AHC: Shorten the Pacific War?

McPherson

Banned
No, the problem with shortening the Pacific War is the fleet train and warships that need to be built before the US Navy can properly move into the Western Pacific. Change all you like, but unless the addition of either is sped up somehow, then the US simply isn’t going west until late 1943. Period. The Germans did not require much of either, and thus were not much of a factor in lengthening the Pacific War.

Conventional thinking. The idea is to slow down the Japanese Freight Train.

shipping_routes_national_interest.jpg


You might want to start with that one and ask yourself, what weapon has America ignored in Plan Orange?

(They did cause problems in the South Pacific, but that was a bit of a sideshow, strategically.)

Ignoring Germans for the moment; what makes Luzon so interesting from my (air power) point of view is how central a position it occupies and how vital it was to hang on to it. Not going to happen because someone gave that job to MacArthur and Brereton. That leaves this option:

Inboard_section_of_a_fleet_type_submarine.jpg




(Incidentally, this is why the US could fight a two-front War so well; the two fronts had very different material requirements, though also a good number of similarities)

And as long as Japan continues to hold Truk, you can’t really shorten the Central Pacific campaign; the landings were determined by airfield placement, and can’t really be trimmed. Mine the harbors all you want, the US still needs to haul troops to a dozen heavily fortified islands.

It does not matter what Japan holds as long as their oil tankers start to explode early and often in 1942.


Speeding up the Pac war would mean to speed up Nimitz central thrust of Gilbert's to Marshalls to Marianas.

CV12Hornet is correct that the thrust to the Marshalls and Marianas while pounding/isolating the Carolines had to wait until the Essex's arrived in 43.

The Gilbert islands may be vulnerable enough in second half of 1942 and early 1943 to take.

POD is USS Yorktown survives Midway by either:
part of the dive bombers from Hornet flight to no where turn coordinates and find IJN Hiryu before launch planes against Yorktown.
USS Saratoga is sped up a few days and joins Yorktown, finds Hiryu

Planes from Midway score hits against Hiryu in the morning.

Yorktown and Saratoga support mission in Gilberts, raid of Makin is first step to gain island and turn into fighter base.

Enterprise and Hornet support main action against Guadalcanal.

Japan reaction is to fortify Marshalls.

There is no Tarawa, Tarawa is easier than otl, us marines have baptism of fire in Marshalls.

Japan has to choose in 42 to defend Guadalcanal or Gilbert's. IJN chooses Guadalcanal and strengthen Marshalls leaving Gilbert's for USA to pick off.

Is this feasible?

Try this:

1200px-Solomon_Islands_Campaign.jpg


Weight the western pincer more and use land based air to push in on Rabaul from the west. Bypass the Solomons.


Basically, would speed up drive to capture Marianas by three months. Bombing of Japan starts 3 months earlier as b29's come off the line.

Where would the men come from?

Same place as they did. Australia and the US.

1st marine div is still tagged for guadal
Could the initial Raiders with follow on units from Hawaii be used for Gilbert's 42?

Well... with no Solomons campaign to derail and no wrecked units to refinish and replenish? I would wait til *43 and see if Mister Corncob can get across New Guinea. My target is Luzon. and then Formosa.

The gamble is to weaken Hawaii defences of army units and army air force to set up base in Gilbert's.

Midway argument. My guess it is a good logistics risk in Early *43. Not sooner.

Are there enough men and planes in second half 42 and 43 to secure Gilbert's and defend Guadalcanal?

Marshalls are then second part of 43 and Marianas are first part of 44

No. We don't want to do that thing.

A good way to shorten the Pacific War is to have Yamamoto's fears at Pearl Harbor come true, that is Midway comes 6 months early.

If you want a Japanese victory, have them go South in 1941 without PH, the US declares war along the way but suffers a major naval loss in the beginning of the war bringing about a quick peace like the Japs wanted all along.

Luzon is across their SLOCs. They have to take it.

I've always liked the idea of a combined TF 11 and TF 14 (Saratoga and Lexington) not giving up on the relief of Wake and getting into it successfully with the Hiryu and Soryu as a first step towards a shorter Pacific War.

No. Coral Sea shows what happens. The Americans need practice and anybody but Halsey.

1936 POD simply crushes Japan. I'll toss in some changes that other people might accept as plausible.

Have the Philliphine army commanded by someone competent. Let them have a number of tanks available, as well as some AT guns and mortars to keep the ground units maneuverable even on rough terrain. Take notes from the European war once it starts. Radars - more of them, train the operators sot they are proficient in their job. Recon aircraft also need radars. Trained radar operator is worth dozen of trained pilots. Provide competition to the Rhode Island-based torpedo facility, makign sure that torpedo models are fully tested and reliable, with emphasis on submarine torpedos. Reinforce Australia with LR bombers, so the captured oil fields can be bombed if that arose.

1. Competent? Wainwright?
2. No radars.
3. Not enough B-17s.
4. Bliss Leavitt still exists.
5. There goes the ice cream and sports budgets for the USN.
6. ARM the Dutch East Indies colonial forces and start joint planning.

Twin engined bombers must include speed, range and firepower, future A-20 included. Have Marines procure A-20s, even the DB7 will make sense for the starters. Make a deal for Merlin license production in 1939. License production of the Mosquito? Train the bombers' crews in low altitude high speed bombing of ships. Make a fighter around a big radial earlier, so at least 1000 of such are produced before 1942, for all three 'combat' services. With start of war, push for fighter-bombers with that powerplant. Fighters are nothing without range, so plan accordingly to have them outfitted with drop tanks. Once P-51 is there, embrace it fully (= 3 factories at least within a year), both fighter and recon variants are needed. Flight refueling?
The 1.1in is neither fish nor fowl on a big ship, better have the 37mm AA adopted by Navy before 40mm Bofors is ready. Have the AA crews training to include both surface and air targets.

7. The A-26 Marauder is better. It can carry a torpedo (2 of them). Build early, often and train up an USN force akin to the special attack force the Japanese used to sink Prince of Wales and Repulse. Battle of the Java Sea assumes a more Battle of the Bismark Sea definition.
8. Mosquito not ready. Beaufort is.
9. How about fixing the Allison for high altitude?
10. 1.1 needs a better shell and fusing. Fire control AAA is the real hanger. Fix that prewar.

If it was automated and far more sensitive than human ears, then why not try visual display? I realise that hydrophone gives you surprisingly a lot of pieces of data, namely where is the source of noise (just azimuth, not range), and more or less what is it. The operator could discern whatever it is a whale, a diesel engined vessel - possibly sub, a fast steamer like warship or ocean liner, a slow going merchant, or this shrimp that stuns its prey with supercavitation. You can also guesstimate whatever object is closing or running away, and which way it goes compared to you (does azimuth changes to left or to right?) The automatic piece would rob you from everything but the azimuth, except unless you can process the signal digitally, which is way too advanced for WWII, and most likely for Cold War as well. But, what keeps you from having both, super sensitive array to check where your hydrophone operator should listen for things, AND standard issue one to actually listen.

Too much hindsight. The sonar USN equivalent of GHG (1947) uses a tracking party a trained pair of listeners and graphs everything via pen repeater and in the case of the tracking party on a chart.

Actually. Is there anything that stops from using towed hydrophone arrays in WWII? That could be very useful for both subs and the ASW...

The size and vulnerability of the tube based electronic circuitry required.

I cannot, which bothers me to some extent. I agree with the first part, I read Buchenheim's Das Boot, I know that torpedoes are more like automated minisubs, rather than dumb projectiles. While I know about the crisis with US torpedoes, and know that navy responded to claims these torps do not work as intended, first with saying that crews do not know how to use and take care of them, and secondly by putting blame on individual mechanics who build them. But, wasn't it so that all the flaws that plagued the US torpedoes were in design? Mechanics in factory weren't incompetent, because they build machines according to bad plans... It is like blaming robots form Fiat assembly line, that the Multipla doesn't look like a car. Calling them semiskilled workforce as one of you does later seems to be buying into Navy's smokescreen.

Or am I missing something here?

You are missing a lot. First, it was not just the US. The UK and the Germans had terrible problems with their WW II torpedoes and among the three powers; circle runs, depth control, guidance, and initiators all traced their root faults back to the common Whitehead torpedo from which they started in 1900. As the fish became faster and longer ranged, the guidance and function variables (wander, yaw, porpoising, gyro tumble, etc.) became magnified over time. The three powers also used the same WW I German magnetic mine fuse architecture which does not work globally. What you test off Maine, Pomerania, or the Shetlands doesn't work off the River Plate or off Bunga Straits. AFAIK, only the USN even made a stab at checking for variances in the Earth's magnetic field. They tried but did not know enough to figure it out. The Germans did a partial Atlantic survey during the war but their later adoption of pure contact exploders for their later pattern runners and acoustics kind of suggests that they were not completely successful either.

And lastly about running "unsinkable"* ship through minefield. Germans did it to punch through minefields Brits sow around their U-boat bases, British did it to punch through the minefields lied by Germans, because they didn't have time to clear them, harbours had to work or the GB would starve. These ships were equipped with trawling equipment to try to make the mines explode ahead of them, were filled with all sorts of flotation aids but, yes, they were very dangerous posts, *and yes they werent really unsinkable. Why Japanese couldn't use them?

They did run ships with live crews through in critical harbors and straits. Was not necessary until the US mining campaign in *44/45.
 
Last edited:

McPherson

Banned
Anyway, the quickest and cheapest way to shorten the Pacific War is:

Get rid of MacArthur.
Get rid of Halsey and his whole motley crew (staff).
Fix the Mark 13, 14, and 15 torpedoes.
Train sub crews how to attack convoys German style.
Train for night fighting prewar.
Develop a land based antishipping naval air force.
And introduce a decent carrier fighter (XF5F)

You still have the range and weather gauge disadvantages, but fix those problems and shave off a whole year.

Is Hindsight not wonderful?
 
The USSR attacking Japan was the end of the Pacific War. So, to have the end happen sooner, you need the USSR to attack sooner. QED!
There's good reason to think the U.S. could have gotten a surrender sooner, given a willingness to allow Japan to keep the Throne (even if Hirohito was presumed to be bound for the hangman). Why that didn't obtain OTL is speculation I won't go into here.
I've suggested that Army in mid/late 1930s abandons hi-per engines that they shoved through the neck of Continental and Lycoming, and use the funds to accelerate R-2600, R-2800, V-1710. Plus Merlin already from 1939.
Which argues for no issues with V1710 deliveries...
With less complicated twin engined fighter (= have them more and earlier), a R-2800-based and R-2600-based fighter, the P-40 is needed less. Plus the P-51 should be adopted by Army by 1941.
That's just it: with the P-38 in true mass production, & ordered by the Brits, & with an R2600/R2800 *P-40, I'd say the P-51 never happens at all.
Between February 12th 1939 and September 1940 there is exactly zero P-38s of any kind (XP-, YP- etc) that can take off and fly.
Which has exactly nothing to do with selecting the P-38 (which will be flying before the Technical Mission arrives) in preference to a *P-51 which doesn't even exist on paper, yet.
Perhaps we didn't understand each other on P-38 and P-51. My suggestion was that ALT twin engined fighter is produced, in two factories. However, I still stand by suggestion that P-51 is to be produced by 3 factories by winter of 1941/42. Make it four factories if NAA actually wins over the Navy.
I'm suggesting the P-51 never happens at all...because it's supplanted by other types with better (than OTL) performance or greater (than OTL) numbers.
 
Last edited:
1. Competent? Wainwright?
2. No radars.
3. Not enough B-17s.
4. Bliss Leavitt still exists.
5. There goes the ice cream and sports budgets for the USN.
6. ARM the Dutch East Indies colonial forces and start joint planning.
7. The A-26 Marauder is better. It can carry a torpedo (2 of them). Build early, often and train up an USN force akin to the special attack force the Japanese used to sink Prince of Wales and Repulse. Battle of the Java Sea assumes a more Battle of the Bismark Sea definition.
8. Mosquito not ready. Beaufort is.
9. How about fixing the Allison for high altitude?
10. 1.1 needs a better shell and fusing. Fire control AAA is the real hanger. Fix that prewar.

Winwright, perhaps Eisenhower. I've covered the radars. I'd go for a token number of B-17s on the Philliphines, delploy the B-25s as the main bombers.
B-26 Marauder was able to carry one torpedo under the front bomb bay, and that's it. For each B-26 produced there are two B-25s in 1941, that are more rookie-friendly and have 95% capability of the B-26s. We'll need those R-2800s for fighters ASAP.
Of course, I'm trying to avoid aerial torpedo as a main mean to sink ships, while using bombs for that job. Bombs are universal wepon, launching platform will have easier time surviving the defenses, any aircraft can bomb, most of them can do it well. Chances for a hit are far better. Once skip bombing is adopted, losses for Japanese ships will skyrocket. American torpedo bombing depends much from proper development and testing proces - not that it can't be don, but bombs don'r require that.
Forget the Beaufort, Americans have much better 2-engined jobs than it. When Mosquito is ready, adopt it for production.
Allison's V-1710 indeed needs a bigger or a 2-stage supercharger - whatever comes 1st, but end up with a 2-stage S/C by early 1943 at least. Cancel the V-3420 to make it easier for Allison.
Fire control for the light AA is mostly dependant on Mk.1 Eyeball. Until the radar fire control is there having plenty of barrels helps, granted radars will help further.
 
Nope. Again history shows why that is unnecessary and a pipedream.
Anyway, the quickest and cheapest way to shorten the Pacific War is:

Get rid of MacArthur.
Get rid of Halsey and his whole motley crew (staff).
Fix the Mark 13, 14, and 15 torpedoes.
Train sub crews how to attack convoys German style.
Train for night fighting prewar.
Develop a land based antishipping naval air force.
And introduce a decent carrier fighter (XF5F)

You still have the range and weather gauge disadvantages, but fix those problems and shave off a whole year.

Is Hindsight not wonderful?

I totally disagree with these kinds of comments.

The USSR attacking Japan was the end of the Pacific War. So, to have the end happen sooner, you need the USSR to attack sooner. QED!

The US can destroy Japan's military more quickly, but then Japan will just adjust to the new situation exactly as they did during the deterioration of their military they suffered in OTL. Even worse, by having the US poised to strike at Japan earlier than OTL, casualties are massively increased from blockade, bombing, and even invasion.

The single biggest thing that changed Japan's strategic situation was loosing the USSR as a neutral backer. The single biggest thing that robbed them of their war goal, controlling China, was the Soviet invasion of china and korea through manchuria. Therefore, the single biggest contributor to Japan's ultimate surrender was the Soviet Union.

The way to shorted the Pacific War is to have Japan throw in the towel earlier.
Japan throws in the towel earlier if they are war with the USSR earlier.
The USSR invades Japan when it is finished with Europe, so Germany needs to be defeated by the Soviets earlier.

So instead of looking for ways for Americans to wrack up higher kill efficiency without solving the diplomatic issues of the war, the simplest answer is in actuality the military defeat of European Fascism.
 

McPherson

Banned
About the Russians:

There's good reason to think the U.S. could have gotten a surrender sooner, given a willingness to allow Japan to keep the Throne (even if Hirohito was presumed to be bound for the hangman). Why that didn't obtain OTL is speculation I won't go into here.

Agreed.

About the Merlin.

Which argues for no issues with V1710 deliveries...

Superchargers. US Army was wrong about that one. Will bite them in the posterior throughout the war.

That's just it: with the P-38 in true mass production, & ordered by the Brits, & with an R2600/R2800 *P-40, I'd say the P-51 never happens at all.

THWT.

THWT 2.
Which has exactly nothing to do with selecting the P-38 (which will be flying before the Technical Mission arrives) in preference to a *P-51 which doesn't even exist on paper, yet.

1. It is quicker, cheaper and easier to make a single engine fighter than a twin engine one.
2. All other things being near equal, a single engine fighter is easier, cheaper and quicker to train a pilot to fly.
3. All other things being near equal, the single engine fighter is better at turning in a dogfight

I'm suggesting the P-51 never happens at all...because it's supplanted by other types with better (than OTL) performance or greater (than OTL) numbers.

In the Pacific (see map) there is no better option than the P-51.
 

Insider

Banned
You are missing a lot. First, it was not just the US. The UK and the Germans had terrible problems with their WW II torpedoes and among the three powers; circle runs, depth control, guidance, and initiators all traced their root faults back to the common Whitehead torpedo from which they started in 1900. As the fish became faster and longer ranged, the guidance and function variables (wander, yaw, porpoising, gyro tumble, etc.) became magnified over time. The three powers also used the same WW I German magnetic mine fuse architecture which does not work globally. What you test off Maine, Pomerania, or the Shetlands doesn't work off the River Plate or off Bunga Straits. AFAIK, only the USN even made a stab at checking for variances in the Earth's magnetic field. They tried but did not know enough to figure it out. The Germans did a partial Atlantic survey during the war but their later adoption of pure contact exploders for their later pattern runners and acoustics kind of suggests that they were not completely successful either.
And not just WWII, look at troubled birth of british tigerfish and US mark 48. Making a new fish is as much art as science.
I know, and that is just one of three major flaws USN had to deal with. The fact that other powers had problems with torpedoes doesn't absolve USN bureaucracy from lack of will to test these torpedoes. They prefered to place blame either on the crews or the workers who build those things. Well, surely the admirality had talent for finding scape goats, without even checking if these contraptions could work in the first place. While making a magnetic detonator that works world wide would require a satelite to map Earths magnetosphere, the problems of running too deep, running in circles, and faulty impact exploder could be addressed between 1937 to 1941. That required nothing much than trying these things... Hell both the British and the Germans had made training torpedoes, just to check if the detonator works and it really hits targets.
Sure... as you mentioned this is a complicated mechanism with 4000 handfitted parts. There is no workaround that part, that was the reason why the submarines had guns. To not waste precious torpedoes on every tramp steamer. There could be some faults, even if you test them. Regardless having a choice between deadly weapon that works 15% of time and one somewhat less deadly that works 90% of a time, I would always choose the latter.
 

McPherson

Banned
Winwright, perhaps Eisenhower. I've covered the radars. I'd go for a token number of B-17s on the Philliphines, delploy the B-25s as the main bombers.
B-26 Marauder was able to carry one torpedo under the front bomb bay, and that's it. For each B-26 produced there are two B-25s in 1941, that are more rookie-friendly and have 95% capability of the B-26s. We'll need those R-2800s for fighters ASAP.
Of course, I'm trying to avoid aerial torpedo as a main mean to sink ships, while using bombs for that job. Bombs are universal wepon, launching platform will have easier time surviving the defenses, any aircraft can bomb, most of them can do it well. Chances for a hit are far better. Once skip bombing is adopted, losses for Japanese ships will skyrocket. American torpedo bombing depends much from proper development and testing proces - not that it can't be don, but bombs don'r require that.
Forget the Beaufort, Americans have much better 2-engined jobs than it. When Mosquito is ready, adopt it for production.
Allison's V-1710 indeed needs a bigger or a 2-stage supercharger - whatever comes 1st, but end up with a 2-stage S/C by early 1943 at least. Cancel the V-3420 to make it easier for Allison.
Fire control for the light AA is mostly dependant on Mk.1 Eyeball. Until the radar fire control is there having plenty of barrels helps, granted radars will help further.

1. Wainwright ran the Luzon land campaign. How did he do?
2. Wing mount the torpedoes.
3. Bombs don't sink warships. Hence torpedoes. Skip bombing is not as easy or survivable as a straight torpedo run.
4. Mosquito has glue problems in tropics. All metal or nothing.
5. Allison was bungled (see above).
6. Beaufort in hand is better than nothing at all.
7. Fire control AAA is 2-d axis problem. Mark 37.


I totally disagree with these kinds of comments.

The US can destroy Japan's military more quickly, but then Japan will just adjust to the new situation exactly as they did during the deterioration of their military they suffered in OTL. Even worse, by having the US poised to strike at Japan earlier than OTL, casualties are massively increased from blockade, bombing, and even invasion.

For Japan? Yes. They starve.

The single biggest thing that changed Japan's strategic situation was loosing the USSR as a neutral backer. The single biggest thing that robbed them of their war goal, controlling China, was the Soviet invasion of china and korea through manchuria. Therefore, the single biggest contributor to Japan's ultimate surrender was the Soviet Union.

The single biggest thing that stopped them was their inability to sustain their Chinese war and their Asian army. That was the US submarine campaign. Russia is a tired chimera that many people trot out without understanding the economics that allowed Russia such a meaningless walkover.

The way to shorted the Pacific War is to have Japan throw in the towel earlier.
Japan throws in the towel earlier if they are war with the USSR earlier.
The USSR invades Japan when it is finished with Europe, so Germany needs to be defeated by the Soviets earlier.

So instead of looking for ways for Americans to wrack up higher kill efficiency without solving the diplomatic issues of the war, the simplest answer is in actuality the military defeat of European Fascism.

The quickest way to win the war is to starve the Japanese, make them cold and put them in the dark. Which is what happened.
 

McPherson

Banned
And not just WWII, look at troubled birth of british tigerfish and US mark 48. Making a new fish is as much art as science.

Since the Mark 48 is the basis of the Spearfish, I agree with you. Takes years of use to work out the problems.

I know, and that is just one of three major flaws USN had to deal with. The fact that other powers had problems with torpedoes doesn't absolve USN bureaucracy from lack of will to test these torpedoes. They prefered to place blame either on the crews or the workers who build those things. Well, surely the admirality had talent for finding scape goats, without even checking if these contraptions could work in the first place.

Germans had Doenitz. Americans had Lockwood. It worked out in the end... for the Americans.

While making a magnetic detonator that works world wide would require a satelite to map Earths magnetosphere, the problems of running too deep, running in circles, and faulty impact exploder could be addressed between 1937 to 1941. That required nothing much than trying these things... Hell both the British and the Germans had made training torpedoes, just to check if the detonator works and it really hits targets.

The USN used the USS Indianapolis and sent the Mark 6 exploder project officer with a team of experts. For what was known in 19i31, the bunch did a fairly good survey and proposed a rheostat fix that would have solved about 80% of the problem as war mapping and experience taught US submariners how to adjust for flux lines. They would need a magnetometer to measure local conditions and a "firing table" to set the proper gate sensitivity in the influence circuit.

Sure... as you mentioned this is a complicated mechanism with 4000 handfitted parts. There is no workaround that part, that was the reason why the submarines had guns. To not waste precious torpedoes on every tramp steamer. There could be some faults, even if you test them. Regardless having a choice between deadly weapon that works 15% of time and one somewhat less deadly that works 90% of a time, I would always choose the latter.

When it becomes too dangerous in late war to run on the surface... you need the submerged option. A 500,000 freighter is worth a $10,000 torpedo. And a 50% PH and 25% PK in a torpedo is good enough

So it costs $40,000 to sink. It costs Japan $150,000 to protect and $500,000 of replaced if lost every time it goes to sea. War economics 101.
 
Last edited:
1. Wainwright ran the Luzon land campaign. How did he do?
2. Wing mount the torpedoes.
3. Bombs don't sink warships. Hence torpedoes. Skip bombing is not as easy or survivable as a straight torpedo run.
4. Mosquito has glue problems in tropics. All metal or nothing.
5. Allison was bungled (see above).
6. Beaufort in hand is better than nothing at all.
7. Fire control AAA is 2-d axis problem. Mark 37.

Wainwright played the cards dealt by McArthur, thus he was ill able to do much.
#Two never worked with B-26. Plus, two torpedoes hung in the breeze = slow bomber = dead bomber.
3. Thus Japanese carriers at Midway were sunk by applying fairy dust. Torpedo bomber (for daylight) = slow bomber = dead bomber.
4. Glue was changed. Crews of slow bombers have a bad habit of dying under a hail of enemy shells & bullets.
5. Was not. It was not ideal (whether we talk about company of it's engine(s)), but it was not a shambled or bungled.
6. Americans don't have problem with aircraft. Their problem was torpedo.

And, really, P-49??
 
For Japan? Yes. They starve.

I hope we agree that having more people starve for longer is a bad thing.

The single biggest thing that stopped them was their inability to sustain their Chinese war and their Asian army. That was the US submarine campaign. Russia is a tired chimera that many people trot out without understanding the economics that allowed Russia such a meaningless walkover.

Even in ‘39 when Japan’s Kwangtung army was at its peak, a soviet border force defeated them decisively, and since then Soviet abilities, machines, doctrines improved while the Japanese faded.

Even well-supplied, the Japanese would have crushed by Soviet blitzkrieg.
The quickest way to win the war is to starve the Japanese, make them cold and put them in the dark. Which is what happened.

I agree that the people wanted peace under those conditions, but the military thought they could resist even through all cities being wiped out. And Japan was not a democracy. The leadership would only stop if the populace truly were on the brink of revolt or if they had a diplomatic resolution. The Soviet invasion forced that diplomatic resolution.

Forcing Japanese civilians and industry to suffer will not affect the decision-making process of the military dictators. Only the loss of their prize.
 
The single biggest thing that changed Japan's strategic situation was loosing the USSR as a neutral backer. The single biggest thing that robbed them of their war goal, controlling China, was the Soviet invasion of china and korea through manchuria. Therefore, the single biggest contributor to Japan's ultimate surrender was the Soviet Union.
That is a preposterous notion. I could list off all the things that were required before Japan even considered surrender, but won't (unless you insist). Do you seriously believe, had the Sovs DoW in March '42, after Japan had a string of victories & more good fortune than any one nation rightfully deserves, Tojo & Co would have said, "Uncle!"?:rolleyes::rolleyes: Not while they were still breathing.
The USSR invades Japan when it is finished with Europe, so Germany needs to be defeated by the Soviets earlier.
And you're conveniently arranging that how?
the simplest answer is in actuality the military defeat of European Fascism.
Not without applying a fair amount of hammering to get Japan's attention, first, it isn't.
Since the Mark 48 is the basis of the Spearfish, I agree with you. Takes years of use to work out the problems.
That does suggest a clean-sheet design might not be the best idea... Your dislike of the Mark 10 (& it does have its own flaws) has to be measured against how long it takes to get a new design in service. Yes, I agreed an all-new one made sense...:oops:
The USN used the USS Indianapolis and sent the Mark 6 exploder project officer with a team of experts. For what was known in 19i31, the bunch did a fairly good survey
The trial protocol wasn't bad, as far as it went. The trouble was, nobody thought about where the torpedo was likely to be used. They then compounded it by failing to do even a single live-fire trial.:rolleyes: That way, the (legitimate) criticisms of error in target size & draft, depth settings, & so forth, which would explain misses & underruns, would be avoided.
having a choice between deadly weapon that works 15% of time and one somewhat less deadly that works 90% of a time, I would always choose the latter.
Except for your dislike of the Mark 10?:) Which was less lethal than the Mark 14, & less stealthy than the Mark 18, but worked as advertised at least 80% of the time (or more; I haven't got actual statistics:openedeyewink:).
Forcing Japanese civilians and industry to suffer will not affect the decision-making process of the military dictators. Only the loss of their prize.
And the Sovs were too busy fighting for survival to even consider taking any "prizes" away from Japan until 1945. I don't see that changing. It's far easier to push the Japanese populace to revolt.
 
That is a preposterous notion. I could list off all the things that were required before Japan even considered surrender, but won't (unless you insist). Do you seriously believe, had the Sovs DoW in March '42, after Japan had a string of victories & more good fortune than any one nation rightfully deserves, Tojo & Co would have said, "Uncle!"?:rolleyes::rolleyes: Not while they were still breathing.

And the Sovs were too busy fighting for survival to even consider taking any "prizes" away from Japan until 1945. I don't see that changing. It's far easier to push the Japanese populace to revolt.

I think you misinterpret my words. “Single biggest factor” does not mean “single important factor”, just the most vital one.
The destruction of the fleet and air forces was important. The destruction of infratrsucture and supply for the armies was important. The threat of having to fight an direct invasion was important. But of those three, you could take away one or two and so long as you still have the USSR, Japan will surrender on-schedule.

Having just the USSR and not one of those obviously wouldn’t work out well, but the American side of the war doesn’t even need to go as well as OTL to get our reasonable requirements for Japanese surrender and therefore doesn’t need to be the focus of the challenge.

By contrast the entry schedule of the USSR has a massive impact.

Sure, OTL the Soviet Union was too busy. But what if Barbarossa is a flop, and/or the Soviets are not caught flat-footed, resulting not in a desperate fight for survival but instead Germany gets pasted by 1943. A very different bear is now looking east.

The nazis were incredibly lucky in the opening months of the war, and had been incredibly lucky in the years prior. Take away some of that luck and prevent some early Soviet incompetence... things would change very much indeed, affecting politics on the other side of the globe. That is a much more humane and simple way to end Japanese imperialism.

I understand you want to have your talk about torpedoes and toys, but insofar as this discussion, it’s just not relevant enough for the bigger picture.
 
Even in ‘39 when Japan’s Kwangtung army was at its peak, a soviet border force defeated them decisively, and since then Soviet abilities, machines, doctrines improved while the Japanese faded.

Even well-supplied, the Japanese would have crushed by Soviet blitzkrieg.

.

Lets look at that a bit more.... Khalkhin Gol

So there are essentially two fights there. After the initial May - June skirmishes (glorified border guard shoot outs) , in July the Japanese attack with a division sized infantry/tank force, face a counterattack by a Corps sized Soviet armored force and things devolve into stalemate. In August the Soviets reinforce and replace their previous losses, while the Japanese are hard pressed to do the same, and then the Soviets basically chew up that Japanese force (which they outnumber 2:1 in manpower, roughly 10:1 in armored vehicles and trucks) and throw the Japanese into full retreat.

Thus the basic facts of the situation. However, September 1939 means that the Soviet attention is firmly West, while a certain amount of shock and embarrassment, as well as opportunities created by the situation in Europe means that the Japanese turn their attention south.. Both essentially realized that more pressing matters were elsewhere. Again that is the basic situation.

The Japanese retain a strong garrison in Marnchuria in 41 and 42 hoping that opportunities will be created by a German destruction of the Soviet Union. After Stalingrad that is clearly unlikely and that Manchurian garrison is raided for the rest of the war whenever the Japanese need troops. The Soviets meanwhile strip their garrison to bare bones (although still comparable to the Japanese garrison across the border) until they march into Berlin. Short of the Germans not being Germans and collapsing in the face of Soviet power earlier (seems unlikely) or some other massive break (Western Allies manage a massive success, like D Day in 1943 working), or someone killing Hitler and a civil war breaking out in Germany, an earlier victory over Germany is a tough proposition.

Meanwhile the US, with help from its allies, has destroyed the IJN as a significant force, crushes the Japanese air arm, sunk its merchant marine, and literally the only thing left is the IJA. Those troops in Manchuria and China were not redeployed to Japan in OTL, but they could have been, so the Soviet invasion of Manchuria is important in that it eliminates that potential threat. It also permanently ends the remainder of the Japanese Empire that the Army was hoping to retain. However in spite of holding on to Southeast Asia the surrender, that portion of the Japanese Empire was as useless to Japan as the part the Soviets occupied.

So I will grant that the Soviet invasion of Manchuria is critical to adding to the critical mass of a hopeless strategic situation facing Japan, along with the Americans seemingly able to destroy cities and armies at will (remember an entire army---2 divisions and an HQ, plus an area army command, were at Hiroshima) but in saying that the Soviets are the most important factor to Japanese surrender is just flat out wrong.

As to the Soviet Blitzkreig.... they only readopted Deep Battle and all of the other hallmarks of the "Soviet Blitzkreig" (as you put it) after shooting or imprisoning everyone who taught it or held to that doctrine (the Purges in the 1930s) and having to then relearn it the hard way fighting the Germans. It took them 2 years to get it right too, and even then they suffered embarrassment on many an occasion. There is no Soviet Blitzkreig without the German one


 

BlondieBC

Banned
I've always liked the idea of a combined TF 11 and TF 14 (Saratoga and Lexington) not giving up on the relief of Wake and getting into it successfully with the Hiryu and Soryu as a first step towards a shorter Pacific War.

Well, this TF was cancelled due to the Kimmel/Nimitz transition. Maybe leave Kimmel in charge? Technically, it is the Army job to defend ports from air and land attack, so Short can take the fall.
 
Well, this TF was cancelled due to the Kimmel/Nimitz transition. Maybe leave Kimmel in charge? Technically, it is the Army job to defend ports from air and land attack, so Short can take the fall.

The problem with the Relief of Wake Island is that it could have very easily gone very badly for the US.
 
So could have Midway.

Yes I know but the US actually succeeded at Midway. I've noticed that WRT the Relief of Wake Island there is a general assumption that the a US victory was more or less in the bag. I'm not so sure, particularly given how dispersed the US carriers were.
 
Top