1976: AS WATERGATE LINGERS, KENNEDY BRINGS NEW HOPE
The aftermath of the Watergate scandal lingered heavily over the election of 1976. President Gerald Ford had done as good a job as anyone could have reasonably expected of him given the circumstances he was thrust into, having never even been elected Vice President before taking over the Presidency after Richard Nixon's resignation. Still, there was a sense that Ford was "just a guy", that he was somehow not a "real" President and that it was only a matter of time before voters chose their new leader. Many thought Ford wouldn't even seek the republican nomination to run for a term of his own in '76 and even when he did, with heavy competition from former California Governor Ronald Reagan, a hero of the party's right wing, Ford barely did clinch the nomination.
The democratic primaries, however, were another matter. It was a classic David vs. Goliath story with the prohibitive frontrunner, New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy finding himself in an unexpectedly right race with insurgent Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter, who came out of seemingly nowhere to mount a serious challenge to Kennedy, whose campaign had not prepared for a long, drawn out nomination fight. Kennedy found that Carter had strong support in key regions in the south; indeed it was Carter's stunning upset in the Florida primary that really established him as a serious threat to Kennedy. Up to that point Carter had made a name for himself by finishing solidly in 2nd place in Iowa, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Vermont, but it was Florida that really made people take notice. Carter would go on to win four out of the next seven contests, mostly in the southern states of North Carolina, Texas, and his home state of Georgia, but he also managed to win another upset, this time in Indiana, proving he could win in outside the south. Kennedy, however, picked up key wins in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It was ultimately these wins that set the stage for Kennedy building a strong lead over Carter until, following Kennedy's win in the vital Michigan primary, Carter was forced to concede.
Kennedy finally had the democratic Presidential nomination in hand. He had come close eight years prior before being shot at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles after winning the California primary. It was touch and go for nearly a week, but Bobby survived; he was, however, forced to drop out of the race, essentially handing the nomination to then Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who would go on to lose to Richard Nixon in the general election. Many urged Kennedy to run in '72, but Bobby saw the polls showing a wide lead for Nixon over most of the democratic field and while a Nixon/Kennedy matchup was by far the closest of the potential matchups in hypothetical polling, Bobby wisely sat out 1972 and set his sights in '76. Fate had dealt him a kind hand - or was it Richard Nixon who did that? The fallout from Watergate had tarnished the republican party to a large degree, but Bobby also knew the democrats still had scars of their own showing from Vietnam, a war Kennedy himself had publicly opposed in '68.
Still, polls showed a relatively close race shaping up. Ford wasn't directly blamed for Watergate and Vietnam was no longer a major issue. It was clear from the polling that the southern vote would be key to any democratic victory. The south, once solidly democratic, had become a swing region thanks to unrest over the democratic-backed civil rights and voting rights acts. Republicans had taken advantage with their "southern strategy" and it had worked brilliantly, putting the south in play in a big way. Despite Ford not being overly popular in the south, Kennedy himself wasn't really either. He was viewed by many as an outside, a northern elitist, as too liberal in many ways. But more than that, many southerners simply felt Bobby Kennedy didn't understand them or their way of life. It was this fact that drove Bobby to go against the advice of the democratic party powers that be and choose Jimmy Carter himself as his running mate. The power brokers within the party wanted John Glenn on the ticket as they viewed the Senator and former astronaut as a potential future Presidential candidate, but Kennedy wasn't as confident as they were that the south would 'fall in line' on election day and Carter had proven during the primaries that he could win over voters in his home region.
President Ford, meanwhile, struggled to get away from the notion that he was somehow not "legitimate ." While he had managed to fend off Reagan for the nomination, many pundits felt Reagan might actually be the better national candidate as he was completely removed from Watergate and untouched by Nixon. For this reason, Ford was pressed hard to choose Reagan as his running mate, both to unite the party and also as an insurance policy in case Ford lost as party leaders felt Reagan could be a legitimate candidate in 1980 in the event of a GOP loss in '76. He would also give them a better shot at California, which was the key toss-up state that most felt Kennedy could not afford to lose. However, Reagan wasn't interested in the V.P. slot and instead Kansas Senator Bob Dole was chosen as Ford's running mate over Vice President Nelson Rockefeller.
Coming out of the conventions, polls were beginning to break toward Kennedy. The selection of Jimmy Carter as his running mate had shored up enough support in the south that it now appeared the region would, at worst, split evenly, which was good enough as long as Kennedy could carry California, a traditionally republican state, but one that his brother had come so close to carrying in 1960 and Lyndon Johnson did carry four years later. The other big toss-up states were Michigan, Ford's home state, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois along with New Jersey, which had started polling solidly for Ford, but by fall was running dead even. The Kennedy strategy was to keep Carter close to home, campaigning in the south, particularly Texas and Georgia. Bobby himself would spend a lot of time in California, but they couldn't put all their eggs into one basket, so he often found himself in crucial Illinois and Ohio as well.
The Presidential debate - the first since Bobby's brother and Richard Nixon had shared the stage in 1960 - was held in late September and proved to be the deciding factor in the race in the eyes of most pundits. Kennedy came out against the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade ruling for the first time, emphasizing his social conservative streak. Previously he had walked a fine line between "respecting the law" and saying abortions should be allowed in cases of rape, incest, and the health of the mother. While his position on abortion had long been suspected - even assumed by many - the campaign chose the debates as the key moment to officially come out against the ruling to hopefully appeal to social conservatives in the south. The stance alienated many liberals and women, but it likely won Kennedy at least a state or two in the south. Ford gave a thoroughly uninspiring performance and made one major gaffe, saying that "there [was] no Soviet domination of eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration." The gaffe, most pundits agree, essentially sealed Ford's fate.
Following the debate, polls showed Kennedy with a n 8-10 point lead over Ford and it appeared he was headed for a big win. On election night, the choice of Jimmy Carter wound up paying off in a big way as the ticket was able to carry Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Ford managed to hold onto Florida by the narrowest of margins, but when the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Illinois were called for Kennedy within 20 minutes of each other the networks officially declared Robert Kennedy the next President of the United States. The democrats also gained several seats in the Senate and retained strong control of the House.
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Next up: 1980
The aftermath of the Watergate scandal lingered heavily over the election of 1976. President Gerald Ford had done as good a job as anyone could have reasonably expected of him given the circumstances he was thrust into, having never even been elected Vice President before taking over the Presidency after Richard Nixon's resignation. Still, there was a sense that Ford was "just a guy", that he was somehow not a "real" President and that it was only a matter of time before voters chose their new leader. Many thought Ford wouldn't even seek the republican nomination to run for a term of his own in '76 and even when he did, with heavy competition from former California Governor Ronald Reagan, a hero of the party's right wing, Ford barely did clinch the nomination.
The democratic primaries, however, were another matter. It was a classic David vs. Goliath story with the prohibitive frontrunner, New York Senator Robert F. Kennedy finding himself in an unexpectedly right race with insurgent Georgia Governor Jimmy Carter, who came out of seemingly nowhere to mount a serious challenge to Kennedy, whose campaign had not prepared for a long, drawn out nomination fight. Kennedy found that Carter had strong support in key regions in the south; indeed it was Carter's stunning upset in the Florida primary that really established him as a serious threat to Kennedy. Up to that point Carter had made a name for himself by finishing solidly in 2nd place in Iowa, New Hampshire, Massachusetts, and Vermont, but it was Florida that really made people take notice. Carter would go on to win four out of the next seven contests, mostly in the southern states of North Carolina, Texas, and his home state of Georgia, but he also managed to win another upset, this time in Indiana, proving he could win in outside the south. Kennedy, however, picked up key wins in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. It was ultimately these wins that set the stage for Kennedy building a strong lead over Carter until, following Kennedy's win in the vital Michigan primary, Carter was forced to concede.
Kennedy finally had the democratic Presidential nomination in hand. He had come close eight years prior before being shot at the Ambassador Hotel in Los Angeles after winning the California primary. It was touch and go for nearly a week, but Bobby survived; he was, however, forced to drop out of the race, essentially handing the nomination to then Vice President Hubert Humphrey, who would go on to lose to Richard Nixon in the general election. Many urged Kennedy to run in '72, but Bobby saw the polls showing a wide lead for Nixon over most of the democratic field and while a Nixon/Kennedy matchup was by far the closest of the potential matchups in hypothetical polling, Bobby wisely sat out 1972 and set his sights in '76. Fate had dealt him a kind hand - or was it Richard Nixon who did that? The fallout from Watergate had tarnished the republican party to a large degree, but Bobby also knew the democrats still had scars of their own showing from Vietnam, a war Kennedy himself had publicly opposed in '68.
Still, polls showed a relatively close race shaping up. Ford wasn't directly blamed for Watergate and Vietnam was no longer a major issue. It was clear from the polling that the southern vote would be key to any democratic victory. The south, once solidly democratic, had become a swing region thanks to unrest over the democratic-backed civil rights and voting rights acts. Republicans had taken advantage with their "southern strategy" and it had worked brilliantly, putting the south in play in a big way. Despite Ford not being overly popular in the south, Kennedy himself wasn't really either. He was viewed by many as an outside, a northern elitist, as too liberal in many ways. But more than that, many southerners simply felt Bobby Kennedy didn't understand them or their way of life. It was this fact that drove Bobby to go against the advice of the democratic party powers that be and choose Jimmy Carter himself as his running mate. The power brokers within the party wanted John Glenn on the ticket as they viewed the Senator and former astronaut as a potential future Presidential candidate, but Kennedy wasn't as confident as they were that the south would 'fall in line' on election day and Carter had proven during the primaries that he could win over voters in his home region.
President Ford, meanwhile, struggled to get away from the notion that he was somehow not "legitimate ." While he had managed to fend off Reagan for the nomination, many pundits felt Reagan might actually be the better national candidate as he was completely removed from Watergate and untouched by Nixon. For this reason, Ford was pressed hard to choose Reagan as his running mate, both to unite the party and also as an insurance policy in case Ford lost as party leaders felt Reagan could be a legitimate candidate in 1980 in the event of a GOP loss in '76. He would also give them a better shot at California, which was the key toss-up state that most felt Kennedy could not afford to lose. However, Reagan wasn't interested in the V.P. slot and instead Kansas Senator Bob Dole was chosen as Ford's running mate over Vice President Nelson Rockefeller.
Coming out of the conventions, polls were beginning to break toward Kennedy. The selection of Jimmy Carter as his running mate had shored up enough support in the south that it now appeared the region would, at worst, split evenly, which was good enough as long as Kennedy could carry California, a traditionally republican state, but one that his brother had come so close to carrying in 1960 and Lyndon Johnson did carry four years later. The other big toss-up states were Michigan, Ford's home state, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Illinois along with New Jersey, which had started polling solidly for Ford, but by fall was running dead even. The Kennedy strategy was to keep Carter close to home, campaigning in the south, particularly Texas and Georgia. Bobby himself would spend a lot of time in California, but they couldn't put all their eggs into one basket, so he often found himself in crucial Illinois and Ohio as well.
The Presidential debate - the first since Bobby's brother and Richard Nixon had shared the stage in 1960 - was held in late September and proved to be the deciding factor in the race in the eyes of most pundits. Kennedy came out against the Supreme Court's Roe v. Wade ruling for the first time, emphasizing his social conservative streak. Previously he had walked a fine line between "respecting the law" and saying abortions should be allowed in cases of rape, incest, and the health of the mother. While his position on abortion had long been suspected - even assumed by many - the campaign chose the debates as the key moment to officially come out against the ruling to hopefully appeal to social conservatives in the south. The stance alienated many liberals and women, but it likely won Kennedy at least a state or two in the south. Ford gave a thoroughly uninspiring performance and made one major gaffe, saying that "there [was] no Soviet domination of eastern Europe and there never will be under a Ford administration." The gaffe, most pundits agree, essentially sealed Ford's fate.
Following the debate, polls showed Kennedy with a n 8-10 point lead over Ford and it appeared he was headed for a big win. On election night, the choice of Jimmy Carter wound up paying off in a big way as the ticket was able to carry Texas, Louisiana, Georgia, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee, North Carolina, Kentucky, and West Virginia. Ford managed to hold onto Florida by the narrowest of margins, but when the states of Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Illinois were called for Kennedy within 20 minutes of each other the networks officially declared Robert Kennedy the next President of the United States. The democrats also gained several seats in the Senate and retained strong control of the House.
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Next up: 1980
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