AHC/WI: Couronian colonial Empire?

[hirsch91]

As you all know, there was this one curious case of the small duchy of Courland colonizing places with only a population of 200k. Jacob Kettler jumpstarted the Couronian colonial "Empire" by building a lot of infrastructure that enabled Courland to have a thriving export sector which in turn led to the creation of a fairly large Couronian navy. With this, Kettler colonized Tobago and some island in west Africa to trade with African nations. Their colonization efforts were not easy and they suffered multiple setbacks but in the end, Tobago did turn out to be somewhat profitable and had huge growth potential.

In the 1650s Kettler had Pope Innocent X consent to launch a great expedition to Terra Australis but the devastation of the Second Northern war ended the colonial projects. But what if Couronia ended up colonizing Oceania? What would it look like? How could this happen? What impact would it have?

Of course, there is the issue with the Baltic Sea freezing over for a couple months every year which is why IOTL Kettler got a lease on the Norwegian port of Flekkerøy from which the colonization was led.

 

[hirsch91]

To make this happen, Sweden would have to respect Couronian neutrality in the Second Northern War as it was Swedens invasion of Courland that led to the demise of the shortlived Couronian colonial ambitions. Could Courland use this war to gain independence from the Commonwealth or stay with the Commonwealth but get Swedish Livonia and Estonia?
So how about this, Sweden respects Couronian neutrality just for Couronia to take advantage of both Polands weakness early on in the war to proclaim independence and then invade Swedish Livonia and Estonia once the tide turns against Sweden. This would be the ground work to establish Courland as a semi-great power and boost Courlands population and economy tremendously. Obviously this would lead to great revanchism on Swedens part and resentment on Russias part as both wanted the Baltics for themselves, however, Couronia could play Sweden and Russia against each other and have a valuable ally in the Commonwealth and Denmark.

Is this too ASB? I've been looking at the Russian battles against the Swedes in the war, and in none of the engagements did the Swedes have and army larger than 5k. The Russians conquered almost the entirety of Swedish Livonia safe for Riga which survived since the Russians had no navy to stop the resupplying of Swedish forces. Courland is wealthy and has a large navy. They could succeed where the Russians IOTL failed.

 

[Mildtryth]

In the 1650s Kettler had Pope Innocent X consent to launch a great expedition to Terra Australis but the devastation of the Second Northern war ended the colonial projects. But what if Couronia ended up colonizing Oceania? What would it look like? How could this happen? What impact would it have?

The problem with that is that Oceania is way too far away, which means that resupplying is going to be much harder, at the time does not seem to have anything readily profitable to be worth the long, expensive and dangerous trip to get there, and Courland does not have the population base to form a large settler colony either.

 

[hirsch91]

The problem with that is that Oceania is way too far away, which means that resupplying is going to be much harder, at the time does not seem to have anything readily profitable to be worth the long, expensive and dangerous trip to get there, and Courland does not have the population base to form a large settler colony either.

Could the Couronians establish a string of resupply stations/colonies along the way? Particularly on Saint Helena, Tristan da Cunha, Reunion. From one of those resupply stations/colonies, Kettler would outfit expeditions to Oceania wherein Australia, New Zealand and the surrounding islands are mapped and formally claimed. In the following years he would maybe make landfall on the islands and send expeditions into the interior. The actual colonization would start some time in the 18th century.

Of course, the British benefited from colonizing Australia right around the time when high speed clippers got replaced by steam ships enabling mass immigration to Australia but all it takes is just a large enough founding population for natural growth to do the rest. After all, French Canada grew a lot just by having a small founding population. The ball just needs to get rolling. And given that the climate of Australia is much more conducive to than Canada, it shouldn't be that hard to for a small founding population to expand rapidly. IIRC the Dutch founding population of Cape Colony was small too and rapidly grew.

As for settlers, IOTL Kettler sent both Latvian peasants and artisans to Tobago as well as hundreds of Dutch which turned out to be a mistake as they defected to the Dutch colony on the island immediately. But that means they wouldn't only resort to using Couronians as settlers. In the 1690s, tens of thousands of Estonians and Livonians died in a famine. The people at risk of famine could be used as settlers for the resupply colonies.

 

[Domrémy-Scorniçesti Axis]

As you all know, there was this one curious case of the small duchy of Courland colonizing places with only a population of 200k. Jacob Kettler jumpstarted the Couronian colonial "Empire" by building a lot of infrastructure that enabled Courland to have a thriving export sector which in turn led to the creation of a fairly large Couronian navy. With this, Kettler colonized Tobago and some island in west Africa to trade with African nations. Their colonization efforts were not easy and they suffered multiple setbacks but in the end, Tobago did turn out to be somewhat profitable and had huge growth potential.

In the 1650s Kettler had Pope Innocent X consent to launch a great expedition to Terra Australis but the devastation of the Second Northern war ended the colonial projects. But what if Couronia ended up colonizing Oceania? What would it look like? How could this happen? What impact would it have?

Of course, there is the issue with the Baltic Sea freezing over for a couple months every year which is why IOTL Kettler got a lease on the Norwegian port of Flekkerøy from which the colonization was led.

I doubt Imperial Russia would invade a small country with colonies

 

[hirsch91]

I doubt Imperial Russia would invade a small country with colonies

This is what my second answer was meant to address. A better outcome for Courland in one of the Northern wars might be able to both expand its resources and strengthen its geopolitical standing. Plus even if Courland gets its independence from the Commonwealth, both have a shared enemy in Russia and Sweden. Not saying that Courland would burn down Moscow or anything, just that there is room to maneuvre and it could get a lot better terms than IOTL. Furthermore, with its coffers getting filled by trade, they certainly would have the money to buy mercenaries.

But this begs the question, if Courland does end up becoming part of the Russian Empire, will its colonies become Russian too or will they be a seperate entity? Courlands annexation into the Russian Empire would come at the earliest in the late 18th century, by then, its colonies could become independent and the Couronian elites could flee to its colonies like the Portuguese did when the French invaded.

 

[traminer]

Could the Couronians establish a string of resupply stations/colonies along the way? Particularly on Saint Helena, Tristan da Cunha, Reunion. From one of those resupply stations/colonies, Kettler would outfit expeditions to Oceania wherein Australia, New Zealand and the surrounding islands are mapped and formally claimed. In the following years he would maybe make landfall on the islands and send expeditions into the interior. The actual colonization would start some time in the 18th century.

Of course, the British benefited from colonizing Australia right around the time when high speed clippers got replaced by steam ships enabling mass immigration to Australia but all it takes is just a large enough founding population for natural growth to do the rest. After all, French Canada grew a lot just by having a small founding population. The ball just needs to get rolling. And given that the climate of Australia is much more conducive to than Canada, it shouldn't be that hard to for a small founding population to expand rapidly. IIRC the Dutch founding population of Cape Colony was small too and rapidly grew.

As for settlers, IOTL Kettler sent both Latvian peasants and artisans to Tobago as well as hundreds of Dutch which turned out to be a mistake as they defected to the Dutch colony on the island immediately. But that means they wouldn't only resort to using Couronians as settlers. In the 1690s, tens of thousands of Estonians and Livonians died in a famine. The people at risk of famine could be used as settlers for the resupply colonies.

I'm a little surprised I hadn't spotted this thread earlier - the timeline in my sig file has just recently seen an accelerated Courland land colonists on Saint Helena, the Gambia and Fernão do Po (Tobago was covered a while back).

Kettler ran his colonies like franchises, little concerned with how Couronian they were, more concerned with the profit they might generate. For his proposed venture to Australia to proceed, his motive would have to shift from plantation and slave trade profit and toward settlement. The question remains: who would the settlers be? Kettler is, after all, a German ruling a population of Lativans, Kurs, and Latgalians (mostly). Even were he to want to settle Australia, or anywhere else, what will motivate actual Couronians to relocate?

 

[iddt3]

I'm a little surprised I hadn't spotted this thread earlier - the timeline in my sig file has just recently seen an accelerated Courland land colonists on Saint Helena, the Gambia and Fernão do Po (Tobago was covered a while back).

Kettler ran his colonies like franchises, little concerned with how Couronian they were, more concerned with the profit they might generate. For his proposed venture to Australia to proceed, his motive would have to shift from plantation and slave trade profit and toward settlement. The question remains: who would the settlers be? Kettler is, after all, a German ruling a population of Lativans, Kurs, and Latgalians (mostly). Even were he to want to settle Australia, or anywhere else, what will motivate actual Couronians to relocate?

Lol, I was just about to link your TL as the answer.

 

[Jürgen]

I'm a little surprised I hadn't spotted this thread earlier - the timeline in my sig file has just recently seen an accelerated Courland land colonists on Saint Helena, the Gambia and Fernão do Po (Tobago was covered a while back).

Kettler ran his colonies like franchises, little concerned with how Couronian they were, more concerned with the profit they might generate. For his proposed venture to Australia to proceed, his motive would have to shift from plantation and slave trade profit and toward settlement. The question remains: who would the settlers be? Kettler is, after all, a German ruling a population of Lativans, Kurs, and Latgalians (mostly). Even were he to want to settle Australia, or anywhere else, what will motivate actual Couronians to relocate?

It was pretty much how all the colonial powers ran their sugar colonies, they cared little for the language, nationality and religion of the inhabitants sugar islands. As example the Danish West Indies first spoke a Dutch creole called Negerhollandsk and then shifted to English after the Napoleonic Wars. Several Dutch colonies had Portuguese talking populations.

On the other hand the Danish slave forts in Africa spoke Danish, but that was because of the continued influx of Danish soldiers (who rarely survived to return to Denmark) and the growth of a native free biracial burgher population from these soldiers (the high death rates meant that they lived hard and the Danish authorities set up widow and orphan pensions and school for their biracial kid and black widows).

Fundamentally the colonies depend on the skillset needed for the settlers, low skillset and you used your own citizens. Curonian caribbean colonies will almost certainly be Dutch speaking,

As for elsewhere I think Courland will get settlers, by using criminals, debtors, and recruit others abroad. New Amsterdam had significant non-Dutch population mainly French, Belgian, German and Scandinavian. A Curonian settler colony will likely recruit mainly among Germans, Scandinavians and to lesser extent the Dutch, but it’s unlikely to recruit significant population, but even a small group of settlers can recruit pretty fast. As for language I expect it to speak Low German.

 

[traminer]

One can always rely on @Jürgen to give us the goods on the linguistic side of history. =)

Fundamentally the colonies depend on the skillset needed for the settlers, low skillset and you used your own citizens. Curonian caribbean colonies will almost certainly be Dutch speaking,

I can confirm this with my reading showing that the Tobago colony relied on many Dutch colonists. I can't confirm numbers, but it seems likely it was a plurality for most of the Couronian period. That a rival Dutch colony set up shop on the South side of Tobago may have even steered the island's overall European population to majority Dutch. But save for the earliest days, the population was always majority African - not that linguistic traces of the Gambia or Guinea managed to take over.

My own interests lie on the African side of Couronian colonization and its equivalents to the "biracial burgher population" Jürgen mentioned above. IRL, those were nonexistent or close to it for Courland in Africa. But the influence of the Portuguese-and-African-descended peoples in Portuguese trade, then eventually in British and French trade (and others) seems fascinating to explore.

As for elsewhere I think Courland will get settlers, by using criminals, debtors, and recruit others abroad. New Amsterdam had significant non-Dutch population mainly French, Belgian, German and Scandinavian. A Curonian settler colony will likely recruit mainly among Germans, Scandinavians and to lesser extent the Dutch, but it’s unlikely to recruit significant population, but even a small group of settlers can recruit pretty fast. As for language I expect it to speak Low German.

Seconded. Recruitment is achieved by financial success, or the credible promise of it. Your language is the one folks speak if the timeliest and most heterogeneous influx of people was yours.

 

[traminer]

Lol, I was just about to link your TL as the answer.

You do me too much credit. Though I've conveniently (coincidentally?) placed Courland in Saint Helena, so doing doesn't (yet, anyway) answer how Courland might colonize Oceania. I would certainly have some fun writing that, if my goal were just to write a fun Courland wank.

But perhaps I'll have a partial, plausible answer in my timeline down the line - whether or not Courland's ships ever reach Australia.