AHC: with changing less than 20% have Jimmy Carter be a highly effective U.S. president.

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
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For example, during his first year in office, Pres. Carter directed that the presidential yacht be put up for auction. Good decision. People need to be confident that their tax dollars are being spent wisely.

Please give me a couple of other positives and/or possibilities. Thanks. :)
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
New York Times Editorial
‘ . . Candidate Carter was a fiery tax reformer. He pledged that if elected he would eliminate the complexities and inequities of the nation's income tax system, which he called “a disgrace to the human race.” Now the time has come. President Carter must end the disgrace. The post‐Watergate reformist spirit in Congress and the country offer him a rare opportunity to turn the decade‐old dreams of tax reformers into a reality. When the President finally announces his long‐awaited plan, perhaps later this month, we shall learn if Jimmy Carter will be remembered as the first serious tax reformer in the modern White House or as just another of the postwar Presidents who only talked tough. .’
What a golden opportunity!

If Carter had followed through with tax reform — and with a Democratic Congress helping to keep it simple — this most likely would have changed the fortune of the two parties for a generation, or more. And just maybe, improve the lives and prospects of individual American citizens.
 
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For example, during his first year in office, Pres. Carter directed that the presidential yacht be put up for auction. Good decision. People need to be confident that their tax dollars are being spent wisely.

Please give me a couple of other positives and/or possibilities. Thanks. :)

What does 20% mean? Have Carter call Congress into a special session in 1977 to address stagflation. Have routine meetings with Congressional leaders to reduce inflation and unemployment. Appoint Volcker to the Fed in 1978, not 1979. Listen to the State Department and don't allow the Shah into the U.S. for cancer treatment. Push harder for the ratification of the ERA and healthcare reform, which would probably butterfly away Kennedy's primary challenge.

If, by 1980, all this means that the economy is in recovery and there is no Iran Hostage Crisis then Carter has a shot at getting re-elected.
 

marktaha

Banned
New York Times Editorial

What a golden opportunity!

If Carter had followed through with tax reform — and with a Democratic Congress helping to keep it simple — this most likely would have changed the fortune of the two parties for a generation, or more. And just maybe, improve the lives and prospects of individual American citizens.
He had an overwhelming majority in Congress but they wouldn't agree to it.
 
If he had allowed the CIA to have the Iranian military do a coup before the Islamic revolution and he had played dirty with Ragan , namely leaking the fact that he was working with Joe McCarthy when he was head of the Screen Actors Guild when he was supposed to be defending members of the Screen Actors Guild from the communist witch-hunt
The Republicans would have lost their biggest issue to use against Carter along with having their candidates trustworthiness take a major hit
The long-term fixes to the economy I already put in place by Carter and all the new weapons systems that were introduced in the Reagan years started development under Carter or Ford and we're ready for production early in the Reagan Administration so Carter would have appeared to have been strong on defense
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
What does 20% mean? Have Carter call Congress into a special session in 1977 to address stagflation. Have routine meetings with Congressional leaders to reduce inflation and unemployment. Appoint Volcker to the Fed in 1978, not 1979. Listen to the State Department and don't allow the Shah into the U.S. for cancer treatment. Push harder for the ratification of the ERA and healthcare reform, which would probably butterfly away Kennedy's primary challenge.

If, by 1980, all this means that the economy is in recovery and there is no Iran Hostage Crisis then Carter has a shot at getting re-elected.
Has a shot at getting re-elected?? After he essentially runs the table.

Do you think your standards might be perhaps a tad bit too high?
 
Has a shot at getting re-elected?? After he essentially runs the table.

Do you think your standards might be perhaps a tad bit too high?
Let's not get too carried away. Carter can begin to turn the economy around, but it's unlikely it'll feel "fixed" by 1980. Keep in mind, the present is still going to feel not-great to voters who don't have OTL to compare it to. How far advanced will healthcare reform's infrastructure be by 1980? Will that go smoothly? And most tax bills take years of analysis before effects can be measured.

Meanwhile, that plus the ERA is going to get under the skin of the emerging Reagan coalition and could fire them up to an even greater extent than OTL. All the while, OTL liberal/left-leaning coalitions are either standing down or reorienting to new projects (potentially alienating projects).

I think you're right, I think Carter's the odds-on favorite. I would add that this is especially true if he doesn't try to keep the south on board. He did a lot not to alienate them for the general. And honestly he over-performed in the south IOTL, losing by smaller amounts there than elsewhere in the country (his ten closest losses were all southern or border states). But losing by 2% or 10% doesn't matter, so in hindsight he should've shored up his support elsewhere.

I'm also curious what 20% means, and would think an economic revamp, healthcare reform, constitutional amendment, and butterflying a big foreign policy failure must surely be pushing it.
 
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For example, during his first year in office, Pres. Carter directed that the presidential yacht be put up for auction. Good decision. People need to be confident that their tax dollars are being spent wisely.

Please give me a couple of other positives and/or possibilities. Thanks. :)
This is something that is actually considered to be a bad decision, and an example of why Carter had terrible relations with congress. Chris Matthews book "Hardball" actually discusses this as an example of what Carter did wrong in handling Washington and compares it to other presidents who didn't make these mistakes. If anyone would know, it would be Matthews, as he worked on both Carter's staff, and then was chief of staff for Speaker of the House Tip O'Niell.
 
Has a shot at getting re-elected?? After he essentially runs the table.

Do you think your standards might be perhaps a tad bit too high?

No. Carter lost in a landslide, ergo it would take massive changes to get him re-elected. I even think that a successful Operation Eagle Claw would not be enough, because by the debates Reagan can remind the American people of the bad economy. In that event Carter would only lose narrowly, but he'd still lose so you need to alter the course of the country's economic direction for him to win.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
No. Carter lost in a landslide, ergo it would take massive changes to get him re-elected.
Reagan got just under 51% in 1980. In fact, Reagan’s first chief-of-staff James Baker later said that it was not so much a mandate for Reagan, as an opportunity.

Carter got 41%, and yes, it was a stunning rebuke to a sitting president.

Most of the rest was John Anderson.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
Pres. Carter: “ . . I might add that last night the President of Mexico, my friend, Mr. Lopez Portillo, notified us that they were transferring large quantities of oil and natural gas to our country. And just a few minutes ago, I had a call from Governor Brown in California, saying that because of very strict conservation measures that had been initiated in California, even though they don't have a severe winter situation there, that 10 billion cubic feet of natural gas would be diverted from California to the eastern part of our country where the shortage exists. .”
Jimmy certainly comes across as a coalition builder.

This is the first bill he signed as president. The Emergency Natural Gas Act of 1977 which Carter signed at a ceremony slightly after 9:00 in the evening on Weds, Feb 2, 1977.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
He had an overwhelming majority in Congress but they wouldn't agree to it.
Tax reform is tough, because the Senators from oil-producing states want to keep the deletion allowance, etc, etc, so on and so forth. And in a very real sense, the members of the House and Senate are doing their job by representing their constituents.

Or put another way, it takes a lot to move from regional interest to national interest.

large960_blur-a19e67e1639f92e7d8e8a50c04d5607a.jpg

Behind Nixon to the left is V.P. Spiro Agnew and to his right is Speaker of the House Carl Albert.

If only Carl Albert had decided, most likely we’ll get a new Democratic President elected in 1976. He’ll need (or possibly, She) some help from a seasoned pro and also a little transition time for Tip O’Neill becomes the next Speaker.

As it was, Carl did not seek re-election in ‘76, and in addition to a new president, we also had a new Speaker of the House.
 
Reagan got just under 51% in 1980. In fact, Reagan’s first chief-of-staff James Baker later said that it was not so much a mandate for Reagan, as an opportunity.

Carter got 41%, and yes, it was a stunning rebuke to a sitting president.

Most of the rest was John Anderson.
Anderson's an interesting factor. Imagining a more successful Carter generally means a more liberal-appearing Carter (liberal in the American sense at the time). Does that mean a larger vote share for Anderson as more moderates feel less comfortable with Carter? Does it mean Reagan pushes left, as he sees an opening? Does that keep Anderson from jumping in, or at least take a bunch of votes from him?

Or can Carter be both successful and appear reasonable to centrists? Or does a successful liberal mean the zeitgeist shifts left, that mercurial voters who just want to be average (and also want to feel like winners) are more okay voting for a liberal than OTL 1980?

Answering yes or no to any of these questions is probably reasonable within the standard ah.com framework (i.e. not ASB). Lots of moving pieces in an election.
 
Tax reform is tough, because the Senators from oil-producing states want to keep the deletion allowance, etc, etc, so on and so forth. And in a very real sense, the members of the House and Senate are doing their job by representing their constituents.

Or put another way, it takes a lot to move from regional interest to national interest.

large960_blur-a19e67e1639f92e7d8e8a50c04d5607a.jpg

Behind Nixon to the left is V.P. Spiro Agnew and to his right is Speaker of the House Carl Albert.

If only Carl Albert had decided, most likely we’ll get a new Democratic President elected in 1976. He’ll need (or possibly, She) some help from a seasoned pro and also a little transition time for Tip O’Neill becomes the next Speaker.

As it was, Carl did not seek re-election in ‘76, and in addition to a new president, we also had a new Speaker of the House.
Carter's entire plan of dealing with congress was a disaster, from not having a chief of staff, to getting rid of the fluff that had been used to woo congressional leaders for decades (such as the yacht). It would appear that he believed he could treat the presidency similar to being governor (governors can often be more controlling over their legislatures), this was never going to work. To get Carter to have good relations with congress, you need more than just keeping Albert around as speaker, you'd have to change Carter's whole view of dealing with them going into his presidency. Thats the problem with running as an "outsider", if you win you eventually will have to work with the people you've been saying are the problem. If you're not conciliatory enough, of course this will cause some level of disfunction. Take Reagan as the opposite example, he campaigned against the government and as an outsider, but when he got to Washington he actually went out of his way to ingratiate himself with the "establishment".
 
Anderson's an interesting factor. Imagining a more successful Carter generally means a more liberal-appearing Carter (liberal in the American sense at the time). Does that mean a larger vote share for Anderson as more moderates feel less comfortable with Carter? Does it mean Reagan pushes left, as he sees an opening? Does that keep Anderson from jumping in, or at least take a bunch of votes from him?

Or can Carter be both successful and appear reasonable to centrists? Or does a successful liberal mean the zeitgeist shifts left, that mercurial voters who just want to be average (and also want to feel like winners) are more okay voting for a liberal than OTL 1980?

Answering yes or no to any of these questions is probably reasonable within the standard ah.com framework (i.e. not ASB). Lots of moving pieces in an election.
It could be argued that a more liberal Carter would make Anderson less likely to run 3rd party (and thus Reagan's chances stay pretty strong), but it could also be argued that a more liberal Carter actually takes votes away from Anderson if he does run. If you look at where Anderson won the most votes, it was often in liberal areas where he seemed to be taking votes away from Carter instead of Reagan. For example if you look at Massachusetts, Reagan's vote share was pretty much in line for a normal Republican at the time, it was Carter's that was much lower. I think its reasonable to assume that a large portion of Anderson's voters were actually liberals instead of moderate, and that he would get less votes as Carter moved left, not more. This is backed up by the info we have from exit polling, where Anderson got 11% among self identified liberals, and 8% among moderates.
 
It could be argued that a more liberal Carter would make Anderson less likely to run 3rd party (and thus Reagan's chances stay pretty strong), but it could also be argued that a more liberal Carter actually takes votes away from Anderson if he does run. If you look at where Anderson won the most votes, it was often in liberal areas where he seemed to be taking votes away from Carter instead of Reagan. For example if you look at Massachusetts, Reagan's vote share was pretty much in line for a normal Republican at the time, it was Carter's that was much lower. I think its reasonable to assume that a large portion of Anderson's voters were actually liberals instead of moderate, and that he would get less votes as Carter moved left, not more. This is backed up by the info we have from exit polling, where Anderson got 11% among self identified liberals, and 8% among moderates.
Absolutely reasonable. Though even taking 100% of Anderson’s vote doesn’t get Carter past Reagan (and 100% is unlikely).

Edit: By my rough calculations, Carter ends on 207 if you give him Anderson’s tally and change nothing else, just for laughs.
 
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marathag

Banned
Have 20% of the 'Georgia Mafia" die in a plane crash, including Hamilton Jordon
Fault was Air Traffic Controllers, which allows the just arrived Carter to get tough with PATCO who were griping about their upcoming 1978 contract renewal, _and_ improve the equipment, that was a valid concern

So Peanut gets to act tough on an unpopular Union before the Gipper, and improve air safety, and has to rely on DC insiders for the rest of his term.
 

GeographyDude

Gone Fishin'
If he had allowed the CIA to have the Iranian military do a coup before the Islamic revolution . . .
You’ve just re-invented the logic of the Cold War!

All through the 1950s, ‘60s, ‘70s, I think all the way to 1991, we preferred a dictatorship to the supposed black hole of communism. And furthermore, we seemed to feel that a genuine democracy was too risky because the people might “go communist” at some point. And absolutely, we can take this same logic and place it on top of Islamic parts of the world.

Other possibilities include:

Carter does with the Shah of Iran what Reagan did with Marcos of the Philippines which is to tell him, hey, you can come to the U.S. as long as you leave relatively early and don’t hold till the bitter end.​

Another possibility, when the Shah had in fact gone to Mexico is just to send the medical equipment to Mexico.​

By the way, I kind of like competing, dancing possibilities in a single thread. :)
 
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