AHC/PC/WI MacArthur invades Luzon first instead of Leyte

viperjock

CalBear mentioned MacArthur attacking Luzon first instead of Leyte in a post and I felt it deserved its own thread.

What if the recapture of the Philappines began at Luzon in 1944? What would have to be done to convince Washington to approve the plan?

What would it take to convince MacArthur to basically do what the Japanese did to him in 1941 by landing at Lingayan gulf?

Logistically can it be done? (Aircraft range? Carriers remaining on station?)

Pros of the invasion:

1. Rescue the POWs/internees on Luzon.
2. U.S. Gets Manila Bay back earlier as well as Clark Field to bomb Formosa.

Cons:

1. The Japanese massacre the POWs.


As a option what if Peleliu is cancelled and instead in September 1944 the 1st Marine Division lands at Mindoro Island seizing the island to build airfields for a push on Luzon in October 1944 if feasible that early. (According to Wikipedia the island was captured in three days in December 1944.)
 
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sloreck

It's possible that Manila is not trashed as badly with all those deaths. As far as POWs go, whether or not they live depends on a lot of things, basically anyplace that gets invaded if the POWs look like they might be freed they are toast.
 

zert

I wondered about that in another thread, allbeit with out MacArthur. If such an invasion came about, coukd a secondary landing occur closer to Manila? With more open seaways, could Japan's Sho response be intercepted easier?
 

Joseph Solis in Australia

Manila would be still likely in trash because they are invading Luzon in the first place and Manila is in Luzon. The better POD is to have skip the Philippines altogether and invade Formosa directly.
 

sloreck

IMHO one of the reasons things went so bad in Manila was that the Japanese had plenty of time to plan to defend the city and move troops in after Leyte was invaded. By going to straight to Luzon their ability to move troops in for this defense is much reduced. Of course, bypassing the PI might very well have been a better idea - but that is never happening with doug on the scene anywhere.
 

Carl Schwamberger

sloreck said:
IMHO one of the reasons things went so bad in Manila was that the Japanese had plenty of time to plan to defend the city and move troops in after Leyte was invaded. By going to straight to Luzon their ability to move troops in for this defense is much reduced. Of course, bypassing the PI might very well have been a better idea - but that is never happening with doug on the scene anywhere.
Click to expand...

Might have occurred if the PoD started with larger 1943 operations planned for Europe. Marshal was disappointed at the Symbol Confrence with operations planned only for the Mediterranean, and those planned from a conservative view point. He made a decision to support Macs proposed effort in the S Pacific so that the US resources at hand would not sit idle. Had the Brits agreed to a larger & more aggressive course in the MTO & ETO Marshal probably would have told Mac to get by with what was at hand, & forget about a separate S Pacific offensive. Marshal was all for Europe first & he would have happily caused 100s kof material & combat power to be sent to Europe vs the S Pacific.

So, lets assume Mac is sitting in Australia directing raids & limited diversionary ops. The Central Pacific Offensive of OTL was conducted with not much more than three corps worth of ground combat forces. Thats not enough to seize the necessary island bases in the Central Pacific, the Ryukus & Bonin islands, and capture either Formosa or Luzon by mid 1945.

Formosa was not lightly defended in 1944-45. Ad the US Cent Pac offensive progressed the place was reinforced & ammunition stockpiled. The locals were incorporated into a militia. The terrain is not easy. There is also a question of how important it or (Luzon) were for invading Japan. Massive naval bases had been established in the central Pacific. Okinawa & the Bonin islands had a fair carrying capacity for the USN mobile logistics. While the USN leaders proposed a invasion of Formosa they did not push it very hard & may have abandoned the idea after Okinawa was secured.
 
Fearless Leader

Fearless Leader

Donor
Without bases in Formosa it's going to be difficult for the USN to invade at Lingayen Gulf.

Likely, the US is going to try and do the same thing the Japanese did on the Eastern coast of Luzon. A diversionary landing at Legazpi to draw a large number of Japanese troops south, then a main landing at Lamon bay to cut off the Japanese army. They might bypass Manila initially in favour of taking Bataan before the Japanese can dig in.
 
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