ThePest179
Banned
Your goal, if you choose to accept it, is to have NATO peacefully collapse any time after it is created. Bonus points if you can do it after 2014.
AHC: NATO collapses peacefully
- Thread starter ThePest179
- Start date
In the mid-'90s, following the collapse of the Warsaw Pact and the end of the Cold War, the Germans end the leases on all foreign military bases, leading to the withdrawal of US, British and Canadian forces from Germany. American forces are also soon withdrawn from all the other European states into which they'd been deployed.
NATO does not get involved in the Yugoslav Civil War, instead allowing the conflict to burn itself out. This sets the pattern for both the remainder '90s and beyond.
By the end of the '90s the perception is that the need for the North Atlantic Treaty has long since receded, and the treaty itself is dissolved on it's 50th anniversary.
Events of the early '00s cement an isolationist world view in both the United States and among the nations of Western Europe.
A decade later the Russian resurgence is not really considered to be a threat to anyone outside of Eastern Europe.
NATO does not get involved in the Yugoslav Civil War, instead allowing the conflict to burn itself out. This sets the pattern for both the remainder '90s and beyond.
By the end of the '90s the perception is that the need for the North Atlantic Treaty has long since receded, and the treaty itself is dissolved on it's 50th anniversary.
Events of the early '00s cement an isolationist world view in both the United States and among the nations of Western Europe.
A decade later the Russian resurgence is not really considered to be a threat to anyone outside of Eastern Europe.
Given that NATO was specifically a counter to the Communist USSR, and that the 'new', 'reformed' and 'democratic' Russia objected loudly to the continuation of this anti-Russian alliance, I think it's entiely possible for NATO to disband. In fact, I suspect there was a 1 in 3 chance (wild ballpark) of that happening. Obviously it didnt, but they spent a couple of years coasting on institutional inertia before successfully repurposing.
As RCAF Brat mentioned above, iotl, the Yugoslav intervention was a major part in that successful reinvention. If the intervention either doesnt happen, or happens under different auspices (UN, WEU, CSCE, Partnership for Peace, ad hoc coalition), then the chances of NATO disbanding go way up.
Orville_third
Banned
A few more ideas that could lead to a collapse of NATO:
1956: The US and Canada withdraw after France and the UK continue operations in the Suez Crisis. USSR threat of nuclear retaliation against NATO results in German withdrawal from the alliance. (OTL Germany had joined not long prior. Canada brokered the peace deal, while Ike was opposed to the UK's actions.)
1967: US calls for NATO aid against Israel after the attack on the USS Liberty. Europe refuses.
1974: Cypriot War has UK siding against Turkey. NATO is split in response.
1986: US and Italy call for strikes on Libya after the attack on the USCG LORAN station at Lampedusa. Europe declines.
1995: Spain and Canada exchange fire, launching the Turbot War. The US and UK (and Ireland) join with Canada, while the rest of the EU allies with Spain. The Newlyn incident further escalates things. (The Newlyn was a UK fishing boat flying the Canadian flag in support of Canada, which was stopped by France.)
2011: Operation Unified Protector collapses after US Congress enforces War Powers Act regarding Libya, and several NATO members decline to continue support of the operation. (OTL, only eight NATO nations participated, and Robert Gates even said the lack of participation threatened the future of NATO.)
1956: The US and Canada withdraw after France and the UK continue operations in the Suez Crisis. USSR threat of nuclear retaliation against NATO results in German withdrawal from the alliance. (OTL Germany had joined not long prior. Canada brokered the peace deal, while Ike was opposed to the UK's actions.)
1967: US calls for NATO aid against Israel after the attack on the USS Liberty. Europe refuses.
1974: Cypriot War has UK siding against Turkey. NATO is split in response.
1986: US and Italy call for strikes on Libya after the attack on the USCG LORAN station at Lampedusa. Europe declines.
1995: Spain and Canada exchange fire, launching the Turbot War. The US and UK (and Ireland) join with Canada, while the rest of the EU allies with Spain. The Newlyn incident further escalates things. (The Newlyn was a UK fishing boat flying the Canadian flag in support of Canada, which was stopped by France.)
2011: Operation Unified Protector collapses after US Congress enforces War Powers Act regarding Libya, and several NATO members decline to continue support of the operation. (OTL, only eight NATO nations participated, and Robert Gates even said the lack of participation threatened the future of NATO.)
Will the USN not win this before it starts ? and will Europe (- Germany) really refuse to contribute token forces (and it will not go far due to US electorate anyway ?)
Do you not just make NATO a (insert proper Europeans
) + USA club ? Turkey just gets expelled for starting a fight ? Would this really break NATO will Europe not just add token forces and or just delay any help ? US + Italy will deal with it relatively quickly anyway ?
JSB
Wouldn't it make more sense to expel the Americans if Hanoi were bombed?