AHC: Wank Labour as much as possible

[Commissar From Kiev]

This AH challenge is simple: make the British Labour Party as successful as is possible, short of ASBs. If your scenario requires one or two improbable events to work, I'll accept that, so long as there's a chance it could've happened.

Anyway, fire away!

 

[shiftygiant]

Short answer: Kill or fragment the Conservative Party.

Long answer: The Conservative Party suffers a split in 1972/73 over the Rhodesia issue, forcing Heath to either call an election at the loss of confidence in his own Party from the Monday Club, or be dismissed by the Queen when it becomes apparent that he cannot operate a functioning Goverment. Wilson is invited as Leader of the Opposition to form a Goverment (only if Heath is dismissed), and wins the snap the election via a hung Parliament and enters a coalition with the Liberals (you would of course need someone other than Thorpe, perhaps Richard Wainwright) until he calls a second snap election and gains a workable majority. The key here is that The Conservatives don't reconcile and merge back together; perhaps an EEC Referendum could lead to the wedge being driven further. The split Conservatives become their own party, whilst the mainstream Conservatives struggle to gain support, drifting towards the Center, and gets into bed with a pragmatic alliance with the Liberals. Labour establishes itself as the Primary ruling Party of Britain, and is able to hold onto continuous power until the 90's, and enters and exits power throughout the the 00's and 10's.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

Short answer: Kill or fragment the Conservative Party.

Long answer: The Conservative Party suffers a split in 1972/73 over the Rhodesia issue, forcing Heath to either call an election at the loss of confidence in his own Party from the Monday Club, or be dismissed by the Queen when it becomes apparent that he cannot operate a functioning Goverment. Wilson is invited as Leader of the Opposition to form a Goverment (only if Heath is dismissed), and wins the snap the election via a hung Parliament and enters a coalition with the Liberals (you would of course need someone other than Thorpe, perhaps Richard Wainwright) until he calls a second snap election and gains a workable majority. The key here is that The Conservatives don't reconcile and merge back together; perhaps an EEC Referendum could lead to the wedge being driven further. The split Conservatives become their own party, whilst the mainstream Conservatives struggle to gain support, drifting towards the Center, and gets into bed with a pragmatic alliance with the Liberals. Labour establishes itself as the Primary ruling Party of Britain, and is able to hold onto continuous power until the 90's, and enters and exits power throughout the the 00's and 10's.

That's a really cool idea!

Thanks for the suggestion. BTW, by the Rhodesia issue, I presume you mean that the moderate and right-wing Tories would be supporting opposing sides in Rhodesia's independence?

 

[shiftygiant]

That's a really cool idea!

Thanks for the suggestion. BTW, by the Rhodesia issue, I presume you mean that the moderate and right-wing Tories would be supporting opposing sides in Rhodesia's independence?

Yes; you have the Monday Club Conservatives and aligned Conservatives who are Pro-Rhodesia, supporting the White-Rule Goverment and wanting to see Rhodesia recognized and supported. Then you have Heath and his aligned Moderates/Reformers who want to continue their non-recognition. The trick would be to make the Monday Clubbers blink first- Heath did IoTL and attempted to implement a peace agreement that failed for reasons outlined here. If the Monday Club blink and withdraw as they threatened, you are looking at a loss of roughly somewhere between 50-70 Seats, which would effectively cripple the Heath Goverment and force either a snap election or dismissal, and if the Monday Club fails to reconcile with the mainstream Conservative Party, Labour is assured Politician domination for the next two decades.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

Yes; you have the Monday Club Conservatives and aligned Conservatives who are Pro-Rhodesia, supporting the White-Rule Goverment and wanting to see Rhodesia recognized and supported. Then you have Heath and his aligned Moderates/Reformers who want to continue their non-recognition. The trick would be to make the Monday Clubbers blink first- Heath did IoTL and attempted to implement a peace agreement that failed for reasons outlined here. If the Monday Club blink and withdraw as they threatened, you are looking at a loss of roughly somewhere between 50-70 Seats, which would effectively cripple the Heath Goverment and force either a snap election or dismissal, and if the Monday Club fails to reconcile with the mainstream Conservative Party, Labour is assured Politician domination for the next two decades.

Ah, so the Monday Club makes good on their threat to withdraw, leaving Heath's Tories short of 50-odd seats. A snap election would likely be called, with Labour making gains while Heath's Tories and the Monday Club Tories (probably calling themselves 'Independent Conservatives') splitting the vote.

BTW who would be a good de facto leader for the mutinous right-wingers?

 

[Gonzo]

Ah, so the Monday Club makes good on their threat to withdraw, leaving Heath's Tories short of 50-odd seats. A snap election would likely be called, with Labour making gains while Heath's Tories and the Monday Club Tories (probably calling themselves 'Independent Conservatives') splitting the vote.

BTW who would be a good de facto leader for the mutinous right-wingers?

Alan Clark, Teddy Taylor, Enoch Powell, Edward du Cann? (I know Powell wasn't a Monday Club member OTL - but he was a supporter.)

 

[shiftygiant]

Alan Clark, Teddy Taylor, Enoch Powell, Edward du Cann? (I know Powell wasn't a Monday Club member OTL - but he was a supporter.)

Taylor or du Cann would be the most likely; Powell would, at this point, already starting to make his moves towards the UUP, though if he went in with the Monday Clubbers it wouldn't be unlikely for him to eventually become leader (What were Powell's views on Rhodesia? I imagine this would be a factor). Clark is a bit too Junior, though I imagine he would make Leadership by the late 80's/90's.

 

[GeographyDude]

As a Yank,

to me, it's all immediate post-WWII economics.

 

[Comisario]

Taylor or du Cann would be the most likely; Powell would, at this point, already starting to make his moves towards the UUP, though if he went in with the Monday Clubbers it wouldn't be unlikely for him to eventually become leader (What were Powell's views on Rhodesia? I imagine this would be a factor). Clark is a bit too Junior, though I imagine he would make Leadership by the late 80's/90's.

Powell wanted Britain out of Rhodesia so the people of Rhodesia could decide their government for themselves. Whether this excluded blacks or not wasn't the issue for Powell: the real issue was, what he called, "post-imperial nostalgia" and how Wilson was acting like an imperialist in trying to dictate to Ian Smith.

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

Taylor or du Cann would be the most likely; Powell would, at this point, already starting to make his moves towards the UUP, though if he went in with the Monday Clubbers it wouldn't be unlikely for him to eventually become leader (What were Powell's views on Rhodesia? I imagine this would be a factor). Clark is a bit too Junior, though I imagine he would make Leadership by the late 80's/90's.

I'll look up Taylor and du Cann.

After a bit of thought, I might make an infobox for the 1972 snap election.

 

[Prussian1871]

John Major bungs up the Maastricht Treaty and causes a devastating rift in the Tories. Tony Blair then promptly sends the Conservative Party to its grave.

 

[Comisario]

Another possibility for breaking the Tories and wanking the Labour Party is having Baldwin win the 1929 general election. After that, Labour is very likely to win an election in the 1931-1934 period and take over from the damaged Conservatives.

Baldwin will likely be knifed by the tariff reformers, thus causing a split in the party and possibly seeing a free trade splinter or tariff reform splinter (depending on who succeeds Baldwin). Some Liberals will join the Tories/free traders in opposing Labour, others from both sides of the opposition will never agree to co-operation, and the protectionists will likely stand alone no matter what. With that, Labour will be in power during an international economic recovery and facing a disunited opposition for another ten years at the very least. In that time, Labour would have so fundamentally changed Britain as to make them the "natural party of government".

 

[Commissar From Kiev]

Another possibility for breaking the Tories and wanking the Labour Party is having Baldwin win the 1929 general election. After that, Labour is very likely to win an election in the 1931-1934 period and take over from the damaged Conservatives.

Baldwin will likely be knifed by the tariff reformers, thus causing a split in the party and possibly seeing a free trade splinter or tariff reform splinter (depending on who succeeds Baldwin). Some Liberals will join the Tories/free traders in opposing Labour, others from both sides of the opposition will never agree to co-operation, and the protectionists will likely stand alone no matter what. With that, Labour will be in power during an international economic recovery and facing a disunited opposition for another ten years at the very least. In that time, Labour would have so fundamentally changed Britain as to make them the "natural party of government".

That could be interesting

 

[shiftygiant]

As a Yank,

to me, it's all immediate post-WWII economics.

The economic issue fails to confront the main blockade that would allow a wank of Labour; The Conservatives and the stagnation of Goverment. For this, we have to look to the most successful Labour Prime Minister, Tony Blair, and the most beloved, Attlee, as well as the 18 Blue Years of Thatcher-Major.

The issue that faced Attlee in 1951 was not that Labour was unpopular. In fact, it was a very close election in which Attlee actually won the popular vote. The issue for him was that his Leadership was stagnating, with most of his loyal Cabinet that he had been relying upon since the war dead, dying, or retiring, the Conservatives fielded young MP's, a sense that the Goverment had completed what it had promised in 1945, and of course the swing you get when you call an election a year after the last.

Both Blair and Thatcher were successful because of their opposition, which represented the old ideology (Foot, Hague), and by blase Leaders who, whilst whittling down the Majority, were unable to make the tree fall (Kinnock, Michael). The Government's ultimetly failed because the Leadership stagnated and the backbenches revolted (Thatcher facing two Leadership Challenges, Blair being pressured to leave after promising), and their successors caved in due to a unified opposition that appealed directly to the voters (Blair himself, and Cameron). What you need to do for a successful perpetuation is to remove the unity in Opposition.

Attlee didn't fail because of an economic crisis, like Major (Black Wednesday) or Brown; he ultimetly failed because the people didn't desire him (this was apparent by 1955). It wasn't an economic issue either- the economy in 1951 was fine, if a little rough.

Major's victory in 1992 forms the most telling rule of British Politics- as long as the Opposition is either divided or unattractive, the Incumbent will survive. And at it's core, to have Labour win, you would have to present an opposition divided, and/or an opposition that the people find unattractive. Unless the economy is a complete disaster, as it was for Heath and Callaghan, it would factor very little.

 

[Pericles]

Blair was the most successful Labour leader in history, electorally, no contest. Labour got over 400 seats twice in a row and had big majorities three times in a row. They lost when the opposition got its act together, Labour crumbled on its internal divisions, the economy slumped and genrally thre was a whole lot of bad luck for Labour. To wank Labour the New Labour approach needs to be sustained and the opposition needs to remain ineffectual and divided.

To do it best you;d need to rip the Tories apart. they came pretty close to that with the formation of the Pro-Euro Conservative Party. Let's say that Clark and Heseltine and other important Europhiles, seeing no future in Hague's Tory party, join the Pro-Euro Conservative Party in 1999, and in 2000 it forms an alliance with the LibDems and they run several fusion tickets and use tactical voting.

2001 election sees Labour get about 430 seats, a majority of over 200 seats. The Tories collapse even further, getting about 120 seats while the LibDems get about 70 seats and the Pro-Euro Conservative Party gets a few more than 10.

The LibDems become much stronger, and Kennedy decides to target the Tories in 2005 in the hope of destroying them, avoiding catering to the left in the hopes of winning over Tory voters. A hollowed-out Tory caucus may keep IDS narrowly and becomes more and more divided. In 2005 Labour gets a majority of over 100 seats, losing many seats due to Iraq but still getting a huge win. The LibDems and the Tories are both clustered around 25%, and the LibDems get about 80-ish seats while the Tories return to around 150-160 seats.

Blair has a renewed mandate and is able to dispel challenges to his authority. The Tories opt for change but due to butterflies get David Davis instead of Cameron. Kennedy stays LibDen leader. Blair stays on until 2009, when he resigns and Brown takes the helm. Brown calls a snap election and voters opt for 'economic whiz' Brown. Labour gets 38% of the vote, the Tories get 29% and the LibDems get 23%. The seat count is 65-ish for the LibDems, less than 200 but more than 180 for the Tories and about 370 seats for Labour.

Brown manages to lead Britain through the recession, and begins to implement more timid deficit reduction measures. Labour heads into 2014 still relatively popular, and Davis is still Tory leader. Many voters do want change though and don't particularly like Brown. the election is held before the Scottish referendum. 2014 is close but the New labour formula comes out triumphant once more, with Labour winning by the skin of its teeth with 36.5% of the vote against 33.5% for the Tories. Labour forms a coalition with the LibDems and Gordon Brown retired in 2015, making David Miliband the PM.

Polls show the Tories with a slight lead now but there is no sign of a 1997-landslide. Tony Blair, despite his flaws, did one big thing. He made Labour the party of government.

 

[Ingsoc]

MY WET DREAM

That's just perfection.

 

[Pericles]

That's just perfection.

Ah, thank you! Somebody should make a TL of these scenarios(use my one).

 

[RyanF]

Think a pretty good attempt was just made in the Presidents and PM Lists by Mumby.

 

[Pericles]

Think a pretty good attempt was just made in the Presidents and PM Lists by Mumby.

Seems interesting but I think since Blair was so successful electorally for so long we should look to wank Tony Blair and New Labour. Avoiding the Iraq War would work too at producing a huge 2005 majority, narrow victory in 2009 election after Blair's retirement and a 2014 hung parliament. In the early 2000s the Tories could be tipped apart, they were very weak. That's why I think my idea is the best.

 

[Politibrit]

One scenario would be to have Labour win in 1951 or keep much more of their majority in 1950. I dont have a great deal of knowledge of the workings of the Conservative Party at that time, but I think if you could find a way for Churchill to stop being their leader, and the party does not accept the post war consensus, or better yet, splits over it with a less highly esteemed leader to keep the party together, then Labour could keep much of there support from 1945 in 1950.

Attlee then hands the reigns over to Gaitskell toward the end of the next term, who pursues a moderate left approach, and is able to do so due to the large majority he has minimizing the threat of a back bench rebellion. A strong economy and a divided opposition allows him to get reelected twice, before handing over the reigns to another popular figure like Wilson or Callaghan who is able to get them to scrape through for another term in the second half of the 1960s. The Tories have power for the 1970s, but fail to address the problems of OTL, and get kicked out after a decade in office in a landslide by a Labour party led by Denis Healey that is more moderate after decades of Gaitskellism. Having adopted policies similar to the SDP of OTL, they reign in the Unions and reform industry, and the oil money and a recovering economy allows them to keep power throughout the 1980s before losing in the early 1990s. Also, by some good fortune, they are not in office for 2008, and are now the current government. Today, they would have been in power for all but 20/25 years of the 70 years of the post war era.