AHC: Republican Vermont

[UncleDynamite]

Your challenge, should you choose to accept it, is to have a majority of voters in the State of Vermont(formerly a GOP stronghold) choose the Republican nominee for President of the United States in every Presidential election from 1856 to the present day. The earliest POD is 1900 and the GOP must remain a major national party and be generally center-right in ideology.

 

[Seleucus]

IIRC, Vermont only voted Democrat in 1964 (LBJ landslide), and in every presidential election from 1992 to today. So we need to.

- Butterfly away the Goldwater nomination in 1964.

- Keeping the Republican party from swinging hard-right (and keeping it center-right, but more in the western European sense) would probably do it.


For reference, Vermont is a historically very Republican state, to the point where it's only elected one Democrat ever to the Senate (Pat Leahy)

 

[UncleDynamite]

snip

That could work.

Some more background: IOTL Vermont was a state where cows outnumbered people until the 1960s and had a constant population surplus- over 50% of people born in Vermont did not stay throughout the 1st half of the 20th Century.

This constant exodus coupled with a massive influx of affluent people from the cities starting in the 1950s led to the tiny state having most of its population replaced within a generation.

So another way to do this is to prevent white flight from New York City and Boston, or at least have it occurr on a smaller scale than OTL.

 

[Hominid]

For reference, Vermont is a historically very Republican state, to the point where it's only elected one Democrat ever to the Senate (Pat Leahy)

True, although that's a bit deceiving, because Leahy has been in the Senate since the 1970s, and Sanders is basically a Democrat.

I think preventing movement from New York and Boston is the best way to do it. Or maybe have them move to New Hampshire instead?

Also, I've heard that Philip H. Hoff is responsible for Vermont becoming a blue state; I'm not sure why, though.

 

[UncleDynamite]

True, although that's a bit deceiving, because Leahy has been in the Senate since the 1970s, and Sanders is basically a Democrat.

I think preventing movement from New York and Boston is the best way to do it. Or maybe have them move to New Hampshire instead?

Also, I've heard that Philip H. Hoff is responsible for Vermont becoming a blue state; I'm not sure why, though.

Indeed. I've heard that about Hoff, too, but IMO, he was a product of other forces that moved Vermont to the left, not the force itself.

Vermont is interesting- it was not only Republican, but very conservative- it never once voted for FDR.

The New Hampshire-Vermont dictomy is fascinating as an example of ideological sorting. For whatever reason, conservatives from the northeastern cities who moved west tended to go to New Hampshire and liberals tended to go to Vermont, which is why New Hampshire is a swing(and libertarianish) state today and Vermont is deep blue. If, for whatever reason, this was reversed, it could fit the challenge.

 

[Hominid]

Indeed. I've heard that about Hoff, too, but IMO, he was a product of other forces that moved Vermont to the left, not the force itself.

Vermont is interesting- it was not only Republican, but very conservative- it never once voted for FDR.

The New Hampshire-Vermont dictomy is fascinating as an example of ideological sorting. For whatever reason, conservatives from the northeastern cities who moved west tended to go to New Hampshire and liberals tended to go to Vermont, which is why New Hampshire is a swing(and libertarianish) state today and Vermont is deep blue. If, for whatever reason, this was reversed, it could fit the challenge.

IIRC there was an environmental law in Vermont that attracted environmentalists to the state.

The NH/VT thing doesn't follow state lines exactly, though; the conservative part of New Hampshire is mostly in the eastern part of the state.

 

[Francisco Cojuanco]

Maybe if that law isn't passed VT doesn't get the environmentalist pioneering?