AHC/WI: Successful Coalition of the Left in 1932?

[Dr.Kafka]

I am generally unfamiliar with French politics during the 20th century. Is it possible for the Coalition of the Left to be successful in 1932? It appears as if the Radicals were drifting to the right, which ultimately made that impossible. Can that be prevented?

If they were successful, how would this affect the rest of Europe? I cannot remember the politician's name, but there was one Austrian who claimed that if it were not for the fact that France had been distracted by the riots of February 1934, Dolfuss would not have attempted to suppress the Social Democrats. What is the likelihood that the Coalition of the Left would support the Social Democrats in Austria with material aid?

 

[Kowita]

I'm unfamiliar with French politics during the 20th century too, but this looks interest so bump!

 

[Dr.Kafka]

Just to spark some discussion (and bump the thread), I think I'd also like to ask the following question: what exactly caused France to go through five prime ministers in a little more than a year?

 

[Reydan]

I think, realistically, you need quite a remarkable, and early, POD to really get to the roots of this issue. Basically what happened in France in the interwar period was a division on the left over what the "acceptable" limits of socialism/radicalism were. Most parties were agreed that any Cartel des Gauches would not assume a Communist flavour, but beyond that there was deep division over economic policy.

In many ways the division of the French left in the period is about the aftershocks of the Paris Commune - one of the reasons the Radicals bumbled around the issue of Female Suffrage, for instance, was that some moderates in their ranks were concerned that coming out in favour of it would paint them as radical Communards (given the Commune's support of female rights). Likewise, anything that looked too militant or radical made the moderate elements of any left-wing coalition very jittery indeed.

I don't think this is an impossible AHC though - just difficult. Unless you want a 19th century POD (which probably butterflies the situation you are talking about completely) you need, I think, a rallying point around which the left can remind itself what unites it rather than what divides it.

For the French left in the early 1930s this is a couple of issues: a developing notion of anti-fascism, a vague desire to promote industrial harmony and 'protect workers' but without too much specificity, anti-clericalism, and above all an external threat that it can rally around. Just look at Blum's Popular Front in 1936 - although it collapsed in 1938 over the Spanish Civil War it managed an electoral breakthrough as a result of the left fearing the chaos of 1932-4 had been a fascist conspiracy to overthrow the Republic.

A couple of ideas:

*Have a small neighboring nation descend into chaos. Spain is a possibility, but also Belgium/Netherlands or Switzerland. 1932 is very different to 1936 and standing up for a Republican Government abroad is an ideological issue the left in France can broadly get behind (particularly if, like in SCW, said Government is endorsed by Moscow) but also the idea of regional security is a boon and distraction when dealing with the right in France.

*Alternately have a serious war scare happen before the 1932 election and the right-wing fumble the response. Pacifism was a major force on the French left. Note, though, that this cannot be a war scare which might pit French interests against Soviet ones as this would fracture, rather than unite, the left.

*Have some of the various ultra-right groups actually attempt an abortive coup sometime between 1932 and 1933 after the Cartel wins the election. OTL 1934 came close, but that was a spontaneous affair not a planned coup involving disgruntled soldiers. If something like the SCW general's plot or the Japanese 2-26 incident happens in France (eminently possible) then the left will be able to rally in indignation and support of the Government and the Republic. A bloody and unsuccessful coup that is quickly stomped out is a very different experience to the February riots of 1934 that brought Dalladier and the Cartel down OTL.

Just to spark some discussion (and bump the thread), I think I'd also like to ask the following question: what exactly caused France to go through five prime ministers in a little more than a year?

Just a note - this wasn't actually that unusual. Its to do with the unstable "Hollow Classes" cabinets of the interwar era. It plagued the right too.

 

[Dr.Kafka]

Snip.

Thank you for the well written response! That certainly explains a lost for me.

*Have some of the various ultra-right groups actually attempt an abortive coup sometime between 1932 and 1933 after the Cartel wins the election. OTL 1934 came close, but that was a spontaneous affair not a planned coup involving disgruntled soldiers. If something like the SCW general's plot or the Japanese 2-26 incident happens in France (eminently possible) then the left will be able to rally in indignation and support of the Government and the Republic. A bloody and unsuccessful coup that is quickly stomped out is a very different experience to the February riots of 1934 that brought Dalladier and the Cartel down OTL.

So I've been looking at this the wrong way, I guess. I was trying to prevent the February riots by making France more stable, but your proposal seems much more reasonable.

In the aftermath of such a failed coup attempt, do you think the government's foreign policy would be similar to that of the Front Populair government? I'm trying to figure out how this might affect other European countries. I think that the Austrian Civil War would be delayed (or potentially prevented) if the February riots were prevented or if they occurred even a few weeks earlier.

 

[Reydan]

Thank you for the well written response! That certainly explains a lost for me.

So I've been looking at this the wrong way, I guess. I was trying to prevent the February riots by making France more stable, but your proposal seems much more reasonable.

In the aftermath of such a failed coup attempt, do you think the government's foreign policy would be similar to that of the Front Populair government? I'm trying to figure out how this might affect other European countries. I think that the Austrian Civil War would be delayed (or potentially prevented) if the February riots were prevented or if they occurred even a few weeks earlier.

You are welcome. Happy to help.

I think preventing the February Riots is a good possibility, but in my mind that probably would only draw out the Cartel's death throws. Mass unrest in the streets proved to the French people at the time that the left was too disorganised and unpopular to form a solid government and hence they were voted out.

What you need is a failed coup attempt from within the military - a minor faction of reactionaries instead of a mass demonstration of discontent. Think something like the Kapp Putsch or the 2-26 incident. A small faction, led by an older commander, rise up but are essentially put down by popular action, government resistance, and the passivity of the populace at large. Over in a day or two with minimal bloodshed.

What this gives the left, unlike just forestalling the Feb Days, is an enemy to vilify and rally against.

As for foreign policy your guess is as good as anyone's. It partly depends who ends up Prime Minister - Blum was more radical in terms of interventionism than Dalladier.

My guess is that Hitler would seize upon the chaos to reoccupy the Rhineland and succeed. This would probably leave a French government more unified and suspicious of fascism but also more left leaning and probably a little more inclined to deal with Stalin than OTL. Whether they intervene in Austria/Spain [if that still happens]/ etc is very much a matter of chance I think.

Would be an interesting timeline.