How could Judge Edward Bates have become President?
It seems to me that there are three great opportunities.
Firstly, if Bates can continue his rise in state politics by defeating Thomas Hart Benton in the Senate election of 1836, he can become a top player in the highly chaotic world of 1830s Whig politics, with the potential for the nomination as a Clay substitute if the man himself is unpalatable.
Secondly, if he can parley his much-admired speech at the River and Harbor Convention of 1847 into the Vice-Presidential nomination in 1848, and the Whigs are successful, Bates has a reasonable chance of becoming President due to the death of the incumbent. Additionally, if he is Veep, he may be the nominee in 1852, and given butterflies, a possibly successful one.
Thirdly, of course, he was in contention at the Republican Convention in 1860, and could win, if Seward doesn't and Lincoln is less able to unite the opposition. Given Democratic implosion, he has pretty good odds of winning the election.
Which is more likely to happen, and what would have to diverge specifically in each case? How would he have been?
If he wins in 1860, how would he have handled the war?
It seems to me that there are three great opportunities.
Firstly, if Bates can continue his rise in state politics by defeating Thomas Hart Benton in the Senate election of 1836, he can become a top player in the highly chaotic world of 1830s Whig politics, with the potential for the nomination as a Clay substitute if the man himself is unpalatable.
Secondly, if he can parley his much-admired speech at the River and Harbor Convention of 1847 into the Vice-Presidential nomination in 1848, and the Whigs are successful, Bates has a reasonable chance of becoming President due to the death of the incumbent. Additionally, if he is Veep, he may be the nominee in 1852, and given butterflies, a possibly successful one.
Thirdly, of course, he was in contention at the Republican Convention in 1860, and could win, if Seward doesn't and Lincoln is less able to unite the opposition. Given Democratic implosion, he has pretty good odds of winning the election.
Which is more likely to happen, and what would have to diverge specifically in each case? How would he have been?
If he wins in 1860, how would he have handled the war?
