AHC: United States of Greater Austria

[Zeller]

Let's imagine that the proposal of the United States of Greater Austria is accepted.

What POD(s) is/are needed to make it happen?
What short- and long-term implications would it have?
Would it butterfly away Austria's entry into WWI?
Or would WWI create a perfect opportunity for rebellions?

 

[Olligarchy]

It would be interesting, but the formation would be mostly pointless unless Austria either wins or emerges at least mostly intact from the Great War. As for your specific questions that I can at least attempt to answer:

What short- and long-term implications would it have?
Austria-Hungary would be more stable, though later on some of those nations might still clamour for independence.

Would it butterfly away Austria's entry into WWI?
Only if the Archduke isn't assassinated.

Or would WWI create a perfect opportunity for rebellions?
Depends on how good the life is under the USA (pun intended), and a whole slew of factors including nationalism and how the war would be going on at the time.

 

[Zeller]

It would be interesting, but the formation would be mostly pointless unless Austria either wins or emerges at least mostly intact from the Great War.

Yes, but they didn't see it coming when the idea emerged.


What would prevent the Archduke from being assasinated? Maybe something simple as he catches a bad cold and doesn't feel like leaving his castle?
But then the Great War would be delayed. What could be the new trigger?

 

[jimmy blackjack]

I don't see the Hungarian gentry and large swaths of the people reacting well to this in any way. It might even result in a civil war. After Trianon, there was almost no chance to fight back between the strife of the war, the Romanian occupation and Kun's terror. This is an entirely different scenario.

It would probably stabilize the country eventually but probably only in the long term. In the short term it would create massive instability, thereby inviting the other foreign powers to attempt to "influence events".

Maybe if we could ASB a 20th century history of Hungary book into their hands they might think differently, but I really don't see this ending well.

 

[Marko]

A surviving, well functioning with content peoples A-H/Habsburg monarchy requiers a PoD either during the reign of Maria Theresa or Joseph II at the latest.

 

[jimmy blackjack]

A surviving, well functioning with content peoples A-H/Habsburg monarchy requiers a PoD either during the reign of Maria Theresa or Joseph II at the latest.

Agreed, I don't see this happening smoothly anytime post Napoleonic Wars, and certainly no time after '48.

 

[Zeller]

I don't see the Hungarian gentry and large swaths of the people reacting well to this in any way. It might even result in a civil war.

Yep, they didn't react well to the proposal either
Ironically enough, the idea came from a Hungarian revolutionary.

A surviving, well functioning with content peoples A-H/Habsburg monarchy requiers a PoD either during the reign of Maria Theresa or Joseph II at the latest.

What exactly would either of those PoDs be? I would like to hear more.

 

[jimmy blackjack]

Yep, they didn't react well to the proposal either
Ironically enough, the idea came from a Hungarian revolutionary.

I just looked this up, and holy shit, KOSSUTH proposed this!?

Well I'll be damned.

 

[Marko]

Yep, they didn't react well to the proposal either
Ironically enough, the idea came from a Hungarian revolutionary.


What exactly would either of those PoDs be? I would like to hear more.

The atempted political centralisation, redrawing of internal borders and germanisation have to be removed to keep both south slavs and magyars not feeling threatened. It was this feeling of threat that gave rise to nationalism as strong as it was. Neither magyars or croats had a problem with Habsburg rulers per see but had a problem if these Haburgs started to act as germans which they were.

 

[OS fan]

In hindsight, it would be a better solution than many tin-pot dictators between the wars and Communism afterwards.

But I doubt that the ancient Habsburg empire could have survived the necessary operation, so to speak.

Also: How exactly would the new state be organized? Which powers would go to the federal level, which ones to the different states?

 

[Zeller]

Thanks for the thoughts, guys!

I don't really know how it would've been organized
But let's do it ourselves! What would've been the best power-distribution in order to achieve the best stability possible?

 

[jimmy blackjack]

Thanks for the thoughts, guys!

I don't really know how it would've been organized
But let's do it ourselves! What would've been the best power-distribution in order to achieve the best stability possible?

I've actually been working on something similar to this lately, but it's vaguely ASBish, so I'm not entirely certain what would actually work.

I have Vienna set up as a federal district similar to Washington DC. That way the capital of Austria won't be the same as the entire Empire. I moved the capital of Austria to Linz.

Each district of the Empire has it's own parliament, with a PM elected by the people and a governor appointed by the emperor. There is also an empire-wide parliament situated in Vienna, but I haven't worked out all the details on that one.
Slightly problematically, this scenario assumes that there would be more of a democratic component to the Empire, with the Kaiser stepping into the role of a constitutional monarch, which I really, really don't see happening in the real world.

Is there anyone that's slightly better versed in Austrian history that might suggest plausible PODs and people that we could butterfly into power at the right point?

 

[Lt.Gen 767]

A quick look at the Wikipedia page of Joseph II tells me that he was a reformer and he died relatively young (49) without any children. He died when Hungary was in rebellion. Maybe if he lives longer he could substantially weaken the power of the Hungarian aristocracy and maybe even introduce some rights for the commoners. Fast forward to an analogue of the '48 rebellions the current Austrian Emperor could introduce a degree of federalism and decentralization which, over time creates our United States of Greater Austria.
To do it with a POD after 1900 is much harder. Nationalism is a powerful force, the Hungarians are blocking any reform that would reduce their power and any WWI analogue will cause the empire to collapse. Maybe if the Emperor decides that federalism is the only way to save the empire at the start of the century and the Germans and non-Hungarian minorities back him up it might happen. However even if that does happen there would be a strong possibility that the Hungarians would rebel and then the other European great powers might decide that Austria-Hungary should be broken up.

 

[jimmy blackjack]

A quick look at the Wikipedia page of Joseph II tells me that he was a reformer and he died relatively young (49) without any children. He died when Hungary was in rebellion. Maybe if he lives longer he could substantially weaken the power of the Hungarian aristocracy and maybe even introduce some rights for the commoners. Fast forward to an analogue of the '48 rebellions the current Austrian Emperor could introduce a degree of federalism and decentralization which, over time creates our United States of Greater Austria.
To do it with a POD after 1900 is much harder. Nationalism is a powerful force, the Hungarians are blocking any reform that would reduce their power and any WWI analogue will cause the empire to collapse. Maybe if the Emperor decides that federalism is the only way to save the empire at the start of the century and the Germans and non-Hungarian minorities back him up it might happen. However even if that does happen there would be a strong possibility that the Hungarians would rebel and then the other European great powers might decide that Austria-Hungary should be broken up.

You're right, he definitely looks like our man. We just need to make sure that Metternich doesn't get his hooks into him.
Unfortunately a POD with Joseph II removes this from my area of knowledge, which is generally from '48 on, so I'm not likely to be of much more use.
Honestly, a POD after 1900 is impossible. I've tried like hell to get one that results in the USGA post 1848 and it always seems tenuous at best. Even if we knock off Uncle Josef there is no way in hell that the Hungarians would allow it at that late of a date.

 

[jimmy blackjack]

He died when Hungary was in rebellion.

Also, this covers A LOT of Hungarian history. It's almost more of a national pastime than water polo.

 

[Lt.Gen 767]

no wayin hell that the Hungarians would allow it at that late of a date.

That really is the biggest problem in regards to creating a USGA after the creation of Austria-Hungary: The Hungarians will never willingly accept it and any attempt to force them to would most likely tear the empire apart. Therefore I think that it would be easiest to go straight from the post 1806 Austrian Empire to a federated state with equal rights for all nationalities. This also needs to be achieved before the late 19th century when nationalism is too powerful and the radicals in the non-German nationalities would only be satisfied with independence. The best way to manage all this would be to have a series of good reform minded Emperors/ministers in the early and mid-19th century.

 

[Keb]

A surviving, well functioning with content peoples A-H/Habsburg monarchy requiers a PoD either during the reign of Maria Theresa or Joseph II at the latest.

I'd argue a PoD as late as the 1820s could achieve it. Have Metternich remain in charge, avoid Kolowrat's entry into the cabinet and have the Emperor bend when Metternich advises that Ferdinand by bypassed when inheriting (it could be at any point, Metternich brought the issue up, repeatedly). Without Kolowrat the regency council (although for Franz Joseph, rather than Ferdinand) could both be official and actually work (well, to be fair, it not working OTL was as much Metternich's fault, but still) which basically does put Metternich in charge of the monarchy.

It won't be pretty, but the conservatives had some ideas on splitting the monarchy into semi-federal, semi-autonomus crownlands. It's not the USGA, not by a long-shot, but it could lead to it over time. A long time, with a lot of potential issues along the way, but it's one option.

After that ... can't really think of a PoD. Certainly not one post 1900.

 

[Hörnla]

The Popovici-proposal this is drawn from is probably too idealistic to have a good chance of prosection.

A more clear cut federation could be much more suitable. The POD for this would be 1867 or shortly afterwards. FJ would have to work out a clear Federal Constitution which is NOT to be renegotiated every 10 years. Then, not only establish a Hungarian Crown, but additionally a Bohemian one (add Upper Hungary=Slovakia) and a Croatian one (I am not sure under which Crown to place the Krain here). Autonomy to Galicia similar as in OTL. Autonomy and special economical concessions to Trieste (i.e. bribe the Italians there).

Therefore, you would have four "ruling" nationalities: Germans, Hungarians, Czechs, Croats. The Polish placated as long as the partition is a fact (and the Polish in AH by far the best-off, politically). Plus the Jewish element as a stabilizing factor.

Add to that a simple law: every officer, everybody who wishes to be enjoy his passive franchise, and every employee of the state above the lowest rank needs to be certified as speaking two of the main imperial languages fluently and basics of a third one. The certificates are being administered by educational institutions of the speakers of this language group (i.e. the Czech certificates are handed out by the Czech University of Prague, e.g.).

You would have a general level of understanding, force the Germans to learn more, and establish German firmly as a lingua france because it would be the first or second choice as a foreign language to most.


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BTW, Joseph II is not your guy, I assure you. He is enlightened, yes, but overeager, basically antagonizing everyone, Germanocentric and Centralistic.

His successor Leopold, who died after only a two year reign, is much more realistic and also even more liberal. Beforehands, he ruled somewhere in Italy (Tuscany IIRC) and did really well there.

 

[KuK]

To make this happen would've most likely had to happen post 1848 with people other than Schwartzenburg coming to power. Initially there was promise of a central parliament but that fell through when FJ issued the Sylvester Patent, establishing an absolute monarchy.

But the thing is, with Austria, they had to rely on legitimacy based on the hereditary nature of monarchy. Hence the idea of USGA would be flying completely in the face of this. It would have just given rights based on what ethnicity you were and it would've just made the empire all the more fragmented. What needed to be done were more reforms like what were done in Bukovina to guarantee that ethnicities over a certain threshold had access to government documents and schooling in their desired language through secondary school. It created a much more pluralistic and stable society. Unlike that of Bohemia where everyone was at each other's throats since Czechs didn't think German should be taught in the region and Germans thought Czech shouldn't be taught since it was so minor.

So keeping with the idea of a more federal than dualistic monarchy, I would propose having a congressional type system where each hereditary region of the monarchy was represented in a federal congress that was very states rights heavy. So like the County of Tyrol and the Mark of Moravia be represented as states in a congress. This could diffuse the ethnic relations to much smaller, manageable levels. This would likely have to have a POC around 1848 or 1867 when there was a lot of clamoring in the government. It would've also appealed a lot more to the Habsburgs themselves since they were so vehemently against nationalism.

 

[Hörnla]

KuK, you do your Name Justice. Not a Bad concept either.