Cross post from my TL (Link in my Signature below)
After forty-one years in power, a record bested only by the Ontario Progressive Conservatives, the Alberta PCs appeared bankrupt in every conceivable way. Stockwell Day had come to power only a few years earlier under the impression that he would implement strict budgetary measures and reign in government spending, something which the party had slowly let get away from them towards the end of Ralph Klein’s fourteen years as Premier. Many within the government had also hoped that the evangelical Day would be able to squash the uprising of Randy Thorsteinson and his upstart Alliance Party, which had begun to gain traction amongst the more right-wing and ideologically strict voter that the Tories typically relied upon to vote for them. But in his mission to appease the right, Premier Day had neglected the centre, where a great deal of his party still occupied. Red Tories and moderates were left isolated, and in many cases instead turned their attention to the Alberta Liberal Party. In any other province, winning a majority government would typically secure a Premier’s position as head of the party. For Stockwell Day, his unimpressive victory and continued infighting between the Tories left and right flanks, not to mention his inability to deliver on his pledge to balance the budget, meant that his time as head of Alberta Inc. was at an end. Thus, when federal Defense Minister Stephen Harper returned to Alberta to take charge of the struggling provincial conservatives, he was initially greeted as the party’s saviour.
An economist by trade, Harper’s roots in Canada’s conservative movement ran deep. First elected as a member of the Reform Party, he joined others in abandoning the party in favour of the revamped Conservatives after it became clear Preston Manning was taking the party nowhere. Rumoured as a potential federal leader himself, Harper would loyally serve under both Gary Filmon and Jim Dinning, serving in the latter’s cabinet as both Minister of Public Safety, and later as National Defense Minister. But disputes within the party over the direction the government was taking had tested even Harper’s loyalty to his more moderate leader. The Prime Minister’s friendship with Finance Minister John Tory, not to mention the former’s implementation of his own environmental bill had created a great deal of bad blood between the PMO and the Conservative Party’s right flank. Still, Harper had come to appreciate the strategies implemented by Dinning to ignore the larger issues of social conservatives, like same-sex marriage and abortion, and instead play to favourable nods like tax cuts for students who were home schooled. Keeping the conservative movement unified was the key to success, be it in Canada or the province of Alberta. So, when Stephen Harper bested the likes of Lyle Oberg and Ed Stelmach, it was by a rather large margin, reflecting the desire and belief that the former federal minister would be enough to bring order to the growing chaos that was Albertan politics.
But many of the die-hard right-wingers that the PCs hoped to pull back to their flank were weary of Harper, who they viewed as a sellout and a turncoat for abandoning the Reform Party. The fact that the new Premier had served in the cabinet of a man that many members of the federal Reform Party and provincial Alliance thought of as a closet Liberal didn’t help either. Red Tories meanwhile were suspicious of a man who had previously advocated for their destruction, and were alarmed at their new leader’s interest at creating what he had previously called a “firewall” between Alberta and the federal government, a government currently comprised of Conservatives. As for the general public, polls suggested that although the average voter was generally indifferent to who led the Progressive Conservative Party, the notion of a politician from Ottawa coming back to take charge wasn’t as appealing as the Tories had hoped. In essence, although Harper provided a small bounce in the polls, and granted the government some added credibility by virtue of his experience and outsider status, his presence threatened to upset both wings of the party, who were still set to strangle the other. But amid the worry and hand-wringing, the Tory machine still managed to rack up by-election victories, picking up a seat from both the Liberals and the NDP.
Facing off against Premier Harper in the legislature was the new leader of the provincial Liberal Party, former Calgary Mayor Dave Bronconnier. A former candidate for the federal party, Bronconnier had cemented himself as the most powerful man in one of Canada’s largest cities. It wasn’t before long that the Liberal leader began unleashing attacks against Harper, accusing the latter of returning to Alberta to satiate his own political ambitions, which had begun to be stymied in Ottawa. Although it had yet to happen in Canada, serving as Premier of Alberta was viewed as an excellent stepping stone for anyone wishing to one day serve as either leader of the Conservative Party of Canada or Prime Minister of Canada. The former mayor also accused Harper of pushing a hard-right political agenda, and of being out of step with modern Albertans. While Bronconnier enjoyed the barb-trading in the legislature, Premier Harper did little to conceal his contempt for the institution, often refusing to offer clear or direct answers to the opposition’s questions, be they Liberal, New Democrat, or Alliance. There were many instances where Harper left the Deputy Premier, to answer questions on his behalf.
By the time the writs were dropped in 2012, polls showed the governing Tories still ahead. But something was different. Their lead wasn’t the size that most voters expected or indeed were used to. Ask which party they intended to support in the upcoming election, thirty-eight percent back the Tories, thirty percent intended to vote for the Liberals, and twenty-two percent for Randy Thorsteinson and the Alliance. Headlines began asking a question once though unimaginable; could the Tories actually lose in Alberta? Was the reported chaos in the Tory war room actual, or just a propaganda campaign promoted by the opposition? Red Tories had been isolated from much of the Tory machinery since Stockwell Day came to power six years earlier, and had only been tossed meagre scraps by Stephen Harper. It appeared that many of them intended to shop around this campaign, echoing some of the trends seen elsewhere throughout the country. According to the polls, a number of right-wing voters were still not yet sold on Harper, who had failed to tame the unruly Albertan economy despite promising otherwise, and were even incensed at the very notion that Red Tories were being given scraps by the Premier’s office. In response, the Tory election strategy was simple; try and keep the most loyal moderates within the party base, but reach out and nab the evangelical, rural voter that seemed intent on voting for the Alliance. But attempting to be all things to all people never seemed to work out for Harper, who seemed uncomfortable with the retail politics of his native province. In a federal election, most Tory candidates had little trouble finding support, so aside from attacking the Reform Party as unelectable, there was never much need for real, get down and dirty politics. But, buoyed by victories in New Brunswick, Prince Edward Island, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland, and Ontario, the Liberals found themselves increasingly competitive in Alberta.
Red Tories and moderates were upset. Right-wing conservatives were upset. The average Albertan was upset. Add in the Premier’s mediocre debate performance and the question slowly become not whether or not the Tories would lose, but how badly they would lose. Voters weren’t prepared to give the Premier’s office over to the likes of Randy Thorsteinson and his band of often offensive ideologues, but they weren’t willing to give the Progressive Conservatives the benefit of the doubt yet again. That left only one option, and a result that would send shockwaves through not only Alberta, but Canadian politics itself.
The red wave which had begun in Atlantic Canada had come crashing to the shores of Alberta, and what that would mean for the province or Canada…no one was entirely sure. All that was for certain was that Tories in Ottawa were left in a panic, although more than a few within the Prime Minister’s Office couldn’t help but smile at what was quickly labeled the end of Stephen Harper’s career in elected politics. One of Canada’s loudest right-wingers had been toppled. As for the Tories in Alberta, those who were left standing found themselves in an even worse situation. Who would lead them? Could they be saved? Only time would tell.
