Alliance System sans Dreadnoughts

[Deleted member 9338]

How will the alliance system change in Europe (and the world possibly) is the Kaiser would have stopped after the Wittelsbach class. This will give Getman a fleet in the Baltic and some power in the North Sea without causing any issues with Great Britain. The Admiratity may even give agreement the a small class of Dreadnoughts in the early 1910s.

I can see Great Britain not as concerned with the continent and even move Italy closer to Germany as there is less concern of Great Britain. The Ottomans may stay out of the alliance system or even join Great Britain as a "third way".

 

[Deleted member 9338]

No one has any thoughts on this?

 

[NHBL]

The problem isn't Germany building dreadnoughts, the problem is Germany building enough dreadnoughts to be a significant threat to Britain. Germany can't NOT build some, or it looks like a second or third rate power. Perhaps classes of only two would be appropriate--enough to tangle with France or Russia, but not enugh to threaten Britain. (The slower pace might even result in better designs; that hex turret array was not all that good.)

 

[Deleted member 9338]

But that is what I am saying 10 predreadnoughts and a few Dreadnoughts to handle Russia or France. Now getting back to possible alliances.....

 

[zert]

It may still keep Britain wary of Germany due to their policy of not wanting one empire to dominate Europe.

 

[Riain]

It was recently discussed at length how Britain built the same amount of pre dreadnoughts per year or whatever when there was no German Navy as they did after the Germans Naval laws. There is no amount of battleships that Germany can build that Britain won't use to further justify the decades long building programme that takes the funding out of year to year budgets.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

How will the alliance system change in Europe (and the world possibly) is the Kaiser would have stopped after the Wittelsbach class. This will give Getman a fleet in the Baltic and some power in the North Sea without causing any issues with Great Britain. The Admiratity may even give agreement the a small class of Dreadnoughts in the early 1910s.

I can see Great Britain not as concerned with the continent and even move Italy closer to Germany as there is less concern of Great Britain. The Ottomans may stay out of the alliance system or even join Great Britain as a "third way".

One of the main British concerns wasn't neccessarily the quantity of the German dreadnoughts, it was more the quality. When the design characteristics of the German dreadnoughts (guns, armour and most importantly fuel storage/range) became apparent it was clear they were being designed to challenge the British Dreadnought designs. If the Germans had built broadly similar designs but with more bunkerage and therefore greater range, it's possible that many in Britain would simply see them as a Great Power building a Navy to protect it's Empire and trade. The German Navy (and the Prussian Navy before that) was often docked and supplied in British ports, Tirpitz even said as a young midshipman he felt more at home in Britain than he did in Germany. If the Germans build 'proper' Dreadnoughts with long range capabilities or smaller 'Baltic' designs, then maybe the British would even look fondly on it ("ah, look, our boy is growing up") and see them as just another Naval power.

 

[RodentRevolution]

It was recently discussed at length how Britain built the same amount of pre dreadnoughts per year or whatever when there was no German Navy as they did after the Germans Naval laws. There is no amount of battleships that Germany can build that Britain won't use to further justify the decades long building programme that takes the funding out of year to year budgets.

There is a big difference though between the standard Lords of the Admiralty "OMG they are building ships, we have hardly any ships at all, we must build some at once!" memo to Parliament and actually thinking someone a threatening threat that is frightening. The whole point of the exercise is that the British will build its big, big fleet of battleships but it may be a Royal Navy that is still in its customary state of being able to say "we'll put some there and some there and oh, that place is jolly and sunny so we'll stick some there" rather than "We need the Fleet concentrated" will not feel so actually nervous of Germany.

Now there is still the fly in the ointment of invading Belgium which is seen in Britain as prerequisite step to a Riddle in the Sands or as we might call it a Sea Lion type invasion but if the British were not expecting to go into action against Germany they might not have any plans nor ententes in place which might in turn make Germany a less nervous bunny. Not a given there were a lot of factors driving the Junker class's nerves but a maybe.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Now there is still the fly in the ointment of invading Belgium which is seen in Britain as prerequisite step to a Riddle in the Sands or as we might call it a Sea Lion type invasion but if the British were not expecting to go into action against Germany they might not have any plans nor ententes in place which might in turn make Germany a less nervous bunny. Not a given there were a lot of factors driving the Junker class's nerves but a maybe.

Well, if Belgium is invaded (there are currently at least 2 other threads discussing this) then there is a chance Britain will declare against the invader due to treaty obligations. If Britain isn't aligned to France/Russia though (as Germany with it's 'frendlier' fleet is seen as less of a threat) would Britain be as interested in 'continetal matters'?

Would an invasion of Belgium (large or small, French or German) simply result in a BEF sent to Ghent/Ostend to reinforce the Belgian Army and preserve the borders?

 

[RodentRevolution]

Would an invasion of Belgium (large or small, French or German) simply result in a BEF sent to Ghent/Ostend to reinforce the Belgian Army and preserve the borders?

I think the British would likely be content to secure the ports, the borders would be an issue for later depending on the exact nature of the conflict. As you yourself point out Britain's treaty commitment to Belgium and all else was really focused on British interests. In general assume the British will do the minimum required to secure the British from invasion. With Germany in 1914 minimum was a quite maximal effort but ITTL it may be different.

 

[Incognitia]

Well, if Belgium is invaded (there are currently at least 2 other threads discussing this) then there is a chance Britain will declare against the invader due to treaty obligations. If Britain isn't aligned to France/Russia though (as Germany with it's 'frendlier' fleet is seen as less of a threat) would Britain be as interested in 'continetal matters'?

My guess is Britain would impose limits on the naval war - no bombardment of coastal towns by either French or German warships, no blockades - and try to make sure the peace terms didn't cripple any powers so far there was no balance of power on the continent.

 

[Deleted member 9338]

I think the British would likely be content to secure the ports, the borders would be an issue for later depending on the exact nature of the conflict. As you yourself point out Britain's treaty commitment to Belgium and all else was really focused on British interests. In general assume the British will do the minimum required to secure the British from invasion. With Germany in 1914 minimum was a quite maximal effort but ITTL it may be different.

If the Germans do invade Belgium, I can see an armed British neutral securing the ports with Germany's blessing

 

[LordKalvert]

The Entente was originally designed as a means of settling quarrels with France and then Russia. Unfortunately, France and Britain decided to settle their differences between themselves by ignoring German rights in Morocco. This led to the First Morocco Crisis. Germany was hoping to separate France and Britain but ended up driving them together Eventually France and Russia learn that Britain would back them on just about anything

It's not the Naval Race that is doing it. Germany was never the naval threat to Britain that France and Russia were and by 1914 France and Russia are wildly outspending Germany and even Germany + Austria who wasn't shabby in the naval race. Indeed, by 1914 France + Russia are outbuilding the British even if they were far behind

One would suspect the British of diverting France and Russia to Europe and away from themselves but that would be giving the British more credit for planning than they probably deserve

Italy is always a wild card in the Alliance- she has conflicts with both France and Austria and somewhat fears Russian domination of the Balkans. On the other hand, Austria is an ancient enemy and the Austrians had treated the Italians with contempt for years. Most notably in the neutrality agreement with Russia signed on the eve of the Russo-Japanese War. Each pledged neutrality if the other went to war except in the Balkans. Who did Austria have in mind?

The discussions on the Ottomans leads to the very interesting question: What about the Italo-Turkish War of 1911?

 

[Deleted member 94680]

Britain was concerned with the control of the Channel Ports. IOTL the Germans approaching the Channel ports and contending to control them post-war (if they were victorious) was considered a 'red line' in London IIRC.

I've toyed with a TL that ends with a resurection of the Talleyrand Partition Plan and the Belgian Channel ports being added to the French Channel Ports to make a "Flemish Free State".

 

[Deleted member 94680]

It's not the Naval Race that is doing it. Germany was never the naval threat to Britain that France and Russia were and by 1914 France and Russia are wildly outspending Germany and even Germany + Austria who wasn't shabby in the naval race. Indeed, by 1914 France + Russia are outbuilding the British even if they were far behind

One would suspect the British of diverting France and Russia to Europe and away from themselves but that would be giving the British more credit for planning than they probably deserve

Where did you dig up that piece of unique knowledge from? German was absolutely the threat to Britain in the Naval sphere, outstripping Russia and France by a long way. The numbers might (I'm not 100% on fleet sizes) not put Germany second in the list (I'm pretty sure they were, Europe-wise at least) but the quality of the German Battleships and Battlecruisers were considerd a direct threat to the RN. The junk the French were putting out was laughable to many in the RN's hierarchy and Russia hadn't been a 'threat' navally since 1856.

Russia was a threat land-wise towards India and the Empire's Middle Eastern interests. The Great Game was very real and many in London and Delhi were consumed by it. The French Empire butted up against the British Empire pretty much all over the world, there were constant border incidents and competitions for markets and resources.

German had what? A few of the less attractive Pacific Islands, the bits of Africa even the Belgians didn't want and a port in China. Big friggin' whoop.

The only thing the continental power Germany and it's second-rate Empire had that was threatening to Britain was it's large, modern and ever-growing Navy.

In response to that, Britain made deals with the two Great Powers it had been in direct competition with for a hundered years, to focus all of her efforts on defeating.

Hardly the actions of a Nation that didn't consider something to be a threat.

 

[LordKalvert]

Where did you dig up that piece of unique knowledge from? German was absolutely the threat to Britain in the Naval sphere, outstripping Russia and France by a long way. The numbers might (I'm not 100% on fleet sizes) not put Germany second in the list (I'm pretty sure they were, Europe-wise at least) but the quality of the German Battleships and Battlecruisers were considerd a direct threat to the RN. The junk the French were putting out was laughable to many in the RN's hierarchy and Russia hadn't been a 'threat' navally since 1856.

Russia was a threat land-wise towards India and the Empire's Middle Eastern interests. The Great Game was very real and many in London and Delhi were consumed by it. The French Empire butted up against the British Empire pretty much all over the world, there were constant border incidents and competitions for markets and resources.

German had what? A few of the less attractive Pacific Islands, the bits of Africa even the Belgians didn't want and a port in China. Big friggin' whoop.

The only thing the continental power Germany and it's second-rate Empire had that was threatening to Britain was it's large, modern and ever-growing Navy.

In response to that, Britain made deals with the two Great Powers it had been in direct competition with for a hundered years, to focus all of her efforts on defeating.

Hardly the actions of a Nation that didn't consider something to be a threat.

Here are a couple of charts about the state of the Naval Race in 1914

https://warandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/great-powers-naval-expenditure1.jpg

https://warandsecurity.files.wordpress.com/2014/08/naval-strength-19141.jpg

It is clear that by 1914, the Franco-Russians were wildly outspending Germany and outbuilding her as well

France-Russia 34,000,000 pounds to Germany's 22,000,000 in a rolling five year average. In 1914,Russian navy spending alone outpaces Germany's for the first time since the Japanese War

The French have 8 dreadnoughts building to Germany's 5 and Russia is also has 7
In Battlecruisers The Russians are also outbuilding the Germans 4-3 with France building none

While the German navy is larger in 1914 that state of affairs isn't going to last long.

 

[Deleted member 94680]

It is clear that by 1914, the Franco-Russians were wildly outspending Germany and outbuilding her as well

France and Russia were two separate countries. Combining their spend to come up with a bigger figure does not make either of them separately a bigger threat than Germany.

France-Russia 34,000,000 pounds to Germany's 22,000,000 in a rolling five year average. In 1914,Russian navy spending alone outpaces Germany's for the first time since the Japanese War

That figure, again the combined spends of two separate countries (which therefore suggests neither was spending more individually) covers the period after the Russo-Japanese War where the Russians need to pretty much rebuild their fleet. That costs a lot - in that period the Germans have lost no major ships, therefore their spend is going to additional new warships.

The French have 8 dreadnoughts building to Germany's 5 and Russia is also has 7
In Battlecruisers The Russians are also outbuilding the Germans 4-3 with France building none

But the French only have 4 dreadnought battleships in their fleet pre-WWI, the Courbet class (Courbet, France, Jean Bart and Paris) the Danton class is pre-dreadnought. The Bretagne class were completed during the war and the Normandie class were never completed.

The Russians may be building 4 to the Germans 3 in regards to battlecruisers but they are the first battlecruisers the Russians have built. The Germans already have 5 at sea by 1914, meaning if those builds are completed (the Russians never were) the Germans would still have 8 to the Russians 4. The same goes for the battleship figures - the Russians are building more in 1914 but the German fleet is already bigger in regards new ships.

While the German navy is larger in 1914 that state of affairs isn't going to last long.

As of 1914, the German navy was the second largest in Europe and the most hostile to the RN - ergo, the biggest threat.

 

[RodentRevolution]

As of 1914, and in the the German navy was the second largest in Europe and the most hostile to the RN - ergo, the biggest threat.

Further but the reason for the reduction in German build numbers by 1914 was simply that by 1912 they had run out of money to compete with the British in naval armaments while keeping ahead of France and Russia on land. They had quite deliberately and specifically tried to build a 'Risk Fleet' aimed at intimidating the British and they had failed but as of 1914 the fleet was entering its period of peak congruence in terms of strength with regards the Royal Navy as newly built ships completed fitting out and crew training. The level of lay down may have peaked but the threat level had not.

Unfortunate timing as while it may well have been fear of Russia externally and their own socialists internally that were driving force it also could be interpreted that Germany's desire to go to war in August 1914 was because they felt they still had the best naval shot at either intimidating or beating the British, something the British would have felt compelled to respond to given past policy decisions.

Hence the argument that a smaller fleet may well have served Germany better in 1914.

 

[LordKalvert]

France and Russia were two separate countries. Combining their spend to come up with a bigger figure does not make either of them separately a bigger threat than Germany.



That figure, again the combined spends of two separate countries (which therefore suggests neither was spending more individually) covers the period after the Russo-Japanese War where the Russians need to pretty much rebuild their fleet. That costs a lot - in that period the Germans have lost no major ships, therefore their spend is going to additional new warships.



But the French only have 4 dreadnought battleships in their fleet pre-WWI, the Courbet class (Courbet, France, Jean Bart and Paris) the Danton class is pre-dreadnought. The Bretagne class were completed during the war and the Normandie class were never completed.

The Russians may be building 4 to the Germans 3 in regards to battlecruisers but they are the first battlecruisers the Russians have built. The Germans already have 5 at sea by 1914, meaning if those builds are completed (the Russians never were) the Germans would still have 8 to the Russians 4. The same goes for the battleship figures - the Russians are building more in 1914 but the German fleet is already bigger in regards new ships.



As of 1914, the German navy was the second largest in Europe and the most hostile to the RN - ergo, the biggest threat.

Yes, Germany is bigger than either France or Russia but France and Russia were allies before the Entente. The Entente is actually an attempt to make peace with Russia and France because of their strong navies. While Russia's navy declined due to the Japanese War, they were roaring back and becoming a major threat. So strong that Britain would hesitate to alienate them

In the period 1905-14 Germany is the greater naval threat, but for how long? Certainly given the building programs in place and the rapid increase in Russian spending in particular, Russia alone is going to surpass Germany especially if quality is taken into account- many of the older German dreadnoughts were becoming obsolete

 

[RodentRevolution]

Yes, Germany is bigger than either France or Russia but France and Russia were allies before the Entente. The Entente is actually an attempt to make peace with Russia and France because of their strong navies. While Russia's navy declined due to the Japanese War, they were roaring back and becoming a major threat. So strong that Britain would hesitate to alienate them

In the period 1905-14 Germany is the greater naval threat, but for how long? Certainly given the building programs in place and the rapid increase in Russian spending in particular, Russia alone is going to surpass Germany especially if quality is taken into account- many of the older German dreadnoughts were becoming obsolete

At what point will Russia have more than 15 dreadnought and super-dreadnought battleships in commission and more importantly at what point will Russia have that number or great in commission outside of vessels assigned to the Black Sea Fleet?