AHC/WI: Suharto rules Indonesia for life

[ajdb0614]

I've been wondering about the scenario for awhile. What could've happened or been done prior to 1998 to prevent Suharto's fall in May of that year? Let's say he still lives until near the date of his OTL death, would he have retired some time in the 2000s?

Even handwaving any attempts to oust him ("close call every time") and for him to retire ("he changes his mind and decides to continue ruling"), what would this alternate Indonesia look like in this different 2018 had Suharto stayed on for another decade?

 

[Cook]

A key change necessary for Suharto to have survived would be Indonesia not hosting the series of ASEAN meetings in the second half of 1996; these focused international media attention on Indonesia and prevented Suharto from cracking down on the initial street protests by Megawati’s supporters; had they been nipped in the bud, they would never have gained the momentum that they did.

The other essential item for Suharto’s regime to survive is obviously that the fuel subsidy cannot be slashed in May 1997; this resulted in the price of fuel jumping overnight by 70% and triggered massive street protests and outright rioting across much of the archipelago, which resulted in the collapse of investor confidence, a rapid flight of capital and the collapse of the Indonesian Rupiah, and that brought down Suharto.

The most immediately obvious change would be that there would not be an independent East Timor. Holding the independence referendum was a spur of the moment decision made by Suharto’s successor B. J. Habibie, prompted by Australian Prime Minister John Howard’s suggestion in a meeting that, in order to diffuse international criticism of Indonesia’s often brutal governing of the half-island province, that it should be granted autonomy. Habibie had acted without thinking through the consequences, which was how he made all decisions. Suharto would never have granted a vote on independence, and probably wouldn’t have considered autonomy either.

With Suharto and his family still in control of the country, Indonesia’s economy would certainly be far worse off than it is now; Indonesia since the 1997 East Asian Economic Crisis has been one of the standout performers, with economic growth almost continuously above 4% per annum; a rate that if continued will see Indonesia’s economy become the world’s fourth largest by 2045. Given the stifling effect that the Suharto kleptocracy had on growth, that certainly would not be the case if his regime had continued.​

 

[GSD310]

Assuming Soeharto survives May 1998 and stays in power or he manages to somehow limit the damage of the Asian Financial Crisis or both, Indonesia’s due for a political crisis in July 1999.

If Soeharto’s health is as OTL, he’s due for a stroke during that month. This is the stroke that kept him out of being tried for corruption charges because he is deemed to be physically and mentally unfit.

https://www.google.co.id/amp/s/apnews.com/amp/fc3a11fdb9cbe8fdfe520dc98ed524f5

I’m going to elaborate further what I think will happen just as soon as I get home.

 

[GSD310]

To answer the original poll, I picked the power vacuum option. But I would argue that the power vacuum would not need to wait until Soeharto died. It would begin to form the moment Soeharto got a stroke. You're going to get a situation where:

-Soeharto's children and hardcore supporters will try to convince the nation and the world that Soeharto was still fine.
-If Soeharto manages some form of communication would his followers still follow him or would they not listen and use the stroke as an excuse to gently ease him out.
-Vice President Habibie (if not his supporters) would argue that Soeharto is incapacitated because incapacity, whether temporary or permanent, would make him either Acting President or President.
-The military debating whether they should make a push for Soeharto's removal or stick with the status quo because they can't stomach Habibie or maybe go for broke with a coup?
-And that's just those three groups. There's going to be other groups deciding what moves would be best for them.

Legally/constitutionally speaking, if the President is permanently incapacitated -death, resignation, or inability to conduct responsibilities (an argument could be made for his stroke)- he is succeeded by the Vice President. If temporarily incapacitated, he has the obligation to name an Acting President [1]. But there's no mechanism to determine which type of incapacity the President has unless he has died or has resigned so I can see this whole "incapacity" thing being heavily politicized. I can also see it dragging out for months and doing damage to the economy.

[1]This document is in Indonesian but it is a 1973 resolution by the People's Consultative Assembly (MPR) regarding situations of Presidential/Vice Presidential Incapacity. The MPR being the 1,000 strong electoral college which meets once every 5 years to elect the President and Vice President in Indonesia.
http://www.tatanusa.co.id/tapmpr/73TAPMPRS-VII.pdf

 

[walmart]

Would Suharto have set up one of his sons as his successor

 

[GSD310]

Would Suharto have set up one of his sons as his successor

Most likely candidate from Soeharto’s family is his eldest daughter Tutut who by 1998 is in cabinet as Minister of Social Affairs.

Actually, in a political crisis involving Soeharto’s incapacity there is a possible situation where she could be in line to succeed.

In that resolution regarding incapacity, it says that if it’s the Vice President who is incapacitated (read:if Soeharto or his supporters mobilizes enough support from around his bed to remove VP Habibie) there are some options available to him:

1) He can declare himself temporarily incapacitated and, because the vice presidency is vacant, would be required to name a minister as acting president . At this point either Tutut or Minister of Defense and Security/Commander ABRI Wiranto would be prime candidates.

2) He can ask the MPR to go into session to elect a new Vice President.

But there are variables involved. With option 1, Soeharto might get support for the removal of Habibie but the sustainability of the support would depend on who he wants to name as acting president.

With option 2, given that Soeharto would be bedridden, there’s a chance that things are taken out of Soeharto’s hands and certain members of the political elite would try to maneuver themselves into the vice presidency and be in a position to succeed Soeharto.

At the very least, whoever’s the new VP has a good chance to be at least named Acting President because it would be difficult and extremely stretch credibility if an argument is made that Soeharto is not at the very least temporarily incapacitated (In OTL the stroke causes him to lose clear speech and made him very emotionally unstable).