An Age of Miracles III: The Romans Endure

Well, that's the thing, imperialism. Russia is just an adult girl full of ambitions just graduated from university, while Rhomania is like an old grandpa full of scars and on life support many times, 1 time outright dead, and imperialism is a big ego stroke. I bet the new Laskarid dynasty of Russia is very eager to flex muscles to test new Russian power from unification. First is for gaining prestige and glory to the family in order to appeal to boyars and Russians, second is about pride when their ancestors were restoring Roman Empire and they strive to be the founding fathers of the new Russia. Nothing is more perfect than military achievements like invading Baltic coast and Finland from Prussia and Scandinavia. In OTL Russia must ally with Poland-Lithuania, Prussia and Denmark-Norway to fight Sweden. But in this timeline Russia is much stronger so I think it will be the opposite; Prussia, Poland, and Scandinavia will ally to stop Russian imperialism because 6/6/6 Pyotr is inheriting a more functional and powerful Russia. The timeline now is at the second half of 17th century and Pyotr was born in 1672 in OTL so I expect he would appear soon. And boy, the Europe will not like it.
The thing about imperial Russia here is that it's government structure sets it up in a weird position. It's not a autocratic Tsar, but a more republican style government. If they conquer Poland and try to just annex it to one of the existing constituent provinces (I forget what they called here) you either have unrepresented Poles to maintain the Russian character of the province's delegation (which is going to create longstanding rebellious sentiment) or you need to give them representation (which would dilute the Russians representation in that province). The alternative is to add new provinces, but then you're trying to play the Rhoman game of convincing these people that, actually you are Russians, we all are. Not saying it can't be done, but in some ways it's easier to maintain control, when you're committed to stomping out any conquered cultures.
 
Iskandar seems to have de facto thrown his lot in with Sophia. I would not call them allies, but at the very least he will be an extraordinarily valuable co-belligerant for that side of the civil war. Good move on Sarantenos's part, and very big picture perspective too.
I agree and think it is now in the interest of both that Iskandar obscure that as much as possible. I expect being seen as Iskander's preferred candidate would be bad for Sophia.
 
The punches just keep on coming . :/ While Sarantenos' actions certainly help with the civil war seeing every gain and every victory erased time and time again is a bit disheartening.
 
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ces, but then you're trying to play the Rhoman game of convincing these people that, actually you are Russians, we all are. Not saying it can't be done, but in some ways it's easie
My idea is only Baltic coast and maybe bonus Finland because Novgorod used to lose the coast in the first Northern War if I remember correctly. I remember the reason why Novgorodians want to unite Russia because they want to take back the coast and settle scores with the Scandinavian.
 
I decided to make some maps for a possible modern Rome. I am not sure about the Eastern Border as i worked from the last published map. This is also made with shitty EU4 provinces. If you find any mistake in it, just say and I will fix it.
1. Greek Nationalism
Rome(4).png

All areas of the Empire to my knowledge that speak Greek or have a significant Greek population. If something like OTL Nationalism developed, it would look something like this, I find this unlikely as TTL developed differently as far as we can tell from OTL when it comes to the definition of a National Identity, but its too early to tell.
2. Orthodox Nationalism
Rome(3).png

This Rome is significantly larger, as the loyal Syrian and Italian Orthodox stay in the Empire, I wasnt sure about what percentage of Italy was Orthodox so for now I put this ratio. I find this a lot more likely, but it has the issue of losing its strenght once people start believing less, or the Emperor becoming less important, as he is a focal point of this kind of a Nationalism.
3. Orthodox Nationalism + Armenia
Rome(2).png

While that may sound contradictory, I dont see any scenario where the Armenians are persecuted or even shunned for their fate. They have been part of the Empire for so long, and occupy so many important positions that they are tied to the state. They are also a small minority that if really necessary can be kept even without their consent. They can also be given autonomy if it is needed.
4. Pan-Romanism
Rome(1).png
This one goes a bit of the rails, but it basically revolves around the idea that the Roman World can start a new unified identity. In this TL instead of Racism the Romans are Civilizationists? which basically means they judge peoples based on how advanced their civilization is. This can be turned around to make the Eastern Mediterranian into one unified civilization, and honestly who wouldnt want to be a part of Roman Civilization? Well maybe the Egyptians, but I do think that if they start being treated as equals and start feeling some kind of kinship with the Greeks, this isnt impossible. Maybe a massive war forces them to unify all their forces and forges this nation out of the flames of war?
5. The Catholics somehow agree?
Rome.png

I dont have much to say on this besides, while it would be cool, the Catholics seem really unlikely to suddenly feel Roman after Centuries of misstreatment. Rome could of course hold onto this hostile population, but it would be a drain for sure.
Either way let me know if something is wrong with any of them and I fix it.
Fixed: Malta and Venice where added
Thank you for reading either way.
 
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Cryostorm

Donor
Honestly, I would be content with #3, possibly with the Sinai unless Rome decides to make the Negev canal. Though you could probably flip #4 and #5, I am not sure if it's more likely for Egypt to stay compared to Neopolitan Italy, while it's more Catholic than Romania it's also less Catholic than the rest of Italy and I don't think it will ever be independent. Honestly, it probably has a better shot keeping it's uniqueness staying with Rome than joining a greater Italy.

That being said, I am rooting for 5, with Tunis and the rest of Libya/Tripolitana added.

Also, you missed Venice, the lagoon is completely Romanized at this point. Not sure who is going to end up with the Dalmatian coast that is currently a Roman vassal either.
 
I added Venice thanks
Yeah, both 4 and 5 is somewhat speculative, but I am of the opinion that Egypt can be more easily kept for several reasons.
1. More defensible: Italy can get invaded by anyone and Rome has trouble defending it.
2. People have claims on it: As in anyone that wants to unify Italy has to deal with them.
3. A hostile population: While Egypt isnt treated very well, it is miles better then whatever the hell the Catholics went through.
4. Strategic situation: For Egypt it is extremely lucrative to be Roman, for Italy it is much less vital.
About Dalmatia, honestly it looks very exposed and not particularily attached to Rome, but maybe I am wrong on that
 

Cryostorm

Donor
Also, I will say that this shows that Rhomania is always going to be a powerful nation that can't be ignored or easily pushed around. Even the reduced #1 map leaves Rhomania the #25 largest country by area, #12 by population, and #10 economy if those borders were applied to the OTL area. This of course doesn't account the synergy and multiplicative effects of Rhomania being united and actually at the upper edge of development.
 
Also, I will say that this shows that Rhomania is always going to be a powerful nation that can't be ignored or easily pushed around. Even the reduced #1 map leaves Rhomania the #25 largest country by area, #12 by population, and #10 economy if those borders were applied to the OTL area. This of course doesn't account the synergy and multiplicative effects of Rhomania being united and actually at the upper edge of development.
There is no way TTL Anatolia and Syria would have the same population. Why? Well at the risk of sounding very crass, OTL the land was inhabited by poor, underdeveloped muslims, while TTL it's inhabited by (comparatively) rich developed Christians
 
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I do';t think that Rhomania/The Romans will control directly any Italian territory in TTL 20th-21st century. However Southern Italy and Sicily will be controlled by a vassal of friendly state, with the same applying to Egypt. However I could see them controlling directly Cyrenaica. So I would choose #3 but with a different color for Southern Italy and Egypt (pink perhaps ) and some purple applied to Cyrenaica.
 
Ok what is this update? This essentially wiped out any sort of meaning from the entire effort by the Demetrios and his son. What exactly am I reading?

So basically your saying to me that the Persian boy who was the former ward basically got away with Mosul for free. Without consequences might I add.

The Egyptians the one who should have really been punished many years ago is back at being the proverbial backstabber that it was and will continue to get away scot free from any punishment.

The minorities essentially rolled back any sort of meaning from the Syrian campaign last thread.

I dunno if I feel disgusted with this update or not because all I'm seeing is failure upon failure. Compare it to the post-Andreas era I understood that the sort of thing will happen either way.

That’s history. It’s not guaranteed to be a triumphalist narrative. Many times, the gains of one generation are wiped out in the next.

It will be interesting to see how the future historians describe this. The Tourmachs were attempting to improve Rhomanian security and cost Rhomania Mosul and most of the gains of the preceding century. Will calling someone a Tourmach-wannabe be a deadly insult?

Probably not Tourmarch, because that’s an army rank so the military wouldn’t want that to become a dirty word. But ‘pulling a Plytos’ might be an expression for ‘wanting something, but then acting in such a way that makes it impossible to get said thing’.

I can already see the propaganda of the Tourmaches ; "Sophia is a traitor, she is giving away Roman land to foreigners, land that her family fought for " and Sophia's side replying "It is the Tourmaches that started this illegal war and we had to pay the price for it."
Err, not just illegal, but stupid as well. Voltaire's OTL quote may come early "It was worse than a crime, it was a blunder".

The propaganda angle is going to come up in future updates.

It’s kinda funny that the tourmaches who idolize Andreas niketas wanted to punish his direct line instead of trying to have his line replaced the current imperial family

It is ironic.

While these losses are bitter, I dont expect them to last. While Persia might be more relevant TTL than OTL, the fact remains that it doesnt have the proper resources to industrialise fast enough. I am also hoping for a bad Shah after they had generation after generation of great ones. This is the Persian Golden Age, its only down from here.

I doubt it, since I think it was said that this will be the last Roman-Persian war for a long time

This is, unless my plans massively change, to be the last Roman-Persian war, and I’d argue that these border cessions are necessary to make that the case. What the Romans are losing are border territories they seized from the Ottomans within the last 30 years. Which if they kept would be a continual bone of contention between the two powers.

What did you expect was going to happen? The Romans plunged themselves into a useless war with the Ottomans, ruining a peace deal beneficial to both sides due to the Tourmarches. Now that blood has been spilled (with Iskandar having a grievously injured son in the process), there's no way he's going to go back to the status quo.

If anything, the Romans should be relieved the Ottomans did not push all the way into Syria.


The latter narrative is likely to win out after the Civil War, but I assume the most likely factor will be due to historians criticizing the Tourmarches' performance in the conflict with the Ottomans, shifting the blame for the loss of Mosul from Sarantenos and the pro-Sophia faction.


Plus the land is probably going to go to Mesopotamia, bolstering its status as a buffer state between the Roman Empire and Ottoman Persia.


It depends on how politics play out between the Holy Roman Empire, Hungary, Russia, and Poland. Personally, I don't want a partitioned Poland, mainly because it's boring and I highly doubt the same factors that led to the partitions will happen in this timeline.


Fair enough.

Yeah, Iskandar could’ve demanded, and probably gotten, more concessions. He was in a much better bargaining position than Sarantenos. But he settled for getting the border provinces that the Romans had conquered from the Ottomans in the last 30 years, and stopped, because if he demanded more, he’d get away with it now, but then 15 years down the road would probably face a Roman counterattack wanted to take back their land. An equivalent that comes to my mind is if Khusrau II had just wanted to get back all the Sassanid territories ceded to the Romans in return for their help in the civil war that put Khusrau II on the throne, but no more and then stopped.

I don’t have any plans for partitions of Poland, and the geopolitical situation would have to change quite a bit to make those viable.

Turns out all the posting we (and I count myself among their number) did in these threads lamenting the losses to Iskander the Great and celebrating the gains by Odysseus/Iskander the Younger were for naught lol.

I understand Sarantenos's position here but if I fought at Nineveh or any of the other subsequent campaigns I'd be pissed. Good news for Team Sarantenos is that anyone who fought at Nineveh would be well into old age by now if not already deceased.

Interestingly, using the 1596 border effectively resets everything for both sides to zero, since that date is before both the Roman losses to Iskandar and the gains of recent decades. And Sarantenos is a veteran of those campaigns under Odysseus and Iskandar the Younger.

But Sarantenos will be doing a lot of ‘those stupid Tourmarches had to ruin everything. If they’d just not done anything I wouldn’t have been in a position to have to make those concessions’.

The Roman invading army was defeated, soundly at that. The Empire could have lost a lot more if Iskandar didn't have a lodge brotherhood with Sarantenos to stay his hand in Syria.

If I was in Iskander's shoes, that exactly what I would do. This may be a story of Rome but as stated before, they are not exactly the "good guys". Iskander's stock has risen quite a bit higher for me and I will be curious to see what happens when the dust is settled after this latest civil war.

Iskandar is thinking long-term, and wanting long-term peace. The Romans and Ottomans have been beating the crap out of each other since 1596, and not much to show for it. Iskandar wants what he thinks is rightfully his (the border provinces lost in the last 30 years), but at the same time doesn’t want to perpetuate this bloody cycle by then taking away what he considers rightfully belongs to the Romans. To put it in EU4 terms, he wants to rectify his ‘reconquest’ casus belli, but not then create one for the Romans against him.

Love Iskander, clearly has a good head on his shoulders with a keen sense for Realpolitik, and iirc has been engaging in alot of reforms in Iran. I wonder what the Persian/Mesopotamian relationship looks like after this, or what his specific plans for it are. Also nice to see at least a semblance of some positives happening for non Greeks in Syria, much more conducive for fostering loyalty to the state and actually developing the region.

I’ll be getting some more into that in an upcoming update. And I too think the improvement of things for the minorities in Syria is a good thing.

Iskandar seems to have de facto thrown his lot in with Sophia. I would not call them allies, but at the very least he will be an extraordinarily valuable co-belligerant for that side of the civil war. Good move on Sarantenos's part, and very big picture perspective too.
I agree and think it is now in the interest of both that Iskandar obscure that as much as possible. I expect being seen as Iskander's preferred candidate would be bad for Sophia.

They are definitely both co-belligerent, in the sense of ‘fighting the same foe’. But understandably both, particularly Sophia, want to make sure there is absolutely no official whiff of that.

The thing about imperial Russia here is that it's government structure sets it up in a weird position. It's not a autocratic Tsar, but a more republican style government. If they conquer Poland and try to just annex it to one of the existing constituent provinces (I forget what they called here) you either have unrepresented Poles to maintain the Russian character of the province's delegation (which is going to create longstanding rebellious sentiment) or you need to give them representation (which would dilute the Russians representation in that province). The alternative is to add new provinces, but then you're trying to play the Rhoman game of convincing these people that, actually you are Russians, we all are. Not saying it can't be done, but in some ways it's easier to maintain control, when you're committed to stomping out any conquered cultures.

The Russian ‘states’ are called Principalities, and earlier the Russians did scare the Scandinavians in their recent war into capitulating by threatening to make a ‘Principality of Finland’, whereby Finland would be conquered but enter the Russian Empire as a new principality, rather than directly controlled provinces. But you can’t do that very long if you want to keep the Russian Empire majority Russian.

The punches just keep on coming . :/ While Sarantenos' actions certainly help with the civil war seeing every gain and every victory erased time and time again is a bit disheartening.

I get that, but I also do think people focus too much on the fluctuation of border provinces and lose perspective. Rhomania still stretches from Vidin to Amida, so it’s still a powerful and large state.

@Raistarling: Maps look good. My main quibbles have to do with the limitations of using an EU4 map. Province borders being in the wrong place, each province only has one culture and one religion. Many areas, like eastern Anatolia and Syria, are highly mixed, which doesn’t lend itself to map presentations.

For example, central and eastern Anatolia is really a mix of Greek-Turkish-Armenian-Kurdish and some other elements, with the strengths and proportions of the various groups varying drastically. There might be different villages next to each other, mixed villages, a village of A surrounded by pastoralists of B… You get the picture. To put it in EU4 terms, the provinces here would have an ‘Anatolian’ culture, within the Roman cultural group, but distinct from ‘regular’ Greek.

Exactly how the creation of a broader Roman identity shakes out is undetermined, and I definitely don’t want to commit to anything. But I do think that non-Orthodox will be generally less willing to buy into this though. Even if religion becomes less polarizing, ‘cultural Orthodoxy’ can still be a thing much as ‘cultural Catholicism’ is, and that may play a role. The Armenians are a special case here though. Their relationship with Rhomania is much longer and they’re interspersed amongst ‘regular Romans’, in contrast to the likes of the Italian Catholics, Copts, and Syrian minorities, which are concentrated in peripheral areas that they dominate locally. In such contexts it is much easier for them to develop and sustain local identities.

There is no way TTL Anatolia and Syria would have the same population. Why? Well at the risk of sounding very crass, OTL the land was inhabited by poor, underdeveloped muslims, while TTL it's inhabited by (comparatively) rich developed Christians

I would add the very important caveat that the religious difference here is irrelevant. It’s the level of economic development that matters. A richer, more developed society that does the demographic transition earlier is going to have a very different population from OTL.

And I plan for TTL population figures to be quite different from OTL already. I still want the human population to top out at, say, 5.5 billion.
 
And I plan for TTL population figures to be quite different from OTL already. I still want the human population to top out at, say, 5.5 billion.
I know you spoke before that you want Rhomania's demographics to sort of mimic the French in the 19th century, but will it be as extreme? From 1871 to 1911 the French population grew only 9% compared to 60% increase in Germany and 50% in the UK. But one of the main causes of French demographic stagnation in that time period, and post 1815 in general were the Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars. So, is some form of analogue to the Revolution and Napoleon planned in the future, only coming from Rhomania TTL? Some kind of a devastating pan European war in early 19th century?
 
Rhomania's General Crisis, Part 14.1: They Will Not Pass
I know you spoke before that you want Rhomania's demographics to sort of mimic the French in the 19th century, but will it be as extreme? From 1871 to 1911 the French population grew only 9% compared to 60% increase in Germany and 50% in the UK. But one of the main causes of French demographic stagnation in that time period, and post 1815 in general were the Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars. So, is some form of analogue to the Revolution and Napoleon planned in the future, only coming from Rhomania TTL? Some kind of a devastating pan European war in early 19th century?
I'm not sure. I don't have plans for a French Revolution analog. With Rhomania, I'm thinking more of economic shifts. If more of the countryside is populated with richer smallholders who generally have less children than poorer peasants, and who practice birth control to limit partible inheritance issues, that's going to cause population growth rates to go down. (And this is one argument I've seen for French demographics in the 1800s, although I can't remember the reference.)


Rhomania’s General Crisis, part 14.1-They Will Not Pass:

Although the comparisons to Baghdad were common at the time, the siege of Smyrna took on more of the character of a standard siege. Baghdad had been a long-duration urban battle, while the defenders of Smyrna were able to prepare a more regular defense. The mostly earthen wall was ugly and crude, and certainly would get eroded quickly by the weather, but it managed to cover the whole city, and that it probably wouldn’t last more than 5-10 years was not an important drawback at the moment.

Some parts of the wall were constructed by more durable materials, stripped from the suburbs. Structures outside the walls that could give cover and shelter to the enemy were razed, and in some cases even groves of trees fell to this cause, although there was not enough time to complete this last aspect. Given the long years of peace Smyrna had enjoyed, this entailed a great deal of destruction, and even with the very clear and bloody threat Nereas posed there were many bitter recriminations over destruction of property and inadequate compensation.

Once Nereas arrived in force, he launched an attack, perhaps hoping that the crude fortifications and absolute greenness of most of the defenders would enable him to carry the day. It didn’t, but the limited scale of the attack suggests he hadn’t been too confident of success. It was worth a try, but not worth trying to push too hard.

This repulse encourages the defenders and soon gives rise to the famous phrase ‘They will not pass’, which quickly becomes a popular slogan among forces loyal to Sophia. A few weeks later it also inspires one of the most famous cartoons in Roman history. In the first panel, a waiter serves Nereas a dish of ‘Macedonian meatballs’, a reference to Sophia’s mother Athena and her actions during the siege of Thessaloniki. In the second, Nereas is hunched over a toilet, his face strained, as he cries out ‘they will not pass!’

There is another layer to this propaganda. Constipation is a feature commonly associated with northern Europeans by Romans (often blamed on their ‘beer and butter’ diet). One of the most frequent propaganda trends taken by Constantinople is to portray Sophia and her supporters as in cahoots with foreigners, the real reason for their treachery. This cartoon subtly flips that foreign association and sends it the other way.

The good spirits of the city defenders then begin to cause problems. Many of said defenders are young men from the city and countryside, eager for revenge and with a formidable-looking D3 musket in their hands. They feel powerful and dangerous and want to smite these monsters at their gates. They want to sally out and attack Nereas in his siege lines.

The Thrakesian Strategos Basil Andronikopulos is unimpressed. He doesn’t expect their ardor to last very long under artillery fire in the open and wants to keep them behind the fortifications, where they can be more effective. But this mentality only embitters many of the defenders against the Strategos, who feel their courage is being impugned. Some, noting that the Tourmarches of Constantinople are all military officers, and that the Strategos is also a military officer, argue that Andronikopulos’s attitude is really treasonous.

With these accusations, the Strategos agrees to allow a sally, but only with volunteers, and he won’t commit any of his very limited supply of regulars to the attack. The sally is launched on June 23, the sixth day of the siege, aiming towards the south. The siege positions here are newer and less developed, and if successful could open a way for reinforcements and supplies to come from southern Thrakesia, which hasn’t been occupied by Nereas’s forces.

Initially the sally seems to be a brilliant success. Resistance is light, with the enemy soldiers retreating before them. Andronikopulos, watching intently from the battlements, is suspicious at the ease of the advance, and then he sees movement on the flanks that confirm his fears. He immediately sends word ordering the attackers to fall back to the city. The attackers receive the order in utter disbelief. To them, it makes no sense unless the Strategos really is treacherous and trying to ruin their plans. They ignore the order.

Nereas hits the sally forces from both flanks and front nearly simultaneously. The ardor of the volunteers for battle, once faced with the actual thing, especially in such poor circumstances, almost immediately breaks. They are ‘rolled up like a cheap carpet’ in the words of one observer, chased back to the ramparts. The remnants are only rescued, and Nereas prevented from breaking in during the confusion, by a prompt sally of the regulars which Andronikopulos had prepared for just such an eventuality. The casualties for the Smyrna defenders are over thirteen hundred; Nereas counts twenty-two.

The sharp defeat leads to more recriminations inside the city, with many choosing to blame Andronikopulos. He should’ve done more to support the sally with regulars, or he should have warned the volunteers of what would happen. The Strategos coolly replies to the latter criticism that he had, which is why he had been against the operation in the first place. This is absolutely true, with documentary evidence to prove it, which only infuriates his accusers even more, even as they continue to make the charge.

Far-sighted local officials and priests are able to calm the atmosphere somewhat, reminding everyone that Nereas is outside and a grave threat to all of them. But the bad blood still remains and undoubtedly contributes to the rather passive defense displayed by the defenders from that point forward. For his part, Nereas proceeds methodically and cautiously. Smyrna seems doomed, so there is no reason to waste the lives of his men rushing an inevitability, while southern Thrakesia also needs to be pacified.

If left to its own devices, Smyrna certainly would be doomed. Despite the spectacular harassments of Kanaris and Kalomeros, the fleet loyal to Constantinople has overall command of the sea, blockading the harbor and providing valuable logistical support to Nereas. Attempts to organize relief in southern Thrakesia are hampered by a lack of trained men, good war material, and the operations of flying columns from Nereas’s main force. On June 26, one column falls on a contingent of new Thrakesian recruits and cuts them to pieces, despite a 5-to-2 disadvantage in numbers.

Salvation, if it will come, must come from the east. Everyone in Thrakesia knows this, and everyone looks that way, either in hope or concern. But Aleppo is 1200 kilometers from Smyrna, even if the road is clear, which it is not. Hence why Nereas does not feel rushed.

In 995, the Emperor Basil II had been in Constantinople when word reached him of a disaster suffered by Roman forces on the Syrian frontier against the Fatimids. In response, he rushed out with a large army. Only a fraction of the army actually managed to keep pace with the forced march all the way through Anatolia, but the speed of the Emperor’s arrival was shock enough for the Fatimids, and the situation was restored for the Romans.

Sarantenos plans something similar. Even before the garrisons from the lands ceded to the Ottomans have been fully vacated, he is marching west with all available forces at a blistering pace for the period. He had met with Iskandar on May 31. He signed the Accord of Antioch with the minority leaders on June 6. He leaves Aleppo bound for Smyrna on June 10, a week before Nereas arrives at the great Thrakesian port.

The Army of Suffering, still battering with little luck at the Cilician Gates, scatters at his approach. The rebels think they are the target and the Syrian army has a significant advantage in numbers, equipment, and discipline. But they are not; they are something that is in the way and needs to be ignored as much as possible. Stopping to engage the Army of Suffering, even in a cursory way, would take time that Sarantenos feels he just does not have.

The pace is grueling, with stragglers constantly falling out. Slowing down or taking time to corral them back into the main formations would, again, take time that Sarantenos feels he does not have. As far as he knows, Smyrna could fall and Thrakesia be overrun at any moment, and if that happens the cause of those who oppose the Tourmarches is almost certainly doomed. Thrakesia is the richest and most populous theme of the Empire; it cannot be lost.

The Army of Suffering, after the humiliation at the Gates, regroups quickly once the rebels realize they are not being seriously pursued. They engage in harassing warfare, picking at the Army of Syria, a style of warfare much more comfortable for the Karamanids and tough peasant recruits, used to hunting and herding but not to standing on a battle line. The many stragglers caused by the Syrians’ furious pace are a fruitful target. Sarantenos finds this infuriating, but it is a terrible price that must be paid. In these circumstances, time is more precious than blood.

On July 10, the Army of Syria is approaching Sardis, the ancient capital of Lydia, in central Thrakesia. It has marched over a thousand kilometers in thirty days, but at a steep price. It numbers slightly over twelve thousand strong, a third of what it had been in Aleppo, the other two-thirds having fallen behind. (It is estimated that roughly seven thousand stragglers are killed by the Army of Suffering, with the balance eventually coalescing back either in Syria or eastern Thrakesia.)

They have no artillery and the troops are exhausted and hungry, although the latter issue is improving thanks to the generosity of the locals, delirious at seeing the hoped-for relief. Unit cohesion is also shaky, since the stragglers fell out mostly as individuals, not as units, so there are many more tourmai, all badly understrength, present than one would expect from sheer numbers.

(The Army of Suffering, for its part, has gotten a substantial boost. Morale has improved from ‘defeating’ the Army of Syria, encouraging new recruits, and some of the equipment issues have been solved by captures from stragglers.)

And they still have to defeat Nereas. Reinforcements, albeit green ones, are gathering in southern Thrakesia that can be of support, and there is the possibility of coordinating with the Smyrna garrison. But first Sarantenos has to get there, and there is a blocking force in the way specifically to prevent that. The force is barely more than a third in size of the Army of Syria in its current state, but it is rested, dug in, has a full artillery contingent for its size, and could call on Nereas’s main army around Smyrna for aid to make up for the numerical shortfall. It is the Akoimetoi guard tagma under Strategos Gyranos.
 
And they still have to defeat Nereas. Reinforcements, albeit green ones, are gathering in southern Thrakesia that can be of support, and there is the possibility of coordinating with the Smyrna garrison. But first Sarantenos has to get there, and there is a blocking force in the way specifically to prevent that. The force is barely more than a third in size of the Army of Syria in its current state, but it is rested, dug in, has a full artillery contingent for its size, and could call on Nereas’s main army around Smyrna for aid to make up for the numerical shortfall. It is the Akoimetoi guard tagma under Strategos Gyranos.
I wonder just when Sarantenos found out about this and what if anything he has done about it. Perhaps send a few agents and messages to Constantinople?
 
I feel Gyranos will turn on Constantinople, perhaps following the example of the end of the War of Five Emperors.

A weak possibility since his opponent just gave up land to the Ottomans, but still.
 
Hope Gyranos switches sides but I'm feeling not too good about it since I believe it was teasered that his ideas on education or equality or something like that would be discredited due to his association with the Tourmaches.

I feel like dying to defend a lost cause you don't believe in would fit Gyranos somewhat, giving him a very tragic journey.
 
(It is estimated that roughly seven thousand stragglers are killed by the Army of Suffering, with the balance eventually coalescing back either in Syria or eastern Thrakesia.)
7000 killed is an insanely high number, what's the total casualty? Could be easily half the Army of Syria out of commission for the time being.

(The Army of Suffering, for its part, has gotten a substantial boost. Morale has improved from ‘defeating’ the Army of Syria, encouraging new recruits, and some of the equipment issues have been solved by captures from stragglers.)
Really does sound like even if Team Sophia comes out on top, they won't be able to get back to Syria to prevent the Egyptians from rolling over the Levant provinces.
 
Egypt may have to be dealt with after Constantinople is taken.
I don't see how Egypt could hold Syria long term unless they fully rebel and give up their status within the empire, assuming a Sophia victory. Actually in a Sophia victory I see confirming the privileges they were promised as a bloodless way to send them back home. Otherwise, all of Rome comes down on them when it's over and you can bet they'll be punished.
 
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