Alternate Large US Cities

[History Learner]

Big Stone Gap, Virginia, might have been a regional industrial city based on steel manufacture and probably turned the "Tri-Cities" area in northeastern Tennessee/southwestern Virginia into the "Quad-Cities". Supposedly it would become the Pittsburgh of the South according to the group which had planned it, but realistically going by the terrain and regional prospects, I think growing to be the size of Kingsport or Johnson City (50-60K) in Tennessee might have been more likely.

Averting the Civil War or a quicker ending to it (Either Confederate victory or faster Union, it matters not) would be sufficient to do this, or removing Alexander Arthur somehow. Such would've left enough capital to keep up the investments into the town, which IOTL did manage to get iron furnaces from places like St. Louis; this mark lasts to this day with communities like Furnace. Such might have prevented Middlesboro over in Kentucky, as both seem to have fought for much of the same funding. Once BSG gets going, it might also hurt Kingsport as Eastman Kodak was allegedly looking at other sites, and an already developing Big Stone with good rail connections may prove more attractive. I agree it isn't likely that it would become a Pittsburgh as was extolled, but a city of 50-80,000* with a strong industrial basis certainly seems possible. Such would've also kept the nearby coal towns relevant and large, first as sources of coal for iron/steel production, and then as suburbs as the town became a city. Add in UVA deciding to locate their affiliate campus here instead of Wise, and you'd definitely have the Virginian version of Johnson City, but with the industry of Kingsport thrown in.

*Metro very easily could be over 100,000 like Kingsport and Johnson City. There's also the chance that if a CSA victory occurs, the Confederacy could seek to really develop it to increase their industrial capacity. At that point, all bets are off about population size.

 

[Dustin]

I think the 1967 riots were much more important in depopulating Baltimore.

On this, I wonder how much avoiding the major riots of the 60s in cities like Baltimore, Newark, or Detroit could help those cities retain populations that left IOTL.

 

[RySenkari]

If not for the 1900 hurricane, Galveston, Texas could have been the major port city instead of Houston. And since it's a weather-related butterfly, you wouldn't have to do much to stop the hurricane, an early enough POD butterflies it completely away.

 

[kernals12]

With intact infastructure, Charleston would have quickly reclaimed it's spot in the top 10 as more and more industry relocated to the South to take advantage of lower wages and easy access to a major deep water port.

Wages were lower there because of the total destruction of infrastructure plus the poorly educated workforce.

 

[kernals12]

On this, I wonder how much avoiding the major riots of the 60s in cities like Baltimore, Newark, or Detroit could help those cities retain populations that left IOTL.

One thing you'll notice about most of these Rust belt cities is that their populations have not declined once you include their suburbs.

 

[kernals12]

If not for the 1900 hurricane, Galveston, Texas could have been the major port city instead of Houston. And since it's a weather-related butterfly, you wouldn't have to do much to stop the hurricane, an early enough POD butterflies it completely away.

Isn't that the definition of ASB?

 

[History Learner]

Muscle Shoals, Alabama - I'll let the town itself explain what nearly happened:

In 1921, automotive tycoon Henry Ford, accompanied by Thomas Edison, came to Muscle Shoals with a vision of transforming this area into a metropolis. “I will employ one million workers at Muscle Shoals and I will build a city 75 miles long at Muscle Shoals,” stated Mr. Ford. The instant rumors of Ford’s plan hit the streets, real estate speculators began buying up land and parceling it out in 25 foot lots and putting in sidewalks and street lights. People from all over the United States bought lots, sight unseen, during this time. Mr. Ford’s offer to buy Wilson Dam for $5 million was turned down by Congress. (The initial cost of the construction of the dam was $46.5 million.) Instead, Congress, under the influence of Senator George Norris of Nebraska, later formed the Tennessee Valley Authority to develop the dam as well as the entire river valley. Senator Norris felt strongly that the public, rather than private companies, should receive the benefits from the government’s investments in Muscle Shoals. Although Ford’s plans did not turn Muscle Shoals into a huge city, it did lay the foundation for the city of Muscle Shoals.

Chicago, Illinois - Yes, I know it was already large, but it certainly could've been greater, had it successfully managed to become the center of American automobile production.

Duluth, Minnesota - U.S. Steel apparently narrowly chose expanding production in Pittsburgh over Duluth in 1911, a move which, if reversed, certainly would've brought more development.

Topeka, Kansas - Had it got the international airport over Kansas City, it could've went the Atlanta route of development.

Portland, Oregon - In the 1960s they tried to build a stadium to attract the Raiders and made a bid for the 1968 Olympics, but both ended up failing. Had they not, it would've obviously been a boon for the city.

 

[kernals12]

Muscle Shoals, Alabama - I'll let the town itself explain what nearly happened:



Chicago, Illinois - Yes, I know it was already large, but it certainly could've been greater, had it successfully managed to become the center of American automobile production.

Duluth, Minnesota - U.S. Steel apparently narrowly chose expanding production in Pittsburgh over Duluth in 1911, a move which, if reversed, certainly would've brought more development.

Topeka, Kansas - Had it got the international airport over Kansas City, it could've went the Atlanta route of development.

Portland, Oregon - In the 1960s they tried to build a stadium to attract the Raiders and made a bid for the 1968 Olympics, but both ended up failing. Had they not, it would've obviously been a boon for the city.

It's more likely that the automobile industry would've displaced some other industry.

 

[History Learner]

It's more likely that the automobile industry would've displaced some other industry.

Probably not, Chicago is large enough and could suck up labor and resources as needed from the surrounding areas that historically went to Detroit.

 

[Dustin]

One thing you'll notice about most of these Rust belt cities is that their populations have not declined once you include their suburbs.

Oh I'm very familiar with that. I also know that the riots of the 60s were contributing factors in continuing white flight, so without these riots there would be a significant number of people who would not have left these cities for the suburbs. More intact infrastructure as a result of no rioting would also help with attracting and retaining people and businesses too.

 

[matashowski]

Louisville, KY- Handwave the two major riots and the city could top 1 million. The first, the anti immigrant riot Bloody Monday in 1855, caused a massive exodus from the young city, and tarnished its reputation to immigrants for years after. A lot of the Irish and German that would've ended up in the established enclaves of Louisville ended up going to Cincinnati and Indianapolis. The second riot in 1968 following Dr. Kings murder caused another huge exodus, the destruction of an economic center, and hardening of racial lines. Remove both of these (and perhaps shift them to Indy/Cinci) and Louisville would be a much more attractive location for people to settle/stay. Its also not hindered by growth restrictions of Lexington, meaning it could expand far into the countryside.

Springfield, OH- Currently a dying Rustbelt town, population shrinks ever year, the most dangerous city in Ohio (per capita, at least as of last year). Keep the National Road Project (Which OTL was cancelled when it entered Springfield) and have Ohio State choose it as its campus (almost happened). The city would be unrecognizable.

 

[kernals12]

If the University of Michigan hadn't moved from Detroit to Ann Arbor, that would probably make a big difference.

 

[History Learner]

A Professor of mine recently made the point that the only difference between Roanoke and Charlotte was that Charlotte got an international airport and Roanoke didn't.

 

[kernals12]

A Professor of mine recently made the point that the only difference between Roanoke and Charlotte was that Charlotte got an international airport and Roanoke didn't.

I think that may be confusing cause and effect.

 

[History Learner]

I think that may be confusing cause and effect.

He's head of the geo-spatial department here and we did see this same development play out several times in the 20th Century; I cited Kansas City earlier and Atlanta is well known.

 

[Mark E.]

Nauvoo had about the same population as Chicago in the 1840s. It could become a large city if the Mormons aren’t expelled from Illinois

Chicago is on Lake Michigan which makes it very convenient for trade especially with the Erie Canal. Nauvoo doesn't offer such advantages.

Nauvoo lies on a part of the Mississippi River known as the Des Moines Rapids. They were an impediment to river travel. The Mormons antagonized the shipping industry as they charged excessive drayage fees to unload boats, move goods overland for a few miles, allow the lighter boats to float, then reload them. The rapids were eliminated when the Corps of Engineers erected a 37-foot hydroelectric dam in nearby Keokuk, Iowa in 1913. The dam's 135-MW output may not sound impressive by today's standards, but it would have brought electricity to the area quite early. Now, if the Mormons had not moved west (that changes Rocky Mountain history, including the course of the transcontinental railroad), Nauvoo could have grown quite large.

Iowa and Missouri are not on the Great Lakes, but rail/river development and commerce link them quite well to the eastern markets. Look at the Twin Cities, Quad Cities, St. Louis and Kansas City. In terms of industry, consider the unlimited water supply. Additionally, the terrain includes large river bluffs, allowing development on high ground, safe from flooding.

 

[Dr. Hochmeister]

Springfield, OH- Currently a dying Rustbelt town, population shrinks ever year, the most dangerous city in Ohio (per capita, at least as of last year). Keep the National Road Project (Which OTL was cancelled when it entered Springfield) and have Ohio State choose it as its campus (almost happened). The city would be unrecognizable.

IIRC it was also considered for the capitol of Ohio... have that happen and it may boom instead of Columbus...

 

[wtw]

Milwaukee Wisconsin, If it had kept its football team and had better race relations so there would not have been the 1968 riots it might be the little brother in the North to Chicago

 

[Mark E.]

Pretty much any village with water access and enough fertile land could become a teeming metropolis. It's pretty much a random chance since it's ultimately caused by a snowball effect. If the French had established their fur trading post further north, Milwaukee could be the 3rd largest city in America while Chicago is just some ordinary midwestern city.

That's true. The Mississippi and Ohio Rivers are full of port towns that did well in the 19th century. The largest metro areas did indeed grow but the smaller ones froze in size with rail commerce after 1880 (exception: Baton Rouge). While rivers offer advantages, they have the drawbacks of costly bridges and unpredictable flooding. Also, as a new metro area is placed on the map, we should assume it means less growth elsewhere.

Have Minneapolis and St.Paul/Pigs Eye Landing incorporated together rather than seperately. The Great Plains Ag. boom is the perfect opportunity for the milling capital of the world even in our timeline to develop into a major rail and refining/production hub that would create the urban sprawl and infastructure backbone for a metropolis.

The Twin Cities are a successfully large city. The American system of city limits is misleading, as it is the metro area that counts. The core cities of St. Louis and New Orleans are quite small compared to the metro areas.

 

[Expat]

It's the city I know best, so I'll make the case for Washington DC.

There are a lot of reasons why the city could have taken off with just a few tweaks, not needing a dramatic POD. No self-government until the late 1970s means the federal government can elect to use the city as they please. Striking down the height limit, which bases maximum building height on a factor relating to street width, would be a place to start. Earlier demise of streetcars would've put a major damper on the suburban real estate market (in DC at least, streetcar suburbs were definitely a thing).

Other interesting, more dramatic ideas include an FDR administration that's braver on the civil rights front. Most laws make it easier to stop new people from coming in than to try to restrict the type of people who come in, so I can see a lot less construction overall in such a society. But not in the one city run directly by the federal government!

The US in WWI from the beginning would go a long way. The size of the government balloons in a very short time and new office space and housing needs to go up quickly. At the very least you might see rowhouses built out to the border of the District. In real life, detached housing starts appearing fairly close to the city center, and all of it is certainly newer than the Great War era.