I know you spoke before that you want Rhomania's demographics to sort of mimic the French in the 19th century, but will it be as extreme? From 1871 to 1911 the French population grew only 9% compared to 60% increase in Germany and 50% in the UK. But one of the main causes of French demographic stagnation in that time period, and post 1815 in general were the Revolutionary and Napoleonic wars. So, is some form of analogue to the Revolution and Napoleon planned in the future, only coming from Rhomania TTL? Some kind of a devastating pan European war in early 19th century?
I'm not sure. I don't have plans for a French Revolution analog. With Rhomania, I'm thinking more of economic shifts. If more of the countryside is populated with richer smallholders who generally have less children than poorer peasants, and who practice birth control to limit partible inheritance issues, that's going to cause population growth rates to go down. (And this is one argument I've seen for French demographics in the 1800s, although I can't remember the reference.)
Rhomania’s General Crisis, part 14.1-They Will Not Pass:
Although the comparisons to Baghdad were common at the time, the siege of Smyrna took on more of the character of a standard siege. Baghdad had been a long-duration urban battle, while the defenders of Smyrna were able to prepare a more regular defense. The mostly earthen wall was ugly and crude, and certainly would get eroded quickly by the weather, but it managed to cover the whole city, and that it probably wouldn’t last more than 5-10 years was not an important drawback at the moment.
Some parts of the wall were constructed by more durable materials, stripped from the suburbs. Structures outside the walls that could give cover and shelter to the enemy were razed, and in some cases even groves of trees fell to this cause, although there was not enough time to complete this last aspect. Given the long years of peace Smyrna had enjoyed, this entailed a great deal of destruction, and even with the very clear and bloody threat Nereas posed there were many bitter recriminations over destruction of property and inadequate compensation.
Once Nereas arrived in force, he launched an attack, perhaps hoping that the crude fortifications and absolute greenness of most of the defenders would enable him to carry the day. It didn’t, but the limited scale of the attack suggests he hadn’t been too confident of success. It was worth a try, but not worth trying to push too hard.
This repulse encourages the defenders and soon gives rise to the famous phrase ‘They will not pass’, which quickly becomes a popular slogan among forces loyal to Sophia. A few weeks later it also inspires one of the most famous cartoons in Roman history. In the first panel, a waiter serves Nereas a dish of ‘Macedonian meatballs’, a reference to Sophia’s mother Athena and her actions during the siege of Thessaloniki. In the second, Nereas is hunched over a toilet, his face strained, as he cries out ‘they will not pass!’
There is another layer to this propaganda. Constipation is a feature commonly associated with northern Europeans by Romans (often blamed on their ‘beer and butter’ diet). One of the most frequent propaganda trends taken by Constantinople is to portray Sophia and her supporters as in cahoots with foreigners, the real reason for their treachery. This cartoon subtly flips that foreign association and sends it the other way.
The good spirits of the city defenders then begin to cause problems. Many of said defenders are young men from the city and countryside, eager for revenge and with a formidable-looking D3 musket in their hands. They feel powerful and dangerous and want to smite these monsters at their gates. They want to sally out and attack Nereas in his siege lines.
The Thrakesian Strategos Basil Andronikopulos is unimpressed. He doesn’t expect their ardor to last very long under artillery fire in the open and wants to keep them behind the fortifications, where they can be more effective. But this mentality only embitters many of the defenders against the Strategos, who feel their courage is being impugned. Some, noting that the Tourmarches of Constantinople are all military officers, and that the Strategos is also a military officer, argue that Andronikopulos’s attitude is really treasonous.
With these accusations, the Strategos agrees to allow a sally, but only with volunteers, and he won’t commit any of his very limited supply of regulars to the attack. The sally is launched on June 23, the sixth day of the siege, aiming towards the south. The siege positions here are newer and less developed, and if successful could open a way for reinforcements and supplies to come from southern Thrakesia, which hasn’t been occupied by Nereas’s forces.
Initially the sally seems to be a brilliant success. Resistance is light, with the enemy soldiers retreating before them. Andronikopulos, watching intently from the battlements, is suspicious at the ease of the advance, and then he sees movement on the flanks that confirm his fears. He immediately sends word ordering the attackers to fall back to the city. The attackers receive the order in utter disbelief. To them, it makes no sense unless the Strategos really is treacherous and trying to ruin their plans. They ignore the order.
Nereas hits the sally forces from both flanks and front nearly simultaneously. The ardor of the volunteers for battle, once faced with the actual thing, especially in such poor circumstances, almost immediately breaks. They are ‘rolled up like a cheap carpet’ in the words of one observer, chased back to the ramparts. The remnants are only rescued, and Nereas prevented from breaking in during the confusion, by a prompt sally of the regulars which Andronikopulos had prepared for just such an eventuality. The casualties for the Smyrna defenders are over thirteen hundred; Nereas counts twenty-two.
The sharp defeat leads to more recriminations inside the city, with many choosing to blame Andronikopulos. He should’ve done more to support the sally with regulars, or he should have warned the volunteers of what would happen. The Strategos coolly replies to the latter criticism that he had, which is why he had been against the operation in the first place. This is absolutely true, with documentary evidence to prove it, which only infuriates his accusers even more, even as they continue to make the charge.
Far-sighted local officials and priests are able to calm the atmosphere somewhat, reminding everyone that Nereas is outside and a grave threat to all of them. But the bad blood still remains and undoubtedly contributes to the rather passive defense displayed by the defenders from that point forward. For his part, Nereas proceeds methodically and cautiously. Smyrna seems doomed, so there is no reason to waste the lives of his men rushing an inevitability, while southern Thrakesia also needs to be pacified.
If left to its own devices, Smyrna certainly would be doomed. Despite the spectacular harassments of Kanaris and Kalomeros, the fleet loyal to Constantinople has overall command of the sea, blockading the harbor and providing valuable logistical support to Nereas. Attempts to organize relief in southern Thrakesia are hampered by a lack of trained men, good war material, and the operations of flying columns from Nereas’s main force. On June 26, one column falls on a contingent of new Thrakesian recruits and cuts them to pieces, despite a 5-to-2 disadvantage in numbers.
Salvation, if it will come, must come from the east. Everyone in Thrakesia knows this, and everyone looks that way, either in hope or concern. But Aleppo is 1200 kilometers from Smyrna, even if the road is clear, which it is not. Hence why Nereas does not feel rushed.
In 995, the Emperor Basil II had been in Constantinople when word reached him of a disaster suffered by Roman forces on the Syrian frontier against the Fatimids. In response, he rushed out with a large army. Only a fraction of the army actually managed to keep pace with the forced march all the way through Anatolia, but the speed of the Emperor’s arrival was shock enough for the Fatimids, and the situation was restored for the Romans.
Sarantenos plans something similar. Even before the garrisons from the lands ceded to the Ottomans have been fully vacated, he is marching west with all available forces at a blistering pace for the period. He had met with Iskandar on May 31. He signed the Accord of Antioch with the minority leaders on June 6. He leaves Aleppo bound for Smyrna on June 10, a week before Nereas arrives at the great Thrakesian port.
The Army of Suffering, still battering with little luck at the Cilician Gates, scatters at his approach. The rebels think they are the target and the Syrian army has a significant advantage in numbers, equipment, and discipline. But they are not; they are something that is in the way and needs to be ignored as much as possible. Stopping to engage the Army of Suffering, even in a cursory way, would take time that Sarantenos feels he just does not have.
The pace is grueling, with stragglers constantly falling out. Slowing down or taking time to corral them back into the main formations would, again, take time that Sarantenos feels he does not have. As far as he knows, Smyrna could fall and Thrakesia be overrun at any moment, and if that happens the cause of those who oppose the Tourmarches is almost certainly doomed. Thrakesia is the richest and most populous theme of the Empire; it cannot be lost.
The Army of Suffering, after the humiliation at the Gates, regroups quickly once the rebels realize they are not being seriously pursued. They engage in harassing warfare, picking at the Army of Syria, a style of warfare much more comfortable for the Karamanids and tough peasant recruits, used to hunting and herding but not to standing on a battle line. The many stragglers caused by the Syrians’ furious pace are a fruitful target. Sarantenos finds this infuriating, but it is a terrible price that must be paid. In these circumstances, time is more precious than blood.
On July 10, the Army of Syria is approaching Sardis, the ancient capital of Lydia, in central Thrakesia. It has marched over a thousand kilometers in thirty days, but at a steep price. It numbers slightly over twelve thousand strong, a third of what it had been in Aleppo, the other two-thirds having fallen behind. (It is estimated that roughly seven thousand stragglers are killed by the Army of Suffering, with the balance eventually coalescing back either in Syria or eastern Thrakesia.)
They have no artillery and the troops are exhausted and hungry, although the latter issue is improving thanks to the generosity of the locals, delirious at seeing the hoped-for relief. Unit cohesion is also shaky, since the stragglers fell out mostly as individuals, not as units, so there are many more tourmai, all badly understrength, present than one would expect from sheer numbers.
(The Army of Suffering, for its part, has gotten a substantial boost. Morale has improved from ‘defeating’ the Army of Syria, encouraging new recruits, and some of the equipment issues have been solved by captures from stragglers.)
And they still have to defeat Nereas. Reinforcements, albeit green ones, are gathering in southern Thrakesia that can be of support, and there is the possibility of coordinating with the Smyrna garrison. But first Sarantenos has to get there, and there is a blocking force in the way specifically to prevent that. The force is barely more than a third in size of the Army of Syria in its current state, but it is rested, dug in, has a full artillery contingent for its size, and could call on Nereas’s main army around Smyrna for aid to make up for the numerical shortfall. It is the Akoimetoi guard tagma under Strategos Gyranos.