AHC/WI: By 1492, the Americas are at an OTL 1750-1800-ish European tech level

Is this plausible or ASB?

When Columbus reaches America in 1492 he comes across a technologically advanced civilization, similar to Captain Cook in the Green Antarctica timeline when he becomes the first non-Tsalal to reach Antarctica.

The Natives in this TL aren't industrial and don't know electricity yet outside of static electricity, however they have proto-industrial organized production similar to Roman Latifundia, their bigger settlements have macadam roads, public lighting at night with oil lamps on poles, pre-planned identical rows of houses lining the streets, and sewers.

In agriculture Llamas are domesticated as are Bison, breastband harnesses and collars are known, as is crop rotation. Their carriages and wagons use spring suspension and are as comfortable to ride as OTL late-18th century European carriages.

In medicine they know variolation and primitive vaccination.

In warfare they have muskets, cannons, and primitive rockets.

What plausible non-ASB-level changes in History would make this possible? How would world history change if Columbus sailed across the Atlantic and came across such a society?
 
Remotely plausible.

But they won't be the same natives we know. They could be Vikings or they could be an another set of migrants that initially crossed over into the Americas, probably before the ones we know did. It can happen. Americas have the best rivers and plains for a rich civilization to come up. A more numerous, preceding and more diverse initial migrations will do.
 
If the native Americans had been at a 1750 to 1800 level of technology, it would've been them who'd have discovered Eurasia / Africa, not the other way round. And there has to be a reason why they technologically lagged some 3000 years behind Eurasia IOTL. The bronze age in the Americas didn't e.g. start until after 200 CE. Even the Aztecs or the Incas can best be compared to Old or Middle Kingdom Ancient Egypt or the early Mesopotamian Empires. The crop and animal package they had access to has been named as a possible explanation.
 
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Skallagrim

Banned
It's not in any way a contradiction of the laws of nature, so it's not ASB. That being said, it is rather unlikely. The best POD I can think of is that for some reason, a much larger number of people migrates to the Americas, either initially or in successive waves. The reason I mention this is that population growth -- as long as sufficient land and other resources are available -- will be exponential. It was in OTL, but it still took a damn long time to sort of "fill up" the Americas with people. The development of increasingly complex cultures was kick-started only when this process was well underway, and large, settled populations formed.

Therefore, significantly more people from the get-go means that the exponential growth of the population will very probably see the 'critical mass' of concentrated populations being reached ealier, and thus there's a developmental head-start compared to OTL.

How to achieve this? There are various ways. There is also quite a bit of leeway, because when it comes to migration into the Americas, there are still a lot of open questions. Just over a year ago, I wrote a fairly long post about the uncertainties and the competing models, which might prove of some use here, so I'll quote it:

Regarding the migration of the first Native Americans (often called "Paleo-Indians"), very little is set in stone. Hypotheses that were considered very well-supported have been put on shaky ground by new discoveries. This has happened more than once, and may well happen again. Previous "consensus opinions" have been demonstrably incorrect, and at present, there isn't even a consensus. There is a majority opinion, but various minority views exist that have serious academic support. Any of them can be correct, or the truth may combine aspects of these competing models. What I'm going to do is to lay out the various models (very generally and roughly) that are (as far as I'm aware) defended by any serious academics at this time.

First, we have the long chronology theory. This model is based on the idea that there was an early population of settlers, possibly present before 40,000 years ago. It has been suggested that this wave of migrants may have been related to Australian Aboriginals— a product of the same early wave of human migration. If such a population existed, they were pushed aside or assimilated by a later second wave of immigration. Some genetically distinct communities may have survived in relative isolation for quite some time. (For instance, some think that the original "Botocudo culture" consisted of a population that was ethnically distinct from modern Native Americans, because the ancient skulls are noticeably different.) Since these presumed early settlers were either wiped out or (if assimilated) weren't numerous enough to leave noticeable phenotypical heritage in the later population, we may assume that this would hold true no matter who forms the second wave of immigrants. But the POD "what if no later migration occurred" can give us an ATL where the Americas aren't empty (as some scenarios have it), but populated by distant cousins of the Australian Aboriginals. I'd call that interesting, and therefore worth mentioning.

There is also the short chronology theory, which comes in a number of flavours, which cover basically every other serious model. They are all rooted in the notion that the first migration occurred after the Last Glacial Maximum, which went into decline after c. 19,000 years ago. The old "Clovis consensus" held that the Clovis Culture was the "mother culture" of all Native Americans. It appeared c. 13,000 years ago, which meant that the ancestors of all Native Americans had migrated across the Bering Bridge between 19,000 and 13,000 years ago, via a supposed ice-free corridor. They moved into North America, producing the Clovis Culture, which then produced countless offshoots that went on to populated the Americas. This is no longer the dominant view, although it still has some defenders.

The fact that a substantial number of older sites have been discovered suggests very strongly that Native Americans (of Siberian origins, so not meaning the supposed 'early arrivals') were present at an earlier time than 13,000 years ago. Sites dating back to 16,000 and 15,000 years ago have been found. Those who still defend 'Clovis first' have criticisms of the dating of each of these sites individually— yet the idea that the dating is wrong every time a pre-Clovis site is discovered is quite implausible. The Clovis first model is looking less credible by the day.

Also, the whole existence of any ice-free corridor has been called into question. Even if that corridor existed, though, those older sites are too old to fit with the idea of entry into the Americas via such a corridor. If there was a corridor, the peoples inhabiting those sites must've arrived before it became passable. The idea that they arrived by boat (the "coastal route" model) has now become increasingly embraced. This would also explain why there are sites in South America that are older than one would expect if settlement occurred via migration on foot. But if settlers went down the western sea-board by coast-hugging boats, things make much more sense. This model assumes that the original settlers from North-East Asia arrived quite shortly after 19,000 years ago. (Some academics place their arrival as early as 23,000 years ago, but that's a distinct minority view.) The original migrant population is generally believed to have been small: about 250 people or so.

Does that give us a shiny new consensus, then? No. Because there are still two competing sub-models. The most broadly accepted one holds that the initial 'Bering migration' was followed up by multiple later waves. Three or four waves of migrants from North-East Asia are believed to have moved into the Americas, with the one around 19,000 years ago being the first. (This model makes any scenario where Native Americans of Asian origin are fully absent quite unlikely, as Burton K Wheeler has noted.)

However, there is also a competing model—less widely supported, but certainly not some fringe belief—which holds that there was just one group of immigrants from North-East Asia. Those c. 250 people who arrived c. 19,000 years ago. They form the ancestral population of all subsequent Native Americans. The subsequent 'waves' of migration throughout the Americas isn't disputed, but the adherents of this model believe that those waves originated with the one ancestral population. So instead of Asians making it to America three or four times, they just made it once, and offshoots of the resulting population migrated throughout the Americas in multiple waves. If we assume that to have been the case, it would explain a few things that have puzzled researchers. For instance, one single and small ancestral population would handily explain why Native American HLA profiles are dominated by an unusually small number of types. (Which is one of the reasons why they were so susceptible to epidemics.) It fits. The odds of one population finding its way into America is also a bit more credible then three or four waves of migration finding the way, thousands of years apart.

You can probably tell that I'm a supporter (albeit a cautious and tentative one) of the notion that there was just one ancestral group of immigrants. In any event, the model is credible enough to reasonably serve as the basis for a POD. You can say "that one group didn't make the trip" and you're done. That still doesn't give you any credible way to populate the Americas with anything even vaguely "white", however.

Of course, there is always the Solutrean hypothesis, which claims that Europeans of the Solutrean Culture moved in from across the Atlantic before anyone arrived from North-East Asia. I find the arguments in favour of this model to be pretty lacking, but it's not pseudo-science. Just very unlikely to be true. Both proponents and opponents tend to politicise this theory very heavily. One thing that is of interest is that supporters of the Solutrean hypothesis have pointed out that there is more "Western Eurasian" DNA in Native Americans than one would expect if their ancestors were fully of East-Asian descent. This is all pretty controversial, and studies are conflicting. Also, critics have argued (not unreasonably) that a lot of claims of "white DNA" in Native Americans are based on DNA taken from modern populations, and reflects no more than simple inter-breeding with Europeans as of 1492. Seems a lot more plausible to me.

However... DNA research of ancient human remains found in Siberia (c. 24,000) years old has revealed these to have far more genes linked to Western Eurasian populations than previously thought (instead of being exclusively linked to East Asian populations). Furthermore, it seems that these Siberian remains belonged to people related to the Paleo-Indians. This opens the door to a new hypothesis: namely that the original population that moved in from North-East Asian may have been a mixed group, including people with more Western Eurasian genetic heritage than anyone had previously suspected. This isn't so unlikely: it's becoming ever more clear that ancient nomadic peoples all over Northern Eurasia were highly nomadic, and travelled greater distances than previously suspected. People whose ancestors came from Western Eurasia ending up in East Asia is no longer just a theory. That happened. And it may just be the case that some of them, nearly twenty millennia ago, were among those who made that fateful journey into a new world. If it should turn out that (some) Western Eurasian DNA in Native Americans is older than 1491, this explanation makes infinitely more sense than the Solutrean hypothesis.

This gives a person, depending on which model he prefers, ample opportunities to craft ATL scenarios that have more people moving into the Americas earlier, which would yield a more densely populated New World earlier on, thus giving complex cultures more time to develop. In OTL, this process occurred at various times in various regions of the Americas, but is generally understood as beginning around 2000 BC at the earliest (Meso-America), 1000 BC at the latest (commencement of the Woodland Period), with other instances beginning somewher in between those two (1800 BC is often taken as a bench-mark regarding the Andean cultures).

Considering the start of similar processes in Eurasia, the Americas lagged several millennia behind. This has nothing to do with any kind of bullshit reason about cultural superiority, to be clear: it is very obviously an effect of a demographic disadvantage. A very small founding population (tine even if you assume multiple waves!) had to grow, and grow, and ultimately spread out and cover a continent. All in archaic times, with none of those nifty benefits that allow modern populations to spread like a damned locust swarm.

I could see this process, with the POD of a larger ancestral population and the subsequent demographic effects, starting a thousand years earlier. If you really let things go their way, you could semi-plausibly give them two thousand years. And that still puts them about a thousand years behind Eurasia. But development isn't some fixed, linear path. I believe that the set-up I have described would create such vastly different circumstances that the OTL events -- Europeans anno 1492 basically just moving in and taking over -- are now unthinkable. Not just unlikely, but literally no longer a possibility.

Not least because a larger starting population solves the problem, that I have often mentioned, of the Native American immune system's unusual vulnerability. A significant part of the susceptibility of the Native Americans to Old World diseases derived from their immune system, particularly the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) of Native American individuals. There are countless MHC types, and a foreign element that gets past some will not get past others. Most human populations contain many MHC types, yet Native Americans are very homogenous in this regard (three types, compared to about 200, which is normal). This unusual trait derives, almost certainly, from the limited ancestral population. It's a major reason why diseases hit Native Americans extra hard. It's why we see mortality rates exceeding 90%, rather than the Black Death levels (maybe 40%) that you'd actually expect with "virgin soil" populations.

So the POD I suggest is the most fundamental one for giving the Native Americans an extra thousand years (maybe more) of cultural development (and the resulting advances in all fields), while at the same time ensuring that -- even though there will still be a cataclysmic death toll from disease -- the OTL civilisation-wrecking plague apocalypse is averted.

This still doesn't give us the scenario posited in the OP, which frankly suggests that the ATL Native Americans should be more advanced than the Europeans. Given the time-disadvantage I have described, this is very unlikely. The lack of domesticated animals is a distinct disadvantage. I don't believe that what I propose would make domestications any more likely. In fact, maybe even the opposite: more people much earlier may well mean more extintions earlier, too.

But okay, if you steer the timeline to have some ATL domestication occur (I must say that domestication of the bison doesn't strike me as the likeliest option), that's a nice bonus. It's not ASB, but you're definitely in wank territory be that stage. (Note that if they domesticate animals, this will result in an array of New World diseases that will hit Eurasia as hard as the ATL Americas are hit by Eurasian diseases. Two ATL Black Deaths, how's that for a Columbian exchange?)
 
Fundamentally, I'm not sure that this couldn't happen. I don't think we really know at root why we saw what we saw in Eurasia at 1400 AD, by 1400 AD, and not 1000 BCE, for'ex.
I don't think it would be easy to identify a specific POD, due to this.

That said "Less time for things to happen" would suggest to me that in more er... iterations of our world, we'd at least see it happen less often.

It's probably reasonable that with genetics being what they were, perhaps you'd probably see mass die-offs tending to hit the Americas than Eurasia, following contact, more, even in a scenario with equal population...

But I would think that with technology being more equal, there'd be a better chance of limiting the success of what were small, risky, expensive ventures by settlers and soldiers, with high death rates, such that even with 90% die-offs, you might still see quite limited success with less demographic impact and those colonists from Eurasia that did arrive more likely getting assimilated into whatever the American cultures and languages and high state religious philosophies were there at that time.
 
I tend to agree with this hypothesis. In Eurasia human populations had been expanding and, more importantly, mixing with each other for perhaps 50000 years ( I am thinking of modern human/ Neaderthal/Denisovan interbreeding) plus apparent multiple influxes from Africa during the late Pleisticene. The genetic diversity was immense. Animal domestication probably was beginning circa 10000 years ago or more in some places. In the Americas there were three or possibly four migrations from Asia during the last Ice Age. Such new infusions of people ended after that.
 
In agriculture Llamas are domesticated as are Bison, breastband harnesses and collars are known, as is crop rotation. Their carriages and wagons use spring suspension and are as comfortable to ride as OTL late-18th century European carriages.

So their civilization would be the "Llamanites" ?
 
I don't know why people are saying this wouldn't be ASB, this would 100% be ASB. The amount of cards that would need to fall into place for something like this to happen is near to impossible. For one, I hate the notion that human civilizations had some "tech tree" like we're playing Civilization or some PDX game. Different societies required different expertise. The native Americans were only "behind" if you completely ignore the social-economic progress. While the old world had more prominent advances in metallurgy, firearms, and shipbuilding; nations in mesoamerica had chinampas, obsidian, rubber, calendrics.

The idea that we just need to throw more people into the New World ignores the fact that a city like Tenochtitlan was one of the largest cities in the world, only being comparable to European cities like Paris, Venice, and Constantinople; even then it was more "socially" advance compared to their European counterparts. The Aztec Empire, in general, had a greater population than most European countries at the time, the Inca even more. And while the native Americans had a biological lower-level of HLA-DQA1, you also have to know why those in the old world developed a much higher count of the MHC genes: many population centers, overall population density, and domesticated animals. The later being imo the most important. Playing with large scale human migration is really shakey territory in my books.

We need to wave our wand and make practically all the major hubs of Native American peoples develop agrarian societies in a similar fashion that the Mesoamericans and Andeans did. We secondly need to make a vast continental base "road" in a similar fashion of the silk road that occurs to connect these civilizations continents apart. Third, we need to get domesticated animals, llamas alone aren't going to make it, and domesticating bison is borderline asb as well. You need to make the American horse survive to allow growing continental travel, this could also allow for them to domesticate the some of the pleistocene megafauna, which could possibly entrench American cultures into city-states rather than primarily hunter-gather society.
 
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Perhaps I hesitate at bringing Jared Diamond into this, but the lack of larger animals capable of being domesticated is almost certainly a terminal barrier to the development of Original American cultures to and/or beyond the contemporary level of Eurasian development. And that, per our sites rules, becomes ASB (a term I HATE to use).
 

Skallagrim

Banned
I don't know why people are saying this wouldn't be ASB, this would 100% be ASB.
ASB = Aliens Space Bats. Supernatural stuff. Unlikely =/= ASB.

For one, I hate the notion that human civilizations had some "tech tree" like we're playing Civilization of some PDX game.
But nobody here has argued that. Far from it.

The idea that we just need to throw more people into the New World ignores the fact that a city like Tenochtitlan was one of the largest cities in the world, only being comparable to European cities like Paris, Venice, and Constantinople;
The key point is that development of complex cultures lagged behind Eurasia by at least 3000 years. You can point to a big city that exists in 1500, but that doesn't change the fact that it's pretty damn recent. (Tenochtitlan in particular didn't even exist until 1325.) That is the key problem I am pointing out. Even without a fixed tech tree or any nonsense like that, the closest Old World thing to compare the Aztec, Mayan or Incan cultures to would be Ancient Egypt or Mesopotamia. Given that general fact, they worked veritable wonders, but we're not looking at something that was anywhere close to technological parity with Europe.

We can work to bridge the abyss, but the first step will have to be reducing the lag. That means more people, because more people means large conglomerations form much earlier. And that's pretty damn crucial to building up increasingly sophisticated societies. It also encourages a rapid transition to sedentary agricultural practices (because populations must be fed).

even then it was more "socially" advance compared to their European counterparts.
That's... highly debatable. For starters, there's the simple fact that "social progress" is totally subjective. At least when it comes to science and technology, we can venture useful estimates, even if there is no one linear path. With social "advancement", it's just opinion. It's like people saying the Romans were "socially more advanced" than Europeans anno 1500. A claim like that means nothing, because it depends fully and exclusively on what you consider preferable.

And while the native Americans had a biological lower-level of HLA-DQA1, you also have to know why those in the old world developed a much higher count of the MHC genes: many population centers, overall population density, and domesticated animals.
That's conjecture. The far more likely explanation, which is the one generally accepted, is that a very small ancestral population is the key issue here. However, even if your claim here is true, that still underlines the fact that Eurasia has a great advantage by having a history of many population centres and greater overall population density. Hey, that's just what I proposed we should change.

Now, you can just throw it to the domestications, and claim that that's the magical difference that makes the Native Americans screwed in OTL, but I'm not really convinced. Why? Because we can see when complex societies evolve in the archeological record. In the New World, they lag (at minimum) 3000 years behind the Old World. There's the key factor. That's what you need to change. Is the domestication of animals vital to that? Possibly. But do note that despite their 'time handicap' the people of the New World managed to build up several complex societies, independently from each other, without those domesticated animals. That's pretty nifty.

It also suggests that you might consider taking your own "there is no fixed tech tree" advice to heart, and realise that animal domestications are one potential step in a tech tree. But, you know, other branches are available. Clearly, they're viable. So while I'm pretty sure that domesticating some animals would be a great boon (and I agree with you on the American horse being a nice option, although there are alternatives), don't think it's the crucial bottle-neck. The evidence doesn't support that.

The Old World kick-started the development of complex societies 3000 years earlier, and that's the big issue. Why did this happen? The Old World had a major demographic head start. So what needs to change, first and foremost, if necessary to the exclusion of all other factors? Archaic demography of the New World. More people! We have 3000 years to catch up on, here.
 
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ASB = Aliens Space Bats. Supernatural stuff. Unlikely =/= ASB.
Imo the number of converging events that'd need to happen for op's proposition is supernatural stuff.

But nobody here has argued that. Far from it.
Except for the title of the op. And the contents of the initial argument laid out by op heavily implies such.

The key point is that development of complex cultures lagged behind Eurasia by at least 3000 years. You can point to a big city that exists in 1500, but that doesn't change the fact that it's pretty damn recent. (Tenochtitlan in particular didn't even exist until 1325.) That is the key problem I am pointing out. Even without a fixed tech tree or any nonsense like that, the closest Old World thing to compare the Aztec, Mayan or Incan cultures to would be Ancient Egypt or Mesopotamia. Given that general fact, they worked veritable wonders, but we're not looking at something that was was anywhere close to technological parity with Europe.

We can work to bridge the abyss, but the first step will have to be reducing the lag. That means more people, because more people means large conglomerations form much earlier. And that's pretty damn crucial to building up increasingly sophisticated societies. It also encourages a rapid transition to sedentary agricultural practices (because populations must be fed).
I think the fact that Tenochtitlan was so recent implies the fact that there was a population base already existing for this rapid urbanization. The Toltecs even before that had the groundwork for this. Maybe I'm not understanding your reasoning, but you state you're not arguing for a fixed tech tree but you still put Europe and the Old World on this technological superiority over the New World civilizations, maybe because we have differentiating definitions on what it means to be "technologically advance". The notion can be completely reversed in saying that the Europeans were nowhere close to technological parity with Mesoamerica. The agrarian methods of the Europeans weren't on the level of that of the New World (Chinampas, which were fired used during the late 12th century), the same way that the Europeans could not produce obsidian or extract rubber: they didn't need to, and the same could be said about the lack of metallurgy and the advancements of shipbuilding that effected American progression: they didn't need it. If you're simply referencing societal advancements, and the interlocking of cultures, then yes, the Europeans and Old Worlders were ahead in the matter, as the New World civilizations were, for the most part, very isolated from one another.

Regardless of this, I'm still unconvinced in the matter that the new world simply needs "more initial settlers" to kickstart civilization. I just can't see how having a larger initial demographic is going to mold these paleo-indian peoples into mimicking those in the old world along mesopotamia, the yellow river valley, and the indus. The thing is, we don't know when the earliest mesoamerican cities were made. You could make the argument that large Olmec sites like La Venta are cities, though that is completely debatable, so the range of settlement is practically an entire millennia. The more likely option is concentrated population "booms" in early settlements which could see the rise of complex cultures. This population growth will gradually create these centers and expand outward into the density we need. The lag in massive urbanized environments can certainly be argued by the lack of domesticated animals. The usage of cattle and horses in Mesopotamian society was major, and the fact that the Paleo-Indians drove their megafauna counterparts to extinction initiated a large handicap on them. Despite this, and as you said, and I agree, the Mesoamerican and Ande civilizations circumnavigated this handicap regardless and develop very complex civilizations. Though this is going totally against op's initial suggestion, and that's why I find it ASB, even with the gradual expansion of civilization in the Americas, you'll never see them become more "advance" than their old world counterparts, and especially with these Old World technologies (as stated why in the previous paragraph)
 
I think you would need to have sustained transatlantic or transpacific contact at as early a time as possible, so as to allow for the diffusion of genes and technology and disease at as early a point as possible. The problem with this is that, although the population of the Americas circa 1492 might be largely made up of people of local background able to compete with Eurasian civilizations, they will not resemble the civilizations we know. For that matter, if there was two-way diffusion Eurasian will be unrecognizable. What would China be like if it had major Mesoamerican food crops as early as the Qin, say?
 
While the only way to get this is probably by having a larger and a far more diverse Prehistoric migrations into the Americas, there is a challenge to achieve that from the Bering strait. The pathway to and through the Bering strait is a hostile land, which needs thousands of miles of migration by foot in the cold and resource starved lands and then through the snowy and stormy regions. This probably would not allow for such a large and diverse population to come into the Americas as the number will always be so few.

Looking the other direction is however, an option. What if we establish an early seafaring culture among an initially few tribes in Northern and Western Europe, after the invention of Agriculture/Fisheries? This would lead to the Americas being settled even from the East Coast, too, via Iceland and Britain from the Scandinavia and the Baltic regions. Iberia and France are quite resource rich to get into grand seafaring missions like that. Besides, it is probably the more Fishery oriented cultures that could do that. Somewhat like the early Norsemen. Eurasia being Genetically more diverse, could end up generating a more diverse migration into the Americas in an event of a sustained contact via Iceland and Newfoundland. Eventually, Americas see waves of new settlements from the East and the diffusion of genes, animals and technology.

An early transatlantic contact can pull this off.
 
This is extremely difficult without either:
1. Nerf the Old World in similar ways the New World was nerfed, like with domesticated animals being smaller or even non-existant due to over hunting, key crops slower to spread for whatever reason and some never really domesticated, and fewer centers of complex civilisation combined with fewer trade routes.
2. Put down more cultures in the New World evolving contemporary to the Mesoamericans and Andes.

There's many ways to strengthen the New World but to have it be on a level like 18th century Europe is asking quite a bit. Even with number 2, you still need to turn back the clock a millennia or two on the emergence of civilisation and agriculture there and give them some key innovations like better sailing and boat building so key connections like Mesoamerica-Andes are far, far, far more traveled than OTL. This should allow the necessary economic base and population size to get the innovations and institutions needed for more technological investment.
I think you would need to have sustained transatlantic or transpacific contact at as early a time as possible, so as to allow for the diffusion of genes and technology and disease at as early a point as possible. The problem with this is that, although the population of the Americas circa 1492 might be largely made up of people of local background able to compete with Eurasian civilizations, they will not resemble the civilizations we know. For that matter, if there was two-way diffusion Eurasian will be unrecognizable. What would China be like if it had major Mesoamerican food crops as early as the Qin, say?
A scenario with a more advanced indigenous America guaranteed has that early on. In fact, I'd say it's just as likely they discover Europe rather than Europe discovering them.
 
In the mid-1990s, soc.history.what-if had a great collaborative thread in which the peoples of the Americas, sub-Saharan Africa, and the Pacific islands ended up emerging dominant. The POD was the bombardment of the heartlands of Eurasia by comets, and the timeline took place centuries after that, giving these cultures on the fringes of Eurasia a chance to catch up.
 
The Old World kick-started the development of complex societies 3000 years earlier, and that's the big issue. Why did this happen? The Old World had a major demographic head start. So what needs to change, first and foremost, if necessary to the exclusion of all other factors? Archaic demography of the New World. More people! We have 3000 years to catch up on, here.

The major problem with this is that I am not sure that the Americas can catch up meaningfully, population-wise, to the Old World. Even now, after centuries of heavy immigration and high population growth recovering from post-Columbian nadirs, there are just a billion people in the Americas. This compares to the two billion in Europe-Africa, two continents which suffered heavy losses due to said post-Columbian immigration to the Americas.

Can the Americas, in isolation, ever catch up fully to the Old World barring disaster there?
 
The major problem with this is that I am not sure that the Americas can catch up meaningfully, population-wise, to the Old World. Even now, after centuries of heavy immigration and high population growth recovering from post-Columbian nadirs, there are just a billion people in the Americas. This compares to the two billion in Europe-Africa, two continents which suffered heavy losses due to said post-Columbian immigration to the Americas.

Can the Americas, in isolation, ever catch up fully to the Old World barring disaster there?
But they can. You buy the Americas more time, then you have time for more meaningful trade relations between the areas and important things like Eastern North America adapting to maize agriculture (which became central to their economy in the late 1st millennium). Or better yet, alternative crops like a more refined Eastern Agricultural Complex or domesticating western plants like camas or wapato (although it's possible with enough extra time and some good climate conditions, Three Sisters agriculture would spread across the Rockies to the Snake River, PNW, and California, as it was spreading to the Pacific in the area near modern San Diego via the Puebloans in the period immediately before the Spanish showed up and major droughts hit). And as I mentioned, sailing and shipbuilding is a huge innovation. In the Old World, Sumerians traded with the Indus Valley peoples, and a New World equivalent has earlier and much more regular links between Mesoamerica and the Andes, and also ports in the modern Gulf.

The rest is luck regarding wars, plagues, and scholars. Engineering could be a specialty of the Americas since irrigated agriculture is necessary in coastal South America and much of North America (like the OTL Oasisamerica area i.e. Hohokam as well as a hypothetical agricultural civilisation on the Columbia Plateau). And not just irrigation either, since the Mississippi is a very challenging river in terms of how it floods and perplexed 19th century scholars and levee building will be necessary. I think we could have an "Amerindian Archimedes" (among other notables), and let's consider this area produced many notable pyramids and mounds. We just need more trade, urbanisation, and at the core, demographics, to increase the likelihood of said figure emerging.
 
Are "butterfly nets" ASB? Because the only ASB thing I see with this scenario is how to get such radical divergence in the Americas without utterly changing Eurasia.
 
Perhaps I hesitate at bringing Jared Diamond into this...
No, you're entirely right to reference him here. For this scenario to happen you'd need a different set of domesticatable plants and animals in the Americas to allow for the scale of societies for the thread's postulate. Evolutionary changes are Space Bats, as per forum rules.

That said, if you possibly had some Noah+Moses-like figure pack up the entire Mesopotamian or Chinese agricultural package and ship it across the ocean 5000 years ago, then maybe it could serve as a foundation to something, but that might be verging on Bats territory again.
 
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