American/French Revolutions put off. What is the next conflict in Europe?

[dreadnought jenkins]

So, I was just thinking about a little scenario, but I kinda came up short.

So the scenario goes like this: The American War of Independence is killed in its cradle rather early on. There are skirmishes, but what went American OTL did not and it dies early.

Early enough that the French don`t sink a bunch a money into it.

So there is no large European conflagration around the American colonies. France.

So France`s finances are better, but the bad crop harvests still happen so riots occur. The King is able to bend a little, but he keeps his position with some reforms. France is still shaky though.

My question is, over what would the next European conflict occur over?

Were there any points of contention on the horizon?

What of Poland? Would the lack of Jacobites in France change the reaction towards the May 3rd Constitution of Poland? (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitution_of_May_3,_1791#Aftermath:_war_and_the_final_two_partitions) Catherine would still probably hate it and intervene, but what of Prussia and Austria. Could the Poles somehow sweeten the deal to save themselves from the Russians, say by offering the crown to the Prussians if and when King Stanislaw II August dies?

Any other areas of interest?

 

[Georgie Porgie]

My feeling is that it would be started in America.

I presume that the 13 states would be banned from expanding much further Westward by the British Government, but this still leaves the south.

You have Spanish Florida and French Louisiana which would be venerable to attack from the North, particularly if supported by the British Navy.

One effect of the ARW was that it proved that Britain could be defeated and they were less belligerent (for a while anyway).

I can see British and American Colonial troops taking Florida and the Gulf Coast within 10 years of a failed ARW.

 

[Socrates]

The War of the Bavarian Succession could well have been a general European war if people weren't waiting for the American Revolution to kick off. The Corsican crisis and the Falklands crisis could also have become British-Bourbon wars. The Bar Confederation war in Poland could also have spiralled.

 

[Viriato]

Both Russia and Austria were looking to expand into the Balkans at the expense of the weakening Ottomans. However, both France and Britain were wary of this, as neither wanted the Russians to control the Dardanelles. By the end of the century however, there were those in the French court who began questioning the long-term survival of the Ottomans as an ally. The French had sent Baron de Tott to assist the Ottomans in defending themselves against the Russians, however by the 1770s he began arguing that France would be better off in joining in the conquest of the Ottoman Empire, with Crete, Egypt and Syria becoming French. Russian and Austrian diplomats approached the French and agreed to these terms by the 1780s.

A war of conquest against the Ottomans could go take on one of two scenarios.

1. Austria and Russia go to war against the Ottomans in the Balkans with French blessing. This leads Britain into the war on the Ottoman side, which in turn leads France into attacking Hanover along with an invasion of Crete and Egypt. Prussia will need to be bought off by Austria and Russia (perhaps with a larger chunk of Poland) or by the British with subsidies. In addition, Spain may throw its towel in as it had attacked Algiers in 1783 and 1784. Naples, Tuscany and the Papal States would be the minor powers supporting the war against the Ottomans. In addition, the Persians may join in to take Mesopotamia.

2. France opposes the war against the Ottomans and forms an alliance with the British against he Austrians and Russians. This is not as unlikely as it seems, as the French were uneasy about the growing power of Russia and sought to prop up the Ottomans. Also, Louis XVI began making overtures to ensure an Anglo-French rapprochement in the 1780s, such as the Eden Agreement in 1786, so perhaps this happens sooner. The British of course would prefer that Constantinople remain in the hands of a weak power. In such a scenario, Prussia would once again be important. The Austrians and Russians would definitely have to provide some sort of territorial concessions so that the Prussians do not enter into an alliance against them.

Another interesting thing to contend with was the naval race in Europe by the 1770s. France had been aggressively expanding its fleet, For that reason, it performed far better during the American Revolutionary War than in the Seven Years War. Britain on the other hand cut defence spending by the 1776 to alleviate its deficit. The Spanish too had begun rebuilding their fleet aggressively, allowing Spain's navy to reach a point where it was stronger than it had been in a century. The Russians were the other power who were building new ships as they sought a presence in the Mediterranean. Finally, smaller powers such as Denmark and Portugal were also rebuilding their fleets, but nothing on the scale of the three great naval powers (Britain, France and Spain).