Al Gore becomes President in 2000
- Thread starter The Man
- Start date
OK, I guess I'll agree that there's a better than 50% chance that Gore loses... but who'll take over? And I think the main issue in 2004 wouldn't be the GOP shouting that they're better on security... maybe they try to make a stand on moral issues like in OTL?
Well, the economy going into a nosedive around the same time probably didn't help much either. The difference is that 9/11 made foreign affairs a much bigger issue in 2004 than it was in 1992.Also, a small, localized military success does not guarantee reelection. Most people seem to have forgotten Bush Sr. and the Gulf War...
How so?
Hope Alikchi doesn't mind:
PRESIDENT GORE: TIMELINE B
POD: During the government shutdown in late 1995, President Clinton makes the decision not to have sex with intern Monica Lewinsky.
1996-2000: Clinton wins a fairly easy victory over Bob Dole in the 1996 elections.
Throughout Clinton's second term, the Republicans keep up their attempts to find something to "get" Clinton on. However, Kenneth Starr's inquiries into Whitewatergate, Filegate, Travelgate, ect. fail to turn up anything that could get Clinton censured, much less impeached.
Newt Gingrich's standing amongst the Republicans continues to slide (though not as rapidly as IOTL). All of this comes to a head when the Democrats manage to win senate races in North Carolina (John Edwards over Lauch Faircloth) and in New York (Chuck Schumer over Al D'amato) in the 1998 midterm elections, bucking the usual trend of the President's party preforming poorly. The Republicans also lose five seats in the House.
Many political observers credit the roaring economy, and Clinton's considerable personal popularity to the Democratic successes. Gingrich resigns from Congress, and is replaced by Congressman Bob Livingstone of Louisiania.
[Without the Lewinsky scandal, Livingstone's history of adultury doesn't surface--at least, not yet].
The remainder of Clinton's term is spent trying target Osama bin Laden for the 1998 bombings in East Africa (who's almost killed at a training camp in Afghanistan by U.S. cruise missles).
In 2000, Clinton tries to broker a peace agreement between Israeli PM Edhud Barak and Yasser Arafat, which falls apart when Arafat refuses it.
Al Gore, however, is in much better shape. His opponent for the White House is Texas Governor George Walker Bush, who's running on a platform of "compassionate conservatism" and "bringing people together."
Gore, however, runs hard on the Clinton record of peace and prosperity. He selects Florida senator Bob Graham as his running mate.
[Without the Lewinsky scandal, Gore doesn't feel the pressing need to distance himself from Clinton as IOTL; this includes not picking Lieberman as his running-mate (who gained national attention IOTL for being the first Democrat to publically cretique Clinton for the affair]
In the end, the 2000 Election comes down to the wire in several states, with Gore pulling off narrow wins in such key states as Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennslyvania, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Florida.
[Ralph Nader was less of a factor, since many people who might have voted for Bush out of disgust for Clinton's personal behavior chose him ITTL].
The Democrats also do very well in the Congressional races, winning six house seats and picking up senate seats in New Jersey (Jon Corzine), Minnesota (Mark Dayton), Washington (Maria Cantwell), Michigan (Debbie Stabenaw), Florida (Bill Nelson), Missouri (Mel Carnahan--who also doesn't die in a plane crash before election like IOTL) Nebraska (Ben Nelson), and Montana (Brian Schweitzer), giving the Democrats control of the Senate for the first time since 1995.
After Florida is called for Gore, who wins (as many pundits are quick to speculate) thanks to Bob Graham's popularity, it doesn't take long for the networks to call the election for the Vice President. In the end, George W. Bush concedes defeat, the third Republican presidential candidate in a row to lose a general election. Gore becomes only the third Vice President since Martin van Buren to follow his predecessor directly to the office. Many observers, in fact, compare this election to 1988, where President Reagan's popularity and the well-off economy allowed for Veep George H.W. Bush to easily take the White House. By the end of the night, Gore has also carried the popular vote 52% to 48%.
And so, Al Gore begins laying the groundwork for his first term in office.
~~~~~
Comments?
PRESIDENT GORE: TIMELINE B
POD: During the government shutdown in late 1995, President Clinton makes the decision not to have sex with intern Monica Lewinsky.
1996-2000: Clinton wins a fairly easy victory over Bob Dole in the 1996 elections.
Throughout Clinton's second term, the Republicans keep up their attempts to find something to "get" Clinton on. However, Kenneth Starr's inquiries into Whitewatergate, Filegate, Travelgate, ect. fail to turn up anything that could get Clinton censured, much less impeached.
Newt Gingrich's standing amongst the Republicans continues to slide (though not as rapidly as IOTL). All of this comes to a head when the Democrats manage to win senate races in North Carolina (John Edwards over Lauch Faircloth) and in New York (Chuck Schumer over Al D'amato) in the 1998 midterm elections, bucking the usual trend of the President's party preforming poorly. The Republicans also lose five seats in the House.
Many political observers credit the roaring economy, and Clinton's considerable personal popularity to the Democratic successes. Gingrich resigns from Congress, and is replaced by Congressman Bob Livingstone of Louisiania.
[Without the Lewinsky scandal, Livingstone's history of adultury doesn't surface--at least, not yet].
The remainder of Clinton's term is spent trying target Osama bin Laden for the 1998 bombings in East Africa (who's almost killed at a training camp in Afghanistan by U.S. cruise missles).
In 2000, Clinton tries to broker a peace agreement between Israeli PM Edhud Barak and Yasser Arafat, which falls apart when Arafat refuses it.
Al Gore, however, is in much better shape. His opponent for the White House is Texas Governor George Walker Bush, who's running on a platform of "compassionate conservatism" and "bringing people together."
Gore, however, runs hard on the Clinton record of peace and prosperity. He selects Florida senator Bob Graham as his running mate.
[Without the Lewinsky scandal, Gore doesn't feel the pressing need to distance himself from Clinton as IOTL; this includes not picking Lieberman as his running-mate (who gained national attention IOTL for being the first Democrat to publically cretique Clinton for the affair]
In the end, the 2000 Election comes down to the wire in several states, with Gore pulling off narrow wins in such key states as Michigan, Iowa, New Mexico, Wisconsin, Pennslyvania, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Florida.
[Ralph Nader was less of a factor, since many people who might have voted for Bush out of disgust for Clinton's personal behavior chose him ITTL].
The Democrats also do very well in the Congressional races, winning six house seats and picking up senate seats in New Jersey (Jon Corzine), Minnesota (Mark Dayton), Washington (Maria Cantwell), Michigan (Debbie Stabenaw), Florida (Bill Nelson), Missouri (Mel Carnahan--who also doesn't die in a plane crash before election like IOTL) Nebraska (Ben Nelson), and Montana (Brian Schweitzer), giving the Democrats control of the Senate for the first time since 1995.
After Florida is called for Gore, who wins (as many pundits are quick to speculate) thanks to Bob Graham's popularity, it doesn't take long for the networks to call the election for the Vice President. In the end, George W. Bush concedes defeat, the third Republican presidential candidate in a row to lose a general election. Gore becomes only the third Vice President since Martin van Buren to follow his predecessor directly to the office. Many observers, in fact, compare this election to 1988, where President Reagan's popularity and the well-off economy allowed for Veep George H.W. Bush to easily take the White House. By the end of the night, Gore has also carried the popular vote 52% to 48%.
And so, Al Gore begins laying the groundwork for his first term in office.
~~~~~
Comments?
Last edited:
That's inevitable, seeing as the thread's about the opposing party winning a recent and somewhat disputed election. Those who lost in OTL will naturally try to make the resultant TL seem better than OTL, while those who got their way in OTL will argue that it will be worse than OTL. Keeping a thread like this from going partisan is rather impossible.
BTW, nice start on the TL, DBE. And good to see Alikchi might be continuing his.
2001: President Gore comes into office with a substantial political advantage compared to what Clinton had in his second term, with the Senate Democratic and the House only marginally Republican.
However, the first part of Gore's presidency is marked by several major legislative battles. First it's over plans to fully implement reforms to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration through the introduction of new ergonomics standards. Although the Senate easily confirms the new rules, the House proves to be more difficult terrain. Led by Texas Congressman Tom DeLay, several right wing Republicans attempt to tag amendments to the measure more or less diluting them. In the end, a coalition of moderate Republicans, led by Connecticut's Chris Shays, joins the Democrats in passing the Ergonomics reform, which is signed into law by Gore soon afterwards, but the extensive fight soon turns many people off from Capitol Hill, convinced that the 2000s will simply mean more of the same.
DeLay also attempts to jump-start House investigations into Democratic "voting shenanigans" in Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico during the 2000 Elections, but once again moderate Republicans and Democrats join to kill off the move.
By this time, Speaker Livingston has ceded a lot of ground to DeLay in terms of leadership among the House Republicans.
After the Ergonomics fight, the next big battle comes over what's considered by many to be one of the crown jewels in Gore's campaign pledges--the end America's dependence on foreign sources of oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia. Introduced in the Senate by Senator Lieberman and Senator Feinstein, the Energy Independence Act of 2001 draws immediate fire from the energy and auto industries, thanks to the generous subsidies offered for the development of renewable sources, and the substantial raising of fuel standards for both cars and SUVs.
Led by Tom DeLay in the House and Oklahoma's James Inhofe in the Senate, the Republican right does everything to delay passage of the bill; Senator Inhofe attempts a filibuster in the Senate, which succeeds, although in vain, since the Senate eventually narrowly pass the legislation.
But with Tom DeLay leading efforts in the House, the Energy Independence Act is narrowly voted down. Gore vows to push for the legislation, but many pundits point to his ineffective use of the Bully Pulpit during the Congressional fight. However, this draws criticism from liberals, who claim that the media largely ignored the substance of the issue being debated and instead focusing on the gladiatorial aspects of the spectacle.
Coupled with the stock market going soft and Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke's inability to bring Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon together to negotiate an end to the Second Palestinian Intifada, Gore rapidly begins to look like a lame duck.
Then, in August 2001, Gore's counter-terrorism advisor Richard Clarke gives him a briefing entitled "Bin Laden Determined to Strike US," detailing the apparent efforts of al Qaida leader Osama bin Laden to launch a major attack on the country, possibly involving the use of airplanes, although the threat from that arena seems very vague.
However, it's enough to draw a strong reaction from Gore. Soon, security is beefed up at major airports in New York, Chicago, and Los Angles.
Tragically, one airport overlooked in the security crackdown is Boston's Logan International Airport. And it's through Logan that the worst terrorist attack in US history will occur.
On September 11, 2001, 19 al Qaida operatives led by Mohamed Atta hijack four airplanes, crashing two into the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York City, another into the Pentagon, and another one intended to hit the Capitol Building, which is derailed when the passengers aboard force a crash landing in rural Pennsylvania.
Gore, who's in the White House when New York is attack, is initially evacuated from Washington, before returning to the capital later that evening. He addresses the nation as soon as possible, calling for calm and restrain from the populace, and promising to bring those responsible for the attacks to justice.
Six days later, he delivers a rousing speech to rescue workers at New York's Ground Zero, where he praises their efforts to assist any survivors and again reaffirms his commitment to bring the perpetrators to justice. Many pundits still express shock at Gore's apparent newfound charisma, after almost a decade of labeling him "boring" and "stiff." A few days later, Gore speaks to a joint-session of Congress, telling the assembled Senators and Congressmen that, "...the old, tired, and petty fights cannot continue. We are in a war on extremism and terror, and we have to work together." Gore gains further praise for this speech from political pundits and observers, although many note Tom DeLay clapping rather unenthusiastically during the standing ovations.
The next month is spent by Gore and Secretary Holbrooke trying to bring about an international coalition to bring the fight to Afghanistan, where it's believed that the Taliban government is sheltering bin Laden and many al Qaida training camps. Gore gains assurances from Pakistan's President Pervez Musharref the United States will be able to use Pakistani airspace to for any air attack against the country.
Gaining firm promises of support from major NATO allies, Gore presses the Taliban regime to hand bin Laden and his lieutenants over to the United States, and to dismantle the terrorist training camps. Mullah Omar refuses.
During this time, the United States is held in a panic thanks to the anthrax-laced letters sent by an anonymous person or persons against various media institutions and politicians.
Operation Enduring Liberty begins on October 29, 2001 with massive US airstrikes against the Taliban, and also in support of the Northern Alliance, a group of assorted warlords opposed to Taliban rule.
Bin Laden, along with second-in-command Ayman al Zawahiri and third-in-command Muhammed Atef, flee to a series of fortified bunkers in Tora Bora for a probable last stand against the Americans.
The first ground troops, part of a 40,000 man force, along with task forces from Britain, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Canada, and Australia, arrive in Afghanistan to take the fight directly to the enemy around two weeks later. This is all that's needed to break the back of the Taliban, which loses control of the cities of Mazer-i-Sharif, Kunduz, Herat, Kabul, and Khandahar during this time.
As part of his prewar agreement with the USA, Musharref orders the Pakistani Army to turn back all Taliban and al Qaida fighters before they can cross, and to turn them over to Coalition forces.
The Pakistanis manage to capture both 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Muhammed and al Qaida intelligence official Abu Zubaydah, who are turned over to the Americans.
Operation Enduring Liberty concludes with the Battle of Tora Bora in early December, in which US and allied forces gradually wear down and destroy the al Qaida fighters holed up in their mountain fortresses.
During the brutal fighting, both Atef and Zawahiri are killed. Bin Laden attempts to escape along with a select core of fighters, before being captured by US Special Forces (although he's injured in a grenade explosion prior to this). He's taken for medical treatment so that he can stand trial for over 3,000 counts of murder.
While all this is going on, a provisional Afghan government under Hamid Karzai forms in Bonn, Germany.
Also in December 2001, Enron, an energy company long suspected by the SEC and the Justice Department of pursuing dodgy accounting and tax policies, utterly collapses. The Gore Justice Department acts swiftly, announcing that investigations will be launched into the activities of CEO Kenneth Lay.
However, the public's focus is on 2002, and the upcoming trial of Osama bin Laden.
~~~~~
Comments?
However, the first part of Gore's presidency is marked by several major legislative battles. First it's over plans to fully implement reforms to the Occupational Safety and Health Administration through the introduction of new ergonomics standards. Although the Senate easily confirms the new rules, the House proves to be more difficult terrain. Led by Texas Congressman Tom DeLay, several right wing Republicans attempt to tag amendments to the measure more or less diluting them. In the end, a coalition of moderate Republicans, led by Connecticut's Chris Shays, joins the Democrats in passing the Ergonomics reform, which is signed into law by Gore soon afterwards, but the extensive fight soon turns many people off from Capitol Hill, convinced that the 2000s will simply mean more of the same.
DeLay also attempts to jump-start House investigations into Democratic "voting shenanigans" in Florida, Wisconsin, and New Mexico during the 2000 Elections, but once again moderate Republicans and Democrats join to kill off the move.
By this time, Speaker Livingston has ceded a lot of ground to DeLay in terms of leadership among the House Republicans.
After the Ergonomics fight, the next big battle comes over what's considered by many to be one of the crown jewels in Gore's campaign pledges--the end America's dependence on foreign sources of oil, particularly from Saudi Arabia. Introduced in the Senate by Senator Lieberman and Senator Feinstein, the Energy Independence Act of 2001 draws immediate fire from the energy and auto industries, thanks to the generous subsidies offered for the development of renewable sources, and the substantial raising of fuel standards for both cars and SUVs.
Led by Tom DeLay in the House and Oklahoma's James Inhofe in the Senate, the Republican right does everything to delay passage of the bill; Senator Inhofe attempts a filibuster in the Senate, which succeeds, although in vain, since the Senate eventually narrowly pass the legislation.
But with Tom DeLay leading efforts in the House, the Energy Independence Act is narrowly voted down. Gore vows to push for the legislation, but many pundits point to his ineffective use of the Bully Pulpit during the Congressional fight. However, this draws criticism from liberals, who claim that the media largely ignored the substance of the issue being debated and instead focusing on the gladiatorial aspects of the spectacle.
Coupled with the stock market going soft and Secretary of State Richard Holbrooke's inability to bring Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon together to negotiate an end to the Second Palestinian Intifada, Gore rapidly begins to look like a lame duck.
Then, in August 2001, Gore's counter-terrorism advisor Richard Clarke gives him a briefing entitled "Bin Laden Determined to Strike US," detailing the apparent efforts of al Qaida leader Osama bin Laden to launch a major attack on the country, possibly involving the use of airplanes, although the threat from that arena seems very vague.
However, it's enough to draw a strong reaction from Gore. Soon, security is beefed up at major airports in New York, Chicago, and Los Angles.
Tragically, one airport overlooked in the security crackdown is Boston's Logan International Airport. And it's through Logan that the worst terrorist attack in US history will occur.
On September 11, 2001, 19 al Qaida operatives led by Mohamed Atta hijack four airplanes, crashing two into the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center in New York City, another into the Pentagon, and another one intended to hit the Capitol Building, which is derailed when the passengers aboard force a crash landing in rural Pennsylvania.
Gore, who's in the White House when New York is attack, is initially evacuated from Washington, before returning to the capital later that evening. He addresses the nation as soon as possible, calling for calm and restrain from the populace, and promising to bring those responsible for the attacks to justice.
Six days later, he delivers a rousing speech to rescue workers at New York's Ground Zero, where he praises their efforts to assist any survivors and again reaffirms his commitment to bring the perpetrators to justice. Many pundits still express shock at Gore's apparent newfound charisma, after almost a decade of labeling him "boring" and "stiff." A few days later, Gore speaks to a joint-session of Congress, telling the assembled Senators and Congressmen that, "...the old, tired, and petty fights cannot continue. We are in a war on extremism and terror, and we have to work together." Gore gains further praise for this speech from political pundits and observers, although many note Tom DeLay clapping rather unenthusiastically during the standing ovations.
The next month is spent by Gore and Secretary Holbrooke trying to bring about an international coalition to bring the fight to Afghanistan, where it's believed that the Taliban government is sheltering bin Laden and many al Qaida training camps. Gore gains assurances from Pakistan's President Pervez Musharref the United States will be able to use Pakistani airspace to for any air attack against the country.
Gaining firm promises of support from major NATO allies, Gore presses the Taliban regime to hand bin Laden and his lieutenants over to the United States, and to dismantle the terrorist training camps. Mullah Omar refuses.
During this time, the United States is held in a panic thanks to the anthrax-laced letters sent by an anonymous person or persons against various media institutions and politicians.
Operation Enduring Liberty begins on October 29, 2001 with massive US airstrikes against the Taliban, and also in support of the Northern Alliance, a group of assorted warlords opposed to Taliban rule.
Bin Laden, along with second-in-command Ayman al Zawahiri and third-in-command Muhammed Atef, flee to a series of fortified bunkers in Tora Bora for a probable last stand against the Americans.
The first ground troops, part of a 40,000 man force, along with task forces from Britain, Germany, Spain, the Netherlands, France, Italy, Canada, and Australia, arrive in Afghanistan to take the fight directly to the enemy around two weeks later. This is all that's needed to break the back of the Taliban, which loses control of the cities of Mazer-i-Sharif, Kunduz, Herat, Kabul, and Khandahar during this time.
As part of his prewar agreement with the USA, Musharref orders the Pakistani Army to turn back all Taliban and al Qaida fighters before they can cross, and to turn them over to Coalition forces.
The Pakistanis manage to capture both 9/11 mastermind Khalid Sheikh Muhammed and al Qaida intelligence official Abu Zubaydah, who are turned over to the Americans.
Operation Enduring Liberty concludes with the Battle of Tora Bora in early December, in which US and allied forces gradually wear down and destroy the al Qaida fighters holed up in their mountain fortresses.
During the brutal fighting, both Atef and Zawahiri are killed. Bin Laden attempts to escape along with a select core of fighters, before being captured by US Special Forces (although he's injured in a grenade explosion prior to this). He's taken for medical treatment so that he can stand trial for over 3,000 counts of murder.
While all this is going on, a provisional Afghan government under Hamid Karzai forms in Bonn, Germany.
Also in December 2001, Enron, an energy company long suspected by the SEC and the Justice Department of pursuing dodgy accounting and tax policies, utterly collapses. The Gore Justice Department acts swiftly, announcing that investigations will be launched into the activities of CEO Kenneth Lay.
However, the public's focus is on 2002, and the upcoming trial of Osama bin Laden.
~~~~~
Comments?
Last edited:
Hendryk
Banned
Interesting and plausible.
I wonder: would Gore, unlike Bush, have accepted NATO's offer to activate Article 5 in the wake of 9/11?
In the context of a Gore presidency, the Enron scandal would certainly give a significant boost to his reform of the energy sector.
A few points...
1) Why would Gore reverse eight years of Clinton policy to force a confrontation, even economic, with China?
2) Why would Kyoto, rejected 95-0 in the Senate and opposed by the AFL-CIO, have the slightest chance of being put into effect?
3) Enron's collapse took place when it did because Bush's Secretary of the Treasury refused to repeat the consideration that Enron received from 1993-2001 and this, plus the generous donations to Gore and the DNC by Ken Lay/Enron plus Enron's status as the sole American energy company supporting Kyoto might be annoyances.
4) The odds of Gore suddenly putting in effect anti-terrorist policies which went nowhere under Clinton in every major airport except Boston's are pretty much nil. On the other hand, consider the joy of conspiracy nuts when that detail comes up.
1) Why would Gore reverse eight years of Clinton policy to force a confrontation, even economic, with China?
2) Why would Kyoto, rejected 95-0 in the Senate and opposed by the AFL-CIO, have the slightest chance of being put into effect?
3) Enron's collapse took place when it did because Bush's Secretary of the Treasury refused to repeat the consideration that Enron received from 1993-2001 and this, plus the generous donations to Gore and the DNC by Ken Lay/Enron plus Enron's status as the sole American energy company supporting Kyoto might be annoyances.
4) The odds of Gore suddenly putting in effect anti-terrorist policies which went nowhere under Clinton in every major airport except Boston's are pretty much nil. On the other hand, consider the joy of conspiracy nuts when that detail comes up.
In David's Timeline I can see Gore also winning his own state of Tennesse and Arkansas, along with those states which he had flipped Missouri, New Hampshire and Florida, which would given him a 324-214 victory in the electoral college.
He might also had taken Georgia as well.
He might also had taken Georgia as well.
Hmm, so Ken Lay and co. manage to con a few more billion before they get caught (which will happen eventually) then?
Yeah, I'd agree here. And another thing is that in OTL, only the two WTC planes came out of Logan, Flight 77 came out of Newark and Flight 93 came out of Dulles. Plus the attacks themselves might be changed- maybe the hijackers on flights 11 and 175 get caught on the ground due to increased security at Logan, or 77 doesn't hit the Pentagon but instead makes it to the White House or Capitol, or 93 manages to stay up in the air after the hijackers are subdued?
Gore as President.
Unfortunately, I think we're actually reading Gore through modern paradigms. If you recall the election of 2000, Gore was accusing Bush of being too isolationist. Gore is going to be more, not less willing to intervene in other countries. Gore is, in my view, just as likely to go for Iraq as Bush. Remember the Iraqi Liberation Act was past under the Clinton admin. (1998), and Gore's foreign policy advisors during the campaign favored a strategy called "forward engagement" which included some thoughts not too dissimilar from the Bush doctrine (for all that they all criticize this now, but such is the way of politics). As was the case in Kosovo, he would have had support from most of the GOP and the Democrats. The interesting issue would be on the far left, where I submit there would still be an anti-war movement.
Think about it: there's no reason, apart from anti-Bush prejudice, to assume that Gore handles Iraq any differently (though he might, in fairness, limit his campaign to an air campaign as was the case in 96 and 98). But to claim that he'd be hands-off here is ridiculous.
I also don't think world opinion would be greatly changed, one way or the other. Chirac, the man partially responsible for Saddam's purchase of Osirak in the first place), was not going to back the US in any substantial Iraq play: not in the French national interest really, when one gets down to it. Schroeder...now that's an interesting question, but he and his foreign secretary seem on the pacifist end of things. The biggest difference in Europe is Britain. Without Bush the boogy-man, Blair's position vis-a-vis supporting Gore and the war in Iraq is much easier.
Now, I think a case could be made that Gore might have done better in Iraq, if nothing else because he'd have had the support of the Democrats, and most of the Republicans (the GOP is generally a "rally round the flag" party in war time: see Vietnam, WWII, Korea, Kosovo), though a bigger paleocon anti-war movement is a possibility also. In general though, I think Gore does better at maintaining public support for the war in Iraq (though, as a conservative it gauls me a bit to say it). His execution might not be considerably different though. It wasn't only Rumsfeld who was obsessed with the "do more with less" doctrine.
I do think Gore would have pushed independence from foreign oil as a national security issue. I also think immigration would have been an even bigger weakness for him than it was for Bush.
As for GOP candidates in 2004, here's my short list:
1. Tom Ridge. Considered as a VP even in 2000, he'd have 2 successful terms as governor of a large swing state, and some positive 9-11 aassociations, as well as the whole coal-mine thing (definitely big in PA).
2. McCain: for one more go-round.
3. Bill Owens: popular swing-state governor.
4. An obligatory southern senator with foreign policy cridentials (not sure just who).
Who wins? Depends on a lot of unguessable factors. When it comes to presidential elections I follow the "any given Sunday" rule: unless Gore either did something incredibly bad or incredibly good, both of which I doubt.
Unfortunately, I think we're actually reading Gore through modern paradigms. If you recall the election of 2000, Gore was accusing Bush of being too isolationist. Gore is going to be more, not less willing to intervene in other countries. Gore is, in my view, just as likely to go for Iraq as Bush. Remember the Iraqi Liberation Act was past under the Clinton admin. (1998), and Gore's foreign policy advisors during the campaign favored a strategy called "forward engagement" which included some thoughts not too dissimilar from the Bush doctrine (for all that they all criticize this now, but such is the way of politics). As was the case in Kosovo, he would have had support from most of the GOP and the Democrats. The interesting issue would be on the far left, where I submit there would still be an anti-war movement.
Think about it: there's no reason, apart from anti-Bush prejudice, to assume that Gore handles Iraq any differently (though he might, in fairness, limit his campaign to an air campaign as was the case in 96 and 98). But to claim that he'd be hands-off here is ridiculous.
I also don't think world opinion would be greatly changed, one way or the other. Chirac, the man partially responsible for Saddam's purchase of Osirak in the first place), was not going to back the US in any substantial Iraq play: not in the French national interest really, when one gets down to it. Schroeder...now that's an interesting question, but he and his foreign secretary seem on the pacifist end of things. The biggest difference in Europe is Britain. Without Bush the boogy-man, Blair's position vis-a-vis supporting Gore and the war in Iraq is much easier.
Now, I think a case could be made that Gore might have done better in Iraq, if nothing else because he'd have had the support of the Democrats, and most of the Republicans (the GOP is generally a "rally round the flag" party in war time: see Vietnam, WWII, Korea, Kosovo), though a bigger paleocon anti-war movement is a possibility also. In general though, I think Gore does better at maintaining public support for the war in Iraq (though, as a conservative it gauls me a bit to say it). His execution might not be considerably different though. It wasn't only Rumsfeld who was obsessed with the "do more with less" doctrine.
I do think Gore would have pushed independence from foreign oil as a national security issue. I also think immigration would have been an even bigger weakness for him than it was for Bush.
As for GOP candidates in 2004, here's my short list:
1. Tom Ridge. Considered as a VP even in 2000, he'd have 2 successful terms as governor of a large swing state, and some positive 9-11 aassociations, as well as the whole coal-mine thing (definitely big in PA).
2. McCain: for one more go-round.
3. Bill Owens: popular swing-state governor.
4. An obligatory southern senator with foreign policy cridentials (not sure just who).
Who wins? Depends on a lot of unguessable factors. When it comes to presidential elections I follow the "any given Sunday" rule: unless Gore either did something incredibly bad or incredibly good, both of which I doubt.
NapoleonXIV
Banned
Clinton didn't, why would Gore? Also, are you positing that Gore would instruct his Intel to find WMD and then simply lie about them to go to war? esp when Saddam was bending over backwards, (he actually invited the CIA in to show them) to say he didn't have any?
Is it nothing but "anti-Bush prejudice" to note that the Dems had nothing like the neo-con prounouciamentos of the late 90's which posited that the US needed their own nation in the ME, and that Iraq was pretty ripe for the taking.
Gore cabinet...
I was thinking about doing this TL a while back, so here's what I found on a probable Gore cabinet.
Keep in mind one name who isn't on the list but will be important nonetheless: Kenn Polick. Polick was Clinton's top Iraq guy on the national security council for quite a while. I see know reason to think Gore would drop him, as he's pretty respected on both sides of the isle. Polick also wrote 'The Threatening Storm', a very detailed case for the war in Iraq. Take a good look at Fuerth (one of the few definite shoe-ins here). I think forward engagement means, at the very least, that the lead-up to Iraq goes very similar, even if it ends in an air campaign only. Yes it says the reason for Forward Engagement is to prevent the need for military force. But if doubt remains as to whether Saddam has come clean (and with Tenit still at CIA it's going to be a similar analysis there), you'll probably see some sort of military response.
Without further adieu, the probable Gore cabinet and my comments on a few of them.
Possible Gore cabinet (hat tip: evote.com).
With the Election a few scant hours away, voters may be wondering what a possible Al Gore administration will look like.
Well, mostly like Bill Clinton's third term, frankly. However, Al Gore will have plenty of changes in key positions to put his own stamp on a Gore Administration.
Clinton/Gore Transitions to Gore/Clinton
Al Gore will draw on two primary groups for his top picks: mid-level Clinton Administration members and Gore staffers and loyalists.
With that said, let's take a look at the usual suspects:
The White House Staff
The most likely pick to head the White House staff is a familiar Gore Campaign face: Bill Daley.
Daley is credited with rescuing a floundering Gore Campaign earlier this year, and his reward is likely to be the top job in the White House (other than
Gore's new job, of course). Another potential is Donna Shalala, the current Secretary of HHS, and a good Gore friend. Unlike many other Clinton cabinet
members, she's ducked any controversy or scandal, and has arguably done a good job at her present position. (I'd bet on Daly: campaign chief to chief of staff is a fairly typical career arc).
Also likely to come over from the campaign is Alan Binder, Gore's main economic advisor during the campaign. Binder will probably get to be chairman of
the National Economic Council.
And speaking of top advisors, Leon Fuerth is guaranteed of becoming Gore's National Security Advisor. Fuerth is a long-time Gore friend, and the top national
security advisor to the Gore Campaign. Fuerth has long advocated "forward engagement", which consists of intervening in world events early rather than
later, in order to prevent the need for military force.
Back to the Future at the State Department
Gore has expressed some positive words about Richard Holbrooke, ambassador to the United Nations and an Assistant Secretary of State earlier in the Clinton
Administration.
What complicates his selection, though, is that Holbrooke has been doing everything just shy of buying billboards in Washington to campaign for the job.
Still, Gore seems taken with Holbrooke, and might appreciate his strong desire for the top job at State.
If Holbrooke's campaigning ends up being self-defeating, two other possibles are Democratic Party "statesmen": George Mitchell (author of the constantly-about-to-crumble
Irish peace accords and a former majority leader in the Senate) and Lee Hamilton (once thought to be a possible Mike Dukakis running mate -- and considered
to be expert in foreign policy matters). (TDems have been turning to Hamilton a lot of late, and of the three he's the easiest to get through a probably GOP senate).
Haven't We Seen This Name Before?
The top job at Defense is likely to be offered to Sam Nunn, the retired Georgia Senator. What makes this interesting is that Sam Nunn is also a possible
Secretary of Defense in a Bush Administration (albeit only as a dark horse).
If Nunn doesn't want the job under Gore, it'll likely go to Richard Danzig, Clinton's current Secretary of the Navy. Danzig's problem though, is similar
to Holbrooke's -- he's been campaigning for the job rather stridently, and with somewhat less success than Holbrooke.
In addition, a dark horse possibility for the top job at Defense is long-time Gore friend Norman Dicks, Democratic congressman from Washington State. (Smart money's on Nunn, for similar reasons to Hamilton. He was going to be a colorful character in my TL, the man out of step with the admin. like Powell in the Bush admin. though on the more conservative side).
Keeping the Till
Just as in Bush's case, the Treasury Department may go to one of Gore's top contributors. (There's something of an ironic symmetry to this: in the Clinton
Administration, the job, after briefly landing in Lloyd Benten's lap, went to Richard Rubin, a top contributor to the Clinton Campaign. Perhaps the thinking
is that anyone who can deliver that much money to a political campaign must know something about keeping Uncle Sam's books too. Or more likely, anyone
who can deliver that much in political contributions needs to recoup his investment.)
In this case, that man is Steve Rattner, formerly the deputy CEO at investment bank Lazard Freres, and now the head guy at Quadrangle Group, a private bank
and investment group.
But just as with Clinton, there's someone who might get the job first: Lawrence Sommers, the current Secretary of the Treasury is also a good Gore friend
and supporter, and Gore may need to use the top job at Treasury as a political payment before he can give the job to Rattner.
The dark horse in this group is James Johnson, former head of Fannie Mae, and a top Mondale operative (which may disqualify him from just about any political
job, given how badly Walter Mondale ran his 1984 campaign). (The same Sommers who got drummed out of Harvard unless I miss my guess. This one's a toss-up, and probably not as relevant unless you're wonkishly inclined).
Keeping the Peace
The Department of Justice is also likely to get an overhaul during the Gore Administration, just as it will in a possible Bush Administration. But for different
reasons: the Gore Campaign has privately fumed that mid-level people at the DOJ have been less-than-supportive of Gore's run, and except for some last-minute
heroics by Janet Reno (for which, sadly, she will not be rewarded by the Gore Administration), the DOJ might have been their biggest problem in getting
Gore elected.
So, the only holdover with a shot at the top job is Gore ally Eric Holder, who would become the first black Attorney General. Holder is a darling of liberals,
and would help Gore demonstrate his commitment to enforcing civil rights laws, among others.
Gore has two other key contenders for this job, though. Long-time Gore friend and advisor Jack Quinn wants this job too. Quinn served as deputy White House
counsel under Clinton and was very skilled at navigating the treacherous political waters for both Clinton and Gore -- in addition, Quinn did a great job
as an "unofficial" spokesperson for the legal aspects of the Lewinsky scandals for the Clinton Administration.
Gore also has another long-time friend and advisor interested in the job: Frank Hunger, who was married to Nancy Gore, his late sister. Hunger is a top
advisor to the Gore Campaign, and worked at the DOJ earlier.
The two candidates from this group who don't get the job will likely find employment elsewhere in the Gore Administration. (Holder: Gore wants to make a statement and, if I'm write about defense and state, needs a prominent liberal in a high cabinet job).
One other possibility is Dennis Archer, the current mayor of Detroit. Seen generally as an unlikely pick, Gore may go to Archer if he finds other posts
for Quinn and Hunger, and Eric Holder turns out unsuitable for the job.
Educating Al
The Department of Education tends to be a dumping ground in both Republican and Democratic administrations, and while Gore will put more emphasis on education
than usual, don't expect anything different this time here.
One of the leading contenders is Tom Carper, who is challenging Bill Roth in Delaware for his senate seat.
If Carper is Senator Carper come January, then the two other possibles are Jim Hunt, governor of North Carolina (and a Democrat), who is in his fourth term
there and looking to establish a national platform for himself. Being Secretary of Education could accomplish that.
And Bruce Reed, chief Domestic Policy Advisor in the Clinton White House is a candidate for this position as well, but more of a dark horse. (Carper won his election, which won't be changed here. So I think it goes to Hunter).
HHS: Patronage Plum
Unlike in Republican Administrations (which tend to spend their terms trying to take apart the Department of Health and Human Services), Democrats tend
to make HHS their key political patronage plum -- a great way to reward loyal workers with scads of high-pay/low-work jobs and special programs.
HHS under Gore should follow this mold, and the top plum here will likely go to Tom Downey, long-time Gore advisor and a close friend of Al Gore. (Downey
lost a re-election bid for his House seat some years ago, and has been a Gore hanger-on since then).
If Downey isn't the pick, Gore may go with Ann Richards -- if for no other reason than picking Richards would be the ultimate slap at George W. Bush (since
Richards was the Texas Governor that George W. Bush beat, and Richards also gave the famous "Poor George" speech at the 1988 Democratic Convention that
excoriated George H. Bush).
Or if Gore is feeling less vindictive, he'll go with David Kessler, the former Clinton FDA chairman who is quite well-respected and a bit of a policy wonk.
Two other less political candidates include Nancy-Ann Min DeParle, the current head of the Health Care Financing Administration (which runs Medicare) and
David Satcher, Clinton's Surgeon General. (Don't know on this one).
Laboring for a Job
The Department of Labor also tends to be a key patronage plum, and this time around, there's little doubt it will go to the occasionally controversial Donna
Brazile.
Brazile has been a top Gore advisor and campaign worker, dating back to the pre-purge days of 1999, and has been very instrumental in getting black support
for Gore.
Brazile does have a penchant for outrageous and occasionally controversial statements -- she's the black female equivalent of James Watt. Still, Gore will
reward her hard work with the top job at Labor.
Down on the Farm
The Agriculture Department will likely continue on its present course of pouring federal money into ailing farms while trying very hard to not look like
it's actually doling out handouts.
Gore has a couple of choices here, which include Jill Long Thompson, a current Ag official in the Clinton Administration.
But the two more likely choices are more political. Charles Stenholm, a Texas congressman is likely to get redistricted out of office in 2002, and will
be shopping around for a job before then. Being Secretary of Agriculture might just be his cup of tea.
And Gore may need to give the moderates in the Democratic Leadership Council a nod, and one way of doing that is to give Gary Condit the job. While not
necessarily a top DLC guy himself, Condit is a top Blue Dog Democrat (a group of southern conservative Democrats in Congress), and might be able to help
Gore in 2004 to crack a solid GOP south. (Condit scandal possibilities are interesting here, and of course, every admin. has a good scandal or two, so I'd give it to him with Stenholm getting it when Condit is forced to resign).
The Political Environment at the EPA
The top job at EPA will be a star job in the Gore Administration -- if for no other reason that Gore has a monumentally large need to prove to Nader voters
that he can be trusted with environmental issues.
The most likely candidate for this position is Kathleen McGinty. McGinty is the top environmental advisor to the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and
is also chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality. She is very well respected among more liberal environmentalists and would likely
satisfy most Nader voters.
But Gore may go for star power for such a position, and the leading candidate for this would then become Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the eldest child of
Democratic icon Robert Kennedy. Townsend is currently the Lieutenant Governor of Maryland, and has been desperately seeking a national stage for her career.
It would be hard to think of a better one.
A dark horse for this position, ironically enough, turns out to be Townsend's boss: Maryland Governor Parris Glendening. He's an advocate of Federal intervention
in urban planning to prevent urban sprawl, and a Gore respects his views and ideas on planning and environmental issues. (Gore's going to pick this one carefully, though I couldn't say who. Townsend would have interesting knock-on political effects in Maryland).
Energy: No Star Power Here
Despite concerns over energy policy and oil shortages, Gore would put most of the emphasis on his Administration's energy policy directly in the White House
staff, and possibly at the EPA. So the Department of Energy in the Gore Administration is not really the place to be for up-and-coming politicians.
That said, the frontrunner is retiring Nevada Senator Richard Bryan, who is a big consumer rights advocate and has blocked plans to place nuclear waste
in his state.
Other possibilities include Tom Grumbly, a strong Gore loyalist who was on Gore's senate staff and who worked in the Clinton Administration earlier, heading
up a nuclear waste cleanup program, and T.J. Glauthier, a current Deputy Secretary in the Clinton Energy Department. (No idea here).
The Equal Employment Act for Democrats
Gore won't be shaking up many of the Federal departments in his administration. Most of the middle-level hierarchy will remain intact, and with the exception
of a few Gore loyalists and newcomers, the real changes will occur in the White House staff itself.
Other possible candidates for the various remaining cabinet officials include Terry McAuliffe, a key DNC fundraiser, and Alexis Herman, the first black
woman to head the Department of Labor (under Clinton) and Norman Mineta, the first Asian-American to hold a top cabinet post (also under Clinton). Peter
Knight, another DNC operative and former Gore Chief of Staff will likely also find employment in a Gore Administration. Still, Democrats can expect four more years of continued employment and job opportunities in a Gore Administration.
I was thinking about doing this TL a while back, so here's what I found on a probable Gore cabinet.
Keep in mind one name who isn't on the list but will be important nonetheless: Kenn Polick. Polick was Clinton's top Iraq guy on the national security council for quite a while. I see know reason to think Gore would drop him, as he's pretty respected on both sides of the isle. Polick also wrote 'The Threatening Storm', a very detailed case for the war in Iraq. Take a good look at Fuerth (one of the few definite shoe-ins here). I think forward engagement means, at the very least, that the lead-up to Iraq goes very similar, even if it ends in an air campaign only. Yes it says the reason for Forward Engagement is to prevent the need for military force. But if doubt remains as to whether Saddam has come clean (and with Tenit still at CIA it's going to be a similar analysis there), you'll probably see some sort of military response.
Without further adieu, the probable Gore cabinet and my comments on a few of them.
Possible Gore cabinet (hat tip: evote.com).
With the Election a few scant hours away, voters may be wondering what a possible Al Gore administration will look like.
Well, mostly like Bill Clinton's third term, frankly. However, Al Gore will have plenty of changes in key positions to put his own stamp on a Gore Administration.
Clinton/Gore Transitions to Gore/Clinton
Al Gore will draw on two primary groups for his top picks: mid-level Clinton Administration members and Gore staffers and loyalists.
With that said, let's take a look at the usual suspects:
The White House Staff
The most likely pick to head the White House staff is a familiar Gore Campaign face: Bill Daley.
Daley is credited with rescuing a floundering Gore Campaign earlier this year, and his reward is likely to be the top job in the White House (other than
Gore's new job, of course). Another potential is Donna Shalala, the current Secretary of HHS, and a good Gore friend. Unlike many other Clinton cabinet
members, she's ducked any controversy or scandal, and has arguably done a good job at her present position. (I'd bet on Daly: campaign chief to chief of staff is a fairly typical career arc).
Also likely to come over from the campaign is Alan Binder, Gore's main economic advisor during the campaign. Binder will probably get to be chairman of
the National Economic Council.
And speaking of top advisors, Leon Fuerth is guaranteed of becoming Gore's National Security Advisor. Fuerth is a long-time Gore friend, and the top national
security advisor to the Gore Campaign. Fuerth has long advocated "forward engagement", which consists of intervening in world events early rather than
later, in order to prevent the need for military force.
Back to the Future at the State Department
Gore has expressed some positive words about Richard Holbrooke, ambassador to the United Nations and an Assistant Secretary of State earlier in the Clinton
Administration.
What complicates his selection, though, is that Holbrooke has been doing everything just shy of buying billboards in Washington to campaign for the job.
Still, Gore seems taken with Holbrooke, and might appreciate his strong desire for the top job at State.
If Holbrooke's campaigning ends up being self-defeating, two other possibles are Democratic Party "statesmen": George Mitchell (author of the constantly-about-to-crumble
Irish peace accords and a former majority leader in the Senate) and Lee Hamilton (once thought to be a possible Mike Dukakis running mate -- and considered
to be expert in foreign policy matters). (TDems have been turning to Hamilton a lot of late, and of the three he's the easiest to get through a probably GOP senate).
Haven't We Seen This Name Before?
The top job at Defense is likely to be offered to Sam Nunn, the retired Georgia Senator. What makes this interesting is that Sam Nunn is also a possible
Secretary of Defense in a Bush Administration (albeit only as a dark horse).
If Nunn doesn't want the job under Gore, it'll likely go to Richard Danzig, Clinton's current Secretary of the Navy. Danzig's problem though, is similar
to Holbrooke's -- he's been campaigning for the job rather stridently, and with somewhat less success than Holbrooke.
In addition, a dark horse possibility for the top job at Defense is long-time Gore friend Norman Dicks, Democratic congressman from Washington State. (Smart money's on Nunn, for similar reasons to Hamilton. He was going to be a colorful character in my TL, the man out of step with the admin. like Powell in the Bush admin. though on the more conservative side).
Keeping the Till
Just as in Bush's case, the Treasury Department may go to one of Gore's top contributors. (There's something of an ironic symmetry to this: in the Clinton
Administration, the job, after briefly landing in Lloyd Benten's lap, went to Richard Rubin, a top contributor to the Clinton Campaign. Perhaps the thinking
is that anyone who can deliver that much money to a political campaign must know something about keeping Uncle Sam's books too. Or more likely, anyone
who can deliver that much in political contributions needs to recoup his investment.)
In this case, that man is Steve Rattner, formerly the deputy CEO at investment bank Lazard Freres, and now the head guy at Quadrangle Group, a private bank
and investment group.
But just as with Clinton, there's someone who might get the job first: Lawrence Sommers, the current Secretary of the Treasury is also a good Gore friend
and supporter, and Gore may need to use the top job at Treasury as a political payment before he can give the job to Rattner.
The dark horse in this group is James Johnson, former head of Fannie Mae, and a top Mondale operative (which may disqualify him from just about any political
job, given how badly Walter Mondale ran his 1984 campaign). (The same Sommers who got drummed out of Harvard unless I miss my guess. This one's a toss-up, and probably not as relevant unless you're wonkishly inclined).
Keeping the Peace
The Department of Justice is also likely to get an overhaul during the Gore Administration, just as it will in a possible Bush Administration. But for different
reasons: the Gore Campaign has privately fumed that mid-level people at the DOJ have been less-than-supportive of Gore's run, and except for some last-minute
heroics by Janet Reno (for which, sadly, she will not be rewarded by the Gore Administration), the DOJ might have been their biggest problem in getting
Gore elected.
So, the only holdover with a shot at the top job is Gore ally Eric Holder, who would become the first black Attorney General. Holder is a darling of liberals,
and would help Gore demonstrate his commitment to enforcing civil rights laws, among others.
Gore has two other key contenders for this job, though. Long-time Gore friend and advisor Jack Quinn wants this job too. Quinn served as deputy White House
counsel under Clinton and was very skilled at navigating the treacherous political waters for both Clinton and Gore -- in addition, Quinn did a great job
as an "unofficial" spokesperson for the legal aspects of the Lewinsky scandals for the Clinton Administration.
Gore also has another long-time friend and advisor interested in the job: Frank Hunger, who was married to Nancy Gore, his late sister. Hunger is a top
advisor to the Gore Campaign, and worked at the DOJ earlier.
The two candidates from this group who don't get the job will likely find employment elsewhere in the Gore Administration. (Holder: Gore wants to make a statement and, if I'm write about defense and state, needs a prominent liberal in a high cabinet job).
One other possibility is Dennis Archer, the current mayor of Detroit. Seen generally as an unlikely pick, Gore may go to Archer if he finds other posts
for Quinn and Hunger, and Eric Holder turns out unsuitable for the job.
Educating Al
The Department of Education tends to be a dumping ground in both Republican and Democratic administrations, and while Gore will put more emphasis on education
than usual, don't expect anything different this time here.
One of the leading contenders is Tom Carper, who is challenging Bill Roth in Delaware for his senate seat.
If Carper is Senator Carper come January, then the two other possibles are Jim Hunt, governor of North Carolina (and a Democrat), who is in his fourth term
there and looking to establish a national platform for himself. Being Secretary of Education could accomplish that.
And Bruce Reed, chief Domestic Policy Advisor in the Clinton White House is a candidate for this position as well, but more of a dark horse. (Carper won his election, which won't be changed here. So I think it goes to Hunter).
HHS: Patronage Plum
Unlike in Republican Administrations (which tend to spend their terms trying to take apart the Department of Health and Human Services), Democrats tend
to make HHS their key political patronage plum -- a great way to reward loyal workers with scads of high-pay/low-work jobs and special programs.
HHS under Gore should follow this mold, and the top plum here will likely go to Tom Downey, long-time Gore advisor and a close friend of Al Gore. (Downey
lost a re-election bid for his House seat some years ago, and has been a Gore hanger-on since then).
If Downey isn't the pick, Gore may go with Ann Richards -- if for no other reason than picking Richards would be the ultimate slap at George W. Bush (since
Richards was the Texas Governor that George W. Bush beat, and Richards also gave the famous "Poor George" speech at the 1988 Democratic Convention that
excoriated George H. Bush).
Or if Gore is feeling less vindictive, he'll go with David Kessler, the former Clinton FDA chairman who is quite well-respected and a bit of a policy wonk.
Two other less political candidates include Nancy-Ann Min DeParle, the current head of the Health Care Financing Administration (which runs Medicare) and
David Satcher, Clinton's Surgeon General. (Don't know on this one).
Laboring for a Job
The Department of Labor also tends to be a key patronage plum, and this time around, there's little doubt it will go to the occasionally controversial Donna
Brazile.
Brazile has been a top Gore advisor and campaign worker, dating back to the pre-purge days of 1999, and has been very instrumental in getting black support
for Gore.
Brazile does have a penchant for outrageous and occasionally controversial statements -- she's the black female equivalent of James Watt. Still, Gore will
reward her hard work with the top job at Labor.
Down on the Farm
The Agriculture Department will likely continue on its present course of pouring federal money into ailing farms while trying very hard to not look like
it's actually doling out handouts.
Gore has a couple of choices here, which include Jill Long Thompson, a current Ag official in the Clinton Administration.
But the two more likely choices are more political. Charles Stenholm, a Texas congressman is likely to get redistricted out of office in 2002, and will
be shopping around for a job before then. Being Secretary of Agriculture might just be his cup of tea.
And Gore may need to give the moderates in the Democratic Leadership Council a nod, and one way of doing that is to give Gary Condit the job. While not
necessarily a top DLC guy himself, Condit is a top Blue Dog Democrat (a group of southern conservative Democrats in Congress), and might be able to help
Gore in 2004 to crack a solid GOP south. (Condit scandal possibilities are interesting here, and of course, every admin. has a good scandal or two, so I'd give it to him with Stenholm getting it when Condit is forced to resign).
The Political Environment at the EPA
The top job at EPA will be a star job in the Gore Administration -- if for no other reason that Gore has a monumentally large need to prove to Nader voters
that he can be trusted with environmental issues.
The most likely candidate for this position is Kathleen McGinty. McGinty is the top environmental advisor to the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and
is also chairman of the White House Council on Environmental Quality. She is very well respected among more liberal environmentalists and would likely
satisfy most Nader voters.
But Gore may go for star power for such a position, and the leading candidate for this would then become Kathleen Kennedy Townsend, the eldest child of
Democratic icon Robert Kennedy. Townsend is currently the Lieutenant Governor of Maryland, and has been desperately seeking a national stage for her career.
It would be hard to think of a better one.
A dark horse for this position, ironically enough, turns out to be Townsend's boss: Maryland Governor Parris Glendening. He's an advocate of Federal intervention
in urban planning to prevent urban sprawl, and a Gore respects his views and ideas on planning and environmental issues. (Gore's going to pick this one carefully, though I couldn't say who. Townsend would have interesting knock-on political effects in Maryland).
Energy: No Star Power Here
Despite concerns over energy policy and oil shortages, Gore would put most of the emphasis on his Administration's energy policy directly in the White House
staff, and possibly at the EPA. So the Department of Energy in the Gore Administration is not really the place to be for up-and-coming politicians.
That said, the frontrunner is retiring Nevada Senator Richard Bryan, who is a big consumer rights advocate and has blocked plans to place nuclear waste
in his state.
Other possibilities include Tom Grumbly, a strong Gore loyalist who was on Gore's senate staff and who worked in the Clinton Administration earlier, heading
up a nuclear waste cleanup program, and T.J. Glauthier, a current Deputy Secretary in the Clinton Energy Department. (No idea here).
The Equal Employment Act for Democrats
Gore won't be shaking up many of the Federal departments in his administration. Most of the middle-level hierarchy will remain intact, and with the exception
of a few Gore loyalists and newcomers, the real changes will occur in the White House staff itself.
Other possible candidates for the various remaining cabinet officials include Terry McAuliffe, a key DNC fundraiser, and Alexis Herman, the first black
woman to head the Department of Labor (under Clinton) and Norman Mineta, the first Asian-American to hold a top cabinet post (also under Clinton). Peter
Knight, another DNC operative and former Gore Chief of Staff will likely also find employment in a Gore Administration. Still, Democrats can expect four more years of continued employment and job opportunities in a Gore Administration.
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In the short term . I suspect that Al Gore would be the center of highly polarized opinions . Some would hail him a hero for winning the war against Terrorism ( Which would very likely still be declared in one form or another) , but others would vehemently crictisize his tax hikes ( especially cooporate taxes) . Outsourcing might be attributed to such actions .
His Energy Independence agenda would likely be also severely lambested by his opponents . It will take several natural disasters to change the minds of his detractors . By then , he would no longer be in office .
His presidency might , firstly , set a standard and the blue prints for energy dependence . This will set a precedence for future administrations . It is possible that the American government will awaken to the threat of global warming far sooner .
It is unlikely that he will make it past his first term , since his policies , while putting America in a good stead in the long run , would be rediculed for weakening the American economy , and contributing to the loss of American jobs . Even though he's likely to reverse the budget deficit , and curb rampant unsustanable consumerism , his prospects for a second term might be bleak , due to the unpopularity of many of his policies . I suspect that there will be many politically adverse actions taken under his presidency , that will damage USA in the short term , but lay the foundation for the continued strength and the mantainance of US Economic power in the long run .
He would be branded by historians as a far sighted visionary , and future AH Board members would be speculating the effects of a second Gore Term in 2030.
His Energy Independence agenda would likely be also severely lambested by his opponents . It will take several natural disasters to change the minds of his detractors . By then , he would no longer be in office .
His presidency might , firstly , set a standard and the blue prints for energy dependence . This will set a precedence for future administrations . It is possible that the American government will awaken to the threat of global warming far sooner .
It is unlikely that he will make it past his first term , since his policies , while putting America in a good stead in the long run , would be rediculed for weakening the American economy , and contributing to the loss of American jobs . Even though he's likely to reverse the budget deficit , and curb rampant unsustanable consumerism , his prospects for a second term might be bleak , due to the unpopularity of many of his policies . I suspect that there will be many politically adverse actions taken under his presidency , that will damage USA in the short term , but lay the foundation for the continued strength and the mantainance of US Economic power in the long run .
He would be branded by historians as a far sighted visionary , and future AH Board members would be speculating the effects of a second Gore Term in 2030
.As usual, the supporters of Gore would have you believe that had he won the Presidency in '00, all would be peaches and cream by now. Basically a heaven on earth with Al Gore in the White House
Hendryk
Banned
It's obvious to everyone but the most die-hard Bush supporters that the Iraq War was the brainchild of the current administration's neocon coterie. You actually contradict yourself: if gore "limits his campaign to an air campaign as was the case in 96 and 98", then by definition he handles Iraq differently from Bush, which went for all-out invasion and occupation.
In fact, with a war already going on in Afghanistan, it would have been strategically sensible to put the Iraq issue on the back burner. Gore would probably have taken up Saddam Hussein's offer of inspections and, once it did turn out that there no longer were WMDs around, left it at that to focus on the more pressing issue of Al-Qaeda.
In the short term . I suspect that Al Gore would be the center of highly polarized opinions . Some would hail him a hero for winning the war against Terrorism ( Which would very likely still be declared in one form or another) , but others would vehemently crictisize his tax hikes ( especially cooporate taxes) . Outsourcing might be attributed to such actions .
His Energy Independence agenda would likely be also severely lambested by his opponents . It will take several natural disasters to change the minds of his detractors . By then , he would no longer be in office .
His presidency might , firstly , set a standard and the blue prints for energy dependence . This will set a precedence for future administrations . It is possible that the American government will awaken to the threat of global warming far sooner .
It is unlikely that he will make it past his first term , since his policies , while putting America in a good stead in the long run , would be rediculed for weakening the American economy , and contributing to the loss of American jobs . Even though he's likely to reverse the budget deficit , and curb rampant unsustanable consumerism , his prospects for a second term might be bleak , due to the unpopularity of many of his policies . I suspect that there will be many politically adverse actions taken under his presidency , that will damage USA in the short term , but lay the foundation for the continued strength and the mantainance of US Economic power in the long run .
He would be branded by historians as a far sighted visionary , and future AH Board members would be speculating the effects of a second Gore Term in 2030
The President's control over the economy is extremely limited. In the first place, he can't really do anything about it on his own. Congress has to first pass a law that he can sign or veto. In the second place, laws Congress passes don't have a major impact in any case. In short, the American economy is an entity more or less independent of government.