AHC/WI/PC: The Scramble For China Hypothetical

[HongCanucker]

My history teacher is really knowledgable in Chinese history, and he has stated that were it not for World War I, China would have become the next Africa - basically, China would have been carved up into spheres of influence like the Dark Continent was by the European powers, only this time Japan and possibly the United States would have jumped in as well. Does anyone know if this would or could have happened? How might the different regions of China be organized, and to whom would they go? How would all of this happen? And afterwards, what then?

Mind you, I'm not studying this particular area of Chinese history in depth just yet - I'm still studying the Taiping Rebellion, Boxer Rebellion and late Qing reform - but my teacher has mentioned this, so I want to know what the board thinks.

 

[LordTerra]

This could happen with the collapse of the Qing dynasty, leaving China in chaos and civil war, like after WW1 were China divided itself.

Japan would of pulled in Manchuria, the UK would of pulled the south areas into their influence but i am not sure about the rest of the powers.

 

[Everybody0523]

Would probably be easier and just as effective just to influence warlords. No point directly annexing and trying to administer vast swaths of territory (beyond the coastline), like in Africa.

 

[HongCanucker]

This could happen with the collapse of the Qing dynasty, leaving China in chaos and civil war, like after WW1 were China divided itself.

Japan would of pulled in Manchuria, the UK would of pulled the south areas into their influence but i am not sure about the rest of the powers.

France had a sizeable sphere of influence recognized by the Qing in the south, consisting of Yunnan, Guangxi, Hainan Island and parts of Guangdong. I think this has the potential to lead to another colonial crisis and might lead to a second Berlin Conference to decide once and for all how China gets divided among the powers.

Anyone have any ideas how the United States might get a piece of the pie here, and which one?

 

[HongCanucker]

Would probably be easier and just as effective just to influence warlords. No point directly annexing and trying to administer vast swaths of territory (beyond the coastline), like in Africa.

The Japanese did sponsor Zhang Zuolin and his Fengtian Clique for a time, and other European powers had shown sympathies towards some of the other warlord cliques. With more European interest in the region, could other warlord factions, even the KMT, fall into such spheres of influence?

 

[Anaxagoras]

Would probably be easier and just as effective just to influence warlords. No point directly annexing and trying to administer vast swaths of territory (beyond the coastline), like in Africa.

That's pretty much how India was carved up. It was under de facto British rule long before it became official. So I think an India-like scenario is more likely than a Scramble for Africa scenario.

 

[Karelian]

The foreign control of early 20th century China was both extensive and elusive - in the one hand Chinese markets and especially tolls and customs were firmly in control of foreign powers before the First World War.

And on the other hand majority of the Chinese population still lived their lives like before without any contact to foreigners.

And I'll have to add that I'm writing a TL about this

 

[Seleucus]

My guess is that if that was attempted, China would have (very eventually) became the next Turkey - i.e. overambitiously divided up, upon which nationalistic rebellions kick out most of the foreigners (minus Japan, who was willing to take massive casualties conquering China which other countries were not.)

 

[oreocruncher]

My guess is that if that was attempted, China would have (very eventually) became the next Turkey - i.e. overambitiously divided up, upon which nationalistic rebellions kick out most of the foreigners (minus Japan, who was willing to take massive casualties conquering China which other countries were not.)

And unlike Turkey, 90 or so% of the population is Han...