Fearless Leader
Donor
What Happened in OTL: Following their capture of the Marianas, the Americans opted to modify MacArthur's original plan to return to the Philippines and invade the island of Leyte in the western Philippines instead of invading Mindanao from the south. Though this operation did end up producing some positive results when the Japanese opted to reinforce the island's garrison, resulting in the loss of numerous transport ships full of heavy equipment, in the end the Island's soggy soil proved to be ill-suited to the airfield construction future American plans required. Eventually, the Americans had to land on the much dryer island of Mindoro to build the requisite airfields to support their invasion of Luzon.
What Might Have Happened: How exactly, the poor soil and weather conditions on Leyte escaped American planners remains a mystery to this day AFAIK. However given America's history in the region, one could easily imagine someone successfully raising the issue and derailing the plan in TTL. Assuming that Nimitz' proposed invasion of Formosa runs into the same problems it ran into in OTL, what do the Americans do?
I can't see them invading Mindoro right off the bat in TTL without having at least some base in the Philippines first to provide additional security against perceived Japanese aerial and naval threats. Am I missing something?
Similarly, I don't think they would go straight for a landing on Luzon at Lingayen Gulf for the same reasons.
Mindanao is probably still an option, but they'd still want something closer to Luzon if OTL behaviour is any guide.
This leaves me at a bit of a loss. But I am toying with the ideas of following the original (abandoned) Japanese plan for the invasion of Luzon. Outside of Lingayen gulf, the best beaches for amphibious landings are around Aparri on the northern end of Luzon from what I can tell. There's an airfield there and on nearby islands of Batan and the Babuyan Islands which seem accessible enough to an American force based out of the Marianas from what I can see. Though they would be within range of Japanese air bases in southern Taiwan, that might not be a bad thing if the Americans want to force a decisive battle with the Japanese. It also seems to me like the Japanese were not expecting the Americans to land in that region. Now, it's probably worth noting that the biggest concentration of Japanese troops was on Luzon in OTL. They're going to have all their heavy equipment to fight the Americans with in TTL. However, if Yamashita rushes everything up north to Aparri, they'd leave themselves open to flanking amphibious landings.
EDIT: Apparently this idea was war gamed out in 1943 and MacArthur was in favour of it. The Australians were slated to take part but it was eventually dropped. Apparently Dr. Peter J. Dean, a major Australian military historian thinks it would have sped up the war.
https://researchonline.nd.edu.au/arts_conference/12/
EDIT #2: According to the campaigns of MacArthur in the Pacific the option was considered well into 1944 as a preliminary operation prior to the invasion at Lingayen Gulf. Map is from hyperwar. https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/RptsMacA/I/RptsI-9.html
What Might Have Happened: How exactly, the poor soil and weather conditions on Leyte escaped American planners remains a mystery to this day AFAIK. However given America's history in the region, one could easily imagine someone successfully raising the issue and derailing the plan in TTL. Assuming that Nimitz' proposed invasion of Formosa runs into the same problems it ran into in OTL, what do the Americans do?
I can't see them invading Mindoro right off the bat in TTL without having at least some base in the Philippines first to provide additional security against perceived Japanese aerial and naval threats. Am I missing something?
Similarly, I don't think they would go straight for a landing on Luzon at Lingayen Gulf for the same reasons.
Mindanao is probably still an option, but they'd still want something closer to Luzon if OTL behaviour is any guide.
This leaves me at a bit of a loss. But I am toying with the ideas of following the original (abandoned) Japanese plan for the invasion of Luzon. Outside of Lingayen gulf, the best beaches for amphibious landings are around Aparri on the northern end of Luzon from what I can tell. There's an airfield there and on nearby islands of Batan and the Babuyan Islands which seem accessible enough to an American force based out of the Marianas from what I can see. Though they would be within range of Japanese air bases in southern Taiwan, that might not be a bad thing if the Americans want to force a decisive battle with the Japanese. It also seems to me like the Japanese were not expecting the Americans to land in that region. Now, it's probably worth noting that the biggest concentration of Japanese troops was on Luzon in OTL. They're going to have all their heavy equipment to fight the Americans with in TTL. However, if Yamashita rushes everything up north to Aparri, they'd leave themselves open to flanking amphibious landings.
EDIT: Apparently this idea was war gamed out in 1943 and MacArthur was in favour of it. The Australians were slated to take part but it was eventually dropped. Apparently Dr. Peter J. Dean, a major Australian military historian thinks it would have sped up the war.
https://researchonline.nd.edu.au/arts_conference/12/
EDIT #2: According to the campaigns of MacArthur in the Pacific the option was considered well into 1944 as a preliminary operation prior to the invasion at Lingayen Gulf. Map is from hyperwar. https://www.ibiblio.org/hyperwar/USA/RptsMacA/I/RptsI-9.html
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