubles and those have long since been allowed to erode away. (This is a major weakness of earthen fortifications, their brevity.) The extant fortification at Nicaea in 1663 predate the Black Death and these are no longer complete, with breaches punched in them to facilitate access as the early modern city expanded well beyond its medieval bounds.
Exactly what happens prior to the Army of Suffering’s attack on Nicaea is unclear. Accounts more sympathetic to the Anatolikon uprising claim that negotiations were proceeding well, with the city pledging to pay an admittedly hefty ransom in exchange for being left alone, when word arrived that Grammatikos was on his way with a relief force. With this, the Nicaeans reneged on their agreement.
In some versions, the Nicaeans compound this by treacherously murdering the envoys of the Army of Suffering who had been sent to negotiate the ransom, a group which includes Stefanos Karamanlis. Stefanos is the last of the ‘big three’ leaders of the Army of Suffering, an elderly cousin of the Grand Karaman. He had been instrumental in the formation of the Army of Suffering as an army, with long experience as a Roman drill dekarchos with turning farm boys into soldiers. Much of the cohesion and organization of the Army of Suffering, such as it is, is due to his person.
According to other accounts less sympathetic to the rebels, the ire of the rebels had only increased as they entered Bithynia. These lands were richer and more bountiful than what they were used to in Anatolikon, the sight only increasing their greed and rage at those who had hoarded such bounty. They were no mood to let Nicaea off; they wanted to sack and loot it most thoroughly. In these versions, Stefanos is killed by Nicaean defenders somewhere in the approach to the city, the details varying but all agreeing it was before the rebels had entered the city proper.
All agree on what happens next. Help was on the way but it was not fast enough, the Army of Suffering pouring over the paltry defenses and into the city. The rebels are condemned, then and now, for what follows, but by all the laws of war as they existed at the time, what follows is predictable. Cities that have to be stormed can expect, and are due, no mercy; that’s the incentive to surrender beforehand.
Nicaea in peacetime has around 100,000 inhabitants although in these circumstances the population has been swelled by refugees from the countryside, but historians dispute by how much. There is more consensus on the number slain, somewhere between twenty and thirty thousand. The worst carnage is on the shore of Lake Askania, where panicked city dwellers desperately seek out boats to escape. Some boatmen make huge sums of money by demanding exorbitant fees to take on passengers while other boats are swamped by too many people and capsizing. Very few can swim and it is reported that islands and coastal hills of corpses form in places before decomposition works them away.
Those who flee north on the Nikomedia road have better luck since the Army of Suffering hadn’t fully invested the city before attacking. Their attention moreover is focused on the opportunities for plunder. By Anatolikon standards, particularly those of these straitened years, Nicaea is incredibly well-stocked with all kinds of foodstuffs and the wine cellars are also in good condition as well. Also, by the standards of the poor Anatolikon peasantry, who can’t even afford a personal fork back home and have possibly never tasted any meat other than pigeon, if that, even mesoi Nicaean houses are incredibly well furnished. Even though they may have grown cotton, this is the first time most have had the chance to wear cotton clothes.
After five days of carnage, the Army of Suffering has mostly calmed down from the storm and sack, but that is not the end of the matter. Both Konon and the Grand Karaman show signs of depression. Both genuinely, particularly Konon, were interested in reweaving the fabric of Roman society but the Army of Suffering is not being the tool for that task they want it to be.
More immediately, a vengeful Grammatikos is now approaching. The Army of Suffering has not confronted a regular force of such size head-on and its earlier experiences confronting Theosterikteros at the Cilician Gates are not promising. If they fight around Nicaea, they risk being pinned against the city and destroyed. Furthermore, the rebel soldiers are interested in safeguarding their newly acquired plunder by transporting it home.
The Army of Suffering retreats from Nicaea seven days after the initial attack, its progress slowed by a massive baggage train of plunder from the city as well as the surrounding countryside. But for his part, Grammatikos is slowed by columns of refugees clogging the roads and seeking shelter behind his army, making it hard for him to move forward. As a result, despite some clashes between forward and rear units, the two forces never seriously engage before the Army of Suffering crosses back into the Anatolikon, with Grammatikos breaking off the pursuit.
He does that so he can immediately pivot and march hard west back the way he came; his gamble to try and keep his earlier gains in Thrakesia before the Army of Suffering invaded Bithynia has failed dramatically. Andronikopulos had massed men and guns and broken the siege of Smyrna, defeating the Constantinople-loyalist force again after it consolidated north of the city. They are now in full retreat, hotly pursued and harassed by Thrakesian units. Despite Andronikopulos’s best efforts he is unable to bring them to battle again before they can link up with Grammatikos, although he does snap up a decent amount of baggage, artillery, and over two thousand prisoners, many of them wounded left behind in the rush to keep moving.
What follows is another series of desultory marches and skirmishes which do little beyond tiring the soldiers and growing the casualty lists. Both sides are showing clear signs of demoralization. The movement of troops and refugees with the attendant disruption of trade and agriculture is causing food shortages and also spreading outbreaks of disease, including the dreaded plague. The shattered survivors of the sack of Nicaea are hit the hardest, with a comparable number dying of deprivation and disease over the rest of the year as were killed in the sack. But they are unique only in extent, not in concept. Western Anatolia, more geared toward producing for the market than for self-sufficiency, is more vulnerable to food shortages caused by disruption in trade.
Similar issues are present across all the Empire with almost no area being spared entirely. The coast of Hellas is hit repeatedly by naval raids while even Pontus is struck by Ottoman forays. Trying to defend the entire length of the Pontic mountains is a good way to be defeated in detail and while some are driven back, others break through. The coastal cities themselves can defend themselves and can rely on still-dependable Scythian imports for basic foodstuffs, but the countryside is more vulnerable. The inhabitants of Kerasous pay a hefty ransom to an Ottoman column to spare their valuable suburban market gardens and orchards from burning.
The situation in Syria is also degenerating into a series of raids, with the objective of plundering an often plague-wracked countryside rather than of changing the strategic situation. Troop and refugee movements are also spreading disease through Syria and then to Egypt. To make matters worse, the arid conditions of the Little Ice Age (more moisture locked up in ice) makes the 1663 Nile flood a devastatingly paltry one, hammering Egyptian agriculture, which has knock-on effects for areas of the Imperial heartland accustomed to being fed by Egyptian grain. In Crete, which only produces one-third of its cereal needs (growing wine is much more profitable), there are reports of cannibalism with a poem later saying ‘the flesh of a son was more welcome than his love’. [1]
The situation in Syria is still dangerous enough to Sophia-loyalists that Theosterikteros is forced to send many of his newest recruits to bolster the line against the Egyptians, denying him the reserves he feels he needs to push further into the Anatolikon. He had hoped to strike into the heart of Karamanid Isauria, possibly with the goal of sponsoring a new Grand Karaman by finding an ambitious cousin, but marching into that area without plentiful rear-echelon guards is an expensive but effective way to commit suicide.
The year 1663 is often taken as the nadir of the Roman General Crisis. While disease outbreaks and food shortfalls are nothing new, even without the Little Ice Age, the Little Ice Age and the War of Wrath sharply exacerbate their effects. To be accurate, years surrounding 1663, particularly the next couple, are probably comparable in terms of deaths from disease and deprivation. Yet the memory of those years is partly compensated with events of high drama and import, with things clearly moving toward resolution, while 1663 just feels mired. Theosterikteros’s inability to do anything in Anatolikon because of the need for damage control in Syria that year is an example of that malaise which only breaks the next year.
Both sides are looking for a way out, with some groups trying to find a way to a negotiated compromise. The most significant of these is an effort sponsored by the Patriarch of Russia who manages to get delegates to meet under his auspices in his palace in Kiev but even his august presence and earnest cajoling can get nowhere. The Tourmarches and Sophia have committed too much to be able to compromise; one must destroy the other.
But both sides are too evenly matched for any military victory to come quickly and cheaply. New weights must be added to the scales if the balance is to be tipped. Accusations of foreign collusion are already old hat in propaganda by this point, particularly that of Constantinople against Sophia, but with no basis in fact. Neither side has been willing to take that step. Yet now, as 1663 spirals toward its end, the unthinkable is looking more and more essential.
[1] The poetic quote is taken from a poem about a south Indian famine around this time IOTL.
pls don't ban me
Monthly Donor
it's either both sides reach a compromise, unlikely as the tourmaches are basically an oligarchy who seized the Basileus power
or one of the sides makes some sad agreement with a foreign nations. Sophia has the best cards i guess as she might be seen better from Iskandar and the Hungarians as well.
there is one thing i would like to remind. we have the Komnenes in Egypt who technically have one of the best claims to the throne.
This is how I read it as well. Gonna be hilarious if one side allies with Henri of the Triunes - maybe he gets Bengal back in exchange for some naval support to help Sophia clear the Aegean of loyalists?
I can't see anyone going that far. If there's help I would expect it to come from the Orthodox world. Russia clearly has an interest in seeing the general crisis end. I could see Georgia wanting to see Rome stabilize as the Ottomans keep poking around near their border.
pls don't ban me
Monthly Donor
i like how the entire idea of peaceful coexistence with ottomans ended in less then 30 years