AHC/WI: The fates of Germany and Japan post-WW2 are switched

The fates of Germany and Japan after WW2 share lots of similarities – both were ruled by brutal regimes, both were were defeated and occupied by their enemies, both were utterly destroyed, only to rebuild afterward and turn into stable democracies and economic powerhouses.

But there are some significant differences as well – Germany was divided, Japan was not; Germany did lose lots of territory, while the Japanese homeland was left intact for the most part; Germany was occupied by four different powers, while Japan was effectively only occupied by the Americans. Germany also ended up with pretty good relations with all its neighbors and former enemies, while the same can‘t be said in regard to Japan and its often rocky relations with China and both Koreas. Germany also became socially fairly liberal, like all western countries, while Japan is in many ways much more conservative, be it in terms of immigration (which is basically non-existent), female representation (Japan has far less female members of parliament than any other democratic country, and even less than most non-democratic countries), or in the way Japan deals with its past (there isn‘t really the same kind of national consensus in Japan in regards to its actions during WW2 like in Germany). On the other hand, Japan‘s constitution contains the famous Article 9, prohibiting Japan from making war entirely (though there have been some efforts to ‚soften’ this a bit), while Germany actually has taken part in military interventions since WW2.

But is there a way to switch their post-war fates around? In other words, Germany is still defeated and occupied, but only by the western powers, and retains its territorial integrity and unity. Japan on the other hand gets divided into occupation zones, including a Soviet zone, which becomes a seperate, communist puppet state. Culturally, Germany also remains much more conservative than OTL, with no significant immigration, and a strong revisionist streak among its political and intellectual class in regard to WW2, that lasts to this day (including whitewashing and even honoring of some war criminals), while its relations to Poland and Russia are much more difficult because of this. Japan on the other hand openly breaks with its millitarist past, and denial of Japanese war crimes is outlawed, while its relations with China and the Koreas are much better. Japan also is more open to immigration than OTL. On the other hand, Germany’s constitution contains an equivalent to Japan’s Article 9, prohibiting German involvement in foreign interventions for the most part. Bonus points if Japan abolishes the monarchy after the war, while it is restored in Germany.

Is there a plausible way to achive this, without completely derailing WW2 from the beginning? Maybe if Hitler is successfully assassinated in 1944, and the military junta eventually surrenders to the western Allies before the Soviets are able to occupy any part of Germany? And Japan then decides to use biological weapons against the US coast (there was a TL about this some time ago, i believe), thus making Japan look even more ‚evil‘ in the eyes of the Allies?

Are there other ways to do this? How does the Cold War change with a bigger, united Germany in Europe, but a divided Japan in Asia?
 
You gotta understand a arge portion of the reason they ended up like they ended up is because they are half the globe apart from eachother. They are very different countries, one being an island, the other surrounded by other countries.

Simplest way to look at it is have the Soviet do worse in Europe causing the Allies to take Berlin. But at the same time have them do better in the Pacific and invade the Home Islands of Japan at the same time as the Americans and their allies(meaning the uS doing worse as well, needed aid from the British). But thats impossible to imagine, as if the Soviets would focus on gathering ships to invade Japan whilst giving up on the idea of reaching Berlin and take out Hitler.

For germany is possible to have this ending, like Japan did OTL. But having Japan end up like Germany is a lot harder.

As for the monarchy in Germany... I don't think there was anyone left to reclaim it?
 
The dismemberment of Germany was the sine qua non of the Allied cause. They had all been dragged through an even worse war than the first one the militarized German state had started (in their minds, anyway) and were not going to leave even the slightest possibility that it could happen again. The only question was how punitive the Allies were going to be towards the fallen Reich.

As for Japan, well it was the Americans who did all the heavy lifting on that one with Stalin as Johnny-Come-Lately in the final month of the war. Even if the Pacific War dragged on long enough to allow the Soviets to do more than just crush the Kwangtung Army in Manchuria they really don't have the logistical ability to land more than a token force on Hokkaido. And Truman isn't FDR, he's not going to let Stalin have his way and turn a part of Japan red just because they have a few commissars proclaiming a People's Republic on behalf of a puppet Japanese communist party. The Soviets simply can't project power in Japan the way the US can with its navy.

As for the monarchy in Germany... I don't think there was anyone left to reclaim it?

Crown Prince Wilhelm was still alive in 1945 but nobody wanted a return to the monarchy, WWI was still on people's minds and German militarism was still tied to the Junker class.
 

BigBlueBox

Banned
There is no possible scenario in which the Soviet Union is too weak to take a slice of Germany but strong enough to take a chunk of Japan. The only plausible way that the Soviets could occupy a part of Japan but not any of Germany is if Barbarossa never happens and the Soviets intervene against the Japanese earlier as a result.
 
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