AHC: Schnaebelé Affair leads to war

[La Rouge Beret]

In April 1887 a French police inspector Guilaume Schnaebelé was arrested by the German secret police on the grounds of engaging in espionage activities, after being invited to meet across the border with another German police officer. A flurry of diplomatic cables flew back and forth, with the French cabinet narrowly voted against (6 to 5) demanding not only the Inspector's release, but that it would be accompanied with a formal apology from the Germans. If the demand parallels the Ems dispatch in that it acts as a justification for war.

Now, if France and Germany go to war in 1887 how does it unfold? Is it the Franco - Prussian war Mk 2 or does it grind into a stalemate like the Great War?

 

[raharris1973]

A couple other background points about the period of the spring of 1887: Germany and Russia at this time were still linked to each other either through the Three Emperors League, or, if that had expired, the Reinsurance Treaty. The Reinsurance Treaty bound Russia to be a friendly neutral if France attacked Germany, but not if Germany attacked France. But it looks like in this case it was the French were closest to making ultimatum-like demands and thus declaring war, so the Reinsurance Treaty should apply.

In Britain, this is during one of Salisbury's Ministries.

In France, Boulanger was Minister of War in April 1887 and would continue until the end of May. Boulanger would be a political rising star in France all the way until his sudden flight from France and fall from grace in April 1889.

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Yeah it's a fascinating point in time when a number of strategic alignments were still in play, now I think any support that Russia brings to bear will be of little consequence to the overall conclusion of hostilities. The question will be does Germany have a case of hubris post war, if they secure victory, to still confidently ignore Russia or do they realise Russian importance & discard Austria?

 

[raharris1973]

Yeah it's a fascinating point in time when a number of strategic alignments were still in play, now I think any support that Russia brings to bear will be of little consequence to the overall conclusion of hostilities. The question will be does Germany have a case of hubris post war, if they secure victory, to still confidently ignore Russia or do they realise Russian importance & discard Austria?

Even before the matter of Russia long-term, another matter needs to be determined in the short-term relative to the Franco-German war. How do the hostilities conclude, and, presuming Germany wins, does Italy avail itself an opportunity to avenge itself for the slap of Tunis? Seizing Tunis during the war, or even other possible claims, like Nizza, Savoia, Corsica? Do the Germans push any frontier gains to Briey-Longwy or the Moselle, or the fortress line of Verdun?

IMHO, it is not a no-brainer for Germany to discard Austria and adopt an all-out 'appease Russia' scenario. Germany must can realize perfectly well Russia is the more powerful of the two and then still decide if it wants to side with Russia on every international question or not. If Germany feels like Russia is stronger and will be irritated by German opposition, but will restrain itself to "reasonable" growth of influence influence in the Balkans and Near East over time, Russia can be a decent partner, especially if Berlin anticipates France still has the spirit for a third round (it may not anymore, and may "retire" like Sweden, Netherlands and Spain did) and that conflict with Britain over naval and colonial matters is inevitable. If on the other hand, appeasing Russian demands in the OE and Balkans just leads to more Russian demands about the Austro-Hungarian Slavs, limitlessly expanding Russian power while Russia gives Germany nothing in return, Germany may want to partner with others to limit and slow down Russian ambitions, and the Austrians and Ottomans are natural partners for that. Germany could even find a partner in Britain for that.

 

[Wendell]

It's also interesting because we're at the tail end of monarchism as a serious (if minor) political force in France. Does that end up a factor in or after the conflict?

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Even before the matter of Russia long-term, another matter needs to be determined in the short-term relative to the Franco-German war. How do the hostilities conclude, and, presuming Germany wins, does Italy avail itself an opportunity to avenge itself for the slap of Tunis? Seizing Tunis during the war, or even other possible claims, like Nizza, Savoia, Corsica? Do the Germans push any frontier gains to Briey-Longwy or the Moselle, or the fortress line of Verdun?

Part of me is toying with the idea of a meatgrinder leading to a ceasefire between the two powers, which leaves neither power entirely satisfied & opens up the possibility of another conflict. I hadn't considered the impact of Italian involvement during the war and, if this happens that might lead to fighting in North Africa over colonial possessions.

IMHO, it is not a no-brainer for Germany to discard Austria and adopt an all-out 'appease Russia' scenario. Germany must can realize perfectly well Russia is the more powerful of the two and then still decide if it wants to side with Russia on every international question or not. If Germany feels like Russia is stronger and will be irritated by German opposition, but will restrain itself to "reasonable" growth of influence influence in the Balkans and Near East over time, Russia can be a decent partner, especially if Berlin anticipates France still has the spirit for a third round (it may not anymore, and may "retire" like Sweden, Netherlands and Spain did) and that conflict with Britain over naval and colonial matters is inevitable. If on the other hand, appeasing Russian demands in the OE and Balkans just leads to more Russian demands about the Austro-Hungarian Slavs, limitlessly expanding Russian power while Russia gives Germany nothing in return, Germany may want to partner with others to limit and slow down Russian ambitions, and the Austrians and Ottomans are natural partners for that. Germany could even find a partner in Britain for that.

Now that's an interesting point and, I could see a forthright German diplomat perhaps explaining the facts of life to their Russian equivalent. Namely, we can both gain from working constructively with each other or not. A German - Russian reapproachment could then lead to a French, Austrian & Italian alliance / pact against Germany & that would be interesting. The Ottoman Empire acting as the swing state with the Brits selling to both sides.

Sounds like a great war game scenario IMHO.

It's also interesting because we're at the tail end of monarchism as a serious (if minor) political force in France. Does that end up a factor in or after the conflict?

I've actually been toying with that as a factor.

 

[raharris1973]

Part of me is toying with the idea of a meatgrinder leading to a ceasefire between the two powers, which leaves neither power entirely satisfied & opens up the possibility of another conflict.

Is it written in stone they *must* have rematch after an 1880s war? Especially if it is a meat grinder ending with ceasefire unsatisfying to both? Might that provide an opportunity, like 1945 did, for France and Germany to stop and think "hey, let's stop doing this and move on to other priorities". Perhaps that just couldn't happen in the 19th century, and it's predestined France and Germany have to keep rematches going until they complete two more, or it is the 1940s?

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Is it written in stone they *must* have rematch after an 1880s war? Especially if it is a meat grinder ending with ceasefire unsatisfying to both? Might that provide an opportunity, like 1945 did, for France and Germany to stop and think "hey, let's stop doing this and move on to other priorities". Perhaps that just couldn't happen in the 19th century, and it's predestined France and Germany have to keep rematches going until they complete two more, or it is the 1940s?

This is a possibility for both sides to find common ground, after all look at America & Canada post 1812 war. The question is on both sides are there people with cool enough heads to seek an amicable outcome?

What I'll do is to place it as a potential outcome in my TL and, then roll a dice to take into account chance.

 

[raharris1973]

This is a possibility for both sides to find common ground, after all look at America & Canada post 1812 war. The question is on both sides are there people with cool enough heads to seek an amicable outcome?

What I'll do is to place it as a potential outcome in my TL and, then roll a dice to take into account chance.

Hah - sounds like a perfectly fair way to do it, if you're ready to let chips fall where they may

 

[La Rouge Beret]

Honestly it can work really well in a TL, and it just adds an element of chance to take your narrative in a direction you hadn't thought possible. I had one character that I was going to bump off and he rolled a couple of sixes avoiding a bomb, an assassin's knife & someone slipping something into his drink.

 

[Nivek]

Is it written in stone they *must* have rematch after an 1880s war? Especially if it is a meat grinder ending with ceasefire unsatisfying to both? Might that provide an opportunity, like 1945 did, for France and Germany to stop and think "hey, let's stop doing this and move on to other priorities". Perhaps that just couldn't happen in the 19th century, and it's predestined France and Germany have to keep rematches going until they complete two more, or it is the 1940s?

YES, Post 1871 France spends decades teaching their kids E-L were stolen lands showing it in black lines on the national maps, they expanded the army and added the three-year conscription for the same purpose, that's why the dropped their hereditary enemy, they wanted Revanche, that was a national doctrine, like USA exceptionalism