I'm surprised Cuba hasn't come up yet. They sent their armed forces around the world during the Cold War and antagonized the USA a lot. They're also one of the few communist run states to survive the fall of the Berlin wall and collapse of the Soviet Union. Seems like they're a perfect candidate for a pariah state.
AHC: North Korea-esque "rogue state" in Latin America
- Thread starter Whiteshore
- Start date
You need to change things like the European reaction to US sanctions, which was basically tell their companies that the US could stuff it if it tries to secondary sanction their companies for doing business with Cuba. The US promptly withdrew the threats to do so.
Lot harder to become a pariah state when that happens. A wealthy region like Europe still willing to do business with Cuba is a massive counter against doing so.
Which also means it is unlikely Cuba would have become one. Europe was depending on the US to defend against the USSR and was still willing to outright tell it's companies to ignore the US sanctions on Cuba by literally passing laws saying so.
This was the first possibility that came to my mind. A Shining Path-ruled Peru would easily become a psychotic dictatorship, one that would probably engage in Khmer Rouge-style atrocities. I don't think such a regime would last long; assuming it isn't overthrown internally, then it would probably be deposed by a U.S.-led multinational military intervention. But even a short-lived Shining Path regime would inflict insurmountable damage upon Peruvian society. The Khmer Rouge were only in power for four years, and during that time they exterminated a quarter of Cambodia's population.
The economies of Latin America aren't diversified like North Korea and when the massive sanctions come would utterly implode. It doesn't take a genius to realise that when your country's main export is coffee (or copper, or bananas, or whatever) that when nobody wants to buy your product (because your country is a horrible abuser of human rights) and the price of said product has gone way down for one reason or another (natural economic fluctuations), that you are utterly screwed economically and you'd get a civil war where the United States is backing the opposition. The very fact the United States is there and has always seen Latin America as its backyard will make things very difficult. Also, the ability to develop nuclear weapons (North Korea's greatest asset) is going to be limited.
This would probably have to be a regime emerging from left-wing forces, since your right-wing Pinochet, Somoza, etc. types have to answer to the United States, not to mention how rogue state status is very bad for business, thus they'd inevitably get removed by the elites in their country or in the United States. Although if you went back far enough I could see some sort of Falangist-esque clerical fascism thing emerging which could co-opt a lot of support which would otherwise be socialist and still be palatable to the elites. There's still the economic issues which make it very difficult to evolve into a North Korea-type state, and not to mention the issue of the United States. If North Korea had no counterweight to the United States, it would've been gone decades ago. Who will defend our Latin American Falangists from the US? The only real option is Nazi Germany after a victory in WWII, who would support this country as a means of power projection and such. Obviously this country would play up the national socialist/fascist angle of their ideology to appeal to the Nazis in this time. But the question is--can this country resist constant meddling from the United States and American-supported neighbours, and can the Nazis successfully be to them like the Soviets were to Cuba?
This would probably have to be a regime emerging from left-wing forces, since your right-wing Pinochet, Somoza, etc. types have to answer to the United States, not to mention how rogue state status is very bad for business, thus they'd inevitably get removed by the elites in their country or in the United States. Although if you went back far enough I could see some sort of Falangist-esque clerical fascism thing emerging which could co-opt a lot of support which would otherwise be socialist and still be palatable to the elites. There's still the economic issues which make it very difficult to evolve into a North Korea-type state, and not to mention the issue of the United States. If North Korea had no counterweight to the United States, it would've been gone decades ago. Who will defend our Latin American Falangists from the US? The only real option is Nazi Germany after a victory in WWII, who would support this country as a means of power projection and such. Obviously this country would play up the national socialist/fascist angle of their ideology to appeal to the Nazis in this time. But the question is--can this country resist constant meddling from the United States and American-supported neighbours, and can the Nazis successfully be to them like the Soviets were to Cuba?
Aphrodite
Banned
The big problem is that most Latin American dictatorships were collective affairs. The militaries formed juntas- councils that had each armed service head. With few exceptions, Chile being one, these service chiefs were still rotated. In Brazil, around 20 men served on the Junta over time. The fanatical one man rule that a North Korean state needs is lacking
You'll need a dictatorship coming from a mass movement. Peron, Chavez or Allende would be good candidates on the continent.
The islands are even better as they are easily isolated from the rest of the world Castro, Duvalier in Haiti and Trujillo in the Dominican Republic are prime candidates. Haiti has a lot of possibilities. Voodooism rivals the Catholic Church- and destroying the Church is essential for a North Korean type regime to emerge. The Catholic Church's hierarchical and trans national nature makes it impossible for a regime to take over
So have Duvalier fill the tontons with voodooists who can be whipped into anti-Catholic frenzy to destroy its influence.
Next, Baby Doc needs to want the job but at the regime stays in the family OTL.
Now you have to make the country strong enough that America doesn't swat it like a fly. Impossible with Haiti though you might make it strong enough that the cost would be too high for the Americans
You'll need a dictatorship coming from a mass movement. Peron, Chavez or Allende would be good candidates on the continent.
The islands are even better as they are easily isolated from the rest of the world Castro, Duvalier in Haiti and Trujillo in the Dominican Republic are prime candidates. Haiti has a lot of possibilities. Voodooism rivals the Catholic Church- and destroying the Church is essential for a North Korean type regime to emerge. The Catholic Church's hierarchical and trans national nature makes it impossible for a regime to take over
So have Duvalier fill the tontons with voodooists who can be whipped into anti-Catholic frenzy to destroy its influence.
Next, Baby Doc needs to want the job but at the regime stays in the family OTL.
Now you have to make the country strong enough that America doesn't swat it like a fly. Impossible with Haiti though you might make it strong enough that the cost would be too high for the Americans
Or a desire to avoid "regime change" (read: getting invaded by the US).
I think having both sides of Hispaniola at odds with each other is essential, so let us keep these two regimes. Black versus white (though both countries having various shades, so it might come down more to language) with both sides backing various smaller Caribbean islands depending upon that. If the 100,000 Jews Trujillo asked for came in, as with some other refugees, then the Dominican Republic would likely also have a lot of sway with Israel, being
Not really a precedent for it. Too focused on exports. Then again, might not be the worst country to choose. Them and the Guianas can be culturally isolated from their neighbors with the right POD.
The Shining Path of the 1980s-90s in Peru WAS bats*** crazy. In its base areas it herded peasants into coca producing slave plantations. It whipped up the only guerrilla war in Latin America in which the guerrillas committed more war crimes than the army and police. Its core combatants were part of a cult led by "Comrade Gonzalo," a philosophy professor. However, the majority of the Peruvian people despised the Shining Path and it had very little support from the left in Latin America or elsewhere; Fidel Castro denounced it and the Soviet Union sold Peru the weapons to fight Shining Path. If the Pol Pot style neo-Maoist cult had come close to taking power, the U.S. would have provided support for countries surrounding Peru to help out Peru's military forces (the situation never got that bad, however).
In Guatemala in 1982-83, the military dictator Rios Montt used a campaign against a small communist insurgency as the pretext for slaughtering tens of thousands of peasants, mostly indigenous peoples in the highlands. He burned their villages and herded the survivors into "model communities" where good treatment was often dependent on renouncing Catholicism (which Rios Montt associated with liberation theology) and becoming Protestants. Rios Montt and his key advisors belonged to a cult-like Protestant group that would get strong support from the Rev. Pat Robertson and other far-right U.S. evangelicals who helped to persuade the Reagan administration to back Rios Montt. However, Rios Montt's war on the Catholic church turned the majority of the military officers, who were Catholics, against him (he even insulted Pope John Paul, who was hardly a friend of liberation theology). He was replaced by military officers who continued to torture and kill albeit on a smaller scale and without the special fanaticism of Rios Montt's cult.
In both cases, the leaders of these appalling movements were self-defeating individuals, not unlike North Korean leader Kim Il-sung (I am referring to his decision to invade South Korea in 1950). To make them succeed they would have needed powerful outside support over an extended period (as North Korea received from both the Soviets and the Chinese). Rios Montt received short-term support from the U.S. but so brutal were his methods that U.S. support probably could not have been sustained for a long enough period to enable him to transform Guatamalan society along cult lines. The Shining Path was isolated in the Andes with no strong ally.
In my opinion, to create a North Korea style society anywhere in Latin America would require either the intervention of ASBs or a POD in the 19th century. Perhaps a good POD would be at the time of the War of Canudos (1896-7) when a community in the backlands of Bahia led by a spiritual prophet fought against the Brazilian government and its inept army. One could have the backlands community (30,000 people at its height) getting outside support as from Germany perhaps or getting contemporary weapons from an ASB. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Canudos
In Guatemala in 1982-83, the military dictator Rios Montt used a campaign against a small communist insurgency as the pretext for slaughtering tens of thousands of peasants, mostly indigenous peoples in the highlands. He burned their villages and herded the survivors into "model communities" where good treatment was often dependent on renouncing Catholicism (which Rios Montt associated with liberation theology) and becoming Protestants. Rios Montt and his key advisors belonged to a cult-like Protestant group that would get strong support from the Rev. Pat Robertson and other far-right U.S. evangelicals who helped to persuade the Reagan administration to back Rios Montt. However, Rios Montt's war on the Catholic church turned the majority of the military officers, who were Catholics, against him (he even insulted Pope John Paul, who was hardly a friend of liberation theology). He was replaced by military officers who continued to torture and kill albeit on a smaller scale and without the special fanaticism of Rios Montt's cult.
In both cases, the leaders of these appalling movements were self-defeating individuals, not unlike North Korean leader Kim Il-sung (I am referring to his decision to invade South Korea in 1950). To make them succeed they would have needed powerful outside support over an extended period (as North Korea received from both the Soviets and the Chinese). Rios Montt received short-term support from the U.S. but so brutal were his methods that U.S. support probably could not have been sustained for a long enough period to enable him to transform Guatamalan society along cult lines. The Shining Path was isolated in the Andes with no strong ally.
In my opinion, to create a North Korea style society anywhere in Latin America would require either the intervention of ASBs or a POD in the 19th century. Perhaps a good POD would be at the time of the War of Canudos (1896-7) when a community in the backlands of Bahia led by a spiritual prophet fought against the Brazilian government and its inept army. One could have the backlands community (30,000 people at its height) getting outside support as from Germany perhaps or getting contemporary weapons from an ASB. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/War_of_Canudos
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None of these had totalitarian tendences, alltought they did had authoritarian ones
The men that this thread needs is this fella: Francisco Campos
Brazilian minnister of interior and justice, and leader the pro german faction during the Vargas government (I don't need to tell you from who he copied his hairstyle)
There is even a PoD for that, in 1937 he was responsible for the creation of the Brazilian New State dictatorship, he wrote the dictatorship constitution based of the polish 2nd republic. Campos pressed Vargas into accepting it with the following phrase: "The New State is coming, with Vargas, without Vargas, and if you resist, against Vargas" (Quoted from "Artes da Política - Diálogo Com Amaral Peixoto", Amaral Peixoto was one of the main Vargas supporters). If Vargas refuses to take over the dictatorship in 1937, then you get Campos, he was a declared fascist (he even led some paramilitary companies in the early 30s based on the brownshirts) on control of the brazilian government, he was also not stupid to join WWII knowing that Germany would lose, and so he would end isolated after the war and build his right wing version of North Korea, unless he gets couped as the war ends (something very likely to happen)
Cold War Cuba fits the bill here. Castro was on record multiple times for wanting to nuke the US. Even the Kremlin was shocked by his willingness to die for the cause. They were certainly aggressive towards its neighbors, and Angola, and I think it qualifies as a repressive regime.