AHC: The wankest possible Madagascar

[TheLobby]

What would your scenario be? Here's mine:

2 PoDs: Ranavalona I, who brought Madagascar into decades of isolation in OTL, does not succeed Radama I in 1828. France places all its attention on colonizing another region of the Indian Ocean (like Australia) and deals with the Merina monarchy more as equals, in order to make it a rampart against British imperialism.

Rakotobe, the designated successor to Radama, who had been assassinated by Ranavalona in OTL, came to power and continued the modernization of Madagascar. He managed to complete the unification of the island (the Merinas had never succeeded in controlling the southern part of Madagascar in OTL) and then took up the naval tradition of the Sakalava and Betsimisaraka ethnic groups in order to create an embryonic navy. This Malagasy navy developed thanks to French military advisors. France even gave to Madagascar Reunion Island (a marigot devastated by cyclones in the first half of the 19th century, until sugar cane saved the island in OTL) and recognized Malagasy sovereignty over the Comoros archipelago in the 1830s/40s.

In the second half of the 19th century, modernization led to a demographic explosion in the Malagasy highlands. So the Merinas flocked to the Malagasy coast and the Mascarene Islands (including Mauritius, where the British agreed to recruit Malagasy coolies rather than Indians), and soon made up the majority of the population in these regions.

At the end of the 19th century, the opening of the Suez Canal triggered a phase of economic decline and political instability in Madagascar. The monarchy was finally overthrown and replaced by a Merina nationalist republic, which reactivated its Western xenophobia and decided to draw closer to imperial Japan. Madagascar launched a war against the British, won similarly to the Japanese against the Russians, and succeeded in annexing Mauritius and the Seychelles.

Today, Madagascar, which controls all the islands in the southwestern Indian Ocean, is a prosperous country completely oriented towards the Far East, with a relatively high HDI of between 0.75 and 0.8.

 

[walmart]

This Malagasy navy developed thanks to French military advisors. France even gave to Madagascar Reunion Island (a marigot devastated by cyclones in the first half of the 19th century, until sugar cane saved the island in OTL) and recognized Malagasy sovereignty over the Comoros archipelago in the 1830s/40s.

I don't see why France would give Madagascar Reunion Island.

At the end of the 19th century, the opening of the Suez Canal triggered a phase of economic decline and political instability in Madagascar. The monarchy was finally overthrown and replaced by a Merina nationalist republic, which reactivated its Western xenophobia and decided to draw closer to imperial Japan. Madagascar launched a war against the British, won similarly to the Japanese against the Russians, and succeeded in annexing Mauritius and the Seychelles.

There is no way Madagascar can defeat Britain. I can't think of anywhere Madagascar could expand into that they could defeat and have a strategic interest in.

 

[Cahaya Purnama]

SMH, I would argue the best situation for Madagascar is earlier unification and Islamization, which while they would still remain colonized, would be better pressed to remain intact politically. Similar to other native kingdoms in East Indies and India.

 

[TheLobby]

I don't see why France would give Madagascar Reunion Island.

There is no way Madagascar can defeat Britain. I can't think of anywhere Madagascar could expand into that they could defeat and have a strategic interest in.

It's not impossible that France wants to get rid of La Reunion. It was common practice in the 19th century to get rid of plantation colonies that had become unprofitable / a money pit. Especially since, in this scenario, France is colonizing Australia, for example, and would therefore redirect its attention to Queensland and its abundant lands for cash crops.

Of course, Madagascar can't beat the British in normal times, but let's say a twist of fate helped the Malagasy, such as the UK sinking into socialism and civil war as in Kaiserreich.

 

[Arkenfolm]

Madagascar has a 0% chance of winning a war against Britain in the 19th century no matter how many reforms and industrialisation they go through. They'd be lucky to beat a minor power like the Dutch or Portuguese.

The best chance for a more successful Madagascar is getting an Islamic adventurer to begin the unification process during earlier centuries.

SMH, I would argue the best situation for Madagascar is earlier unification and Islamization, which while they would still remain colonized, would be better pressed to remain intact politically. Similar to other native kingdoms in East Indies and India.

I agree, but I disagree they would necessarily be colonised. They're out of the way enough, but also desired by the major European powers that the solution could be to leave the island as independent to make sure the other powers don't have it.

 

[TheLobby]

SMH, I would argue the best situation for Madagascar is earlier unification and Islamization, which while they would still remain colonized, would be better pressed to remain intact politically. Similar to other native kingdoms in East Indies and India.

Madagascar would never be Islamized as Burma and Thailand never were: they have a vast hinterland far from international maritime trade.

 

[Cahaya Purnama]

Let's go to another country, Demak. Did the islamization of Majapahit happen? Yes. Did the coastal areas convert? Yes. Was a new Islamic kingdom created? Yes, Demak.

Now with a new Islamic kingdom, did that mean the population of the hinterland convert? Yes and no, Blambangan needed the Dutch to convert them to Islam (yeah, the Dutch being Calvinist chose that) not to mention there's still a lot of Hindu remmants in Java right now, and even the Muslims with a lot of syncreticism (abangan).

So did Madagascar needed wholesale conversion? Nope, they just needed a ruler who converted to Islam, and thus could integrate their kingdom to the Indian kingdom trade more closely than IOTL, which would lead to more merchantile activity. Familiar religion, laws, etc, would make the traders feel more welcomed. SMH, this is what happened when Makassar converted to Islam, and counter example to the Portuguese conquest of Malacca. The traders want safety, stability, and familiarity.

It would also mean more money, and more ready access to gunpowder weaponary. Of course whether they could use it or not was another matter.

Madagascar has a 0% chance of winning a war against Britain in the 19th century no matter how many reforms and industrialisation they go through. They'd be lucky to beat a minor power like the Dutch or Portuguese.

The best chance for a more successful Madagascar is getting an Islamic adventurer to begin the unification process during earlier centuries.

I agree, but I disagree they would necessarily be colonised. They're out of the way enough, but also desired by the major European powers that the solution could be to leave the island as independent to make sure the other powers don't have it.

Madagascar is too big to not be noticed though, and it's not even Thailand or Afghanistan which were left independent as they were in the middle of two powers.

The best thing that could happen IMHO, was the Morrocoan situation, but that needed an existing strong kingdom before colonization

 

[Arkenfolm]

Madagascar is too big to not be noticed though, and it's not even Thailand or Afghanistan which were left independent as they were in the middle of two powers.

The best thing that could happen IMHO, was the Morrocoan situation, but that needed an existing strong kingdom before colonization

It's about the size of Thailand and occupies a similar strategic position (at absolute best--there is nothing like the threat to Singapore or the Isthmus of Kra regarding Madagascar). That part of the Indian Ocean has a lot of different colonial powers active there, including Britain, France, and Germany plus the old and weak Portuguese Empire and theoretically the Dutch since it's on the route to Indonesia. Ergo, it serves nobody's advantage if the country is colonised, since Germany will not permit a Franco-British partition (or either nation taking the island by themselves) and France and Britain won't want a German partition. Both France and Britain would not trust each other enough to let the other power have it, since it's way too valuable of a target and they may not be willing to make the diplomatic concessions elsewhere necessary for it. Italy might be a player too since they tried (and failed OTL) at making an Indian Ocean empire.

Further, Madagascar TTL would be a lot better suited to resist and a lot wealthier and thus a better target for trade, meaning there's less of an incentive for an aggressive war assuming they're alright with unequal treaties and European extraterritoriality at some of their ports (which they'll have to be, because the alternative is destruction, and they may lose a war or two).

They can fight a war against Portugal and theoretically win, maybe as a proxy for Germany, maybe as Britain's way of telling Portugal to get over the Pink Map. Madagascar would be happy since it would let them play imperialism, the favourite pasttime of all civilised nations of the 19th century, on a slice of Mozambique (I'd assume Britain/Germany might want the rest).

 

[Cahaya Purnama]

The thing is, the poorer the kingdom the less they have the ability to resist. The richer the kingdom, the more they are a great prey for the colonizer. It's like you're just
out of the crocodile's mouth just to enter a lion's lair. So poor Madagascar -> Colonized, rich Madagascar -> colonized. Even with its strategic position, the German simply didn't have the power to oppose UK and France that far, Morroco was a different animal with pre-existing Germans in the area, even then the said Germans needed to be called intentionally by the German government.

Hence the only powers that matter were UK, France, and to lesser extent Portugal. Portugal was never interested in the island, did they even ever make a trading post there? Even with ITTL changes, I don't think their interest would be there, they had other pressing issues. Even if they got Madagascar, I suspect they would trade it as soon as possible for other colonies, perhaps the fabled Pink Map.

As you noted, it's in similar position at absolute best. But even a wealthier and more powerful Madagascar wouldn't reach the strategic importance of Thailand to not be colonized. The Indian Ocean route was just that important to let it under a wildcard. Similar to Yemen TBH, as it could be (and did become) bases for pirates Hence it would still need to be colonized

Now the real question, UK/France, with the country being wealthier, UK might be interested more than IOTL. France after all declared the island a protectorate after reaching an agreement with UK first, which had been the first European power to establish a lasting influence and presence. In any case, it would be colonized. Hence the real question, who would colonize Madagascar? Would it solely UK or France, or would it be both?

 

[TheLobby]

Does the scenario I proposed in my original post belong to the ASB's territory? 😕 (taking into account the explanations I subsequently gave to justify France's abandonment of La Reunion and Madagascar's annexation of some British colonies)

 

[Mildtryth]

You know, in 1833, the Sultan of Oman, when they still controlled Zanzibar, actually proposed a marriage union between Oman and Madagascar to Ranavalona I:

In 1833, prior to the partition of his realm and faced with yet another war to reign in Mombasa, the Sultan of Oman reached out to the most powerful native African Kingdom on the Eastern Coast, and a regular trading partner of Zanzibar, the Merina Kingdom of Madagascar. The offer was an extraordinary one, the Sultan would marry Madagascar’s Queen, invest his riches into her country and in return the two states would unite and the Malagasy Army would fight the Sultan’s war In Kenya.

Of course this offer was considerably more appealing to Oman than to Madagascar and it was politely refused...

Ranavalona was justly reluctant to risk the further religious upheaval of a union with a Muslim state or to send her own army off to Kenya when her realm was still so newly conquered and rebellious. But economically and politically the two countries would have benefited from a union. Or at least their nobles would.

 

[Shevek23]

Considering that early settlement of the island started around the Common Era, give or take some centuries, and that the Merina kingdom dominating the island by 1800 or so, forming its nucleus and dynasty between 1500 and 1600, and that they had to second of all, after forming Merina itself in the central interior, contend with several coastal kingdoms to the east along the coast--what if say around the beginning of the Islamic era around 700 CE, an earlier coastal kingdom formed and consolidated control there, and preempted the Merina and other possible rival powers maybe around 1000?

That would be timing more or less consistent with the powerful east coast centered realm converting to Islam as proposed, but I also don't see the necessity of their doing so actually. Suppose Islam has made rather limited inroads, a portion of the coastal peoples have indeed converted, but the ruling powers have not committed to it. Perhaps there is even a traditionalist backlash that drives Malagasy Muslims into exile or underground in favor of a consolidated state cult. That's counterproductive if we want them integrated into the Arab/Swahili dominated East African trade networks to be sure, but perhaps, going back to the OP, the eastern kingdom aims to rule a non-Muslim realm in the islands and dominate southeast African coastal trade. Then when the Portuguese show up around 1500, when they are relatively quite strong, they make a tactical alliance with this kingdom--say the Malagasy realm is on the ropes versus the Islamic conglomerate (despite the Muslims to the north being divided among themselves anyway, their collective access to bigger markets and deeper pockets have been eroding away the Malagasy power for some centuries; the place was indeed again on the cusp of switching back to toleration and thus eventual adoption of Islam). But along come the Portuguese and in alliance, with tacit Malagasy acceptance of Portuguese missionary efforts resulting in considerable, but not majority, adoption of Catholicism (in typically syncretic form, for most converts) and vice versa the Portuguese accept this is somewhat desultory and the power of the kingdom remains actually pagan. Say the monarch is nominally Christian now, but everyone knows this is pretty pro forma and he (or she!) is not much of a Catholic, and lots of powerful non-Christians are accepted as part of the normal distribution of power. The main thing for both Malagasy and the Portuguese is to overcome the Muslim power dominating the reach toward India in the north. The Portuguese don't have to conquer Madagascar, it is a safe base for them wherever the eastern coastal kingdom, by now over half a thousand years old, rules, and so they assist the monarchy in consolidating control of both coasts and also to a degree incorporating any interior peoples who haven't already been integrated before the Portuguese turned up.

The situation there is somewhat like Congo, Angola or Mozambique in the early modern centuries then, except the Madagascar kingdom centered on the east coast instead of the interior (which they now rule pretty closely) is more distant from Portugal and from the American slave plantations--as OTL but much earlier, such plantations enslaving southeast Africans arise within the island kingdom, but the bulk of the planters are Malagasy elites, and the increasingly centralized kingdom is modernizing at a remarkable pace, for a European colony. On paper the Malagasy monarchy (which over the centuries becomes completely Catholic, with Islamic conversion associated with dissent against the regime and the elites of the island and its Indian Ocean possessions also becoming Catholic) owes some kind of fealty to the Portuguese kings, but in practice they are pretty equal partners and dominate in their domain.

With the Portuguese complex having added strength versus OTL in the region, Mozambique is also considerably more developed and might, with Portuguese approval and aid, become incorporated into the island realm as well, along with stretches of coast northward preempting OTL development of Islamic Swahili powers--Zanzibar for instance might be annexed to the Malagasy Catholic realm. Perhaps they even, in a somewhat desultory but persistent trend, work their way southwest, switching flags to be nominally direct Portuguese holdings with colonists from Portugal gradually populating the Natal coast and I would thing reinforcing Portuguese hold on the Cape of Good Hope itself, being too strong for even the Dutch East India company to dislodge them--which of course massively butterflies the entire 17th century farther east in Nusantara--without their base at Cape Town held OTL, can the Dutch even get a foothold there? If not there is no Dutch East India, but a similar if more ramshackle and divided set of Portuguese bases in cahoots with regional chiefs who are in turn nominal Catholics sharing risk and profits with the Portuguese. This would also strengthen the Portuguese position in India too of course and reinforce their access to Macau and China trade.

the Protestant European nations are going to want to take as much of all this as they can, and perhaps they do prevail, but perhaps they cannot take Madagascar itself if by then the hybrid Portuguese-Malagasy Catholic regime has put down very deep roots and also enabled development of the Malagasy zone to a degree comparable to Portugal itself per capita.

In this kind of scenario I don't see any opportunity nor compelling cause to split the comfortable alliance of Portugal and Madagascar; the whole thing insofar as it can resist erosion by the Dutch, English/British and of course also France remains part of Portugal's imperial system as far as European powers are concerned.

Of course OTL, if we butterfly-net developments in Europe itself, the union of crowns with Spain might be disruptive; the Spanish might not accept some arrangements the Portuguese did and lead to a rupture of relations that in the short run allows the Malagasy kingdom to be both de facto and de jure independent and never return to Portuguese influence--taking Mozambique and whatever else they can hold versus remaining Muslim and rival European powers with them, though probably not Angola or a slowly but extensively eventually Portuguese colony in South Africa, which would remain under Spanish control and eventually a re-separated renewed Portuguese allegiance, until and unless some European power takes them instead. That would more likely be the French or British, in later centuries, but a permanently independent Madagascar might be able to hold off even these powers, perhaps returning to alliance, with no pretense of submission of the Malagasy monarchy but rather an alliance of peer powers, with Portugal again.

 

[Fatt Shea]

It's not impossible that France wants to get rid of La Reunion. It was common practice in the 19th century to get rid of plantation colonies that had become unprofitable / a money pit. Especially since, in this scenario, France is colonizing Australia, for example, and would therefore redirect its attention to Queensland and its abundant lands for cash crops.

Of course, Madagascar can't beat the British in normal times, but let's say a twist of fate helped the Malagasy, such as the UK sinking into socialism and civil war as in Kaiserreich.

Maybe it would be better to attack the Portugese in Mozambique since they were quite weak at the time

 

[HyperMuscularDemon]

Perhaps the Omanis could help unify Madagascar way earlier, and this allows Madagascar to form an empire of its own. Omani Arabs were present from the seventh century ad onwards, so it could be possible for Arab immigrants to start immigrating to Madagascar, intermingle with the native Austronesians, and create a Madagascar Sultanate which unified the whole island and expands to costal east Africa/ costal South Africa. For a bonus, Madagascar could be connected to the Golden Age of Islam, which be enormously helpful.

 

[Arkenfolm]

The thing is, the poorer the kingdom the less they have the ability to resist. The richer the kingdom, the more they are a great prey for the colonizer. It's like you're just
out of the crocodile's mouth just to enter a lion's lair. So poor Madagascar -> Colonized, rich Madagascar -> colonized.

And the richer they are, the more important it is to other countries that not a single nation colonises it for themselves. Likewise, the richer they are, the more it becomes noticed that a colonial campaign would be expensive since an invasion on the other side of the world against a nation with at least a few modern weapons and forts and local terrain advantage is costly. It helps too that said wealth is going to be derived from European investments, meaning the potential colonial nation is already getting revenue from the potential colony.

Even with its strategic position, the German simply didn't have the power to oppose UK and France that far, Morroco was a different animal with pre-existing Germans in the area, even then the said Germans needed to be called intentionally by the German government.

I don't see how you can say that when Germany had a major influence in East Africa during the Scramble for Africa. It was only through British diplomacy that appealed to Germany's interests elsewhere like Namibia and Heligoland that the German Empire ceded parts of it away. Germany is clearly a very important power regionally given they have one of the largest navies in the world and have a huge amount of power via finance and industry (especially an arms industry, necessary for modernising the military).

As you noted, it's in similar position at absolute best. But even a wealthier and more powerful Madagascar wouldn't reach the strategic importance of Thailand to not be colonized. The Indian Ocean route was just that important to let it under a wildcard. Similar to Yemen TBH, as it could be (and did become) bases for pirates Hence it would still need to be colonized

Since Madagascar has dubious strategic importance as evidenced by how Europeans and Arabs alike did not frequently interact with the island compared to mainland ports, it could easily just be bypassed by European colonialism just as Japan was. Europe could have done a lot of more to Japan in terms of colonialism, but didn't because such a campaign would be costly and Japan was fairly out of the way. Why would Madagascar not be the same if it isn't deemed important and has similar capacity to resist, or is perceived to be?