With a PoD after 2 September 1945 (the official surrender of Imperial Japan), is it possible to have nuclear weapons stationed in Japan? Bonus points if it's because of Japan being a nuclear power.
AHC: Nuclear Weapons in Japan
- Thread starter General Mosh
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Delta Force
Banned
Official United States policy is to refuse to confirm or deny the deployment and capabilities of nuclear weapons. At the very least, nuclear weapons are likely present on the aircraft carriers stationed in Japan.
Post September 2, 1945 is it conceivable that Japan will have its own nuclear weapons stationed upon its soil? NO, this is inconceivable.
Post September 2, 1945 is it conceivable that Japan will become/be a nuclear power? NO, this is inconceivable.
CthulhuFhtagn
Banned
It's possible, if you broaden your definition of "Japan" to include the outlying islands. Just have the US annex Okinawa, and put a nuclear missile or two there.
For a state that would never never ever in a million years build nuclear weapons, Japan sure is sitting on an awful lot of plutonium.
Post September 2, 1945, is it conceivable that Japan would decide to use its plutonium to build its own nuclear arsenal? NO, this is inconceivable.
(BTW, inconceivable =/= never never ever in a million years.)
They've got lasting issues with their neighbors, and most of those neighbors are rather well-armed, which means they may want to be able to get nukes should the world around them force them to....
I do not know anything about Japanese domestic politics. But, from a purely technical perspective, the most plausible explanation of their technological choices appears to me to be a desire to be able to build a very large nuclear arsenal very rapidly, without actually having said arsenal in being. And while there are other explanations for each of their choices, the cumulative impact leads me to think those other explanations are improbable.
Delta Force
Banned
Didn't they purchase a large amount of weapons grade uranium and/or plutonium from the Soviet Union starting in the 1980s? As threshold states go, I think they're one of the closest. I've read they could make a nuclear bomb within a month if they were so inclined.
Deleted member 6086
TFSmith121
Banned
Consider the capabilities of the 1st MAW on Okinawa
Consider the capabilities, roles, and missions of the 1st MAW on Okinawa for much of the late Cold War...
For that matter, consider the capabilities, roles, and missions of the B-29, B-36, and B-45 aircraft deployed to Okinawa and Japan proper during the Korean War...and what they were replaced by in terms of the USAF during the Cold War.
Best,
Consider the capabilities, roles, and missions of the 1st MAW on Okinawa for much of the late Cold War...
For that matter, consider the capabilities, roles, and missions of the B-29, B-36, and B-45 aircraft deployed to Okinawa and Japan proper during the Korean War...and what they were replaced by in terms of the USAF during the Cold War.
Best,
CthulhuFhtagn
Banned
Finally, an excuse to use this!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GI6CfKcMhjY
(It was under "related videos")
Not its own, anyone's nuclear weapons. I was thinking of American nuclear weapons being stationed on the islands.
Anyone saying it's inconceivable the Japanese would acquire nuclear weapons of their own is underestimating Japanese adaptability when they perceive something vital is at stake. Within less than a hundred years after Commodore Perry arrived, Japanese society engaged in at least two and arguably three huge structural shifts in response to external events, coming out stronger and more capable each time.
Personally, I think that the most important thing to the Japanese is that Japan endures. And I say that with a due sense of respect for how they have managed to achieve that. In the past this has meant the Meiji restoration, accepting American dominance after WW2, and facing a demographic transition of major proportions. If in the future they decide this means having a nuclear capability, I have no doubt they will do exactly that.
Personally, I think that the most important thing to the Japanese is that Japan endures. And I say that with a due sense of respect for how they have managed to achieve that. In the past this has meant the Meiji restoration, accepting American dominance after WW2, and facing a demographic transition of major proportions. If in the future they decide this means having a nuclear capability, I have no doubt they will do exactly that.
Isn't it a given that there are nuclear weapons stashed by US in Japan in one point in time since 1945 until present day OTL?
With Japan being nuclear power, they are already in terms of having nuclear as power. But in terms of nuclear weapons, present day otl japan is in a state of Nuclear latency, having the materials and the skills to build such weapons but refusing to build nukes to be recognize as a nuclear state even though they are just one step away from being one,
China or North Korea declaring war vs Japan in 2012 or 2013 or even today can force Japan to withdraw from NPT and cross the nuclear latency especially now that US will be more forgiving in present day with a nuclear armed Japan.
The tension otl present day between Japan and China is just too great to even deny this,
I'd have said that it was pretty likely that Okinawa had some stashed away, for use on China during the Stalin/Mao years and then primarily for use on Kamchatka and the like until the sixties when ICBMs became more popular. There were a number of SAC units stationed in Japan until the mid-fifties so it's a good bet to say that at least one of them had buckets of sunshine hidden in a bunker somewhere.
Of course, that information will remain classified until the end of time because if it ever got out Japan would throw a massive fit and demand compensation and it would give the 'Remove Kadena' crowd a big propaganda boost.
Could Japan be a nuclear power? Very easily, could it have become a nuclear power between the end of WWII and now? Only if the United States was removed from the Pacific, and as we've seen, that's not exactly easy. Perhaps in the aftermath of a US/USSR nuclear exchange, but even then Japan would have received its own presents from both the PRC and the USSR in equal measure so it would have to recover before it could get a program in gear, but with the US reduced in effectiveness Japan would be forced to develop something to defend itself while it builds up its military forces. Although the PRC would have very little to actually invade Japan with in terms of naval forces, so Japan could sit pretty for a while with only the Chinese airforce (or what would be left of it) to be concerned about.
Of course, that information will remain classified until the end of time because if it ever got out Japan would throw a massive fit and demand compensation and it would give the 'Remove Kadena' crowd a big propaganda boost.
Could Japan be a nuclear power? Very easily, could it have become a nuclear power between the end of WWII and now? Only if the United States was removed from the Pacific, and as we've seen, that's not exactly easy. Perhaps in the aftermath of a US/USSR nuclear exchange, but even then Japan would have received its own presents from both the PRC and the USSR in equal measure so it would have to recover before it could get a program in gear, but with the US reduced in effectiveness Japan would be forced to develop something to defend itself while it builds up its military forces. Although the PRC would have very little to actually invade Japan with in terms of naval forces, so Japan could sit pretty for a while with only the Chinese airforce (or what would be left of it) to be concerned about.
From Wikipedia. In 2011, former Minister of Defense Shigeru Ishiba explicitly backed the idea of Japan maintaining the capability of building nuclear weapons:
"I don't think Japan needs to possess nuclear weapons, but it's important to maintain our commercial reactors because it would allow us to produce a nuclear warhead in a short amount of time ... It's a tacit nuclear deterrent"
Okinawa was officially occupied by the U.S. until 1972, and the Bonins (Iwo Jima, Chichi Jima, etc.) until 1968....there were nukes on all of them. Iwo's airfield was built to be a bomber dispersal field in the '50s, and there was Navy weapons storage on Chichi (probably Nuclear Depth Bombs and Regulus cruise missiles). Okinawa, now...SAC at Kadena (B-47s on rotational deployment) along with TAC squadrons, Army Nike-Hercules SAMs, Navy weapons storage, you get the idea.
Nuclear latency is true in an OTL standpoint. If Japan's is threatened with nukes, they have no choice but to build especially that US and her allies support Japan's building of nukes just to negate China. Just like the ban in export of military hardware in OTL. It would have not come down had it not for Chinese aggression or if you are a China fan, Chinese refusal to recognize status quo and international law.
It's not just conceivable, it actually happened! I read an article about this in the New Yorker a number of years ago. I don't recall the details, but it said that Japan -- despite public assurances to the contrary -- has American nuclear weapons on its soil ready for deployment.