AHC: Svejk's WWI

[Snaut]

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to create a scenario where the assasination of an Austrian archduke in 1914 causes a war to break out. The alliances must be such as they were "predicted" by the protagonist of Jaroslav Hasek's novel The Good Soldier Svejk, i.e.:

Austria-Hungary, Russia, Serbia, France
vs
Germany and Ottoman Empire

Everyone else must be neutral. The PoD must be after 1871, and should be as late as possible.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

1. The 1903 coup fails and the Obrenovich remain in power and Serbia remains an Austrian client.
2. FJ dies in 1905 and FF becomes Emperor
3. FF and Will have a falling out over a hunting disagreement
4. FF and Nicky sign an alliance to bolster Nicky after 1905 and directed against Willy and the Turks.
5. FF Partitions Bosnia with the Serbian client instead of an outright annexation, Russia and Serbia approve but the Turks are livid.
6. Austria, Russia and France then sign an entente directed against Germany and the Ottomans
7. In the Balkan Wars the FF supported Serbo-Bulgarian alliance defeats the Ottoman/Greek alliance. The Serbs take Vardar Macedonia while the Bulgarians take Thessalonika and Eastern and Western Thrace to the Enos-Midia line.
8. In June 1914 FF asks his nephew Archduke Karl to visit Berlin in hopes of a rapprochement with the Germans. He is assassinated by a Gross-Deutscher nationalist while riding in an open car with Willy.
9. The July Crisis ensues. A-H demands the right to try the killer. Berlin refuses. The Triple Entente and Serbia declare war on Germany. Hoping to recoup their position in the Balkans and the Caucasus, the Ottomans join with Germany. Lacking any alliances or involvement, GB, the Benelux and Scandinavians, and Bulgaria remain neutral.