AHQ: Could the Nazis have reached the 70th meridian?

[Tanaka did nothing wrong]

That doesn't buy Britain time though. They have interests in the far east and making Japan stronger helps exactly none of them.

OK, except that Britain wasn't inflexible, it was prepared to recognise "Japan's special position" in China - to a certain extent at least, iirc - during the 1930s and try to work with Tokyo.

But even if we take your position, an undistracted Britain would be a greater danger for Japan, and if Southeast Asia was reinforced, the Japanese might think that it would be better to attempt a "Pearl Harbour" like operation against British forces first - if they really need to take over Southeast Asia.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

Or, Britain wants to buy time.

Buying time is the only credible path I can see as any actual British peace deal requires so many changes that it's hard to know what's going on.
However, Britain temporarily unable to effectively land on mainland Europe and essentially unable to do more than minor bombing and coastal raids could work. This would free up enough German combat resources (but not logistics and transport) to have a chance of taking out Russia.
Maybe a pacifist British government persists with unilateral disarmament to the point where defence is only just possible but intervention isn't practical. Chamberlain comes in just after Munich goes wrong , starts rearming but later and from a virtually zero base can't even begin to actively influence events for years. There's now a race against time to take over Russia before Britain can launch an effective attack on the mainland......

 

[Booster Gold]

OK, except that Britain wasn't inflexible, it was prepared to recognise "Japan's special position" in China - to a certain extent at least, iirc - during the 1930s and try to work with Tokyo.

But even if we take your position, an undistracted Britain would be a greater danger for Japan, and if Southeast Asia was reinforced, the Japanese might think that it would be better to attempt a "Pearl Harbour" like operation against British forces first - if they really need to take over Southeast Asia.

Accept and work with ≠ selling the instrument with which to destroy them. Britain will accept the Japanese position in China. They will not give Japan the means to attack Britain. No country, even under the best of conditions, is going to willy-nilly sell strategic resources to an aggressive power; an aggressive power that just happens to be allied with their greatest enemy? No way. The days of appeasement are long done and they're not coming back, even if Britain gets a bloody nose from the Germans.

 

[merlin]

Just because Britain is at peace doesn't mean it's going to start selling strategic resources to aggressive, hostile powers

1st - a price worth paying to get POWs back, and not give any more territories away than you have to.
2nd - while Britain could get away with no occupation, I could well imagine would want to be able to monitor British arms production.

 

[Booster Gold]

1st - a price worth paying to get POWs back, and not give any more territories away than you have to.

Giving a belligerent the means to attack you really, really isn't a price worth paying. Again, appeasement has been tried and failed. No one will try it again. This might have worked in 1930. 100% not in 1940.

2nd - while Britain could get away with no occupation, I could well imagine would want to be able to monitor British arms production.

Germany can want all they want, so long as the Royal Navy is intact their ability to dictate terms is limited. Thus will be a non-starter and since Hitler wants peace on the western front anyway, he's not going to be twisting arms - especially not for the Japanese.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

If there is no organized military force opposing them, German forces could march to the Amur. Imperial Russian troops did it in the 17th century, on foot or horseback. Soviet remnants in western Siberia could put up some resistance, but could not withstand attack by a major modern power.

 

[John_MC]

I don't think there's any way Germany could reach. The Russians would destroy anything useful as they fell back. Germany doesn't have the reserves to rebuilt it.

 

[Gillan1220]

If there is no organized military force opposing them, German forces could march to the Amur. Imperial Russian troops did it in the 17th century, on foot or horseback. Soviet remnants in western Siberia could put up some resistance, but could not withstand attack by a major modern power.

The question is though is there a reason for the Germans to reach the Amur River? Or the practicality of such. The Germans weren't aiming to conquer the whole of the USSR. They just needed more space west of the Urals as part of Generalplan Ost.

I don't think there's any way Germany could reach. The Russians would destroy anything useful as they fell back. Germany doesn't have the reserves to rebuilt it.

The Red Army were really good in scorched-earth tactics.

 

[TDM]

The Red Army were really good in scorched-earth tactics.

True, but in this scenario they've been destroyed, there is no organised retreat here

 

[Scerus]

That doesn't buy Britain time though. They have interests in the far east and making Japan stronger helps exactly none of them.

They don't have a choice. If they don't get oil they have to make peace in China and any politician who tries to make peace in China will be assassinated and replaced with someone more compliant.

As far as Hitler, part of the reason he declared war on the US was his sad fantasy about a global conflict that Nazi Germany would come out on top of. It was a romantic decision as much as anything. Soviet collapse doesn't change that. In fact, it may make it even more likely as he's got his own version of Victory Disease in this scenario

The reason the Dutch oil embargo happened in the first place was because the Netherlands was under occupation and the Dutch East Indies were naturally under the jurisdiction of the Free Dutch Government. If it is a puppet government, or even governed like occupied Denmark, the Dutch might not even impose their own embargo to satisfy American and British interests.