AHC: Permanently Balkanized China post Yuan
- Thread starter Gloss
- Start date
I'm not sure that's possible. By the time of the Ming, there have already been 5 united, longlasting dynasties which have had a strong grip on China, 16 dynasties recognized according to modern historians and innumerable claims on the mandate of heaven. China is basically garunteed to unite at that point, one way or another. Even if it goes through a warlord-filled era like the 5 dynasties and 10 kingdoms. Any division will not be permanent.
We are not talking about an improbable alien invasion, it should be possible.
Nearly every Chinese warlord has shown signs of being willing to maintain claims on the entirety of China, militarily invade neighbours so as to United China, or to aid his leige in the conquest of China. Even if every single one of the many post Yuan warlords changes their mind's and decide that they'd like to establish localized nations, there will still be peasants rebelling and uniting the nation, there will still be descendants of said warlords who feel that they should unite China. The furthest you can go would be an extended period of time in which China undergoes civil war. And that is why a permanent ly divided China is impossible post Yuan.
Sichuan is the breadbasket of any Chinese Empire. Despite it being very defensible, it is extremely important, an importance only increased by its ability to invade the guanzhong reigon.
Fujian and Guangzhou, as with much of the Chinese south is historically subject to the whims of whoever unites northern China. The South is also more fertile, rich but unpopulated compared to the north, removing the incentive for protracted war.
Fujian is trapped in the middle of the post Yuan wars without being exceptionally populous, or have any defensible terrain. It is also located next to the Red Turban (and later Ming) powerbase of Zhe Jiang.
Like you said it´s defensible and self sustaing, it´s perfect to create a country, you have in Europe countries with far less defensible borders(and same elsewhere).
Well this fertility can potentially become bigger population, I don´t think North China was in a good state anyway during and after the rebellion(in particular the Huai valley).
Fujian has a rough terrain, this can help them. This also works in part for Guangdong.
Semi permanently means that Napolenic style stuff can happen, but essentially they stay divided. So it would not be considered civil wars.
Historically,various Chinese regimes don't really recognise each other and saw each other as false emperors and traitors.
China is basically the anti-HRE by definition and designed for centralization. Extended periods of division such as the Three Kingdoms period and the Jin-Song division were simply considered lulls between unifying dynasties. The best way to keep China split is simply to have a balance of power where none of the sides could take over the other. But the tendency to gain the Mandate of Heaven and rule over an undivided China would still be there. There's too much power and prestige in that to simply be content with ruling over a small fiefdom, and rival lords will seize the chance to take control of the whole country if it came.
Yes, Sichuan and Guangdong have large potential, but Guangdong 's population is far too low at the time of the fall of the Yuan. When it grows to be strong enough, it'll have to face a massive enemy in the form of a United north. If the north remains divided, then Guangdong in turn becomes a new competitor in the fight to unite China. The same goes for Sichuan, only that Sichuan will be much stronger and have a easy time uniting the nation. Both Sichuan and Guangdong will be very much interested in fighting to unite the nation, even if it means risking defeat.
Fujian is far too poor to become strong. Much of Southern China's wealth is in Zhejiang and Jiangsu, which is partially why the Ming succeeded.
scholar
Banned
Its possible, but the issue is, ironically, that China is too populated at the time. The old ages of long term fragmentation were born after demographic collapses in China, and demographic resurgence normally was correlated with unification. That's why fragmentation tended to be brief, about a generation or two, post Yuan.
But that´s because of the perspective we use, given we have centuries of time we can maybe make this trend discontinue like many others that did, I don´t mean overnight of course.
For example if the Rebellion causes even more damage in the Northern plains and core Ming area we could have the Southern states survive and possibly be able to resist northern expansion, more so when the North has to face Whitewal... ehm Mongols and Jurchens raids.
If let´s say the Core China part was divided into 2 I´m not sure how easy it would be for Sichuan to expand.
It doesn´t have to be dominant just be able to withstand pressure from the north.
Why this correlation between density and unity? In India that was not so the case. Or even in Europe.
Last edited:
this depends on the nature and future of the rebellion. IOTL, when the rebellion was led by Zhu Yuanzhang, it secured and fortified a core in Nanjing, building up power and allowing Zhu to then conquer China in one fell swoop. Without Zhu, the rebellion can become a destructive force rampaging across northern CHina and killing Mongols wherever they found them.
A divided core China just makes Sichuan all the more able to expand. A divided nation allows Sichuan to potentially (And most likely) strike into Guanzhong then proceed to steamroll a divided China. It's very hard to achieve a lasting balance to last maybe 100-200 years, as if the nation is divided, a warlord with an advantageous position will take over; if the nation is united, the breakaway warlords will be defeated.
But wouldn´t those 2 nations be stronger on their own? I mean we are still talking about the area around Nanjing and Beijing, so it would balance out.
To be more specific this is more or less how I would imagine the area stabilizing(today´s China borders):
I don´t think I need to explain the colors, those are of course not actual lasting states but it´s just to give an idea.
scholar
Banned
It goes two fold. During the first Han Dynasty civil war, the southern portion of China was too lightly populated to be a viable contender for the throne. While the fighting was being determined up north, they were influential players. Once the matter was settled in the north, theirs was sealed as well. During the Three Kingdoms era, the north suffered near demographic collapse, an entire province became an ungovernable wasteland and foreigners were invited to create a taxable population that could also serve as military personnel, seeding the later Wu Hu rebellions which further caused demographic issues. The South, however, had rapid demographic increases, and was as much as a fourth of the total population of China, if not a third, during the beginning of the Jin-Sui fragmentation.
During the Tang dynasty, the power of the empire was shattered during An Lushan's rebellion and concurrent rebellions elsewhere which had casualty rates that would make all but the most industrial death machines of war blush. The Tang lingered on, but without much in the way centralized control for a century or so. The South more or less broke off on similar lines that it had been during the Tang, while the central plains went through a rapid succession of dynasties. The Song, that would reunite China, was centered around the South along the far stronger demographic lines, while the northern frontiers would not be retaken until the Yuan Dynasty, as the Liao, Xia, and Jin were able to dominate the region due to weakened Chinese demographics in the region (though this became less true as time went on, it remained a crucial part of the foundation of the state, especially so with the Jin).
India was never a thing that was "real" in the same way that China was. India was more akin to the European concept of Christendom, or Europe, during the Medieval Era. In China it was a political and social reality. To be a Chinese state meant to be the Chinese state. A way to get around this would be to adopt an inferior title like Prince or King, but otherwise to be an Emperor meant to be in direct contradiction of all others who claimed that title. Part of the Song's humiliation was being forced to recognize the Jin as Emperor. It had little to do with them being Barbarian, though that stung and bruised their egos, it had to do with the recognition that their Emperor was not the Emperor, or the ruler of All Under Heaven.
It would take a while, yes. Not impossible, but difficult. The current situation in Taiwan is practically the only example of a nativist movement calling for a de jure separation of a historically-accepted part of China from China (Hong Kong too, but they're already part of China, and not going to split in the foreseeable future), and that in itself has several conditions to it (existence of non-Sinicised aborigines, bad experiences with KMT rule, Japanese rule prior to KMT rule, Communism, etc.)
You just need the differences to become obvious and clear at some point, or the Mandate of Heaven or 19th Century nationalism will take hold anyway.
scholar
Banned
A chart of demographics from a book for China.
https://books.google.com/books?id=z...he five dynasties ten kingdoms period&f=false
https://books.google.com/books?id=z...he five dynasties ten kingdoms period&f=false
Well "aborigines" you have plenty in China, you can form some states out of them(Zhuang, Bai, Miao and that other one) but I think you can only have a Dali and a Zhuang kingdom.
I think having their own language would be the key.
A balance of power is needed, I wonder if the way fortification were built pretty much incentivized unification and if it was done differently local powers would have resisted.