AHC WI: Kerry Wins 2004

Pericles

As it says on the tin. What if John Kerry beat Bush in 2004 and was elected President?

The how is relatively easy. Maybe no "I was for it before I was against it" and no Osama bin Laden tape, or Kerry wins Ohio.

What happens next? Could Kerry begin a withdrawl from Iraq and Afghanistan? Is there a chance, even witrh the war and recession, that Kerry could win in 2008? Or would a Republican, like McCain or Romney? If so, would the Democrats regain the White House in 2012, with perhaps Hillary Clinton. If not, who would win in 2012? What if?
 

Paul V McNutt

Banned
I don't think he gets a Democratic majority in Congress, so no health care program. tThere is still a crash, so he loses in 2008. tThere is no stimulas package, so the economy is worse. pPresident Romney loses in 2012.
 

hcallega

The How: Kerry comes out swinging after the swift-boat ads. He addresses and condemns the attacks early and nullifies the issue. Maybe even some blow-back against Bush. Kerry probably wins Ohio and maybe New Mexico and Iowa too.

What Happens Next?: Kerry has a rough first term domestically as he'll lack a majority in either House of Congress. On foreign policy, he probably pursues a gradual withdrawal from Iraq while shifting resources to Afghanistan. 2008 will come down to the economy, which probably means a President McCain or Romney.
 

Pericles

What would happen to Iraq with an earlier withdrawl? Much the same, better, or worse?

I think McCain would be elected in 2008 with Pawlenty. There could be a war with Iran.
 
LtNOWIS

LtNOWIS

Considering how close this was, it doesn't really qualify as an AHC. Any number of things could have tilted the scales on this election.

Iraq would eventually erupt into civil war as it did IOTL in 2006, only I think Kerry would lose his nerve and pull out US forces, leading to horrible results there and a loss of US prestige.
 

Pericles

LtNOWIS said:
Iraq would eventually erupt into civil war as it did IOTL in 2006, only I think Kerry would lose his nerve and pull out US forces, leading to horrible results there and a loss of US prestige.
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How would this effect Iraq itself? Would Iraq become Shi'ite fundamentalist or split in three, maybe?
 

JVM

LtNOWIS said:
Considering how close this was, it doesn't really qualify as an AHC. Any number of things could have tilted the scales on this election.

Iraq would eventually erupt into civil war as it did IOTL in 2006, only I think Kerry would lose his nerve and pull out US forces, leading to horrible results there and a loss of US prestige.
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No way. John Kerry had no chance of ever being president. He's too boring and too much of a flip-flopper. That's why he came within the voting irregularities of one state of winning the election.

Totally different from Al Gore, who would've been a fantastic president and had the election stolen by voting irregularities in Florida.
 

Pericles

JVM said:
No way. John Kerry had no chance of ever being president. He's too boring and too much of a flip-flopper. That's why he came within the voting irregularities of one state of winning the election.
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Yeah, Bush won 50.4%. Totally impossible and ASB for Kerry to get a few more votes and win:rolleyes::rolleyes:
 

su_liam

If the Congressional elections of 2004 go as OTL, he's going to start his presidency pretty flatfooted. A few Democrats might ride his coattails into office, but he's going to be facing a headwind in Congress in any case.

If the 2006 midterms go as OTL, he might maybe be able to prevent or delay the 2008 crash enough to get a second term. He should be able to reduce the severity, but even a softer crash if it starts before november 2008 is going to give us a Romney presidency.

More likely, since midterms tend to crap on the incumbent party all else being equal, the Democrats are going to make smaller gains than OTL. If Kerry's a lot stronger than I think he is, he might carry a real fight to the Republicans '04-'06 and bring back a lot of Democrats. Maybe.

Failing a strong Democratic turn in '06, Kerry can't roll back much Bush era economic policy in practice, so the crash pretty much comes along on schedule.

After four more years of Bush policy under Romney, things look pretty bleak in 2012. Landslide for Obama, probably a Democratic Congress. The only check on the left is Obama himself.
 

Pericles

OK, McCain would be more likely than Romney in 2008. I don't see why people keep thinking of Romney 2008. Also, obama's rise would likely be butterflied away, so Hillary would probably beat McCain in 2012. Also, if McCain still picks Palin and has an incompetent campaign, while Kerry delays the meltdown, then there could be a two-term president Kerry.
 

JVM

Pericles said:
Yeah, Bush won 50.4%. Totally impossible and ASB for Kerry to get a few more votes and win:rolleyes::rolleyes:
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I was being sarcastic to make a point about it. Ninety percent of the time I've discussed Kerry, people talk as if he lost by a landslide and never stood a chance of taking a shit on the White House lawn, whereas Gore is practically seen as an unstoppable juggernaut who only narrowly lost, when both came a state away.
 

Orville_third

Banned
Kerry did vote for war (after he ASKED for the opinion of a former UNSCOM inspector who told him Iraq was effectively disarmed) and refused to call for a withdrawal. I do think he'd listen to the Iraq Study Group, though.
 

Pericles

Orville_third said:
Kerry did vote for war (after he ASKED for the opinion of a former UNSCOM inspector who told him Iraq was effectively disarmed) and refused to call for a withdrawal. I do think he'd listen to the Iraq Study Group, though.
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Yes, but he was 'for it before he was against it.' President Kerry was now opposed to the Iraq War.
 

Nofix

Orville_third said:
Kerry did vote for war (after he ASKED for the opinion of a former UNSCOM inspector who told him Iraq was effectively disarmed) and refused to call for a withdrawal. I do think he'd listen to the Iraq Study Group, though.
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And FDR campaigned on cutting government spending and against Hoover's big government: what a politician says on the campaign trail means nothing. Actions speak louder than words, and in politics words are nothing until proven otherwise.
 

CCK

Kerry may or may not have won a second term in 2008. But his presidency would have had long lasting effects, well past 2008. Because he would have nominated the successors to Sandra Day O'Connor and William Rehnquist. Kerry would have nominated two center-left justices to replace a center-right O'Connor and a far-right Rehnquist. Swinging the ideology of the Supreme Court from the right to the left. Meaning no Citizen's United ruling in favor of Citizen's United. The Voting Rights Act would still be fully in tact. And the California Prop 8 ruling probably would have been more far reaching and gave gay marriage rights to all 50 states.

Sonia Sotomayor replaces O'Connor
Eric L. Clay replaces Rehnquist (becomes Chief Justice, first African-American Chief Justice)

The Clay Court
Liberals: Stevens, Souter, Ginsberg, Breyer, Sotomayor, Clay

Conservatives: Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas
 

Ninja Bear

CCK said:
Sonia Sotomayor replaces O'Connor
Eric L. Clay replaces Rehnquist (becomes Chief Justice, first African-American Chief Justice)

The Clay Court
Liberals: Stevens, Souter, Ginsberg, Breyer, Sotomayor, Clay

Conservatives: Scalia, Kennedy, Thomas
Click to expand...
I somewhat doubt that, especially the latter part; appointing an outsider and relative unknown directly to fill the Chief Justice's seat was fairly irregular and not likely to be done by anyone with more savvy than the Bush Administration. If he were a Cabinet secretary or a governor, I could see it, but I don't see it happening for a mere federal judge.

My guess would be Ginsburg, honestly
 
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