Happy Fatty's Constitution, Part 4:
MAYÍN CORREA ELECTED PRESIDENT OF PANAMA, SET TO BECOME COUNTRY'S SECOND FEMALE PRESIDENT
May 4, 2009
Mayín Correa, candidate of the incumbent MOLIRENA party, has been elected President of Panama, projected by the Associated Press. She defeats PRD candidate Balbina Herrera, Panamanianist candidate Juan Carlos Varela, and former President Guillermo Endara, running with his new Moral Vanguard of the Fatherland Party. She will become her country's second female president.
Correa's victory is a vindication for outgoing President Guillermo 'Billy' Ford. He has generally been considered a successful president, and while his time in government has, unsurprisingly, garnered some criticisms, he seems to be Panama's most popular president since the restoration of democracy in 1989. During his five years, he has continued Blades's numerous infrastructure projects, in the eyes of many in a more efficient manner (though a number, most notably the canal expansion, are still in progress) and reduced the deficit without having to institute major tax hikes (though government spending still remains a live issue for the incoming Correa administration), and delivered on the most efficient producer of presidential popularity, economic growth (a key feature in his deficit policy, since thanks to it government revenue grew even without tax hikes). Panama's economy is far outpacing the world average, having entered an economic boom in the last few years that the Great Recession has only mildly disrupted. This is considered perhaps the single most important factor in Correa's clear victory in the presidential race.
Correa, for her part, has had an unorthodox path to the presidency. First emerging in politics as a local representative all the way back in 1979, she served as an opposition legislator in the Noriega years, granting her sterling anti-Noriega credentials she maneuvered into a coveted 1991 appointment as Panama City mayor, often considered the second most powerful position in the country, following her predecessor's resignation. Resoundingly elected in 1994 as a member of the Christian Democratic Party, her well-regarded eight-year tenure as mayor offered her much experience, goodwill, and power, allowing her to fully establish herself as a force to be reckoned with. In 1999, she was narrowly defeated for reelection by Juan Carlos Navarro, a defeat that should have ended her career; instead, many noted how far ahead of the top of the ticket she had run, no small feat given how big the PRD victory had been. Five years ago, she staged a successful comeback run to the National Assembly, forging an eclectic alliance of Christian Democrats and the MOLIRENA, which began her shift in partisan affiliation in a way that allowed her to switch to a larger party without alienating her previous supporters, in a model many consider key in her race to defeat her main opponent in yesterday's election.
The PRD, for its own part, entered this election season on the backfoot and never really left it. Faced with the difficult prospect of running as the opposition to a rather popular incumbent government, many believed the final nail in the coffin was when the party's primary returned Balbina Herrera, a former mayor of San Miguelito and President of the Nation Assembly, as their candidate. Herrera, suffice to say, is a divisive figure; she is known for her links to not just to the human rights abuses of the Noriega regime, but the disgraced former military leader himself, who even two decades after Operation Just Cause remains a deeply unpopular figure in his homeland. There is also the matter of her political views; in a generally unideological and personalist country, one would think such things to be perhaps more trivial, but Herrera has proven the exception to this rule, as links between her and Hugo Chávez's ideology have not gone down well in a country where Chávez is a rather unpopular figure. That said, Herrera did exceed expectations in the actual result; she garnered 33.65% of the vote, a three-point improvement on her party's performance five years ago, and was only 9.97% behind Correa, when most pre-election opinion polls had her at a double-digit loss. Many PRDers are consoling themselves with the limited nature of their defeat, while those of the MOLIRENA note that earlier electoral polls from back in March had a closer election between Herrera and Correa, indicating the latter surged further ahead during the campaign.
The explanation for this is likely found by analyzing the worst night of any of the parties had, that of the Panamanianist Party. Juan Carlos Varela, a former member of the Ford Cabinet elevated to the Panamanianist presidential nomination almost by default in a party increasingly lacking in internal talent, came a disappointing third, taking 20% of the vote. Varela, a politically youthful 45-year-old, had been touted by many as the strongest personality and best hope the party had for reversing its floundering fortunes; after five years playing second fiddle to President Ford, many were insistent on going their own way in this election. However, when Herrera unexpectedly began to surge, this produced an impetus to form an alliance with the MOLIRENA in order to shut her out of the presidency. However, those alliance talks fell apart, and Varela, who publicly walked out of them, was widely blamed for their failure. It seems many voters did not forgive Varela for this decision. Combined with allegations of personal corruption and requisite accompanying accusations of garden-variety incompetence from his time in the Ford administration, it seems like the man ultimately fell flat in a way few Arnulfists expected when he won their nomination last year.
As for Correa herself, once she gained momentum, she never lost it. In her second Assembly stint, she emerged as a key legislator in getting the Christian Democrats on board for many of the Ford adminsitration's legislative priorites, and quickly became nationally famous for it. Last year, she announced a run for the MOLIRENA presidential nomination, and defeated Arturo Vallarino, the previous frontrunner, in an upset before evntually choosing him as her running mate. Using her previous partisan ties, she succeeded in forging an unlikely alliance with the Christian Democrats, and while Herrera surged and Varela collapsed, she remain a steady presence to the end, ending with her widely expected victory yesterday. She comes in with the wind behind her back, with a strong economy and a legislative majority (once you account for coalition partners). She will still face daunting challenges; many infrastructure projects still require completion, corruption is not a solved issue, and government financing is a thorny issue. But many Panamanians feel good, an oddity in this Great Recession world, and in becoming only the second female Latin American who has always been a political figure in her own right rather than the wife or widow of one, after Michelle Bachelet of Chile three years ago, she is giving many women reason to feel good. Glass ceilings aside, Correa has a uniquely strong position from which to work - which most definitely allows for a lot of potential in reforming her country. It might perhaps be best if she took this to heart.
NOTE: Starting with the 2014 election, I'll be moving this over to the current politics wikibox thread. If you wish to see this thing's end, that's where it'll be.