How could Sega survive in the console market and not go bankrupt before going third party, and furthermore, what do you think Sega (and the gaming industry in general) would look like today?
My best guess as to how Sega could still exist as a console manufacturer today is if they don't fumble the Sega Saturn, which for its bad reputation actually was a good console for all intents and purposes (especially for Japanese gamers), but the surprise launch killed the distribution in the west. If they launched it at a better time with more preparation, and had parity with the Japanese market by getting all (or at least most) of the MANY Japan-only games it had, the Saturn would be an all time classic. Then they could've rode that momentum with the Dreamcast, which also would've helped that they wouldn't have to contend with the previous failures hurting their bottom line. From there, had this version of the Dreamcast been a success, they could continue further and remain competitive. Of course, this assumes nothing else goes wrong.
Imagine it's 2024 and Sega has their newest console out called the Astra, or the Mercury, or the Origin, or... whatever they would've named it that would've fit their brand. Their first party mascot as always is Sonic the Hedgehog, whose exclusive games would be a major draw for the Sega consoles. Its other notable first party titles include Yakuza, Bayonetta, Valkyria Chronicles, Virtua Fighter, and more. They also acquired Atlus, who operates with a degree of autonomy, but makes games exclusive to the Sega console like Persona. They've also probably acquired a number of other games along the way, ones that don't exist in OTL, likely western games to appeal to America and Europe, or maybe even more Japanese developers.
This butterflies away some other things. For one, it means that Sonic most likely doesn't appear as a guest character in Super Smash Bros. unless if they manage to make a deal for Ultimate like Microsoft did for Banjo-Kazooie and Steve. But that would still mean he wouldn't be in SSBB or SSB4, which is a big omission (not that people in TTL would know it). If he debuted in SSBU, it would be an earth-shattering reveal to be sure.
This also probably butterflies away a lot of the third-rate Sonic games that exist in OTL, because they would have the funds and the need to deliver better Sonic games than what we got. For Sonic's huge fanbase, he's gotten away with more crappy games than any other franchise could probably get away with. Likewise, this butterflies away games like Yakuza as a PlayStation game, or Bayonetta, Valkyria Chronicles or Virtua Fighter as third party games, as they would be first party games. Perhaps others like Phantasy Star Online, Shining Force, Guardian Heroes and Night Into Dreams would still exist today (as would Virtua Fighter for that matter...).
I think Microsoft would still enter the console market with the Xbox, as that was already in the cards since the late '90s even though they helped with the Dreamcast. But what changes is that the console market having four instead of three makes it far more competitive and saturated. Without Sega contributing to the other consoles, and having a major base of its own, that means that its more expensive to collect all the games that some collectors like to do. This would create an overflow of content, which is both great and not so great in various ways.
Is there anything else to keep mind, and how do you think Sega could've survived in the console market?
My best guess as to how Sega could still exist as a console manufacturer today is if they don't fumble the Sega Saturn, which for its bad reputation actually was a good console for all intents and purposes (especially for Japanese gamers), but the surprise launch killed the distribution in the west. If they launched it at a better time with more preparation, and had parity with the Japanese market by getting all (or at least most) of the MANY Japan-only games it had, the Saturn would be an all time classic. Then they could've rode that momentum with the Dreamcast, which also would've helped that they wouldn't have to contend with the previous failures hurting their bottom line. From there, had this version of the Dreamcast been a success, they could continue further and remain competitive. Of course, this assumes nothing else goes wrong.
Imagine it's 2024 and Sega has their newest console out called the Astra, or the Mercury, or the Origin, or... whatever they would've named it that would've fit their brand. Their first party mascot as always is Sonic the Hedgehog, whose exclusive games would be a major draw for the Sega consoles. Its other notable first party titles include Yakuza, Bayonetta, Valkyria Chronicles, Virtua Fighter, and more. They also acquired Atlus, who operates with a degree of autonomy, but makes games exclusive to the Sega console like Persona. They've also probably acquired a number of other games along the way, ones that don't exist in OTL, likely western games to appeal to America and Europe, or maybe even more Japanese developers.
This butterflies away some other things. For one, it means that Sonic most likely doesn't appear as a guest character in Super Smash Bros. unless if they manage to make a deal for Ultimate like Microsoft did for Banjo-Kazooie and Steve. But that would still mean he wouldn't be in SSBB or SSB4, which is a big omission (not that people in TTL would know it). If he debuted in SSBU, it would be an earth-shattering reveal to be sure.
This also probably butterflies away a lot of the third-rate Sonic games that exist in OTL, because they would have the funds and the need to deliver better Sonic games than what we got. For Sonic's huge fanbase, he's gotten away with more crappy games than any other franchise could probably get away with. Likewise, this butterflies away games like Yakuza as a PlayStation game, or Bayonetta, Valkyria Chronicles or Virtua Fighter as third party games, as they would be first party games. Perhaps others like Phantasy Star Online, Shining Force, Guardian Heroes and Night Into Dreams would still exist today (as would Virtua Fighter for that matter...).
I think Microsoft would still enter the console market with the Xbox, as that was already in the cards since the late '90s even though they helped with the Dreamcast. But what changes is that the console market having four instead of three makes it far more competitive and saturated. Without Sega contributing to the other consoles, and having a major base of its own, that means that its more expensive to collect all the games that some collectors like to do. This would create an overflow of content, which is both great and not so great in various ways.
Is there anything else to keep mind, and how do you think Sega could've survived in the console market?