America Be Watching With The Popcorn: A Sino-Soviet War TL

[arrowiv]

How is the China Lobby reacting to all of this and also how do its leading supporters (Reagan, Goldwater, Helms) feel about the two communist powers duking it out? In this scenario, you can also kiss goodbye any trip to Beijing by Nixon/Kissinger in 1972. Presumably, the US continues to have relations with the ROC on Taiwan.

 

[Issei Uzumaki]

Chapter 3.1: The Sino-Soviet War Begins, July-Sept. 1969.

On July 17, 1969, The heavy artillery guns the Chinese had brought in (the defeat by the Russians was chalked up to the large amounts of hidden, heavy guns) began firing. Because it was only 2 AM, most of the Soviets were caught off guard. The Chinese had brought in much better officers for this assault, along with more troop transports. The Chinese plan, however, was much more complex than this. The plan involved cutting off Vladivostock from supply and therefore (hopefully) getting a big victory to make the Soviets call for a ceasefire. The Soviet plans focused on the North (as the USSR had better winter/cold weather troops), and included encircling Chinese armies and medium-sized cities and then continuing on to Harbin and Changchun.

About one hour after the initial bombardment, thousands of Chinese soldiers in water-proof troop transports came across the river. However, the Chinese had another trick up their sleeves. Before the bombardment commenced, Chinese elite forces snuck onto the island and placed bombs around the Soviet fortifications. While some of the bombs were discovered, the vast majority weren’t. The bombs weren’t very powerful, but they distracted the Soviets. The Third Battle of Zhenbao Island lasted just over five hours, and the Chinese ended up pushing the Russian out with superior numbers and the element of surprise. Later that month, both countries began their main offensives. The Chinese pushed east, half-encircling Vladivostok by the end of August. The Russians pushed south, although they made sub-par progress by the end of the next month.

Xinjiang hadn’t seen much war or devastation yet (emphasis on yet). For the most part, Manchuria was the main front. However, the Soviet-backed rebels began an insurrection, taking over various towns and villages throughout. By the current date in the TL (1st of September, 1969), the Chinese are already withdrawing from the small incursions they made into Soviet territory.

Frontlines, c. September 1, 1969

Yeah Yeah Yeah. I know this one was short, but I'm splitting chapter 3 into three or four parts, so the beginnings to the war can be better understood. Feedback is appreciated.

Like the story so far. Starting on July 17, 1969 puts a bit of damper on the Apollo mission that just lifted off the day before, heading to the moon. Interested to see how this war might be impacted by the diversion of the moon landing a week later.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

There is also the fact that wake up the nuclear geniee can be something that nobody really want to do, official doctrine or not official doctrine especially if you are not sure of what the nuclear armed superpower that at the moment is not involved in the fight will do. Not considering that the Politbureau can't be sure of the effective chinese nuclear capacity and frankly using for first a nuclear weapon will be a PR nightmare in an already complicated situation

So if I want to kill you, and you have a gun, I shouldn't try to shoot you, because then you would shoot at me. Instead I should just punch you in the face repeatedly, because you would never shoot at me for that.

Does this make any sense at all?

If the USSR goes to war against the PRC, its object is regime destruction - the elimination of Mao and his supporters. Mao and Co. have nuclear bombs. Will they die without using their most powerful weapons? Can the USSR exepect them to?

Rather obviously not, I'd say. So if the USSR doesn't want to be hit by nuclear bombs, then either they don't attack the PRC, or they attack and destroy the PRC's nuclear bombs with a first strike.

BTW I would say that the PR damage from first use of nuclear bombs would be trivial compared to the physical damage from being hit with nuclear bombs. China has ~50 bombs. If 10 of those bombs hit Soviet targets, at least 1M people will be killed.

 

[lukedalton]

So if I want to kill you, and you have a gun, I shouldn't try to shoot you, because then you would shoot at me. Instead I should just punch you in the face repeatedly, because you would never shoot at me for that.

Does this make any sense at all?

If the USSR goes to war against the PRC, its object is regime destruction - the elimination of Mao and his supporters. Mao and Co. have nuclear bombs. Will they die without using their most powerful weapons? Can the USSR exepect them to?

Rather obviously not, I'd say. So if the USSR doesn't want to be hit by nuclear bombs, then either they don't attack the PRC, or they attack and destroy the PRC's nuclear bombs with a first strike.

BTW I would say that the PR damage from first use of nuclear bombs would be trivial compared to the physical damage from being hit with nuclear bombs. China has ~50 bombs. If 10 of those bombs hit Soviet targets, at least 1M people will be killed.

No, is more i want to teach you a lesson but i will not use the enourmous cache of explosive to do it because it will cause the other to use his and there is a big big and big taboo and breack it will mean that the other guys with the enourmous cache of explosive will feel more at liberty to use it and so in the end everybody will be dead or wishing to be...so for now i will use only my knife.

The war started with the intention to be limited and just give the chinese a bloody nose to teach them who is the boss and return home, unfortunely now has escalated beyond control but regime destruction is not an objective, hell not even too much conquest of China for now because everyone in Moscow realize that will be too costly (at the moment).

Still the stigma to be considered the first nation to use nuclear weapons after WWII is enourmous and frankly it's a catastrophe from both the diplomatic and PR side of the situation and can spiral out of control, so whatever the doctrine say i doubt that any politician will be ready to open that kind of pandora Jar so readily.

 

[thekingsguard]

Now to see how the Soviets respond.

My money says badly.

 

[USS_Ward]

I wonder how the Brits are feeling right now. Hong Kong is still a Crown colony after all, maybe a good time to send some RN forces into the region, show the flag a bit in case Mao decides to completely fly off his rocker.

 

[lukedalton]

Warsaw PACT. Poland, Hungary, Czechoslovakia specifically.

That don't really change anything, they delivered and produced due to Moscow order to supply NV and the war with China still mean that they can't deliver or/and that weapon will be used directely by the URSS to counter the war loss

 

[Praetor98]

SOD broken. The Soviets would have started out using nukes from the start.

This is from Viktor Suvorov's book on the Soviet Army, and solidly describes the Soviet mindset. If you have nukes, the best defense is to use them. That's how they looked at it.

The scenario for a strategic offensive operation is a standard one, in all cases. Let us take the Western Strategic Direction as an example. We already know that this has a minimum of three Fronts in its first echelon, one more in its second echelon, and a Group of Tank Armies in its third. The Baltic Fleet operates on its flank. Each of its Fronts has one Tank Army, one Air Army and two All-Arms Armies. In addition, the Commander-in-Chief has at his disposal a Corps from the Strategic Rocket Forces, a Corps from the Long-Range Air Force, three airborne divisions and the entire forces of Military Transport Aviation. The rear areas of the Strategic Direction are protected by three Armies from the National Air Defence Forces. A strategic offensive is divided into five stages:

The first stage, or initial nuclear strike, lasts for half an hour. Taking part in this strike are all the rocket formations which can be used at that stage, including the Corps from the Strategic Rocket Forces, the rocket brigades of the Fronts and Armies, the rocket battalions of the first division echelon and all the nuclear artillery which has reached the forward edge of the battle area. The initial nuclear strike has as its targets:

Command posts and command centres, administrative and political centres, lines of communication and communications centres-in other words, the brain and nerve-centres of a state and of its armies.

Rocket bases, stores for nuclear weapons, bases for nuclear submarines and for bomber aircraft. These targets must be knocked out in order to reduce Soviet losses at the hands of the enemy to the absolute minimum.

Airfields, anti-aircraft positions, radar stations, to ensure the success of the offensive breaks in the enemy's defenses, must be made for Soviet aircraft. The main groupings of the enemy's forces. Why fight them if they can be destroyed before a battle can begin?

In addition to the forces directly under the command of the C-in-C of the Strategic Direction, units of the Strategic Rocket Forces will also play a supporting role in the initial nuclear strike. These will concern themselves in particular with attacks on the enemy's principal ports, in order to prevent the enemy from bringing up reinforcements and in order to isolate the European continent.

Soviet generals consider, with good reason, that an initial nuclear strike must be unexpected, of short duration and of the greatest possible intensity. If it is delayed by as much as an hour, the situation of the Soviet Union will deteriorate sharply. Many of the enemy's fighting units may move from their permanent locations, his aircraft may be dispersed on to motorways; divisions of his land forces may leave their barracks, his senior leaders may move, with their cabinets, to underground shelters or to air-borne command posts and the task of annihilating them will become extremely difficult, if not impossible. This is why the maximum possible number of nuclear weapons will be used to deliver an initial nuclear strike.

The second stage follows immediately upon the first. It lasts between 90 and 120 minutes. It consists of a mass air attack by the Air Armies of all the Fronts and by all the Long-Range Air Force units at the disposal of the C-in-C of the Strategic Direction.

This attack is carried out as a series of waves. The first wave consists of all the available reconnaissance aircraft-not only those of the reconnaissance regiments but also the squadrons of fighters and fighter bombers which have been trained in reconnaissance. In all, more than a thousand reconnaissance aircraft from the Strategic Direction will join this wave; they will be assisted by several hundred pilotless reconnaissance aircraft. The primary tasks of the aircraft in this wave are to assess the effectiveness of the initial nuclear strike and to identify any objectives which have not been destroyed.

Immediately behind these aircraft comes the main wave, made up of all the Air Armies and Corps. Nuclear weapons are carried by those aircraft whose crews have been trained to deliver a nuclear strike. The targets of this wave are in the same categories as those of the rockets which delivered the initial nuclear attack. But, unlike the rockets, these aircraft attack mobile rather than stationary targets. They follow up after the rockets, finishing off whatever the latter were unable to destroy. Among the first of their mobile targets are: tank columns which have managed to leave their barracks, groups of aircraft which have succeeded in taking off from their permanent airfields and in reaching dispersal points on motorways, and mobile anti-aircraft weapons.

The Soviet commanders believe that this massive air activity can be carried out without heavy losses, since the enemy's radars will have been destroyed, many of his computer systems and lines of communication will have been disrupted and his aircrews and anti-aircraft forces will have been demoralised.

While these massive air operations are taking place all staff personnel will be working at top speed on evaluation of the information which is coming in about the results of the initial nuclear strike. Meanwhile, all the rocket launchers which took part in the initial nuclear strike will be reloading. At the same time, too, the rocket battalions of the divisions and the rocket brigades of the Armies and Fronts, which did not take part in the initial strike because they were too far behind the front line, will move up to the forward edge of the battle area at the maximum possible speed.

All aircraft will then return to their bases and the third stage will begin immediately.

The third stage, like the first, will last only half an hour. Taking part in it will be even more rocket launchers than those involved in the first stage, since many will have moved up from the rear areas. The thinking behind this plan is simple: in battle the enemy's prime concern will be to hunt out and destroy all Soviet rocket launchers; each of these should therefore inflict the maximum possible damage on the enemy before this happens. The aim is to destroy all those targets which survived the first and second stages, and to put the maximum possible number of the enemy's troops and equipment, especially his nuclear weapons, out of action.

The fourth stage lasts between 10 and 20 days. It can be broken down into offensive operations by individual Fronts. Each Front concentrates all its efforts on ensuring success for its Tank Army. To achieve this the All-Arms Army attacks the enemy's defences and the Front Commander directs the Tank Army to the point at which a breakthrough has been achieved. At the same time, the entire resources of the Front's artillery division are used to clear a path for the Tank Army. The rocket brigades lay down a nuclear carpet ahead of the Tank Army, and the Air Army covers its breakthrough operation. The Front's anti-tank brigades cover the Tank Army's flanks, the air-borne assault brigade seizes bridges and crossing points for its use, and the diversionary brigade, operating ahead of and on the flanks of the Tank Army, does everything possible to provide it with favourable operating conditions.

The Tank Army is brought up to a breach in the enemy defences only when a real breakthrough has been achieved and once the Front's forces have room for manoeuvre. The Tank Army pushes forward at maximum possible speed to the greatest depth it can reach. It avoids prolonged engagements, it keeps clear of pockets of resistance and it often becomes separated by considerable distances from the other components of the Front. Its task, its aim, is to deliver a blow like that from a sword or an axe: the deeper it cuts, the better.

An All-Arms Army advances more slowly than a Tank Army, destroying all the pockets of resistance in its path and any groups of enemy troops which have been surrounded, clearing up the area as it moves forward.

A Tank Army is like a rushing flood, tearing its way through a gap in a dyke, smashing and destroying everything in its path. By contrast an All-Arms Army is a quiet, stagnant sheet of water, flooding a whole area, drowning enemy islands and slowly undermining buildings and other structures until they collapse.

During the first few hours or days of a war, one or all of the Fronts may suffer enormous losses. But it should not be assumed that the C-in-C of a Strategic Direction will use his second echelon Front to strengthen or take the place of the Front which has suffered most. The second echelon Front is brought into action at the point where the greatest success has been achieved, where the dyke has really been breached or where at least a very dangerous crack can be seen developing.

The fifth stage lasts 7–8 days. It may begin at any time during the fourth stage. As soon as the C-in-C is sure that one of his Fronts has really broken through, he moves up his second echelon Front and, if this manages to push through the opening, he brings his striking force, his Group of Tank Armies, into action. This operation by the Group against the enemy's rear defences represents the fifth stage of a strategic offensive.

This Group of Tank Armies consists of two Tank Armies. However, by this time the Tank Armies of the Fronts may already be in action against the enemy's rear defences. These Tank Armies may be taken away from the Front Commanders, at the decision of the C-in-C, and incorporated in the Group of Tank Armies. Towards the end of the action there may be five or even six Tank Armies in the Group, bringing its establishment up to as much as 10,000 tanks. If during a breakthrough half or even two thirds of these are lost, the Group still will be of impressive strength.

However, the Soviet General Staff hopes that losses will not be as large as this. Our pack of cards effect should manifest itself. Moreover, the operations of the Group of Tank Armies will be supported by all the resources available to the C-in-C of the Strategic Direction. All his rocket and air forces will be attacking the enemy with nuclear weapons, his airborne divisions will be dropped to help the Group to advance. Lastly, the whole Baltic Fleet will be supporting the Group. If the Group manages to advance, the whole of the forces available to the State, up to and including the Supreme Commander himself, can be massed to support it.

 

[Lemonfish]

I will be surprised if northern China didn't become nuclear wasteland after this war ended.

 

[Panzerlied]

Meanwhile... Communist parties that follow the Maoist or the Marxist-Leninist schools of thought are fighting each other.
(Maoist) Communist: Imperial revisionist scum!
(Marxist-Leninist) Communist: Imperial revisionist scum!

From the sidelines...
USA: Workers of the world unite, my ass. LMAO.
Ghost of Marx: Screaming that the Communists are fighting each other instead of fighting and resisting the Capitalist Imperialists.

 

[Praetor98]

From the sidelines...
USA: Workers of the world unite, my ass. LMAO.
Ghost of Marx: Screaming that the Communists are fighting each other instead of fighting and resisting the Capitalist Imperialists.

Oh it must hurt Marxie to see your plan to destroy the world going up in smoke.

 

[NHBL]

Regarding Nixon: if he decides to launch a nuclear strike, as far as I know, there's nothing to stop him legally. That doesn't mean that something illegal might be done.

Oh it must hurt Marxie to see your plan to destroy the world going up in smoke.

In fairness to someone who is widely reviled and did a LOT of harm, he did not plan to destroy the world.

 

[theflyingmongoose]

Regarding Nixon: if he decides to launch a nuclear strike, as far as I know, there's nothing to stop him legally. That doesn't mean that something illegal might be done.

This idea is quite popular with a certain Director of the Office of Economic Opportunity and one of his 29 year-old staffers, along with everyone's favorite National Security Advisor.

 

[NORGCO]

This idea is quite popular with a certain Director of the Office of Economic Opportunity and one of his 29 year-old staffers, along with everyone's favorite National Security Advisor.

Doesn't the President need two cabinet-level people to independently approve the use of nuclear weapons? That is always the way I have seen it explained in the past. I would think that it would be less than totally certain that he would get that under these circumstances.

The US is not under direct threat, after all, he would be deciding to voluntarily make it a target in order to protect a regime whose whole stated reason for existence is the overthrow of everything his country stands for. China is THE ENEMY in the same way that the USSR is. That the communist bloc is split and fighting is better than it being united against the western democracies. If the worst comes to the worst and an all-out nuclear war begins, it will be better to not be on the receiving end of thousands of Soviet thermonuclear weapons. He has a chance to avoid that, and putting serious effort into doing so would seem the logical move.

Would Nixon AND his cabinet members be so illogical as to INVITE such an attack?

Nuclear war would be the greatest catastrophe in recorded history, and unrecorded too unless you count the destruction of the dinosaurs. Voluntarily putting the USA in the crosshairs to protect Mao and his minions would be seen as insane.

Possibly literally.

 

[dakkafex]

Doesn't the President need two cabinet-level people to independently approve the use of nuclear weapons?

Nope, as the Commander in Chief the authority to launch lies solely with the President. Nuclear authority in particular is centralized in that position, as an attack from an enemy could come with so little warning that there might not be time to convene or even contact the rest of the Cabinet in the window of minutes that might be available to launch a retaliatory or pre-emptive strike. This is why the nuclear football exists, and why it's always with the President, so that they could, at any time and place, authorize a nuclear launch with minimal delay.

 

[mial42]

The people on this thread are clearly more knowledgeable at Maoist China's military capabilities then me, as well as the Soviet Union's.

Therefore, I humbly ask: was China in the late sixties really able to fight the USSR in industry reliant fields, such as air force? OP already commented (can't remember when exactly) that the PRC's navy is essentially non-existent, so I can't imagine that it's air force is doing much better.

Honestly, I can kind of see the VVS raining down fire upon Chinese factories and infrastructure until the country can barely arm its own soldiers. I might have a stereotypes idea of Chinese industry under Mao, but I doubt that it was anywhere near up to par with the Soviet Union. Not to mention that, without air superiority, is China really a nuclear threat? Were its missiles potent enough to warrant restraint when dealing with them?

Also, what kind of contact is the Kremlin having with the White House at this point? By 1969, the US and the USSR had coexisted as nuclear powers for over two decades, so one knows that the other can be at least somewhat reasoned with. The Forbidden City, on the other hand, was presided over by a factually insane man. From what I know of American foreign policy, entities like the CIA would be working over time to undermine the Chinese war effort, since the enemy you know is usually better than the one you don't.

Short answer: the Chinese can't compete with the Soviets in the air, especially once the Soviets shift some of their more modern forces from Europe, and China's nuclear arsenal can't do much more than what it has in this TL. However, Chinese industry is largely dispersed in the country side, and thus difficult to bomb, and the PLA is experienced fighting opponents with air and materiel superiority, so air superiority alone will not win the war for the USSR. Nuclear restraint is warranted less by fear of Chinese retaliation and more by the damage it would cause to the USSR's world standing (the nuclear taboo is in full force by the late 1960s; they are not viewed as "just big bombs" by the world at large, but rather particularly evil and uncivilized weapons).

Also, Mao was very much not insane. A fanatic ideologue and true believer? Yes. Insane? No. He would not have been able to win the Chinese Civil War or regain control over China after 1965 if he were insane.

 

[Johnrankins]

One problem is why is the USSR not moving some of its troops from Europe to Asia? A few corps more or less isn't going to change the balance of power in Europe much. NATO isn't likely to attack merely because a corps or three moves to Asia. It would still be badly outnumbered. China was threatening and then actually took Vladivostok with the Soviets not moving a single division east to push the Chinese out. I see that as very unlikely.

Also put me down with disagreeing with MacPherson. NV is going to have serious, serious problems. Almost all of its resupply will be cut off due to the war and then it is toast. Logistics, logistics , logistics is a saying for a reason. Without spare parts, new weapons, oil and food the NVA would start sliding downhill fairly quickly. It would be at the negotiation tables much sooner and Nixon would have a much stronger hand. Congress might even send the money we promised the SV in the treaty.

 

[Seandineen]

Could it possibly avoid watergate? Without excusing it part of Nixon‘s anger came from the fact that he had spent four years fighting for a peace treaty and to defend Thieu. He had in his mind, been kicked around by the media and the protesters. If we get an earlier treaty, McGovern won’t get the nod in 72, and the general lack of trust in government won’t become endemmic.

 

[kclcmdr]

Will North Vietnam be pragmatic and maintain a truce with South Vietnam while her two main military Suppliers are right now nuking & invading each other at the Sino-Soviet Border so as to avoid being dragged into a possibly no-win but heavy losses scenario???

 

[marathag]

Chinese industry is largely dispersed in the country side,

Except for the new factories the USSR helped them setup around Peking in the 1950s, when relations were far better