AHD/AHP: A note on the Late Bronze Age 'Grand Chessboard'

Which Kingdom would be most likely to dominate considering the points mentioned?

  • Elam, the United Kingdom of Anshan and Susana

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In the Bronze Age, the so-called Three periods are defined roughly as the Early, Middle and Late periods. All of which possessed their own political climate and scenario.

The Late Bronze Age extends from 3500-2100 BCE. It comprises the end of the Uruk period in its early part and the decline of a truly ancient Sumero-Akkadian dominated Middle East, which reached its pinnacle around 3600 BCE in the Copper Age. Following it, was a period of fragmentation and city conflict in Mesopotamia and political centralization in Elam and Egypt, corresponding to the Golden Age of the IV Dynasty of Egypt and the Awan recovery phase and Elamite countering the Sumerian states and succeeding by 2600 BCE in Elamizing Susa and the surrounding countryside. The ending phase of the period, we see the rise of more powerful states in Mesoptamia once again and a culture of supremacy, aggression and revanchism. In that sphere, the kingdom of Akkad ascends to uniting Mesopotamia and thenceforth, conquering Syria and Tabal and in its later phases, conquering as far south as Oman, as far east as Media and the conquest of Elam fully. The Late Bronze Bronze Age ends ultimately however with the fall of the Old Kingdom, of Egypt, the X dynasty, the fall of the Akkadian kingdom under Sharlakishari and the division of Elam. This corresponded with large scale droughts and famines in Mesoptamia, Egypt, Syria and Anatolia.

The Middle Bronze Age, succeeded this and lasted from 2100-1531 BCE. This period saw the rapid return of the Akkad styled empire, with the rise of Ur-Nammu in 2047 BCE, which reunited Mesopotamia and his dynasty, the Ur III, would rule the region and become the hegemon of the Middle East for approximately 110 years. The brevity of said empire, was cut short in 1940 BCE, with a series of famines, combined with an Elamite invasion and followed by the rise of an Amorite mercenary phenomena. The fall of Ur III was heralded by the rise of Amorite princes and mercenary across the land, which were hired by Ibbi-Sin to battle the Elamites, they ended up turning on their contractors and battling for supremacy along the Euphrates River. These Amorite invaders in the south consolidated around several major cities, mainly Larsa, while an Akkado-Sumerian loyalist state formed in three distinct cities; Isin, Eshnunna and Ashur. Nevertheless, Amorite invaders continually pushed in, whilst Elamite attacks continued on both realms, while Ashur experienced invasions from the north by Hurrian, Kassite, Lullubi and other northern and eastern folk for the years between 1900-1800 BCE.

In the 18th century BCE, issues became more compacted, as the region was divided into three powers, the Larsa Amorite state, Assyria and Babylon. The Babylonian kingdom, with the assistance, would manage to conquer Larsa, and form a short hegemony over the region and even over Assyria, as Assyria declined in the reign of Ishme-Dagon (1776-1736 BCE). However, the Babylonian dominance was short indeed, for in the 17th and 16th centuries, Babylon lost its hegemony to rebellions across the region and a series of invasions from the northeast, by a group of chariot-riding elites known as Kassites. In culmination, an invasion of the Hittites in 1531 BCE, thus beginning the Late Bronze Age.

This Late Bronze Age, saw the development of a curious situation. In the past periods of the Bronze Age, we could argue, that there was only one true possible hegemony in the entire Middle East, that being the Akkad-Sumerian empire and successors. The other states of the region, generally were simply barricades and or coalitions meant to stop the hegemonic power of these realms. In that sense, there was no real conflict, as Egypt, though a soft-trading power and influence, was not a hegemonic power outside of Africa. Likewise, only at the very tailend of the Middle Bronze Age, was the Hattian states united and able to wage wars of hegemony in the south. What emerged, was a true chessboard of competing, diverse and divergent states. I would personally argue, that at no other time in history, has there been such a diverse civilizational competition in a geopolitical and cultural sense.

These players that emerged in the years following the destruction of Babylon by Hittite king Mursili I (1561-1530 BCE) were the following, described:

1. The New Kingdom of Egypt

The ancient power of Egypt, was one of the oldest at play and certainly the most renowned, yet it was also the newest to the games of northern geopolitics. In the prior Eras of Egypt, the Egyptian state was relatively internally focused in Africa aside from mercantile trade networks. Egyptian monarchs had yet to campaign far from the Nile Valley and the northern reaches of the Middle East were unknown to them. However, Egypt had been forced into recognition of the outside world with the Hyskos Invasion of the Second Intermediate Period and the subsequent sectional conflict in the Nile Delta between the Hyskos and the Theban XVIII Dynasty. Ahmose I of the XVIII Dynasty, would conquer the Hyskos and unite Egypt in 1549 BCE. His son, Amenhotep I would rule thus 1524-1503 BCE, begetting Thutmose I in 1503 BCE, who would shake the world with his campaigns northward.

It would seem that the Egyptian understanding of expansion, was purely one of protection and assertion of harmony of an interior. Thus, rather than any sort of true expansionist sentiment, Egypt expanded to establish a series of tributaries and buffer zones. All of which payed nothing to Egypt, aside from a tribute and an agreement to not rebel. Egypt gave said states no protection and afforded them meagre trading rights. Nevertheless, Egyptian sovereignty was not to be trifled with. Thutmose I (1503-1493 BCE) proved his intention to establish Egyptian authority outside of the Nile Valley, when his armies surged north into Canaan.

There, Egypt defeated hundreds of small disorganized Canaanite city states and drove forth remaining Amorite tribal realms along the frontier. Egyptian expansion saw too the conquest of Damascus and afterwards, Thutmose I reached the Euphrates river, yet asserted his authority nowhere beyond the river Euphrates. This conquest phase was ephemeral however, as after the demise of Thutmose I, much of the region erupted into a rebellion, that was not contested until Thutmose III (1479-1425 BCE). In the midst of Egyptian hegemony, a new power however was forming that beckoned to Egypt as a great foe and challenged the old empire to a decisive geopolitical struggle series.

Egypt, with its age and learned secrets, was the largest of the states involved in terms of pure territorial extent and the most well-removed from the conflicts. Much of the warring woudl and could not be felt by the average Egyptian. Further, the Egyptian society, heavy in grandiose splendor and celebration, was ruled by a Divine King, who could not be defeated; the country would thus remain enthusiastic. However, could Egypt, unaccustomed to such distant wars be able to sustain and dominate the kingdoms oft he north to form a hegemony? Or will their insular nature get the better of them?

2. The Mitanni kingdom

In the destruction of Babylon, by the Hittites, a new series of people emerged from the north. Kassites from the northeast and the Mitanni from the true north. Both of these peoples migrated into Mesopotamia, each with distinct chariot-styled forces. Both too, were rather than a collective people, seemingly an elite caste of warriors whose skill and renown was solely chariot warfare and horse raising. The Mitanni, a seemingly Indo-European group of elites from the region north of Lake Van, possibly from beyond Trasncaucasia conquered the vast collective of the Hurrian cities and tribes around the Upper Euphrates and assimilated to them, residing in a city called Washukanni.

The Mitanni state formed under a king named Kirta sometime in the years of 1530-1499 BCE. The kingdom emerged after the demise of Thutmose I in 1493 BCE, as an emerging hegemony. With a seeming alliance with the great king of Karduniash, Agum III, the kingdom of Mitanni under Kirta and his son Parshatatar, would create a hegemony in the Upper Euphrates and Syria.

This Mitanni hegemony is noteworthy specifically for its model of rule. Namely the Mitanni using its chariot elites and possibly a rapid scene of conquests, would establish what recent papers describe as a checkpoint empire. The Mitanni, rather than rule territorial holdings, instead ruled only particular checkpoints and then vassalised all areas in between as 'allies.' Thus, the Mitanni state at its height, would have appeared on a map as a series of frankly, hundreds of subsject kings and vassals, with dots of Mitanni held chekpoints interspersed among these hundreds of vassals. According to Egyptian annals, the Mitanni in 1455 BCE, ruled over 330+ vassal kings in Syria and the Upper Euphrates. Alongside the formation of these checkpoints, was the establishment of a warrior-caste elite called Maryanu, which were exported to every checkpoint as the royal caste of each checkpoint and to subject states as their warrior elite. Recent discoveries suggest that these elites were all entirely from the Mitanni upper class and amounted to the ultra-elite charioteer class of the people.

This patchwork checkpoint hegemony, was seemingly very powerful and it perfectly respected the diversity and decentralized nature of Bronze Age Canaan and the Upper Euphrates. However, the Mitanni were squished between many different entities and would struggle to maintain its hegemony. Likewise, could a hyper-elite military caste and a swarm of vassals be enough to overcome the chessboard surrounding the Mitanni?

3. The Kingdom of Karduniash

As the Mitanni elites ruled the Hurrians, another charioteer elites arrived into the ancient lands of Sumer and Akkad. They arrived upon a rich and ancient land, teeming with peoples, powerful gods and a society of aggressive warfare and high culture. Yet, these peoples, were divided and broken. The fall of the Babylonian kingdom in 1531 BCE, led to the rise of a weak Sealand Dynasty in Sumer, which was no match for the Kassite king Agum III, whose father Ulambuariash conquered them in 1479 BCE and Agum III finished the state by conquering Dilmun in Arabia in the year 1465 BCE.

This new Kassite kingdom was called in Akkadian, Karduniash and it was centred in Babylon, Sippar, Borsippa and Galzu, all of whom were within a short distance from each other on the Euphrates River. This realm came to resemble otl's Manchu period or the Qing dynasty of China, that being a foreign people and caste ruling a more ancient and large society-populace, yet as a result of this, took great lengths to assimilate and assert said culture. The Kassites of the region asserted more than anything, a distinctly Akkadian mode of governance, law, religion and a very pristine and clear Akkadian language, with additions from Kassite. Likewise, they added horse-drawn-chariots to the Akkadian military model and reasserted the legacy of the Akkadian emperors, by claiming grandiose titles such as 'King of the Universe' 'Lord of the Lands' and 'Governor of the Great Gods.'

The Kassite realm in the year 1455 BCE, was possibly the most populous, wealthiest and most financially stable of the powers at play in the Late Bronze Age. It also possessed one of the most proficient chariot-based armies of the period, alongside the largest city of the world. However, despite the grandiose titles and relation to the Akkadian culture of old, the royalty of the Kassites lessened the supremacist tones of Akkadian cosmological opinions when it came to geopoltics. Permitting the Kassite kings to make long lasting political alliances, cede territory, build fortifications and so forth. However, it also perhaps blunted the militaristic edge in diplomacy that the older realms of the region once held. It was a question of what was most proficient in the creation of empire, war-making and aggression or stable diplomacy, cultural progress and economic prosperity?

4. Assyrian kingdom

The Assyrian kingdom, the most northern outpost of Sumero-Akkadian society, was the only one of the Sumerian states after 1940 BCE, to break the Amorite yoke and assert a nativist Akkadian political agenda. It was thus, the northern extent of Sumero-Akkadian civilization, centered on the Tigris River and close to invasions from the north and east. As such, the Assyrian state developed a hyper-militaristic mentality for defensive and offensive reasons. Necessity to resist invading hill-folk from the north and east, led to a custom of annual and constant wars within Assyrian society.

To entertain this, the Assyrian state operated as a large government controlled by a clique of nobles, merchants and eunuchs. Nobles ruled the lands and gathered levies and fought on the frontlines. Eunuchs commanded the armies in the field in service of the King and acted as field marshals. Merchants acted as military logistic heads and spies for the Assyrian military. If Prussia could be called an Army with a Government, Assyria would be an Army with a Society and Civilization. Merchants, farmers and so forth were all seen as military assets and every farmer available would be drafted by the state for the annual campaign. Likewise, the Assyrian king, asserted a series of state monopolies over military goods and strategic items. Merchants, especially those sent abroad, were counted as military bureaucrats and even the lowest farmer was seen as tools for military subjugation of those around them.

All of this radical militarization was found in a single aggressive cosmological point. While the Karduniash kingdom of the south softened its outward aggressive cosmological opinions, Assyria only hardened them and fastened them to an aggressive military agenda. This agenda was the 'completion of Duranki' or the Completion of Creation, whereby Assyria, the state endowed with the duty of world conquest by the Great Gods, was instructed to subjugate and annihilate all pretense of rebellion against the Great Gods. This meant that Assyria made little to no alliances and acted a hyper-aggressive entity, viewing often all around it, aside from Karduniash, to be sinners and or non-humans/half-humans.

Despite that aggressive tone, Assyria in 1455 BCE, is a small state. It is the smallest of all the states around it, the weakest economy and the least expansive in resources. How can a state so small compete in the river with those much larger and prosperous?


5. The United Kingdom of Elam

Elam was an ancient land, a land cursed by war and troubles, one that learned firsthand the devastation wrought by the Akkado-Sumerians. Their great salvation for years was their mountains and their resilience. For every invasion, Elam retreated into the hills and returned stronger-ever-more. Likewise, Elam in the Early Bronze Age, commanded the southwestern stop of the Eurasian trade network, gaining great wealth from its connection to the Oxus Civilization and the Indus Valley peoples. Yet, Elam would decline and the great state would break into pieces after the XVIII century BCE. These pieces were Anshan in the east and Susana in the west.

In the year 1464 BCE, the Elamite realms were reunited under the Kidunids and the Idelhakids of Anshan. These Anshani kings, were of a steppe origin, most likely Kassite, yet they adopted the customs of Elam. Anshan conquered Susa and asserted the unity of the two kingdoms. From there, Elam would exist as the fringe of the Western Bronze Age world. It would be an eclectic realm, connecting its power north and east through trade connections and a series of Elamite colonizing efforts in the mountains and plains of the Iranian Plateau.

Elamite interests while gaining peacefully in the east, were buttressed by the understanding and memory of fear from the east. Elam represented thus a patient power on the east, that promoted a seeming realpolitck. Allying states for its own purposes, supporting migratory groups, supporting rebellion and checking hegemonies as the ally of small states. All the while biding its time until it could make a hegemonic gamble of its own. Elam was described as lessers who 'hide in mountains' by the Akkadians of the day... no better word could describe how the Elamite geopolitical approach operated in this period.

6. The Hittite Kingdom

In the Middle Bronze age, a series of migrations from the region of Thrace and Bithynia caused changes in Anatolia. an unknown set of ancient folk were replaced by a series of Indo-European peoples who formed into distinct groups across the region. In the west, these were the Arzawa, in the north the Pala, in the southwest the Lukka, in the direct south/east the Kizzuwatna and in the central the Hittites. The Hittites were the first of these to form into a large kingdom uniting the direct east of the Halys River and building a fortress city called Hattusha in the XVII century BCE.

This Hittite state became a known power in the region, with deep ties to the south through trade and a growing internal economic and martial power. Subjugating the Pala and enforcing tribute from the Arzawa, the Hittite kingdom was growing rapidly in the 1500s BCE. This culminated in an invasion and destruction of Babylon in 1531 BCE. However, subsequent rebellion in Syria, the rise of Mitanni and the invasion by the Kaska, led to the Hittite hegemony to break and decline.

Yet, the Hittite kingdom by the year 1455 BCE is in a relatively isolated phase of rule after the demise of Telepinus in 1456 BCE, yet the ruling dynasty remained strong and the Hittite kingdom maintained a hegemony in Central Anatolia. This Hittite kingdom could be described as the most advanced in terms of treaties, vassalage and the most extensive in terms of dealing with divergent cultures. The Hittites were called 'the people of 1000 gods' for a reason, that they were viewed as a people exceptionally tolerant of other gods and other sub-kings. Hittite monarchical rule is described as a feudal realm, wherein the Hittite monarchy possessed a sufficiently large corpus of legal content and complex oath-making to where vassals possessed a reason to be attached to the Hittite capitol. Likewise, Hittite vassals were not only settled people, but semi-sedentary folks and tribes, whom the Hittites diplomatically made alliances and treaties with according to their custom, making the Hittites the most complex and nuanced in their approach to non-settled farming folk in the region.

Unlike the Mitanni, who commanded vassals in a sort of network of allies and derived local elites or the subjugated tributary vassals of Egypt, the Hittites commanded vassals as if they were integral parts of their realm, similar to medieval France. The King was the 'Great King' who granted titles and lands to his allies, vassals and distributed rewards to those who supported him. Likewise, his country was united not by Hittite military power, but by law and legal precedence, which was a Hittite innovation of sorts.

Despite these advantages, the Hittites are also placed precariously close to Thracia and the Eurasian steppe, where invasions could occur. Likewise, could law and legal bindings be enough to bind states together when the military fails?


After reading all of this; the question for the reader, is without knowledge of what occurred in history, which states of those mentioned, would you have assumed to be most likely to gain a hegemonic presence in the region from Iran in the east, to Transcaucasia in the North, to Egypt and Arabia in the south and the Mediterranean Sea in the west?
 
In the relevant timeframe, Egypt is probably the one I'd bet on.
There is an excellent TL by @NikoZnate on the topic on this board, though now long discontinued (I'd be glad to see it revived but that seems to have been dormant for years so I would not count on it).
The problem Egypt had was the marked cultural "Egyptocentrism" of its elites, which may make it a poorer fit for managing a vast and diverse, ever expanding empire: after all, Egyptian ruling elites had little incentive to engage in costly foreign ventures to control far away places they had relatively little care about, and that they felt they did not need. This starkly contrasts with the centripetal approach at Empire by Sumero-Akkadian states, who in general avidly sought after resources, security and power over neighbours for the needs of their own imperial center (a quest justified in terms of a religious mandate to serve the central temples and the God therein honoured, as yourself discussed at length in other threads). Egypt entirely lacked that sort of religious approach to conquest as far as I know, and, in the Late Bronze Age, had no pressing need secure critical resources beyond her own sphere in the Levant (which we know the Egyptian rulers tended to see with some disdain anyway).
So Egypt has more resources, manpower and organisation than anyone else on the chessboard... but precisely because of that, she lacks much motive.
A more decisive/luckier Eighteenth Dynasty could have changed that, with the motive emerging, for instance, in the realization that Hatti under Suppiluliuma and his successors were indeed a significant security threat warranting serious reaction (or, as in the TL cited above, in a successful Atenist reform).
Second I would rank either the Hatti themselves, or Elam, both experienced in managing a diverse population and with a strong drive/motive to expand (Elam did little of that in this phase, but jumped at the chances immediately after the Bronze Age Collapse, so probably the underlying desire could emerge easily in the right context). Hatti lacks the manpower though, as probably does Elam. It may also be the case that this time's Elam had enough internal political issues about her own cohesion to press to the offensive like Iron Age Assyrians did.
Karduniash was losing centrality both demographic and economical. I have hard time seeing it as an expansionist power in this period - They're boxed in geopolitically too.
Mitanni was probably too decentralized - they also lacked the same resource base and demography of other players, despite their undeniable feats. Shallower admistrative structure too I'd think.
Finally, Assyria. What they managed IOTL in this period is in itself impressive... the way Ashur Uballit exploited the fall of Mitanni was a major rebound. It is hard, however, to see what better they could have done in the context - I'd tentatively consider it the near-best case scenario for a Late Bronze Age Assyrian state, unless they can somehow conquer Karduniash and further snowball from there... which would probably shift the center of the new polity there (an "Assyrian dynasty of Babylon" as opposed to Assyria). And that would be unlikely anyway.
 
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In the relevant timeframe, Egypt is probably the one I'd bet on.
There is an excellent TL by @NikoZnate on the topic on this board, though now long discontinued (I'd be glad to see it revived that seems to have been dormant for years so I would not count on it).
The problem Egypt had was the marked cultural "Egyptocentrism" of its elites, which may make it a poorer fit for managing a vast and diverse, ever expanding empire: after all, Egyptian ruling elites has little incentive to engage in costly foreign venture to control far away places they had relatively little care about, and that they felt they did not need. This starkly contrasts with the centripetal approach at Empire by Sumero-Akkadian states, who in general avidly sought after resources, security and power over neighbours for the needs of their own imperial center (a quest justified in terms of a religious mandate to serve the central temples and the God therein honoured, as yourself discussed at length in other threads). Egypt entirely lacked that sort of religious approach to conquest as far as I now, and, in the Late Bronze Age, had no pressing need secure critical resources beyond her own sphere in the Levant (which we know the Egyptian rulers tended to see with some disdain anyway).
So Egypt has more resources, manpower and organisation than anyone else on the chessboard... but precisely because of that, she lacks much motive.
A more decisive/luckier Eighteenth Dynasty could have changed that, with the motive emerging, for instance, in the realization the Hatti under Suppiluliuma and his successors were indeed a significant security threat warranting serious reaction (or, as in the TL cited above, in a successful Atenist reform).
Second I would rank either the Hatti themselves, or Elam, both expericienced in managing a diverse population and with a strong drive/motive to expand (Elam did little of that in this phase, but jumped at the chances immediately after the Bronze Age Collapse, so probably the underlying desire could emerge easily in the right context). Hatti lacks the manpower though, as probably does Elam. It may also be the case that this time's Elam had enough internal political issues about internal cohesion to press to the offensive like Iron Age Assyrians did.
Karduniash was losing centrality both demographic and economical. I have hard time seeing it as an expansionist power in this period - They'r boxed in geopolitically too.
Mitanni was probably too decentralized - they also lacked the same resource base and demography of other players, despite their undeniable feats. Shallower admistrative structure too I'd think.
Finally, Assyria. What they managed IOTL in this period is in itself impressive... the way Ashur Uballit exploited the fall of Mitanni was a major rebound. It is hard, however, to see what better they could have done in the context - I'd tentatively consider it the near-best case scenario for a Late Bronze Age Assyrian state, unless they can somehow conquer Karduniash and further snowball from there... which would probably shift the center of the new polity there (an "Assyrian dynasty of Babylon" as opposed to Assyria). And that would be unlikely anyway.

Egypt look strong at the moment yes, but the Egyptians seemed to shortly after their supposed ascendancy, began to seek friendly ties with a supposedly weak Hatti. To me, this displays that Egypt doubted seriously its ability to outlast the Mitanni in a prolonged war. As we know, Egypt in the coming decades after Thutmose III, would simply support Hittite attacks upon the Mitanni and thus the Hittites gained almost all of the benefits of the weakening Mitanni realm, while Egypt simply exchanged enemies. To me, their lack of initiative and likewise, possible weariness of Mitanni, speaks bounds as to Egypt's prospects.

There is also the issue of Egyptian oaths. Assyria and Karduniash possessed little to no oaths, but at least understood that power was the means by which empire is held together. Egyptian vassalage models, seem very hollow. Canaanite vassals simply agreed to not go to war with Egypt. When these states would be attacked by the Mitanni or others, they would be shocked by Egypt paying no attention to wars erupting in their north, speaking to their disdain of doing any geopoltical work aside from during the reign of very expansionist and or powerful kings like Thutmose I, Thutmose III and Rameses II.

I personally chose Karundiash. Specifically, due to it having the combination of a large economic power base, a wide population, the largest cities, at least one of the best chariot-based armies in the world and holding the geographic centre of the only known past hegemonies over the entire region, namely Akkad and Ur III. The great oddity of Karduniash, is that it possessed a very large realm and a powerful state, yet it seemingly played a peaceful role and tone. It claimed lordship over everyone of its neighbors, but seemingly lacked the willingness to pursue truly expansionist polices.

Yet, it should be mentioned, that Assyria seems to have been to some degree protected by Karduniash during the declining phase of Mitanni. Karduniash kings claim readily that Assyria was one of their appointed kingdoms and that they were protectors of Assyria. Hence why Assyria was usually attacked most readily by Karduniash, as opposed to other states; maybe they feared that attacking Assyria was like attacking an alliance bloc of Assyria-Karduniash? Certainly it can at least be made a point, that Assyria was drifting in vassalage between Mitanni and Karduniash, strategically attacking its overlords and rebelling so as to maximize itself as a polity. It is also worth pointing out, that Assyria reached its climax in this period after having forced Karduniash into a tributary status.

Also, I would agree, Assyria under an astonishing amount of kings, was performing exquisitely. It made almost entirely correct decisions geopoltically. Mostly, in my opinion, because it knew its strengths and weaknesses and maintained a very consistent and thorough political agenda, unlike ANY of the other powers, aside for Elam. Likewise, Assyria, to take a lesson from Chinese Warring-states philosophers Su Qin and Zhang Yi, employed a Bronze Age version of the horizontal and vertical alliances.

Assyria in this period was notoriously fickle in its alliances and activities, befitting its aggressive stance. It shifted between assisting Karduniash and assisting Mitanni, and then switching to assisting Hatti and then assisting none. Ariba-Adad I for instance, used his alliance and vassal status to Karduniash with which to provide a veil of protection against Hatti, due to his Karduniash overlords having an alliance with Egypt (both seemingly agreeing to oppose the victor between Hatti and Mitanni). This veil however was very weak, as Assyria in the height of the Mitanni-Hatti conflicts, offers to ally Mitannni. Presumably, Assyria offered Mitanni assistance to fight Hatti. WE may imagine the excitement of Mitanni, a chance to gain revenge upon Hatti for its loss in the wars over Kizzuwatna and other lands west of the Euphrates.

Mitanni seems to have then, invigorated by Assyria, attacks the Hittites diplomatically. Previously, the Hittites had conquered Kizzuwata from the Mitanni, but had been unable to break the boundary of the euphrates. However, Suppiluliuma I informed the Mitanni, that should any Mitanni soldier crosses the Euphrates, that the Hittites will sack Washukanni. Assyria perhaps knowingly gives Mitanni false confidence, leads to the Mitanni begging the Hittites to press their attack upon them. Assyria then arrives upon the Mitanni and essentially demands submission and attacks them.... Leading to the Mitanni's war effort in both fronts to begin to break and the collapse of the Mitanni hegemony in the region.

Assyria under Ariba-Adad I fled the battlefield before the Hittites however and then sends an alliance offer to Egypt against Hatti. This was a masterful manuever, as Assyria was able to in a single movement, destroy Mitanni and then make Hatti seem to be the rising hegemon, thus uniting Karduniash and Egypt against Hatti. In fact, much of the Hittite issues derive to this masterstroke of Ariba-Adad I and Assur-Uballit I. Hatti became the enemy of Karduniash, Egypt and Elam feared the Hittites. Assyria effectively, turned attention to them, while permitting it to act freely. As, despite Assyrian pretext for war with Hatti, the Hittites could not commit to war with Assyria and gather the ire of Karduniash and Egypt or even Elam.

Karduniash then however responded angrily under Burnaburiash II, that the Assyrian vassals had no right to send envoys to Egypt. Nevertheless, Assur-Uballit I's, the successor of Ariba-Adad I, machinations seem to amount to little more than causing disunity in Karduniash. Presumably, this is my interpretation, that for fear of losing either Assyria or Egypt as allies against Hatti, Burnaburiash II decided to relent and married the first daughter of Assur-Uballit I. Assur-Uballit I, probably knew that this was a win-win; if the Kassite nobles reject his daughter and the heir to the throne, he could attack Karduniash with it being disunited. If they do not, he has an Adaside king on the throne!

Sure enough, the Karduniash slay the new Assyrian king and declare war on Assyria. Upon which the Karduniash learned a lesson, that Assyria was no longer the minor Akkadian in Mesopotamia... Assyria defeated the Karduniash and appointed Kurigalzu II. Assur-Uballit I was succeeded by Enlil-Nirari who in his early years, attempted to ally Egypt against the Hittites, but was stopped short when Kurigalzu II rebelled against Assyria with support from Elam.

Karduniash was famously able to defeat Enlil-Nirari in battle and then implemented a policy of containment against Assyria. Namely, in conjunction with Elamite support and a new series of Karduniash vassals in the zagros mountains, Karduniash would check Assyria. In fact, when Assyria attempted to rebel, Karduniash would invade from the south, whilst others invaded the north.

The strategy in theory should’ve ended Assyria. In fact, Assyria began to pay regular tribute to Karduniash. However, Assyria did not relent, even as a vassal. Adad-Nirari I was able to goad Nazi-Marrutash of Karduniash into a pitched battle. Wherein Assyria slew the Karduniash king, Nazi-Murrutash and made Karduniash a tributary.

Assyria then began again displaying its odd strategies. Attempting to ally and groom the Hittites in a coalition against Egypt during the reign of Adad-Nirari I. After sufficiently pushing the Hittites into war with Egypt, Shalmaneser I attacked the Mitanni vassal, conquering it while the Hittites were busy with Egypt. In the meantime, Shalmaneser I was succeeded by Tukulti-Ninurta who continued the work of his predecessors. Tukutli-Ninurta, changed tunes, Assyria prior had advocated alliance and friendship with Hatti against Egypt, but now readily demanded vassalage from Hatti and demanding deep concessions. The Hittites could no longer allow the Assyrians to do as they please, yet also, the Hittites had lost most of their advantages over Assyria, who had festered as a problem, while Hatti had only weakened since its conquest of Mitanni. Tulutli-Ninurta would move decisively, attacking the Hatti in Syria, destroying their army and forcing the fall of the Hittite kingdom around 50 years later.

It was in this moment of Assyrian height that then civil war after the death of Tukulti-Ninurta in 1197 BCE erupted, that Elam made its move. Elam invaded Karduniash conquering it after several campaigns beginning in the 1170s and around 1150 BCE. Then in 1149 BCE, Elam defeated the Assyrians and took Arbela, Nuzi and Arrapakha. Nevertheless, Assyria recovered under Assur-Resh-Ishie and Tiglath-Pileser I in alliance with Nebuchadnezzar I, the rebelling king of Isin, rapidly invaded Elam, sacking Susa and Anshan in one movement. Thus, Assyria, endured and emerged the 'victor' of the chessboard and reaped the benefits of the largest and most complete empire in human history in the Early Iron Age, up to that point.

A truly epic event and series of wars over 300 years. In my opinion, Assyria prevailed as it was the most consistent and the most efficient in terms of diplomatic maneuvering.
 
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Does any aside from @Falecius wish to explain their vote?

I picked Assyria because your timeline has me all ASSYRIA HYPE, but mostly because Duranki isn't going to complete itself. I feel like it gave the nation (or ruling class at least) a goal, something to strive towards, helping them maintain that consistent and thorough political agenda you mentioned above. I'd go Hittites as a close second due to their advanced diplomacy, oathmaking and legal system.
 
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I picked Assyria because your timeline has me all ASSYRIA HYPE, but mostly because Duranki isn't going to complete itself. I feel like it gave the nation (or ruling class at least) a goal, something to strive towards, helping them maintain that consistent and thorough political agenda you mentioned above. I'd go Hittites as a close second due to their advanced diplomacy, oathmaking and legal system.

This, I feel is the most 'meta' answer. Of all the powers present, Assyria presented the least tangible form of power, that being consistency and aggression. Most of the other realms lacked the framework for which to maintain consistent aggressive expansion, they all aside for Karduniash, lacked the cosmological will to conquer the known world. Likewise, Assyria, unlike any of the others, it would seem, did not trust and utilized every one of its partners or enemies for Assyrian expansionism.

However, one could argue, that Assyria did create a more chaotic and tragic empire. The Hittites for instance, had they managed to succeed in their gains and also withstood the Assyrian menace to their southeast, might have created an extremely stable and well managed realm. Precisely because, Hittite legal custom was by far the most advanced in the Bronze Age, resembling more something from Medieval Europe. In that it lists exhaustively long lines of duties and agreements, that are actually upheld. Thus, Hatti managed to make various often drastically different realms into its fold as integral parts and willing allies in the kingdom of Hatti. Assyria by contrast, would be very slow in developing anything like this, maintaining a model of simply draining resources, manpower and livelihoods from its subjects and thus creating constant rebellions.

It is also worth mentioning, that Hittite oath making transcended cultural taboos. Assyrian oath making came to be influenced by Hatti, but in later eras after Assyria adopted Hattian models, Assyria lacked the ability to truly implement this, as Assyria had too great of a bigotry frankly, to taboo cultural traits. Namely, Assyrian diplomacy even as late as 630 BCE, is almost unable to reckon the notion of a migratory group or of a divided anarchic state of people as being able to give submission. For instance, Assyrian armies demanded that oaths be given by a single person representing a region, they could not permit a multitude of oaths individually. If people resisted or failed to give these oaths or stipulated that there was no person to give the oath, Assyrian soldiers would proceed to interpret this as a series of sins and rebellions and proceed to eradicate or enslave the populace. The Hittite model meanwhile was more nuanced, making oaths with individual clans were kings did not exist and with chiefs of migratory groups. This permitted the Hittite state to more efficiently manage a diplomatic tone with even the most divergent peoples. Hittite integral realms also extended far beyond Anatolia, into Syria, Canaan and into the land of Sabaru and Shupria or even into the Caucasian hill country. The extent to which the Hittites had succeeded in bringing these realms under a firmly Hattian state of affairs, can be seen in the survival of the Hatti royal class in cities like Carchemish, two centuries after the fall of the Hittite main kingdom in Hatti.
 
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