AHQ: Industrialization of an Early Megali Greece

[Teutoberg Forest]

Right now I'm working on a scenario where Greece becomes independent in 1807 and by 1854 is able to annex the lands of the Megali Idea, mainly through opportune moves during Russo-Turkish wars and then a Turkish civil war, and I was wondering how that would affect the industrialization of Greece and western Anatolia vs OTL. I don't know much of the industrial history of the area, but it seems like there was little industrialization iOTL by 1855, and even a more industrial Greece would still pale in comparison to the Great Powers. What would be the best way for this Megali Greece to industrialize?

 

[Kellan Sullivan]

@Lascaris

 

[nickmn]

You would need many different things to happen for Greece to successfully industrialize . The economy of the area in the OTL was highly agricultural . The state was poor and in debt from the day it was officially formed .
Initially , you would face 2 roadblocks . Starting capital and resources .
There would be quite a number of poor farmers that would trade that life for a slightly better one working in a factory for a decent wage . What would be harder to come by is the money that will be needed to kickstart the process . Domestic sources of money would be the 2 groups that had most of the private wealth in their hands . The shipowners and the landholders . Even then , the process would be slow because of the limited amounts they could raise . Outside investment would be another possibility , but it would need to be in very favorable terms . Otherwise , the country would dissent into a never ending downward spiral of mounting debt .
The second (and probably more important) issue you would face is the availability of resources . Iron and Coal are probably the 2 most important resources you would need ( with many others following ) . Here we would need to know the progress of the expansion of the country . Iron is not lacking in any region of the country . Plenty of potential mine sites . None of them would be individually large enough to be a game changer , but the needs would probably be met . Coal is a different story . Greece only has 3 coal mines of any significance . 2 of them only came into Greek possession after the annexation of Macedonia , in the aftermath of the Balkan wars ) . So that would be an issue , depending on the rate of expansion . On the other hand , the Megalopoli mine might be enough for the initial stages . We have no way to know , since the mine only became operational in the 1970s , and because of that we have no way of determining it's output with early 19th century technology .

Other than the specifics of the industry , what lands are we talking about ? The Megali Idea was mostly an abstract concept of liberation and reconquest . No hard borders existed for it and the specific areas would matter greatly . For Greece to actually manage to have that kind of progressive territorial expansion , they would need the support of one or more of the Great Powers . That's pretty much the only way to manage and keep those gains .

 

[Serpent]

Right now I'm working on a scenario where Greece becomes independent in 1807 and by 1854 is able to annex the lands of the Megali Idea, mainly through opportune moves during Russo-Turkish wars and then a Turkish civil war, and I was wondering how that would affect the industrialization of Greece and western Anatolia vs OTL. I don't know much of the industrial history of the area, but it seems like there was little industrialization iOTL by 1855, and even a more industrial Greece would still pale in comparison to the Great Powers. What would be the best way for this Megali Greece to industrialize?

Isn't that much of expansion unfeasible during such a short time span?

Also how did Greece achieved it's independence in 1807?

Through foreign intervention or through an earlier locally inspired uprising? (Like the Filiki Eteria)

Generally speaking, the earlier the independence POD, the more industrialized Greece is gonna end up.

(Have you thought of setting the Orlov revolt in 1770-71 as your independence POD? It was a pretty decent opportunity for independence, the best the Greek people got for centuries tbf)

Other than that, stability matters a lot when it comes to industrialization, IOTL revolutionary Greek government was set on the wrong foundations (heavy infighting, opportunist-cronyist officials etc leading to heavy instability/extremely weak governments for decades post independence that did nothing of essence).

An Orlov revolt POD could provide a far more stable Greek Revolutionary government, due to the heavy Russian meddling during and after the Orlov Revolt if successful.

A compromise candidate would still more than likely take the Greek throne regardless if the earlier date and the lack of support from other great powers, as Russia would be unwilling to expend diplomatic capital in the ensuing peace conference to install a Russian King on the Greek throne, especially when Russia itself is so overextended due to controlling the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth.
The Russian Empire would opt for strategic annexations throughout the Black Sea, exactly like they've pursued IOTL.

Using this background, it's easy to have another great power, a constitutional monarchy like Great Britain, gradually countering the russian influence in the Greek government by influencing/enticing the Greek regime with trade opportunities and capital influx, until eventually the British render the Greek gov into a pro-british one, that would certainly be way less heavy handed, bringing about a Greek constitutional monarchy on far more solid foundations, (without a horrible King like Otto).

From there, it would be pretty easy for Greece to industrialize, then exploit all the opportunities present during the Russo-Turkish wars to greatly enlarge itself, in pursuit of the Megali Idea concept.

Generally I don't think that there is any way for Greece to industrialize fast by western European standards, as it lacks substantial natural resources reserves, and it also completely lacks the capital, so there's single event, or even a combination of events, that could possibly trigger a rapid growth of the Greek industry, given the existence of only minimal natural resources on the Greek soil.

What would be possible would be for a Greece that achieves it's independence earlier to acquire some resource rich colonies in Africa and elsewhere to secure enough resources for it's emerging industry.

Also the Balkans have quite a few resources that Greece could really use for it's nascent industry, maybe the newly independent Balkan states emerging from the collapse of the earlier Ottoman Empire could enter into the Greek orbit, at least Albania & Serbia that is, as the Kosovo and Nis area is a decently resource rich one.

 

[Wendell]

Is this a timeline in which the Ottoman coups of 1807-1808 leave the state without a dynast?

 

[Teutoberg Forest]

So the POD is the Parthenon doesn't get blown up by the Venetians in 1683, which inspires the founding of a Greece wide educational society, essentially merging the many attempts at founding private schools and academies into one big organization. This leads to a more unified, nationalist, and secular Greek upper class by 1800, with many Muslim/Turkish people being more liberal and pro-Greek than pro-Ottoman. In 1807 Russia and Turkey go to war amid failed attempts by Turkey to reform, which provides the perfect environment to launch a revolt. The revolt is able to liberate Greece up to Thessaly, and Macedonia and Epirus gain autonomy similar to Wallachia and Moldavia OTL. Fast-foward to the 1840s and the next Russo-Turkish War, is going poorly for the Turks, so they try to call up troops from Macedonia and Epirus in violation of their autonomies, and as a result the countries both revolt and win their independence from the Ottomans before joining with Greece in the Little Enosis. Ten years later, the death of the Sultan provokes a civil war between a modernist heir and his more conservative brother, with both sides exhausting themselves enough that the Ionian and Constantinopolitan Greek populations rise up, and when Greece invades with the army proper they are able to secure essentially the Megali borders, with full control of the Straits and the Aegean.

This obviously would change Greece's economy massively from OTL; just supporting the army would require either a large native arms industry or a stronger economy to pay for the necessary arms imports. The presence of a coordinated education system would have massive effects too, from more inventors and inventions being from Greece to a greater access and contribution to modern ideas. Maybe such a Greece would be able to be an earlier leader in shipping, which it could then leverage into strength in other industries.

 

[nickmn]

So the POD is the Parthenon doesn't get blown up by the Venetians in 1683, which inspires the founding of a Greece wide educational society, essentially merging the many attempts at founding private schools and academies into one big organization.

The Parthenon not blowing up is rather unlikely to affect the people much . Ancient Greek romanticism wasn't really a big thing amongst the Greek populace . It was mostly the reason the foreign volunteers participated , but that's about it . Culturally , the Greek population was much closer to their recent Byzantine roots rather than the far removed ancient Greek civilization . Let's also not forget to that the major prevalence of the Orthodox Church as one of the main influences .
If the revolt starts in Thessaly , the game becomes a "higher risk , higher reward" . A very important factor in this is the very powerful Ali Pasha of Epirus . In OTL , he ended up revolting and this drew quite a few Ottoman troops from the fight against the Greeks . By 1808 , he was already rather displeased with the new Sultan . He may have been a muslim , but overall he seemed to be quite opportunistic , so his loyalties could be up for grabs . He was also moderately pro-Greek (either for personal reasons or to get the backing of his subjects . Lord Byron in his writings praises him for the splendor of his court and the Greek cultural revival he had sponsored and encouraged . At the same time he is appalled by his cruelty and barbarity in his treatment of "rebels" ( the same Greeks whose culture he seems to promote) . Long story short , his involvement would be a deciding factor in a revolt set in your timeline . Worth mentioning here is the fact that with a friendly or even allied Ali Pasha , if the Greeks manage to secure the area fast enough , its easily defendable . The mountain passes between Thessaly and Macedonia would be a very good choke point and the rebels mostly managed to fend off naval invasions .
At the time , the Ottoman empire was also a general mess . Egypt was basically in a low level civil war between Muhammad Ali Pasha ( who was trying to consolidate power ) and the Mamluk noble class , and neither of the 2 sides would bother reinforcing the Sultan , either against the Greek rebels or an outside threat like Russia . Muhammad Ali Pasha only did so in OTL after the Sultan promised him Crete to be added to his personal authority . It's also worth mentioning that the Russians wouldn't be able to commit large numbers of troops against the Ottomans and push deep into their territory because at the time they had to content with Napoleon and his rampage across Europe .

Now in the overall economy of post-war Greece , things would massively change even if Thessaly is the only province gained . OTL Greece first did an official census in 1834 , and the population was at 693,592 . The population of Thessaly was slightly above 200.000 , a significant increase for the new state . More importantly , the Thessalian planes are most likely the most fertile area in Greece and would be a major food producer ( as well as a major producer of cash crops like tobacco and cotton ) .

 

[Teutoberg Forest]

The Parthenon not blowing up was mainly just a pretext to revive Classic Greek Romanticism, and while the Byzantine identity is still respected the Classical identity gains prevalence slowly through increased education and contact with Western Hellenophiles; this also serves to semi-hellenize the more cosmopolitan Muslims rather than excluding them from a more Christian Greek identity. Basically before any revolts happen, the Greek identity is becoming less strictly associated with Orthodox Christianity and more associated with culture, language, and ethnic history.

Ali Pasha in this timeline does side with Greece, without him the revolt would have a shaky chance of success but with him old Greece and Epirus were liberated fairly easily. In the peace settlement Epirus and Macedonia are mandated to be ruled by Christian prince/hospodars/idk what title they'd have, but Ali Pasha is the exception, getting to rule Epirus until his death.

At this time iOTL Russia and the UK were at war with the Ottomans anyways, so with a somewhat more dysfunctional Turkey and a massive Greek revolt the Danube front is a bit better for the Russians, and the OTL Alexandria Expedition by the British becomes the Salonika Expedition and helps the Greeks liberate that city (the Jews of Salonika, while continuing to be their own culture, steadily become closer to the Greeks through educational dialogue in the following years). At some point the Russians and Greeks are able to contact each other around the Pirin Mountains, which is the death knell for the Turks in this war.

So this Greece is much stronger than the OTL version post independence, including Thessaly and Crete and with two neighboring autonomous regions prime for future unification. With the majority of Greeks still in the Ottoman Empire, along with the majority of Greek merchant capital, the economy of Greece is likely to be dependent on that of the Ottomans in the short to medium term, although once the Ionian coast is taken that trade will become domestic rather than international. Other than land reform to increase agricultural exports is there anything Greece can do to get richer faster in this scenario? Maybe adopting steam ships earlier could help but I don't know much about the Greek economy at this time other than what was mentioned in Pride Goes Before a Fall.