The
1904 United Statespresidential election was held on November 8, 1904. Incumbent Democratic President J. Hamilton Lewis of Washington was reelected over Republican Senator Oscar Straus of New York.
The resolution of the 1900 election meant the beginning of peace negotiations with the Allied Powers. This threatened to be a potential poisoned chalice for whichever administration chose to attempt to take on this challenge, and in many cases would have. But President-elect Robert Pattison had taken a role, alongside the outgoing President Allison, when the many parties came to the table in late November of 1900. The negotiations, which took place in the Canadian capital of Ottawa, extended over months. The goals of the United States were to minimize losses, while the Allies wanted to constrain the power of the United States; both parties, additionally, did not desire an invasion of the continental United States, which would be costly and damaging for both sides. Quickly the United States established a relative willingness to let go of more imperialist ambitions, which were a divisive topic at home anyway. The United States consequently promised to never annex Hawaii (whose peace treaty with the Allies would then remove American influence more directly), promised to annul its unequal treaties with Asian countries, gave the islands claimed in the Guano Islands Act to Germany (whose Pacific gains were intended by Britain as a way to satisfy Germany to prevent larger German gains in Europe, the Middle East, or Africa), and gave Britain (who would also have the still-occupied Bahamas returned to it) carte blanche over Liberia. Then came the more painful clauses: the Franco-American canal project in Panama was to be ceded to Britain and Germany, who would jointly operate it (neither trusted the other with it, which would become a key sticking point in the leadup to the Second World War), Alaska was to be ceded to the UK, large indemnities were to be paid to all members of the Allies (the United States, thus far, had generally been the Entente Power to be the least fiscally ruined by the war), and, most painfully, the Monroe Doctrine was to be declared null and void. European powers would be allowed to do as they pleased in the Americas, with no interference by the United States. The clause was disliked by the negotiators, but accepted because the treaty did not contain one crucial thing: the cession of any territory in the mainland United States. While all territories save the Arizona, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Indian Territories (which were part of the mainland) were lost, the parts of the country considered the United States were not lost. There was also a severe debate over disarmament clauses; the United States, in the end, agreed to limit its army size (which they had been doing anyway) in exchange for looser restrictions on naval matters. This severely annoyed the Allies, who obviously were more afraid the the US's navy than its army, but some restrictions had been achieved and this was thought good enough among negotiators who just wanted the war ended. Nonetheless, the losses suffered in the Treaty of Ottawa were not popular.
This should have, in theory, been a problem for President Pattison, whose signature was on the document. But Republicans had little way of attacking him over it; much of the negotiations had taken place during President Allison's lame duck period, so the document itself was a bipartisan sin, compared the war itself, which Democrats, despite largely voting for it in July of 1897, were easily able to wash their hands of. President Pattison's problem were others: in particular, the demobilization effort. Inflation had run high during the war due to high demand and President Allison's Silver Purchase Act of 1897. Pattison thus became very focused on fighting this inflation, repealing like President Bayard the new Silver Purchase Act and focusing on the buildup of the nation's gold supplies (fiscal prudence would be necessary to pay off the debts accrued and indemnities levied by the war and treaty). While this succeeding in reducing inflation, its simultaneous implementation to the end of the war led to a major recession throughout the first half of Pattison's term. Unemployed veterans soon lined the streets. If the Treaty of Ottawa had dampened Pattison's popularity, the Depression of 1901 cratered, and though the worst had passed by then, contributed to Republicans' successful takeover of the House in the 1902 midterms, returning William McKinley to the speakership.
Another dominant theme of Pattison's economic policy was one of fiscal prudence. In short, the war and the treaty meant the country needed money to reduce its large debts, pay troops, and another assorted responsibilities. During the Civil War, an income tax had been levied in order to fund the government, but it had been repealed afterward. It had become a progressive proposal to implement a permanent peacetime income tax in order to fund the government, especially among free-traders who wished to reduce tariffs. An attempt to do so during the Olney administration, the Wilson-Gorman Tariff, had died, opposed resolutely by the president who did not feel the reduction in the tariff was worth the levying of an income tax [1], but then during the war the Allison administration had levied an income tax. As Pattison had entered the presidency, the question remained of what wartime measures were to be maintained and which ones were to be undone. The press regulations had been among the first to go; the railroads, despite a strong movement by the Populists, Bryan, and other progressives to keep them in the hands of the state, were reprivatized. The repeal of rationing and the draft went without saying. The income tax became the biggest debate regarding wartime measures; despite President Pattison's reticence at keeping it, it was judged that the fiscal needs of the nation were too great, and the first peacetime income tax in the history of the United States was to be levied. A lawsuit was launched against, ending up at the Supreme Court, that argued such a tax to be unconstitutional; the court, in a 5-4 decision, declared the income tax constitutional.
As 1904 approached, the economy had begun to improve. Rebuilding in Europe provided a boon for American industry, as though many among the Allies remained distrustful, the lack of any action in the mainland US proper meant that American industry had suffered comparatively little to Canadian or European industry; while German and British industries offered much competition, the demand was great enough that the United States still made strong economic gains, as they particularly became very popular among French and Italian contractors. Thus as 1904 approached President Pattison was gaining in popularity, while the Republicans were still held down by their incumbency in 1897. President Pattison and Vice-President Lewis were both renominated with little difficulty.
The Republican National Convention, meanwhile, was still fairly organized, but the factionalism in the party had not abided very much. The gold-silver division was increasingly irrelevant and exceeded by the division of "progressive" and "conservative" elements in both parties. The latter, under President Pattison, firmly controlled the Democratic Party, and were also associated with President Allison and his faction in the Republican Party, which weakened them going into the convention. Thus it was the progressives running the Republicans' show in 1904, as they wanted to draw a contrast with the Democrats and Allison's faction was hideously unpopular. Oscar Straus, a diplomat-turned-senator from New York [2], was eventually the nominee; the initial frontrunner, Straus's home state governor Theodore Roosevelt, had been hurt by Southern progressives' resolute opposition to him due to his tendency to call them corrupt (often accurately) [3], and Straus had been the candidate both had agreed on. Joseph Gurney Cannon, a resolute conservative from Illinois and the House's no. 2 Republican, was named the vice-presidential candidate, as much an olive branch to the conservative wing as it was an attempt to get him out of a position many progressives hated him being in.
Both parties were prepared to have a race in which no major third-parties would arise, as the Populists fully collapsed into irrelevance. However, there was one last major development to occur: a death. Specifically, that of President Pattison, who had been relatively young (just 53 years old), yet appeared to have been done in by the stress of the presidency and died on August 1, 1904. This left a major issue for the Democrats, for their candidate had just died mid-election season and leaving J. Hamilton Lewis the youngest president in the history of the nation. An emergency meeting of the Democratic National Committee made President Lewis the new Democratic candidate, and selected, at his urging, Alton B. Parker, a respected conservative judge from New York, as his vice-president candidate. This greatly changed the race; Republican attacks had previously been aimed at the conservative Pattison, not the progressive Lewis. Now the Republicans had little way of contrasting themselves against the Democrats. For all the panic that had gripped the Democrats early in the race, when they were unsure of Lewis, by the time Election Day had rolled around the newly-minted president had proven his campaigning mettle, while Straus came off as one might expect a career diplomate to come off. To the surprise of many, it was Republicans who struggled to adapt to the change in candidate. Lewis promised the bold progressive agenda Pattison had never even looked at, in particular promising a more active enforcement of anti-trust laws. Straus's promises to do similar programs did not convince the electorate.
In the end the Republicans avoided disaster, as the previous term had enough difficulties that Lewis could only win by so much, but it still was a Democratic victory. Lewis won most of the Mid-Atlantic, carried Illinois and Indiana in the Midwest, had the best performance of any Democrat in the West until 1932, and carried most of the South's swing states. Straus carried a few states in the Midwest, where Lewis's support among German-Americans and progressives kept the race close in most of Straus's wins, along with five New England states and the four most Republican-leaning southern states, but won just 179 electoral votes to the 297 of Lewis.
[1] IOTL Cleveland allowed the Wilson-Gorman tariff (and the associated income tax) to become law despite his opposition to it just to get rid of the McKinley tariff. ITTL the McKinley tariff was never a thing and so, with tariffs already not being quite so high, Bayard and Olney don't consider the tradeoff worth it.
[2] The seat Chauncey Depew was elected to IOTL, for which the GOP found an alternative due to Depew being busy being vice-president.
[3] A thing that was absolutely not a factor IOTL due to southern Republicans not really being relevant but which hurts TR ITTL, where his general tendency to annoy Black Southern Republicans (but not northern ones) with their connections to corruption leading to a rather important section of TTL's progressive Republicans to absolutely hate him (which, it isn't TR if he isn't getting even his ideological allies to hate his guts over this kind of stuff, now is it).