AHC: Wank Paraguay

[Ellis MacVey]

So, for those of you who don't know, Paraguay, especially 19th-century Paraguay, is fucking crazy.

No, really, it's fucking crazy. It simultaneously went to war with Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay despite only being a fraction of the size of either of them (with the exception of Uruguay) in the 1860s, and actually did a lot of damage before the tide of the war turned and 90% of Paraguay's male population died.

They also did a lot of other crazy things which I shall not go into depth on.

Your challenge is to wank Paraguay as much as is plausible. Not possible, just plausible. However, I want the timeline to be as fucking awesome as possible and have as much badass Paraguayan butt-kicking as possible.

 

[EnvarKadri]

Have it avoid the guasu war by having the pro paraguay Uruguayan government not be couped. Also if there is a Rosas-Brazil war paraguay can take advantage to get a better diplomatic situation.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Build up the Paraguayan Navy more. Humaita fortress wasn't good enough on its own against the latest warships, plus bigger navy gives more power projection in the La Plata basin. Otherwise they did about as well as you'd expect them to in the Triple Alliance War. To actually win they need to knock Argentina out early, and the way to do so is get more Argentine Civil Wars going.

Now ideally most or all of Mato Grosso do Sul should belong to Paraguay. This is possible because the way the rivers flow benefits Paraguay logistically. Brazil will have a lot more trouble moving armies and supplies into Mato Grosso do Sul. IIRC they tried this in the war and lost a bunch of men to disease and had to cancel the attack on Paraguay from the north. Instead of seizing Corrientes or Entre Rios or Rio Grande do Sul, they should focus on Mato Grosso as the main expansion target. Secondary gains would be the disputed lands in Misiones which also included the western parts of Santa Catarina and Parana.

Most important is foreign policy. Either Argentina or Brazil should be an ally, and despite Argentina considering Paraguay a province in rebellion most of the 19th century, geopolitically makes a better one, since they need free access of the La Plata basin to sustain their economy. It's easier to get to Paraguay from Argentina than Brazil too. Perhaps Paraguay should resolve some disputes with Argentina in their favor (i.e. Chaco). Pro-Paraguayan politicians shouldn't be too hard to find.

The Triple Alliance War will be a difficult and costly victory, but hopefully the outcome is economic advantages for Paraguay and a friendlier Argentina on the other side. Brazil and Argentina may have issues of their own for a while so Paraguay will be able to rebuild. In this time they can attract more investment since they'll be the most stable country by far in the area.

Come the 20th century Paraguay will have far more people, get some more immigration (to fill up the nice farmlands of the parts of Brazil they grabbed), and a stronger economy, so potentially Bolivia won't even bother with a war with them and international mediation can settle the Chaco dispute in their favor, without a costly war. Ideally, TTL's Argentina will have recovered and remain a stable first-world democracy (the "Hispanic Australia") so some of that prosperity will hopefully leak north. I don't expect it to be a developed country, but a GDP per capita several times higher seems doable by this point.

By avoiding an expensive war and reducing the brutal blow of their largest war, plus winning said conflict to begin with, Paraguay will be much larger, stronger, and economically powerful.

 

[Gukpard]

So, for those of you who don't know, Paraguay, especially 19th-century Paraguay, is fucking crazy.

No, really, it's fucking crazy. It simultaneously went to war with Brazil, Argentina, and Uruguay despite only being a fraction of the size of either of them (with the exception of Uruguay) in the 1860s, and actually did a lot of damage before the tide of the war turned and 90% of Paraguay's male population died.

They also did a lot of other crazy things which I shall not go into depth on.

Your challenge is to wank Paraguay as much as is plausible. Not possible, just plausible. However, I want the timeline to be as fucking awesome as possible and have as much badass Paraguayan butt-kicking as possible.

Since usually people wants a strong Bonapartistic Paraguay, I'm going with a scenario that keeps Lopez in power.

Basically instead of Both Argentina and Brazil supporting the same side of the Uruguayan civil war, the brazilian government goes for Lopez side. The argentinians seeing the tide being turned invades Uruguay violating the country neutrality and thus prompting Brazil and Paraguay to declare war on Argentina. As OTL Lopez conscript a f**kton of his population completely destroying his economy in the process but also flooding the camp absolutely to a point that while the brazilians fight a campaign pushing the argentinians and the colorados out of Uruguay, Lopez and his horde invades through the Chaco Boreal right into Salta province and goes as south as Cordoba before beginning a push towards Buenos Aires. Mitre surrenders, Brazil got a friendly government in Uruguay and Paraguay annex Chaco Boreal and the corrientes province of Argentina. The Lopez dynasty continue ruling as tyrants until the 1930s when the Chaco War happens as OTL and without the manpower losses that they suffered and keeping that... conscription system that would make the soviet union blush they flood the camp against the bolivians on a way that would make Ferdinand Schorner cry and takes the Bolivian Chaco. By 1950-on the Paraguayan borders are like that:

Paraguay turns into a dinastic republic instead of a blatant military dictatorship and Lopez family control the country, with family members having their own militias and cartels.

 

[John Fredrick Parker]

Would Paraguay have stood a more plausible chance of becoming a sustainable regional power had Argentina failed to unify (i.e. had the State of Buenos Aires maintained its independence)?

To me, that seems extremely likely. Disunited, the various Argentine elements are closer in power to Paraguay, and conflict with them is a much more manageable task. If Buenos Aires remains independent (or some level of autonomy or semi-independence - Argentine politics in the period is complicated and I don't pretend to understand it) it will, at the very least, deprive Argentina of substantial revenue from tariffs. That alone might be significant.

Interesting thought. Just a few years earlier the Federalists lost their last battle to the central government of Buenos Aires and I bet that Lopez was counting on a Argentinean civil war that did not happen. Urquiza, the caudillo of Entre Rios and former leader of the Federalists, answered to Buenos Aires' call and mobilized his army against the Paraguayans in Corrientes, but his troops mutined when they learned they would not fight with the Paraguayans, but against them.

That being said, I don't think that a different Urquiza would change the course of the war though. Buenos Aires is still capable of winning their civil war and fighting Paraguay only with the aid of Brazil.

@Lampiao I was thinking more along the lines of an 1850's PoD (maybe preventing the 1859 Battle of Celpada) keeping Argentina from uniting (even de jure), possibly keeping the Blanco Party in power in Uruguay and preventing the events that led to a Brazil led dog pile on Paraguay.

If it helps, we can also prevent Solano Lopez from succeeding his father in 1862 (maybe by having him die in that 1859 incident).

Having spoke before on preventing Argentine reunification, does anyone more knowledgeable about the period have any idea for a specific PoD? Would think something after the secession of Buenos Aires (1852), but prior to the Battle of Cepeda (1859), would be best.

And aside from how Paraguay might have been a more powerful country in (southern) South America, I'd think the effects would be just as intersting. For example, if Brazil had to face the Paraguayan military alone, without Argentina, sometime in the 1869's and 70's, and managed to suffer territorial or other loss as a result, how would that effect the sizeable empire? For example, would the path toward Brazilian abolition be affected?

And, just because:

 

[Ellis MacVey]

And, just because:

I have that comic saved on my phone. Paraguay is fucking awesome.

 

[Queeney]

Would this be wanky enough?

 

[Gukpard]

The descriptions of the paraguayan focuses on Kaiserreich saying "Glorious Paraguay" or how Asunción is the best capital in the world even moar than Berlim are based on Lopez ultranationalism and a "academic meme" of the 1970s brazilian marxists that claimed that Paraguay was developed on the time of the war, when in reality their soldiers barely had boots.

 

[unprincipled peter]

Organize the army so there is a layer of capable officers. Lopez was paranoid, so he never developed an efficient army. Such an army could beat first one foe, then another. In the triple alliance war, IF Argentina had been knocked out early, Paraguay could then turn and face a slow mobilizing Brazil.

Argentina and Brazil have no reason to ally with Paraguay, so P has to go it alone. P has to go through A to get to any part of Brazil that will cause B to quit. Neither Brazil nor Argentina want to see the rise of a strong/enlarged Paraguay, so either is likely to come to the aid of the other if the other is getting stomped. Still, it would be best if Paraguay could concentrate on one foe for a while before having to worry about the other. Brazil was stable, but perhaps Argentina could be destabilized, allowing for an opportunity.

It's possible to wank Paraguay, but it starts with an efficient military

 

[Gukpard]

I was also going to add "Hitler level unwillingness to surrender".

 

[juanml82]

Since usually people wants a strong Bonapartistic Paraguay, I'm going with a scenario that keeps Lopez in power.

Basically instead of Both Argentina and Brazil supporting the same side of the Uruguayan civil war, the brazilian government goes for Lopez side. The argentinians seeing the tide being turned invades Uruguay violating the country neutrality and thus prompting Brazil and Paraguay to declare war on Argentina. As OTL Lopez conscript a f**kton of his population completely destroying his economy in the process but also flooding the camp absolutely to a point that while the brazilians fight a campaign pushing the argentinians and the colorados out of Uruguay, Lopez and his horde invades through the Chaco Boreal right into Salta province and goes as south as Cordoba before beginning a push towards Buenos Aires. Mitre surrenders, Brazil got a friendly government in Uruguay and Paraguay annex Chaco Boreal and the corrientes province of Argentina. The Lopez dynasty continue ruling as tyrants until the 1930s when the Chaco War happens as OTL and without the manpower losses that they suffered and keeping that... conscription system that would make the soviet union blush they flood the camp against the bolivians on a way that would make Ferdinand Schorner cry and takes the Bolivian Chaco. By 1950-on the Paraguayan borders are like that:

Paraguay turns into a dinastic republic instead of a blatant military dictatorship and Lopez family control the country, with family members having their own militias and cartels.

Argentina wasn't in any shape to invade Uruguay and risk war with Brazil at that time. Mitre was trying his best to keep the country united. A defensive war against Paraguay, in which victory was to be expected, served him for that. An offensive war in which victory isn't assured and which would include the Brazilian navy blockading Buenos Aires wouldn't do it.

Honestly, the best wank is to avoid wars. None of the lands Paraguay can realistically grab provide them with any significant economic benefit. So, sit tight, and take advantage of both the Argentine constitution to sail their goods into the River Plate for export across the world and their inland location to avoid gunboat diplomacy. Invest in education. Turn their ironworks into steel mills and sell it to the nascent Argentine and Brazilian industries as the 20th century progresses, keep building up their river merchant fleet and hydro power for cheap electricity and let the economy grow and grow. Prop up their cannabis, cocaine and tobacco sectors, to export to Argentina and Brazil. Become a fiscal haven before Uruguay does. If European powers threaten Argentina and Brazil into putting tariffs in Paraguayan goods, smuggle them across the border. Boring from a storytelling perspective, but effective.

 

[Gukpard]

Argentina wasn't in any shape to invade Uruguay and risk war with Brazil at that time. Mitre was trying his best to keep the country united. A defensive war against Paraguay, in which victory was to be expected, served him for that. An offensive war in which victory isn't assured and which would include the Brazilian navy blockading Buenos Aires wouldn't do it.

Honestly, the best wank is to avoid wars. None of the lands Paraguay can realistically grab provide them with any significant economic benefit. So, sit tight, and take advantage of both the Argentine constitution to sail their goods into the River Plate for export across the world and their inland location to avoid gunboat diplomacy. Invest in education. Turn their ironworks into steel mills and sell it to the nascent Argentine and Brazilian industries as the 20th century progresses, keep building up their river merchant fleet and hydro power for cheap electricity and let the economy grow and grow. Prop up their cannabis, cocaine and tobacco sectors, to export to Argentina and Brazil. Become a fiscal haven before Uruguay does. If European powers threaten Argentina and Brazil into putting tariffs in Paraguayan goods, smuggle them across the border. Boring from a storytelling perspective, but effective.

The best way to win is to not play, but since this requests a wank, the only way I could see Paraguay crushing Argentina is having argentina be a enemy of Brazil and Paraguay taking use of that.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

Instead of Lopez, make the leader of Paraguay a Frederick the Great level military genius?

Can they be wanked enough so that they annex Uruguay and Rio Grande de Sul and get a seacoast?

 

[Gukpard]

Instead of Lopez, make the leader of Paraguay a Frederick the Great level military genius?

Can they be wanked enough so that they annex Uruguay and Rio Grande de Sul and get a seacoast?

The civilian population of Rio Grande do Sul was almost entirely armed, they had a warrior culture and the state in general always had a great garrison since it borders Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay, so I don't think that Paraguay would be able to occupy it. Maybe if they pull some kind of nomadic migration and leave paraguay and invade the Rio Grande do Sul we could have them taking over the area, however.

 

[juanml82]

The best way to win is to not play, but since this requests a wank, the only way I could see Paraguay crushing Argentina is having argentina be a enemy of Brazil and Paraguay taking use of that.

But what's a wank? A weakened Paraguay which burnt its economy and an entire generation in order to take some of OTL Argentina's poorest provinces? Or a territorially smaller Paraguay (but still bigger than IOTL) but a lot richer?

 

[Gukpard]

But what's a wank? A weakened Paraguay which burnt its economy and an entire generation in order to take some of OTL Argentina's poorest provinces? Or a territorially smaller Paraguay (but still bigger than IOTL) but a lot richer?

Both I believe. You have to consider that the draconian conscription measures were enacted during peace time, so even if Paraguay does not goes to war, they are still going to have their growth hindered to keep that massive army.

 

[Gabingston]

PARAGUAY STRONK!

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

But what's a wank? A weakened Paraguay which burnt its economy and an entire generation in order to take some of OTL Argentina's poorest provinces? Or a territorially smaller Paraguay (but still bigger than IOTL) but a lot richer?

You have to consider that the provinces that Paraguay wanted basically controlled the interior route of the Plata Basin, which would certainly give a beautiful arable land and increase in the commercial flow, a big problem for a country landlocked like Paraguay

 

[Talus I of Dixie]

You have to consider that the provinces that Paraguay wanted basically controlled the interior route of the Plata Basin, which would certainly give a beautiful arable land and increase in the commercial flow, a big problem for a country landlocked like Paraguay

REMEMBERING that Paraguay with the provinces would no longer depend on foreign aid for international trade

 

[juanml82]

You have to consider that the provinces that Paraguay wanted basically controlled the interior route of the Plata Basin, which would certainly give a beautiful arable land and increase in the commercial flow, a big problem for a country landlocked like Paraguay

The only provinces Paraguay would have been looking at are Corrientes and northern Santa Fe, and they wouldn't have been able to keep them in the long term. Realistically, they'd get Chaco, maybe northern Santiago del Estero and Misiones. It doesn't add much.

The 1853 Argentine Constitution granted (and continues to grant) every country in the world free passage through Argentina's interior rivers. That's worth the paper it's written in if Argentina is hostile, but it's law if Argentina isn't hostile. So it's really best for Paraguay not to risk war against a more populated and richer country and take advantage of that, while at the same time fortifying its borders and keeping a strong army and fluvial fleet so the Argentine leaders don't get any ideas.

EDIT: Keep in mind they'd need to conquer the city of Buenos Aires to get unimpeded access to the open seas - and that's still not enough because hostile fleets can and did blockade Buenos Aires. They are not getting that far along a heavily (for the era) populated territory.