American response to a Soviet invasion of Iran?

El_Presidente

El_Presidente

So, the scenario is an invasion of Iran by the Soviets under the pretense of enforcing the Article 5 of the Soviet-Persian Treaty of Friendship of 192, together with Iraq in 1980. Given the sorry state of the Iranian Armed Forces let's assume that the Sovs trash their way to the Strait of Hormuz, with Spetsnaz liberating the American hostages held in Teheran the night before the assault.
Now, I know about the Carter Doctrine but I can't see any course of action that wouldn't be seen as supporting the extremists that held American citizens hostage. Obviously some action would be taken, but what could the US do that isn't seen as helping the Iranians but also stops the Soviets from getting to Hormuz?
 

Napoleon IV

Why would the Soviets invade Iran in 1980? They're already in Afghanistan, and due in large part to this the Soviets decided to forgo invading Poland during the 1980-1981 crisis. The same logic applies here: the Soviets can't risk increased enmity with the West (and the sanctions that would follow), and they don't want to risk having to fight an insurgency. It's way better for the Soviets to let the Iraqis fight it out.
 
El_Presidente

El_Presidente

Napoleon IV said:
Why would the Soviets invade Iran in 1980? They're already in Afghanistan, and due in large part to this the Soviets decided to forgo invading Poland during the 1980-1981 crisis. The same logic applies here: the Soviets can't risk increased enmity with the West (and the sanctions that would follow), and they don't want to risk having to fight an insurgency. It's way better for the Soviets to let the Iraqis fight it out.
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Well, invading Iran it's a risky gamble, but one that could give enormous benefits. Some of them would be:
  • Reafirming their alliance with Saddam. Now the Sovs control a rather large share of the global oil production, and can subsequently set the price they want.
  • Control of the Strait of Hormuz, the bottleneck through which almost all of the oil exports to the West go. Now they control the oil exports of the gulf monarchies too (until an oleoduct is built).
  • Elimination of an hostile regime that could inspire insurrection in the muslim SSR
  • Elimination of one of the supporters of the Afghan Mujahideens.
  • A warm water port.
See, it's very risky, and if done any other time it would surely cause WW3. But with the american hostages in Teheran and the general consensus that the new government are a bunch of fanatics that do no good to the world there's a window of opportunity.
Obviously some reaction would come from the West, but which one would that be?
 
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SsgtC

SsgtC

Banned
So, crackpot theory here. What if the US launches an invasion of their own to counter the Soviet invasion? I know, ASB. But what if? Could Carter (unilaterally) spin it as the US and USSR joining forces to eradicate a clear and present danger to world stability? Like I said, it's a crackpot idea, but could be an interesting timeline to explore
 
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sloreck

IMHO the USA is not going to allow the USSR to get the oil resources of Iran and at the same time control the eastern half of the Strait of Hormuz, giving them the ability to choke of Gulf oil whenever they choose to do so. Europe and Japan aren't going to like this either. Afghanistan aside, the USSR knows the USA/NATO would have no choice but to respond, and it would take the USSR some time to get down to the oil areas of Iran, mostly well in the southern part of the country so the US/NATO would have time to take action.
 

Dunning Kruger

SsgtC said:
So, crackpot theory here. What if the US launches an invasion of their own to counter the Soviet invasion? I know, ASB. But what if? Could Carter (unilaterally) spin it as the US and USSR joining forces to eradicate a clear and present danger to world stability? Like I said, it's a crackpot idea, but could be an interesting timeline to explore
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Crackpot? That's my assumption of what happens. The 82nd Airborne and an MEU are in Bandar Abbas and Bandar Bushehr ASAP. But they're not joining forces as much as involved in a war against each other fought on mutually hostile territory.
 
SsgtC

SsgtC

Banned
Dunning Kruger said:
Crackpot? That's my assumption of what happens. The 82nd Airborne and an MEU are in Bandar Abbas and Bandar Bushehr ASAP. But they're not joining forces as much as involved in a war against each other fought on mutually hostile territory.
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They wouldn't technically join forces. But would the White House try to spin it that way to preempt any Soviet denounciations? This way, if the USSR and USA do end up directly fighting, the US can claim it was a "stab in the back"
 

Ak-84

Banned
The Americans will
1)Seize the Iranian coast and oil producing regions.
2) Call Islamabad and say “yeah, let’s cut the pretence, we know you are making nukes, pls send over some your scientists to the US, ASAP, we’ll teach them how to make it better and faster.”.
3) Call a meeting of all Islamic countries and have the USSR declared the enemy of all Muslims.
4)Profit???
 
FieldMarshal

FieldMarshal

Banned
The Red said:
Was it that clear? If memory serves there's a mention of an Iranian crisis and American and Soviet forces clashing but it seems a bit vague as to how it actually started.
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It’s pretty clear - we’re shown the news broadcasts. First a coup topples the theocracy (the same radio broadcast we hear this from implies Iran had earlier collapsed into civil war). The Russians invade to prevent the installation of a pro-American government, prompting the US to deploy forces to secure the southern oil fields. A US submarine is lost under mysterious circumstances in the Persian Gulf, with the implication being that the Russians sunk it. The Soviets move tactical nukes into Iran in response to the American deployment. The US sets a deadline for a mutual withdrawal from Iran - when that deadline expires, B-52s attack the primary Soviet base in Iran. The Russians retaliate with a nuclear SAM, and it’s all downhill from there
 
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SsgtC

SsgtC

Banned
Ak-84 said:
2) Call Islamabad and say “yeah, let’s cut the pretence, we know you are making nukes, pls send over some your scientists to the US, ASAP, we’ll teach them how to make it better and faster.”.
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Way to big a risk of being exposed for violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty. I'm thinking more along the lines of Empty Quiver. A plane carrying a nuke is "lost" over Pakistan after "mechanical difficulties." The crew was rescued by the Pakistanis, but, unfortunately, the aircraft and it's cargo were completely destroyed. Oh, and did I mention this particular aircraft was also carrying a complete set of designs for the weapon?
 

ASUKIRIK

Banned
SsgtC said:
So, crackpot theory here. What if the US launches an invasion of their own to counter the Soviet invasion? I know, ASB. But what if? Could Carter (unilaterally) spin it as the US and USSR joining forces to eradicate a clear and present danger to world stability? Like I said, it's a crackpot idea, but could be an interesting timeline to explore
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As Soviet - Iraq alliance invading from the West, North, and North East of Iran. US would deploy invasion force from Pakistan and Via Saudi ports to seize the coastal areas first.

Of course there will be spoken agreement with Soviet Union to pretend this invasion is joint Soviet-American operation all along. With America actually giving minor concessions to Soviet in this regard.

an even crazier thing :
Backdoor politics marry son of Saddam Hussein (preferably Qussay) into a Pahlevi Princess and agree with Saddam to made his son into the Next Shah of Persia. Saddam would definitely jump ship and become America's best buddy.
 

Ak-84

Banned
SsgtC said:
Way to big a risk of being exposed for violating the Non-Proliferation Treaty. I'm thinking more along the lines of Empty Quiver. A plane carrying a nuke is "lost" over Pakistan after "mechanical difficulties." The crew was rescued by the Pakistanis, but, unfortunately, the aircraft and it's cargo were completely destroyed. Oh, and did I mention this particular aircraft was also carrying a complete set of designs for the weapon?
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Tsk, tsk. The US military really needs to beef up its security. In addition to what you wrote, a week earlier extensive documents for uranium enrichment plants were accidentally mailed to the Pakistani embassy. And the a USN civilian cargo ship calling at Karachi while carrying equipment for Bahrain. was found to be carrying drugs, and impounded. Worse, before they sailed accidentally also loaded Pershing missile documentation and a few samples rockets, meat for W Germany. I mean wrong fucking coast!
 
SsgtC

SsgtC

Banned
Ak-84 said:
Tsk, tsk. The US military really needs to beef up its security. In addition to what you wrote, a week earlier extensive documents for uranium enrichment plants were accidentally mailed to the Pakistani embassy. And the a USN civilian cargo ship calling at Karachi while carrying equipment for Bahrain. was found to be carrying drugs, and impounded. Worse, before they sailed accidentally also loaded Pershing missile documentation and a few samples rockets, meat for W Germany. I mean wrong fucking coast!
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Right?! Total SNAFU!
 

sloreck

The Soviet Union taking over Iran - making it as much of a satellite as the WP countries with Soviet forces both occupying/controlling Iranian oil and half of the Persian Gulf is not the lesser of two evils. As much as a pain in the ass the Iranians have been since Khomeini took over, they have not played serious chicken with the US/NATO. If the Soviets decided to close down Hormuz, or "unknown" forces planted modern mines thereby hosing all oil exports the US escorting tankers, or clearing the mines, etc would mean a very direct US-USSR confrontation. US sailors killed by Russian mines, or Soviet airmen shot down by a US ship (think the oops of the Iran Air flight) and things could go very bad very fast. As it stands Iran has much more in the way of limits on what it can do as opposed to an "Iran" with Soviet forces there as a member of the WP.
 
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