Allied strategy if Germany sits tight after Poland?

Ok, as we all know what would happen in the long run if Germany just sat there after taking Poland, but come spring of 1940, what would the allies do? Would France push out of the Maginot Line, or would the Phoney War continue?

For a bit of specifics, the exact change I'm looking for no invasion of the Low Countries. The invasion of Denmark and Norway are up to you, and infact I would prefer discussion both ways.

Important note: I'm going to say this now, as my topics seem to get derailed alot with this. I KNOW why the Low Countries were invaded. That isn't the POINT of this thread. Feel free to discuss alternate German strategy, but don't argue for the invasion of the low countries. This thread is about what would happen if they were not invaded.
 
The idea behind the Allied plan to defeat Germany was all about economics. That's why they didn't launch a attack into Germany during Fall Weiss. They knew what defeated Germany during WWI was the blockade. If Germany wanted to die on the Maginot Line or in Flanders Fields that was fine with the Allies but there weren't going to risk another generation for nothing. It could go ugly though. The Allies were developping plans to capture the Swedish ore-mines and bombing raids to Baku.
 
the french did launch one operation during the invasion of poland. the 4th north african division and couple battalions of tanks rolled forward against the west wall. they encountered large numbers of mines and dragons teeth. they suffered a few casualties and then gave up

an attack against the west wall would be almost as suicidal as a direct attack on the maginot line. once the armor was in reserve behind the west wall the initiative passes back to the germans no matter what. france lacked the proper doctrine and mobile resupply and refueling ability to conduct serious offensive mechanized warfare in 1940
 
The idea behind the Allied plan to defeat Germany was all about economics. That's why they didn't launch a attack into Germany during Fall Weiss. They knew what defeated Germany during WWI was the blockade. If Germany wanted to die on the Maginot Line or in Flanders Fields that was fine with the Allies but there weren't going to risk another generation for nothing. It could go ugly though. The Allies were developping plans to capture the Swedish ore-mines and bombing raids to Baku.

Hmmm, indeed, a major question is how long can this state of affairs last. Assuming the rest of Europe stays on good terms with Germany, can they last? If they can, how long untill one side gets tired?

Edit: While I was posting...

the french did launch one operation during the invasion of poland. the 4th north african division and couple battalions of tanks rolled forward against the west wall. they encountered large numbers of mines and dragons teeth. they suffered a few casualties and then gave up

an attack against the west wall would be almost as suicidal as a direct attack on the maginot line. once the armor was in reserve behind the west wall the initiative passes back to the germans no matter what. france lacked the proper doctrine and mobile resupply and refueling ability to conduct serious offensive mechanized warfare in 1940

What are the chances for a British landing near Wilhelmshaven or Kiel?
 
Hmmm, indeed, a major question is how long can this state of affairs last. Assuming the rest of Europe stays on good terms with Germany, can they last? If they can, how long untill one side gets tired?


france would try to come to a deal with the germans if enough time passed. national mobilization was devastating to their economy both due to the cost of weapons and the loss of productivity of workers called to serve. germany was far more built up to withstand this. france burnt out their warrior spirit in world war 1 sitting forever in defensive positions is debilitating on morale. if the germans offered a status quo pro ante after more than 18 months of inactivity they would seriously consider it
 
This plays into French hands perfectly. They were waiting until 1941 to launch a proper assault in to Germany because by then they would have superior forces. Italy will stay out of the war unless Germany crushes France but thats unlikely. In my opi nion the French will probably run out of steam and then get thrown back over the Maginot line by the end of 1941. By mid-1942 the USA will have joined the war and troops will start to flood in as the Germans are pushed east. The Soviets will attack when the end is in sight grabbing the rest of Poland and possibly a part of Eastern Germany but it's unlikely they'll move into the Balkans.
 
This plays into French hands perfectly. They were waiting until 1941 to launch a proper assault in to Germany because by then they would have superior forces. Italy will stay out of the war unless Germany crushes France but thats unlikely. In my opi nion the French will probably run out of steam and then get thrown back over the Maginot line by the end of 1941. By mid-1942 the USA will have joined the war and troops will start to flood in as the Germans are pushed east. The Soviets will attack when the end is in sight grabbing the rest of Poland and possibly a part of Eastern Germany but it's unlikely they'll move into the Balkans.

I feel that US involvement is unlikely. This situation would put Japan in a vastly different situation, plus the impact of sub warfare would be quite a bit less.
 
I feel that US involvement is unlikely. This situation would put Japan in a vastly different situation, plus the impact of sub warfare would be quite a bit less.

Nevertheless FDR was desperate to get involved he will find a way, unless Germany stops the Submarine warfare he'll find it.
 
france would try to come to a deal with the germans if enough time passed. national mobilization was devastating to their economy both due to the cost of weapons and the loss of productivity of workers called to serve. germany was far more built up to withstand this. france burnt out their warrior spirit in world war 1 sitting forever in defensive positions is debilitating on morale. if the germans offered a status quo pro ante after more than 18 months of inactivity they would seriously consider it

I disagree. Just as in WWI France (and the Commonwealth) would in time change their economy into war-mode and will probably begin to outproduce Germany late-1940. What cracked the French morale in WWI was devastating useless offensives. Nevertheless, I do agree that the Allies will need to do something from time to time though. Hence the peripheral plans on Northern Sweden and Baku.

The best thing for Germany would be to sit tight and keep the status quo on the Balkan and the USSR. That way they can keep on trading with the rest of Europe to the very least. Don't know if it stays quiet on the Eastern Front though. Italy and the revanchist powers will probably want to use the War to fulfil their strategic aims. When that happens it's all up in the air.
 
I disagree. Just as in WWI France (and the Commonwealth) would in time change their economy into war-mode and will probably begin to outproduce Germany late-1940. What cracked the French morale in WWI was devastating useless offensives. Nevertheless, I do agree that the Allies will need to do something from time to time though. Hence the peripheral plans on Northern Sweden and Baku.

The best thing for Germany would be to sit tight and keep the status quo on the Balkan and the USSR. That way they can keep on trading with the rest of Europe to the very least. Don't know if it stays quiet on the Eastern Front though. Italy and the revanchist powers will probably want to use the War to fulfil their strategic aims. When that happens it's all up in the air.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Baku deep inside the USSR... Surely that wouldn't be an issue ITTL...

(Maybe thinking of Ploesti?)
 
Correct me if I'm wrong, but isn't Baku deep inside the USSR... Surely that wouldn't be an issue ITTL...

(Maybe thinking of Ploesti?)

Hence the craziness of the plan :)

From what I've read Germany and the USSR were generally seen as allies ever since the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

On another note, I wonder how long it will take until everyone gangs up on Romania or Yugoslavia.
 
The US Ambassador to France, W. Bullitt, dispatched a telegram to Washington concerning "the possibilities of bombing and demolition of Baku" which were being discussed in Paris at the time. Charles de Gaulle was extremely critical of the plan according to both his wartime and postwar statements. Such ideas, he believed, were made by some "crazy heads that were thinking more of how to destroy Baku than of resisting Berlin". In his report submitted on February 22, 1940, to French Prime Minister Édouard Daladier, General Maurice Gamelin believed the Soviets would fall into crisis if those sources were lost.

As per Wikipedia.
 
Hence the craziness of the plan :)

From what I've read Germany and the USSR were generally seen as allies ever since the Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact.

On another note, I wonder how long it will take until everyone gangs up on Romania or Yugoslavia.

With Italy probably out, Yugo probably will be too, or maybe a side war without German or Allied intervention. (Someone wrote a TL close to that I believe)
 
Its first meeting was at Abbeville on 12 September 1939 [1] with Britain represented by the Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, and Lord Chatfield, the French delegation being headed by their Prime Minister, Édouard Daladier, and General Maurice Gamelin.[2] The next meeting took place at Hove on 22 September 1939. At both meetings, discussion centred on Italy and whether it would be possible to deploy military force at Salonika or Istanbul without provoking Benito Mussolini. With its huge army mobilised but idle, the French feared an ebbing of military morale and were accordingly bellicose and impatient for action; Britain, on the other hand, shrank from such measures. At the Hove meeting there was also discussion about munitions production and reinforcements to the air and anti-aircraft defences in France. The British party at Hove consisted of Neville Chamberlain (Prime Minister), Lord Halifax (Foreign Secretary), Sir Alexander Cadogan (Permanent Under-Secretary at the Foreign Office) and Edward Bridges (Cabinet Secretary). France was represented by Édouard Daladier (Prime Minister), General Maurice Gamelin, Admiral François Darlan (C-in-C French Navy), Raoul Dautry (Minister of Munitions), and Jean Monnet (Chairman of the Franco-British Economic Co-ordination Committee. [3][4][5][6] Chamberlain stated that the Allies could not prevent a German intervention into Yugoslavia.[7] At this and the two further meetings in 1939, on 17 November (in Paris) and 19 December, the French turned down a British scheme to bomb industrial targets in the Ruhr if the Germans were to invade Belgium. The French view was that such action would not stop the invasion of Belgium, but it would risk retaliation by the Luftwaffe against Britain and France. [8]
The meeting of the SWC held in Paris on 5 February 1940 was the first to be attended by Winston Churchill, who, as First Lord of the Admiralty, had been invited to participate by Neville Chamberlain.[9] Here the British rejected France’s proposal for an expedition to Petsamo in Finland to help the Finns in the Winter War for fear that this would provoke Soviet Russia. Sir Alexander Cadogan, the Permanent Under-Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs, described it as a ‘silly scheme’. However, a French plan to send forces to Narvik was approved – this being dependent on agreement from Norway and Sweden. The meeting was described by General Ironside as having been harmonious with ‘everyone purring with pleasure. Wondered if we should all be in the state if we had a little adversity to touch us up.’ In the event, Norway and Sweden, fearful of compromising their neutrality, did not consent to the Narvik plan. The Scandinavian view was interpreted differently by Britain and France – the former taking the view that the operation should be cancelled, but the French maintaining that it had been agreed that the operation should proceed regardless of opposition. However, events overtook the impasse when, on 13 March, the Finns agreed an armistice with the Soviet Union.[10]
The sixth meeting of the SWC was held in London on 28 March 1940 with Britain represented by the Prime Minister, Neville Chamberlain, Lord Halifax, Winston Churchill, Oliver Stanley and Sir Kingsley Wood. This was the first to be attended by Paul Reynaud, the new French Prime Minister, who was accompanied by César Campinchi, the Naval Minister, Victor Laurent-Eynac[11], the Aviation Minister, M. Charles Corbin (the French Ambassador), M. Alexis Léger[12], General Maurice Gamelin, Admiral Darlan, General Vuillemin and General Koeltz. [13] The British were firmly opposed to French plans to bomb Russian oil fields in the Caucasus in order to deprive Germany of Soviet oil supplies. The French agreed to what later became known as Operation Royal Marine, the floating of mines up the Rhine to damage bridges and disrupt barge traffic. However, Reynaud was unable to obtain the approval of his cabinet for the mining of the Rhine; accordingly the British refused to go along with the plan to mine the waters off the Norwegian coast at Narvik. [14] Politically, the main thrust of this meeting was joint communiqué declaring that: 'Both Governments mutually undertake that during the present war they will neither negotiate nor conclude an armistice or treaty of peace except by mutual agreement. They undertake to maintain after conclusion of peace a community of action for so long as may be necessary'.[15]
In Paris on 5 April, at a meeting which was not of the SWC, Churchill pressed for Operation Royal Marine but, fearing German reprisals, the French refused to countenance any mining of the Rhine. Churchill therefore decided that Britain alone would undertake the mining off Narvik; this action (Operation Wilfred) was planned for 8 April.[16] However, in the meantime, the Germans had launched Operation Weserübung, the invasion of Norway and Denmark. Paul Reynaud, Édouard Daladier and Admiral Darlan flew to London for an emergency meeting of the SWC on 9 April.[17] Here it was resolved that an Anglo-French task force would be sent to Norway; but the operation (Plan R 4) was a failure - not only did it prove impossible to stop the export of iron ore from Scandinavia to Germany, but the troops had to be evacuated in what was known as Operation Alphabet.
A further meeting of the Council took place in Paris on 22 and 23 April when it was agreed that the Allies would stand fast in Norway; Trondheim and Narvik would continue to be the main objectives. It was also decided that the RAF would, without further discussion, bomb the Ruhr if the Germans were to invade Holland or Belgium.[18]
When the Supreme War Council met on 27 April, the French hoped that Britain would postpone the evacuation of Norway, but this was not to be. Reynaud was furious, deploring 'the old men [in London] who do not know how to take a risk', and returning to Paris with influenza. There was acrimony on both sides - the French convinced that Albion was indeed perfidious and the British stereotyping their ally as 'temperamental'.[19]

From the article on the Anglo-French Supreme War Council, Phoney War section.

I think that some of the plans that were discarded by either the French or the British would see the light if the war would keep being Phoney even if it would only be to show the populace that something was done.
 
From the article on the Anglo-French Supreme War Council, Phoney War section.

I think that some of the plans that were discarded by either the French or the British would see the light if the war would keep being Phoney even if it would only be to show the populace that something was done.

Yeah, was looking around in those areas earlier. Norway certainly is a good target.
 
By 1941 the French Army has finished the rearmament plan delayed by the massive strikes which brought down the Blum Administration and can field no less than eight armored divisions. Meanwhile the BEF has 30+ infantry divisions with a higher degree of mechanization than the French or Germans and 4-5 armored divisions.

The situation in the air is even less favorable for Germany and Italy is now out of the war for the duration.

Stalemate? Not likely given Hitler's psychotic need to destroy Russia...
 
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