AHC/WI: Axis Vichy France?

Most important convoys were too far north for Dakar to be of any use. And it could be easily taken by the British.

The W.S. troop convoys to the Middle East and the other convoys carrying equipment and munitions to Egypt were quite important. The British would have to give them much stronger escorts, which would mean weakening their naval forces somewhere else. Or send it all through the Panama Canal and then across the Pacific or around Cape Horn.
 
Provided you can get those 40 million people to cooperate. What good is this industry (already employed to the maximum capacity possible OTL anyway) if there are no resources to feed it with?

It doesn't put them in a worse position. Even if "only" more French people collaborate with the Axis than actually did it is still an improvement.

I agree that France going over to the axis is so unlikely as to verge on ASB. However, I am answering the question, which is what are the consequences, not the chances of it happening.

The USA should have been slaughtered by England in the 1950 World Cup, but the USA won.
 
Without doubt. As long as the Axis can actually ship supplies to Dakar.

The supplies to Dakar go by sea from Marseilles or an Italian port on the west side of the Mediterranean to Tunis or one of the other ports in French North Africa. The Western Mediterranean will be an Axis lake until Operation Torch. I know about Gibraltar, but the Vichy French Navy has enough ships to protect the transports.

Then they go by rail to Casablanca on the Atlantic coast of French Morocco.

The empty trains and merchant ships carry the cargoes brought in by the blockade runners. Its going to be easier (but still difficult) for them to make Casablanca than French port in the Bay of Biscay.

Then the dangerous part - the sea passage from Casablanca to Dakar. The Royal Navy will do its best to sink the supply ships, but as it had quite a lot on its plate between June 1940 and the end of 1941 finding enough ships to do it effectively might be a problem.

However, if that part of the journey is too dangerous to attempt with surface ships the Axis could use submarines such as the Milch Cow U-boats. They had other U-boats that were built to transport torpedoes.

And the sea passage from Casablanca to Dakar would be unnecessary if the Trans-Sahara railway had been built. I'm not being serious about that one, it would require a POD in 1930 to have it ready in 1940.

If the Axis powers were going to build a railway in Africa it would be to fill the gap between the French railways in Tunisia and the Italian lines around Tripoli.
 
It doesn't put them in a worse position. Even if "only" more French people collaborate with the Axis than actually did it is still an improvement.

It does not put them into much better, either.

I am trying to imagine what would really change for the Germans with Vichy belligerence.

The trouble is this is such a fundamental change of Vichy that it is hard to really project the outcomes. In the end it would be a matter of personal choice of every individual. I tend to believe that majority of the French would not accept this new policy lightly. Colonies doubly so.
 
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carl Schwamberger
If any of the air force is intact & capable of moving east then that might be more useful than ground forces.


This is an extract from Extract from The Air Forces of the World, by William Green and John Fricker

By June 17, 1940, when Marshal Pétain sought terms of surrender from the Germans, Paris had been occupied and Guerdian's armoured forces had thrust forward as far as Dijon and Saône. The Armée de l' Air was still fighting, and on June 23rd, when the French Government capitulated, had more operational aircraft than at the start of the German offensive. During June 18th-20th the D.520 fighters of GCI/3, II/3, III/3, III/6 and II/7, and the Hawk 75As of GCIII/2, I/4, II/4, I/5 and II/5 had been ordered to North Africa, but the remainder of the Armée de l' Air elements based in France at the time of the capitulation awaited disbandment in accordance with the terms of the Armistice.

On July 3rd the Royal Navy launched an attack on the French Fleet at Mers el Kébir to prevent its possible use by the Axis powers. In the hope that the Mers el Kébir clash would develop into a Franco-British war, the German Government rescinded its demand for the disbandment of all Armée de l' Air elements, and agreed to the retention of some units for the protection of France's North African possessions.

The forces retained, subsequently referred to as the Vichy Air Force, included 6 Groupes de Chasse, with Bloch M.B.151s, 152s and 155s; two Escardrilles de Chasse de Nuit, with Potez 631s; four Groupes de Bombardement with LeO451s; two Groupes de Bombardement d' Assault with Breguet 693s; three Groupes du Reconnaissance with Potez 63-11s, and one Groupe de Transport with Farman 222s and Amiot 143s. All these units were divided into the 1° and 2° Régions Aériennes. Fighter pilots were allowed to fly four hours each month, and bomber and reconnaissance pilots six hours. The German Armistice Commission also permitted production of the Dewoitine D.520 fighter to continue at Toluse, this type later re-equipping several Vichy Groupes de Chasse.

In North Africa, which was designated Commandment Superior de l' Air en Afrique du Nord, were based four Groupes de Chase with D.520s and two with Hawk 75As; five Groupes de Bombardement with LeO451s and four with DB-7s; two Groupes de Reconnaissance with M.B.174s and 175s, two with Potez 63-11s. and one with Martin 167s; and one Groupe de Transport flying Potez 54s and 65s. In French West Africa the Vichy Air Force had one Hawk 75A-equipped Groupe de Chase; three Groupes de Bombardement flying Martin 167s, and one Groupe de Reconnaissance flying Potez 63-11s. In Madagascar were stationed a mixed squadron of Potez 25s and 63-11s, and in Syria and the Lebanon were one M.S.406 Groupe, one Martin 167 Groupe de Bombardement, one Potez 63-11 Groupe, and six squadrons with obsolete Bloch M.B.200s, Potez 25s and 29s. A number of the units were not at their full establishments but, nevertheless, the Vichy Air Force was quite a sizeable component with between 700 and 800 combat aircraft.


I don't know how easy it would be to move some of it to the Eastern Front.

Thanks for that. Green has a good reputation.

The logistics challenges for the German AF were different from the field armies. In the first months of the war in the east a extra 500 aircraft particularly tactical bombers may have made a greater difference that a couple of motorized corps. there still could be a morale or volunteer problem, but the consequences would be different than with infantry.
 
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thaddeus

Donor
The logistics challenges for the German AF were different from the field armies. In the first months of the war in the east a extra 500 aircraft particularly tactical bombers may have made a greater difference that a couple of motorized corps. there still could be a morale or volunteer problem, but the consequences would be different than with infantry.

does it seem more plausible Vichy air force kept in the colonies (away from Europe) to guard against further British (and under my scenario Italian) attacks?

thinking it would be easier to maintain a small air force, submarine corps, and gun batteries (with reliable personnel) than recruit 100s of thousands?
 
does it seem more plausible Vichy air force kept in the colonies (away from Europe) to guard against further British (and under my scenario Italian) attacks?

Sure. There are several other ways to look at this. Does Germany want a minor ally or a large one? The number quoted from Green are for the armistice air force of OTL. We have to remember when the cease fire came in June France possesed in Metropolitan France & NW Africa appox 3,000 operational aircraft & perhaps another thousand damaged or stored.

If Germany restricts the French AF as in OTL then your question is a good one. Alternatley if this French ally is expected to contribute a large AF the both Africa and the east can have coverage. Or at least as much as the French citizenry will support.
 

thaddeus

Donor
does it seem more plausible Vichy air force kept in the colonies (away from Europe) to guard against further British (and under my scenario Italian) attacks?

Sure. There are several other ways to look at this. Does Germany want a minor ally or a large one? We have to remember when the cease fire came in June France possesed in Metropolitan France & NW Africa appox 3,000 operational aircraft & perhaps another thousand damaged or stored.

If Germany restricts the French AF as in OTL then your question is a good one. Alternatley if this French ally is expected to contribute a large AF the both Africa and the east can have coverage.

thanks. very interesting points about (potential) French air power, all the focus is usually on the fleet.

they DID have a myriad of aircraft manufacturing projects together.

my speculation was, with Germany allowed bases in Tunisia, Dakar, Syria, et al, the French air force would be occupied but as you have pointed out their capacity was far greater.
 
Ultimate danger for Germany is Laval, or whoever, cant hold the military together. Petain was having trouble with his nuetral policy. He tried ensuring all the key commanders were loyal but there were simply not enough who saw Frances future outside the Allied camp. The danger for the Axis is some regional French commander is liable to flip his region in cooperation with the Allies, resulting a large stratigic hole in the Axis defense, or offence, This is in fact what happened several times, and on large scale in NOvember 1942. Not only did Darlan flip the entire NW African region, but discipline was breaking down in unoccupied France & at least one local commander was taking action to receive Allied soldiers @ Bourdeuex.

A pro Axis or Facist French government will be hard pressed to find a large number of like minded military leaders or men for the ranks that it can truly trust. This question runs against the large material resources that might be salvaged after the defeat in June 1940.
 

thaddeus

Donor
Ultimate danger for Germany is Laval, or whoever, cant hold the military together. Petain was having trouble with his nuetral policy. He tried ensuring all the key commanders were loyal but there were simply not enough who saw Frances future outside the Allied camp.

A pro Axis or Facist French government will be hard pressed to find a large number of like minded military leaders or men for the ranks that it can truly trust. This question runs against the large material resources that might be salvaged after the defeat in June 1940.

think for this scenario any POD(s) would first be continued German strength, the invasion of USSR (prior to any signed agreement with France) really sapped any interest/enthusiasm.

probably requires concessions that (OTL) Germany did/would not make, final borders, etc (areas labeled no returns never attracted German settlers anyway and there was proposal to swap Belgian Wallonia for Alsace)

my scenario is a neutral Italy attempts an opportunistic grab for Vichy French territory after the British attack (instead of OTL invasion of Greece.)

and/or continued British attacks (with neutral Italy the Vichy regime becomes target)
 
The French Submarine Force

Originally Posted by Imladrik
French Submarine were not made for the atlantic, they were made for the mediterannean. Only a few of them were oceanic submarines. The French Navy had no reason to build huge numbers of oceanic submarines because their planned enemies were the Kriegsmarine (easily dealt with with the help of the british) and the Regia Marina (which was restricted to the Mediterranean.

Which means the Germans don't have to transfer U-boats to the Mediterranean and therefore concentrate them on the Atlantic.

I got my copy of Submarines of World War Two by Ermnio Bagansco out and according to him:

"On 1st September, 1939, the fleet numbered 77 boats commissioned: 36 were under construction or ready to be laid down, so that the total available within a few years would have exceeded one hundred, thereby achieving parity with Italy, whom France considered her direct oponent at sea. Of the commissioned boats, 38 were ocean-going, 32 coastal, 6 minelayers and Scourf was a cruiser."

I have only skimmed through the articles on the individual classes, but the newest ocean-going boats seemed to have better specifications than the German Type IX ocean-going U-boat and the coastal boats seemed to be about the same as the German Type VII which IIRC made up about 75% of all the U-boats that were completed.

How many remained with Vichy in the real world and of which types, I don't know because I haven't checked.
 
thanks. very interesting points about (potential) French air power, all the focus is usually on the fleet.

they DID have a myriad of aircraft manufacturing projects together.

my speculation was, with Germany allowed bases in Tunisia, Dakar, Syria, et al, the French air force would be occupied but as you have pointed out their capacity was far greater.

There is also the army in French West Africa to consider. I haven't looked it up, but there is the possibility it is strong enough to take the British colonies in West Africa.

Gambia has had it. Sierra Leone with the Freetown naval base should be doable. Ghana and Nigeria will be harder, but if the French can take the former they have shut down the Takoradi air reinforcement route to Egypt.

If the French don't do that the British still have to guard against the possibility and that could have knock-on effects in the Middle East.

That is West African troops made up about a fifth of the British Empire land forces that took Italian East Africa (2 African, 2 Indian and one South African divisions IIRC).

If 20% fewer men delays the conquest of Italian East Africa then the Indian and South African divisions might not be available for Operation Crusader.
 
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