Alternate 1918 CP strategy

[Magnum]

Going to keep this short, since a restart ate my whole previous thread...

The OTL plan of knocking out Russia, transferring west and knocking France out before the Americans arrive did not work (You don't say, Cpt. Obvious...)
What this thread is not about is finding a way for getting the above to work better, whether by taking Amiens (have my doubts its fall would be that disastrous, but that's irrelevant here), pulling out quicker from Russia or any other variations on that theme.

Instead, this is about something else, namely focusing on the dreaded "secondary" fronts.

This bit caught my attention:

On 21 March, Erich Ludendorff launched the Spring Offensive on the Western Front, coinciding with the start of the first Transjordan attack; overnight the Palestine theatre of war went from the British government's first priority to a "side show."[14] Because of the threat to Allied armies in Europe, 24 battalions – 60,000 mostly-British soldiers – were sent to Europe as reinforcements. They were replaced by Indian infantry and cavalry from the British Indian Army.[2][15][16]

The large troop movements these withdrawals and reinforcements required caused a substantial reorganisation of the EEF.[17] Until September, when Allenby's force would be completely reformed and retrained, it would not be in a position to successfully attack both the Transjordan on the right and the Plain of Sharon on the left as well as continuing to hold the centre in the Judean Hills. In the meantime, it seemed essential to occupy the Transjordan to establish closer ties with Britain's important Arab ally, Feisal and the Hejaz Arabs. Until direct contact was made, Allenby could not completely support this force and he knew that if Feisal was defeated, German and Ottoman forces could turn the whole length of the EEF's right flank. This would make their hard-won positions shaky all the way to Jerusalem, and could result in a humiliating withdrawal, possibly to Egypt.

as well as this:

Bolsheviks took power in Russia during the October Revolution and announced that Russia would be withdrawing from war. Talks with the Central Powers started in Brest-Litovsk on 3 December 1917 and on the 17th a cease-fire went into effect. Peace talks soon followed, starting on 22 December.[3]

As negotiations began, the Central Powers presented demands for the territory that they had occupied during the 1914–1916 period, including Poland, Lithuania and western Latvia. The Bolsheviks decided not to accept these terms and instead withdrew from the negotiations, eventually resulting in the breakdown of the ceasefire.[4] Leon Trotsky, head of the Russian delegation, hoped to delay talks until a revolution occurred within Germany, which would force them out of the war.[5]

Trotsky was the leading advocate of the "neither war nor peace" policy and on 28 January 1918 announced that Soviet Russia considered the war over.[6] This was unacceptable to the Germans who were already transporting troops to the Western Front. The German Chief of Staff, general Max Hoffmann, responded by signing the peace treaty with Ukrainian People's Republic on 9 February and announced an end to the cease-fire with Russia in two-days time on 17 February, leading to the resumption of hostilities.[7]

While negotiations were ongoing, Soviet Commander-in-Chief Nikolai Krylenko oversaw the demobilization and democratization of the Russian army, introducing elected commanders, ending all ranks, and sending troops home. On 29 January, Krylenko ordered demobilization of the whole army.[8]

So, here's the basic gist of the proposal:

1. Op. Faustschlag is launched 10 days early, on February 8th, to give the Bolshevik enough time to gut the Russian army
2. They don't stop early, at Narwa and Minsk. Instead, they push on. In the words of general Hoffman:

It is the most comical war I have ever known. We put a handful of infantrymen with machine guns and one gun onto a train and rush them off to the next station; they take it, make prisoners of the Bolsheviks, pick up few more troops, and so on. This proceeding has, at any rate, the charm of novelty.[1][11]

They take at least Petrograd (which Lenin had already left OTL, expecting it to fall), and ideally Moscow as well.
3. After the initial push, they begin withdrawing troops around March-April, and some of them even earlier.
4. The troops are redeployed not to France, but to help the Ottomans, the Balkan front and the Austrians in Italy.
4.1 In Italy, Second Piave takes place with the fabled German stormtroopers turning the Italian left flank, resulting in another rout of the Italian army, large enough that Italy sues for peace, but not before the British panic and withdraw troops from Palestine.
4.2 In Palestine, Allenby's fears are realized, and the CP's defeat Faisal and turn the Entente flank, forcing them to abandon Jerusalem and pull back to Egypt. Two years worth of effort to build up
4.3 In Mesopotamia, the somewhat overextended British forces are likewise counterattacked, leading to another disaster similar to the Siege of Kut and the recapture of Baghdad
4.4 In the Balkans, the withdrawal of Italy opens up a huge gap on the Entente left, and here the final troops to be withdrawn from Russia are sent, turning the Allied flank, forcing them to abandon Greece entirely. Maybe they get lucky and score a large haul of prisoners as well
4.5 In Persia, Dunsterville's force is pulled back entirely by the British in order to stabilize the Mesopotamian front
4.6 The Ottomans take Azerbaijan as OTL
4.7 In France, the Germans defend throughout 1918, trading space for time and withdrawing from defense line to defense line, and keep feeding troops from the Italian and Balkan fronts later on to, as these become available.

5. Endgame is to offer a negotiated peace, with apparently generous terms, from a seemingly strong position, banking on a collapse of American will to fight after their soldiers keep getting sent over the top.

Something like:
- Germany withdraws from Petrograd, Moscow and most of Russia, keeping Poland, Baltics plus Ukraine as a sort of protectorate
- status quo ante borders in the west
- Entente gets to keep all German colonies
- some gains for A-H, Bulgaria and the Ottomans at the expense of Serbia and Greece
- southern Mesopotamia and Arabia south of Aqaba to the British
- dropping of Ottoman claims on Egypt and Cyprus
- withdrawal of CP forces from Persia, where British influence is recognized

Honestly, I myself have severe doubts this can work, but I wanted to put it out there, see what everyone thinks

 

[AlexG]

Honestly, I myself have severe doubts this can work, but I wanted to put it out there, see what everyone thinks

You’re right about that. The reason the German high command did what they did is because there was no other alternative. They did the math and knew that by fall 1918 Germany would be starving to death and that only a knockout blow to France could end the war.

 

[VonPelt]

Capturing large cities in Russia might be more problematic than you are imagining despite a collapse of the Russians. So maybe see if you can simply move the timetable up a few days but otherwise keep things OTL. Maybe earlier redeployment due to the lack of resistance.

The other issue is logistics in the other fronts. Italy should be doable, but would the Germans be able to keep stronger forces supplied in the Middle East? And I am not convinced that the British in Mesopotamia would fold in a mirror of Kut.

Lastly, how would the German supply situation look like in general? Not only military goods, but food and consumer goods? Food from the Baltic conquest might help, but would it be enough?

Although maybe the overall situation would not deteriorate as quickly/badly because there'd be no need to sally the High Seas Fleet for a better negotiating position if your strategy is to knock Italy out first and just bleed the enemies in the West. Militarily, they might be able to hold the line, even against the entente since defence favours the defenders significantly. Therefore no Kiel mutiny.

 

[Bregil]

If (and that's a big "IF") they could hold decisively through December of 1918 (ie: butterfly the Hundred Days) then I think a negotiated peace could be possible. If word gets out to the various Entente populations that the CP is offering to negotiate then their leaders (including in the US) will have a very difficult time refusing (and that's not considering the reaction of the troops in the trenches).

 

[Magnum]

To what extent would the Entente governments be willing to consider a negotiated solution if the CPs look good on paper, with the secondary fronts in their favor and France still being a stalemate?

 

[Mikestone8]

You’re right about that. The reason the German high command did what they did is because there was no other alternative. They did the math and knew that by fall 1918 Germany would be starving to death and that only a knockout blow to France could end the war.

They had no alternative because of the anticipated arrival of US troops would make Germany's position hopeless.
l
There is no evidence that the food situation was a major consideration. In his Recollections, Ludendorff doesn't even mention it, though it have been a perfect justification for him. Nor does Prince Max of Baden, whose principal worries as late as October 1918 were US forces, tanks and the imminent loss of Rumanian oil. Re the food situation he makes only a passing comment that things were very bad in the poorer parts of Berlin.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

If the Western Front isn’t reinforced with the troops reclaimed from Russia, there is the obvious risk that the Entente can force a breakthrough. A breakthrough on the Western Front puts Germany at risk. All the gains in Italy, the Balkans and the Middle East will be for nothing if French and British troops are on the Rhine.

 

[Magnum]

If the Western Front isn’t reinforced with the troops reclaimed from Russia, there is the obvious risk that the Entente can force a breakthrough. A breakthrough on the Western Front puts Germany at risk. All the gains in Italy, the Balkans and the Middle East will be for nothing if French and British troops are on the Rhine.

The trick is to redeploy men and gear from Italy and the Balkans to France, as soon as these fronts are settled

 

[Deleted member 94680]

The trick is to redeploy men and gear from Italy and the Balkans to France, as soon as these fronts are settled

I understand that but OTL the WAllies broke through in late 1918, forcing Ludendorff to advise the Kaiser the War was lost.

Here, there are less troops on the Western Front as they’re adventuring around Italy and the Balkans, so any Entente attack will have a greater chance of success.

If these German offensives are more successful due to the increased Heer presence, the obvious strategic counterstroke is an offensive on the Western Front. The Entente will be starting from a better position as the OTL “peace offensives” won’t have happened and there will be less German troops to oppose them.

Just because Ludendorff’s strategy didn’t work OTL it doesn’t mean it wasn’t the best strategy.