Grand power is not that hard. Sweden could certainly be a 2nd tier grand power like Italy.
My POD is rather easy too.
Karl XII decides to ignore the territorial integrity of the Holy Roman Empire in 1703 and marches on Saxony. Ensuring England and the Netherlands that he is their friend and only after punishing Saxony, he puts the Emperor befora fait accompli. He did the same thing 1706 and could have done it in 1703.
August will be forced to seek peace and the Swedish garrisons in its German provinces can be used to enforce that peace until the war is over (ie Russia has been defeated). OTL they marched to Saxony in 1707 to join the main army.
When Sweden can march on Russia in 1704, the Russian army has only captured Nöteborg (a medieval fortress) and have not gained the experiences of the various OTL campaigns.
If Peter is captured or placed in a situation where his position is untenable, he migth very well agree to peace terms - the conservative opposition to his rule is such that he cannot remain away for too long.
Sweden gains Karelia, Kola and Archangelsk from Russia and holds Novgorod and Pskov as a guarantee for Russian war damages to an extent of 5 million thaler.
Sweden gains Polish Livonia and Courland from Poland-Lithuania and holds Danzig for war reparations.
At this point, Sweden could introduce indelningsverk in Estonia and Scania to expand the army. Tolls from Archangelsk will improve the economy further, and keeping the tolls from the Weser, Düna/Daguva and Neva rivers will make the situation far, far better than OTL.
Sweden and Finland had a total population of almost 2 million - and this is not counting Estonia, Livonia, Wismar, Bremen, Swedish Pommerania and Ingria. At the same time Prussia had a population of about 1,5 million. With the added territory, Sweden 1710 would be about 3 million in total.
If we add Prussia being smacked down in the War of Austrian succession and not gaining Silesia (Sweden could be the country to smack it down, as a continued ally of Britain and the Netherlands) and Poland-Lithuania, with a Swedish-supported King not being dismantled completely, the primary Powers in Germany would be Austria and Sweden - and neither wants to see Prussia grow stronger. Austria lack the strength to unite Germany, and neither Sweden nor France wants to see a unified Germany.
Peter the Great might attack the Crimean Tatars or the Ottoman Empire after his failure against Sweden. If we get an analogy ot Prut 1711, he might actually be captured and unable to bribe his way out. A second defeat might be too much, and he might be dethroned in favour of his lazy and conservative son. Russia will thus be stunted and remain a landlocked European nation, which would help both Poland-Lithuania and the Ottoman Empire, which means Prussia has a harder time rising to power in Germany.
So, making Sweden remain a grand power in the 18th Century is not that hard - back then it was more about using your population and an effective administration and army than money or population, as both Prussia and Sweden showed.
The 19th century will be harder though - acquiring Norway and integrating it fully when Denmark tries a revanchist war (perhaps in the War of Austrian succession) will help, as will keeping Estonia, Livonia, Ingria, Kexholm and Bremen. Sweden can always expand its armies by recruiting German soldiers.
Sweden might lose its German provinces to a Napoleon type French invasion though, but still be considered a grand power, even if second tier, by the 1900s.
My POD is rather easy too.
Karl XII decides to ignore the territorial integrity of the Holy Roman Empire in 1703 and marches on Saxony. Ensuring England and the Netherlands that he is their friend and only after punishing Saxony, he puts the Emperor befora fait accompli. He did the same thing 1706 and could have done it in 1703.
August will be forced to seek peace and the Swedish garrisons in its German provinces can be used to enforce that peace until the war is over (ie Russia has been defeated). OTL they marched to Saxony in 1707 to join the main army.
When Sweden can march on Russia in 1704, the Russian army has only captured Nöteborg (a medieval fortress) and have not gained the experiences of the various OTL campaigns.
If Peter is captured or placed in a situation where his position is untenable, he migth very well agree to peace terms - the conservative opposition to his rule is such that he cannot remain away for too long.
Sweden gains Karelia, Kola and Archangelsk from Russia and holds Novgorod and Pskov as a guarantee for Russian war damages to an extent of 5 million thaler.
Sweden gains Polish Livonia and Courland from Poland-Lithuania and holds Danzig for war reparations.
At this point, Sweden could introduce indelningsverk in Estonia and Scania to expand the army. Tolls from Archangelsk will improve the economy further, and keeping the tolls from the Weser, Düna/Daguva and Neva rivers will make the situation far, far better than OTL.
Sweden and Finland had a total population of almost 2 million - and this is not counting Estonia, Livonia, Wismar, Bremen, Swedish Pommerania and Ingria. At the same time Prussia had a population of about 1,5 million. With the added territory, Sweden 1710 would be about 3 million in total.
If we add Prussia being smacked down in the War of Austrian succession and not gaining Silesia (Sweden could be the country to smack it down, as a continued ally of Britain and the Netherlands) and Poland-Lithuania, with a Swedish-supported King not being dismantled completely, the primary Powers in Germany would be Austria and Sweden - and neither wants to see Prussia grow stronger. Austria lack the strength to unite Germany, and neither Sweden nor France wants to see a unified Germany.
Peter the Great might attack the Crimean Tatars or the Ottoman Empire after his failure against Sweden. If we get an analogy ot Prut 1711, he might actually be captured and unable to bribe his way out. A second defeat might be too much, and he might be dethroned in favour of his lazy and conservative son. Russia will thus be stunted and remain a landlocked European nation, which would help both Poland-Lithuania and the Ottoman Empire, which means Prussia has a harder time rising to power in Germany.
So, making Sweden remain a grand power in the 18th Century is not that hard - back then it was more about using your population and an effective administration and army than money or population, as both Prussia and Sweden showed.
The 19th century will be harder though - acquiring Norway and integrating it fully when Denmark tries a revanchist war (perhaps in the War of Austrian succession) will help, as will keeping Estonia, Livonia, Ingria, Kexholm and Bremen. Sweden can always expand its armies by recruiting German soldiers.
Sweden might lose its German provinces to a Napoleon type French invasion though, but still be considered a grand power, even if second tier, by the 1900s.
