AHC: more aggressive Japanese expansion (1890~1905)

[raharris1973]

WI the Japanese allied with France in the Sino-French war?

In OTL the two danced around the idea of an alliance in 1885.

The problem was that France wanted to ally early, when they were not doing as well, but Japan was afraid to fight China then. But after the French did well, Japan wanted to join them, but the French no longer wanted or needed Japanese help. If we could somehow make for a period of overlapping interest in both France and Japan in an alliance, that could help Japan get Korea (and maybe Taiwan) 10 years early. And at the same time, the alliance with France provides diplomatic cover for Japan, making it less likely to face anything like the Triple Intervention, and the net effect is Japan feels pretty good never having had to back down and being allied to at the time the 2nd greatest naval power.

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If we were to trace the power comparison between China and Japan, it seems that the Chinese had a perceived superiority in their own eyes and in the eyes of 3rd parties in the 1880s, and even up until Japan defeated their fleet in 1894.

I think China, in terms of certain naval equipment, was ahead of Japan, simply because it had a bigger budget to work with. (Poor implementation of training and maintenance in fact erased this paper superiority)

However, I am thinking that China still must have only started acquiring modern ships and weapons only later than Japan, because in the 1870s, China was passive about Japanese actions in Korea and Taiwan, and the Ryukyus. China had a respectable record of dealing with non-European enemies, on land, in the 20 years after defeating the Taipings, crushing Muslim rebels and deterring the Russian occupation of Ili, but China seemed strangely passive about Japan's takeover of the Ryukyus.

In the 1870s Japan also seems to have been worthy of at least some respect by Europeans because when the Russians wanted to claim sole custody of Sakhalin, they were willing to trade the Kuril islands they held to Japan in order to get it. If they truly though Japan was a non-factor, the Russians would have just taken all Sakhalin and offered the Japanese nothing in return.

The thing about Japan before it's China and Russia wars is that it had not "proved itself" and logically would have been much weaker 10 or 20 years before, yet in terms of power projection, the Europeans were also weaker 10 or 20 years before. For instance, before they built up Qingdao and Port Arthur, the Germans and Russians were heavily dependent on the port facilities of -Yokohama, Japan to operate their fleets in the Pacific. So in that sense, Japan had a position of strength earlier on.

 

[LeX]

The Chinese side was also plagued by severe corruption. Sure, their ships were more powerful, but what's the use when each cannon only had a few shells? The money was stolen by corrupt officers.

 

[Tyr]

It was only the fluke of other people attacking them and proving to be utterly incompetent that led to Japan managing to expand as much as it did.

Japan allying itself with France is unlikely. Early on they made a point of trying to balance the influence of western powers so they wouldn't be drawn into the sphere of any of them. When the time did come for alliances they quite accurately saw the British as the most powerful nation.

In the 1870s Japan also seems to have been worthy of at least some respect by Europeans because when the Russians wanted to claim sole custody of Sakhalin, they were willing to trade the Kuril islands they held to Japan in order to get it. If they truly though Japan was a non-factor, the Russians would have just taken all Sakhalin and offered the Japanese nothing in return.

The British and French wouldn't have liked that.

 

[Grey Wolf]

IIRC the French did not face the Chinese Northern Fleet in battle because each Chinese fleet viewed itself as an independent entity not bound to come to the aid of the other. This fleet, of course, would have been the one to engage the Japanese.

Also, Korea has to be WON, it cannot be ceded. China is not going to give it away in a peace with France. Japan has to invade and do as well as it did in the 1890s

Best Regards
Grey Wolf

 

[raharris1973]

China's fear of Japan[edit]
Japan had taken advantage of China's distraction with France to intrigue in the Chinese protectorate state of Korea. In December 1884 the Japanese sponsored the 'Gapsin Coup', bringing Japan and China to the brink of war. Thereafter the Qing court considered that the Japanese were a greater threat to China than the French. In January 1885 the Empress Dowager directed her ministers to seek an honourable peace with France. Secret talks between the French and Chinese were held in Paris in February and March 1885, and the fall of Ferry's ministry removed the last remaining obstacles to a peace.[52]

The French were well aware of China's sensitivities regarding Japan, and as early as June 1883, in the wake of Rivière's death at Paper Bridge, began angling for an alliance with Japan to offset their precarious military position in Tonkin.[59] The French foreign minister Paul Challemel-Lacour believed that France "ought not to disdain the support which, at an appropriate moment, the attitude of Japan would be able to supply to our actions".[60] In order to court the Japanese government, France offered to support, against British opposition, Japan's pleas for revision of the unequal treaties of the Bakumatsu era, which provided extra-territoriality and advantageous tariffs to foreigners. Japan welcomed the offer of French support, but was reluctant to be drawn into a military alliance.[61] Japan was in effect quite worried of the military might China represented, at least on paper, at that time. As the situation in Annam deteriorated however, France was even more anxious to obtain Japanese help.[62]


After French difficulties in Taiwan, new attempts at negotiating an alliance were made with the Minister General Campenon meeting with General Miura Gorō, but Gorō remained ambiguous, encouraging France to continue to support Japan's drive for Treaty revision.[63] Hopes for an alliance were reawakened in December 1884 when a clash occurred between China and Japan in Korea, when Japan supported the Gapsin coup d'état by Kim Ok-gyun against the pro-Chinese Korean government, prompting Jules Ferry to request the French ambassador in Japan Sienkiewicz to approach the Japanese government with an offer.[64] Sienkiewicz however remained extremely negative to the point of refraining from communicating Ferry's proposal.[65] French interest faded in 1885 as the campaign in Tonkin progressed, while, on the contrary Japanese interest increased as the Japanese government and public opinion started to favour open conflict with China.[66] The Sino-French war ended however without an alliance coming to fruition.[67]

Also, Korea has to be WON, it cannot be ceded. China is not going to give it away in a peace with France. Japan has to invade and do as well as it did in the 1890s

No argument there- But Japan may be willing to fight for it (it had tried the Gapsin coup) and if Chinese ground forces are as corrupt as the fleets, Japan could think well of its odds.

 

[mlp]

How possible is it that, with a more aggressive Japan, it goes into direct warfare against Korea(and obviously wins)?

 

[raharris1973]

How possible is it that, with a more aggressive Japan, it goes into direct warfare against Korea(and obviously wins)?

Good question. I don't know. Was your thinking that if the Japanese chose to redeem the failure of the Gapsin coup with an invasion timed to coincide with the Sino-French war, the Japanese could just invade and occupy Korea without opposition from China (or Russia)?

 

[mlp]

Good question. I don't know. Was your thinking that if the Japanese chose to redeem the failure of the Gapsin coup with an invasion timed to coincide with the Sino-French war, the Japanese could just invade and occupy Korea without opposition from China (or Russia)?

Just posting the conversation we had in case other AH.com members wish to comment upon the scenario.

Thanks for bringing that up! This thread was part of my effort in trying to find out how to make my '12 republics of Korea' TL possibly work.
I certainly hope my POD and subsequent events are plausible, at least in your eyes.
How is an aggressive Japan related to my TL? It is because its belligerence achieves two things I find necessary:

1. A direct Korean-Japanese war, an essential quality to bring maximum effect in Korea for mobilising the Righteous Armies and independence movement against Japan;
2. An overly confident(and belligerent) Japan, leading it to search for different allies than OTL(with Britain being cautious about its amiable Anglo-American relations and America's fear against Japan's belligerence).

And with a POD in 1882, these are how the events unfold(up to 1894):
1882. The Imo military rebellion never happens(it happened OTL due to King Gojong's subordinates bullying the soldiers, the opposite of what the king requested). The soldiers are begrudged, but are pacified.

1884. The situation has worsened now, and even more soldiers are mad. (But without the Imo rebellion, there is less tension between Japan and China; the coup also gains more support from the moderates.) They start a revolt and start sacking the city.
The pro-Japanese radicals are totally caught by surprise but go through a pre-planned scheme with the Japanese embassy. Japanese troops quickly occupy each ministry and bureau, under the supposed 'necessary precautions'.
The Chinese troops present also move into Seoul; however, unlike the Japanese troops who are quietly waiting around government buildings, they go straight to the palace where the actual battle is being held. The royal family are caught in the crossfire and are dead. When the news reaches the starters of the Gapsin Coup, the radicals decide to establish a Republic.
With Korea now firmly out of Chinese hands, Japan is happy to leave Korea alone as a Republic. China is furious but is too busy with the Sino-French war. The rest of the world is skeptical a Republic would be stable and be able to establish a democracy upon such a 'medieval kingdom'.

The First Republic of the Republic of Korea lasted 10 years. During this time it tried its best to inform the public about the idea of a 'democracy' and 'rule without kings'. It modernised education, the military(including conscription), and law. The Kyungbok Palace was now the Presidential Palace, and the city of Seoul was slowly becoming westernised. The streets paved, sewage systems established, and brick buildings constructed were sprouting up and spreading like wildfire all across the city. With the nation opened up to free trade with minimal tariffs, even the most rustic towns felt the pulse of the global market and the strength of the world economy.
This was highly distasteful to the farmers in the southern regions. With the nation being tainted with 'barbaric westernisation', along with the suddenly decreasing price of domestic goods due to the free market, large numbers of people flocked to 'Eastern Religion', or 'Tonghak' for refuge. The idea of democracy the Republic tried to spread influenced the Tonghak religion - all humans are equal, and the world will inevitably become equal for all humans. Yet the ideology it spread became a seed of its own destruction, where initial efforts to quell the uprising failed and the farmers' revolt continued northward, to Korea.
With foreign press covering the issue, Lee Ha-eung(OTL Heungson Regent) openly supported the revolution from his exile in China, finding it his only chance to see himself become king before death. Back in Seoul, the President was initially confident, viewing the conscription system to work against the uprising; when it became evident that the conscripts themselves were turning against the government, however, it was too late and the Tonghak rebels were crossing the Han river.

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Now, even without the plausibility of this scenario taken into account, I cannot write the timeline more because I don't know how this will shape global politics. How will this influence politics in Japan? In China? How will this shift alliances? How will those, in turn, influence events in Korea? Other than commenting on the TL itself, please make speculations if possible - on how you think things will proceed from here, etc.
Perhaps this is too much to ask, but I hope the TL topic itself is interesting enough that you wouldn't feel so.
Sincerely Yours
Zeppelinair

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1. A direct Korean-Japanese war, an essential quality to bring maximum effect in Korea for mobilising the Righteous Armies and independence movement against Japan;

It seems to me that your Tonghak rising against a Republic that Japan viewed favorably could be a reasonable catalyst for a Korean-Japanese war.

Japan will be sensitive to the instability in Korea, even more so if Japanese lives and property are harmed. They may think that the Tonghaks are a stalking horse for Chinese influence.

Since you've had the the Korean republic last for 10 years, this places the time at 1894. Japan is pretty strong navally and militarily at this point, and probably has "earned" the end of extraterritoriality, and possibly tariff autonomy.

Japanese intervention to protect it's own interests (whether done by propping up the incumbent Korean President or not) would inflame Korean nationalism and cause a unification of "righteous armies".

The challenge in this scenario is how to prevent Japan from winning against any opposition it faces.

I would assume the Tonghaks were against Christian missionaries. The west in this circumstance is likely to favor the Japanese case in propping up a "progressive republic" against a "mob of mystics" to keep Korea open to international trade and missionary enterprise.

Now, western attitudes can turn against Japan if the Japanese end up alienating Korean supporters of republicanism or Christianity who are good at giving interviews with western journalists.

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2. An overly confident(and belligerent) Japan, leading it to search for different allies than OTL(with Britain being cautious about its amiable Anglo-American relations and America's fear against Japan's belligerence).

Unless you add something specific to your timeline, there's no special reason for Japanese-American antagonism.

To generate a Japanese-American antagonism, early Japanese successes in northeast Asia are probably not enough. Japan will have had to show more belligerence and ambition in the Pacific.

Perhaps what would do the trick would be a Japan that fought Spain and took over or satellite-ized the Spanish East Indies in a fight in the early 1890s. Japan probably had the naval might to do this by 1890.

Even this might not disturb the US and Britain too much about Japan. For Japan to really bother the United States, it may have to do something like send arms, troops or advisors to help the Hawaiian monarchs stop the American rebels on Hawaii.

This would be a gutsy move for Japan. But, if Japan had a lucky break in Korea in the mid-1880s as you propose, and spends the years 1885-1894 believing that the friendly Korean republic has Japan's "backyard" well in order, then Japan will A) be less worried about and focused on Korea and China, and therefore B) be more willing to be assertive in the Pacific.

If you want to set Japan on a path to alternate alliance in any case, well, their time-coincident intervention in Korea in the 1880s can rekindle a Franco-Japanese romance. And despite skepticism throughout the west about a "Korean Republic", some in France will embrace the idea and think Japan has been on the side of progress. Meanwhile, while it will not trump European concerns, Russia will at least mildly dislike the idea of a Korean Republic.

If Hawaii is a focus of greater American-Japanese tension, because of immigration issues, China (and Koreans) might actually sympathize more with Japan on the case, because Japan is standing up to the whites who can be fairly portrayed as trying to limit or exclude all Asians from opportunity.

Likewise- Japanese intervention in Korea in the mid-1880s, even if China does not actively resist, will anger China. However, if Japan beats Spain in a war soon after France defeats China, Beijing may come to admire Japan a bit.

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How will this influence politics in Japan?

Hmm, maybe a Japan that is a partner of sorts with France, while simultaneously disturbing the US (and indirectly Britain) takes the Ito Hirobumi line of trying to seek compromise with Russia. Maybe Tokyo and St. Pete agree to an informal division of Korea into respective spheres of influence.

Domestically, maybe the creation of a Korean republic, and ties with France, lead to somewhat greater strength for people favoring more parliamentary control and a wider franchise, and removes some of the mystique of the Prussian-style constitution.

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In China?

In China, a lot depends on whether and how the Chinese try to reassert influence in Korea. If they make a strong push to restore influence, they could end up fighting the Japanese in the middle 1890s and largely converge with the history of OTL.

Of course, there may be substantial differences earlier. For instance, on seeing China beaten by France, and seeing Japan displace its Korean vassal dynasty, Russia might see an opportunity to to move against China, possibly in northern Manchuria (for a railroad concession) or the Ili valley in Xinjiang, or in Outer Mongolia. This may set off a spiral of competitive concession building with the Germans, British and French also taking part in grabbing or expanding leased ports.

In domestic terms in China, maybe the Qing inability to do anything about Korea prevents Yuan Shikai from building up his political-military prestige.

Not sure what else it would do, so much depends on whether there is a Sino-Japanese war or not, or if a late 1880s scramble for concessions provokes an anti foreign movement like the Boxers in China 10 years early, or simultaneously with the Tonghak rising (or perhaps a Chinese version of Tonghak)

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How will this shift alliances?

Explored above.

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How will those, in turn, influence events in Korea?

I don't see the external or changed alignments of Japan or China internationally changing Korea much internally. Korea's internal politics will be shaped much more by whether Japan is skillful and tolerated enough that they don't alienate all their Korean allies.

The bilateral Korean-Japanese interaction will matter much more in Korea than the wider net of alliances around the world.

Other than commenting on the TL itself, please make speculations if possible - on how you think things will proceed from here, etc.

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Thank you for the comments! It seems I would need to explain the plan further in order for everything to makes sense; forgive me for restraining more information. I was trying to make my question short.
There will be many more coups before 1905, my planned time for the First Korean-Japanese war. These are the following republics during the time:
1. The First Republic (1884~1894)[pro-Japanese]
explained.
2. Intermissionary Kingdom (1894~1897)[pro-Chinese]
explained. There was a Sino-Japanese war during the Donghak Revolution, which was inconclusive(stalemate, Japanese victory OTL). Due to this, the status quo of a Donghak-led government is in place.
3. Second Republic (1897~1903)[pro-Japanese]
Japan sets up another coup for a pro-Japanese government. Liberals form a opposition party and operate the 'People's Joint Association', a large floor for public debate. Unsuccessful crackdown on this institution leads to chaos, and another coup.
4. Third Republic (1903~1905)[Neutral]
Fearing Japan's general expansion of spheres of influence(Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Hawaii), foreign nations stop Japan from doing anything in Korea(no Anglo-Japanese treaty of alliance); only after rise of militarists within Japan in 1904, the Empire of Japan prepares for war and invades Korea in the same year.
5. First Japanese occupation (1905~1919)[Japanese colony]
Righteous armies form en masse and escape north into Jiandao, away from Japanese presence. For control of Manchuria, Japan starts the Second Sino-Japanese War(not Russia because Japan's idea of military superiority is China<Russia<Germany; only after winning over China will Japan try to have a war with Russia. This is exactly why Japan OTL had war with all 3 nations in sequence), new Chinese republic is defeated tremendously, and Russia fears further Japanese incursion into their spheres of influence in China.
First World War must be as follows: (these are the bare requirements, hopefully achievable with my POD)
1. Japo-Russian conflict (most probably started by Russia)
2. Japo-American conflict (due to alliances and Japan spreading over Pacific)
3. Japan must lose. (so Korea can be independent again)
(A final note is that I do not believe Japan will try to side with France - they sided with Britain OTL. France's tremendous loss during the Franco-German war was keenly noted by Japan and they preferred Germany over France since then.)

I have further plans up to the present day(2010), but I would like to stop here so we can discuss the plausibilities of this scenario.
Thanks for reading,
Zeppelinair

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this does lead me to ask, when does Japan acquire Taiwan in the TL, because although the first Sino-Japanese war is considered a stalemate, there's a reference to Japanese expansionism in Taiwan before the next war with China starts.

Also, when and how in your TL do we see the Pacific (especially Philippine) expansions take place?

I don't think your TL as described strains plausibility. You'll just need to explain in detail a lot of the events and relationships to get the outcome of the alternate WWI you want.

The First Sino-Japanese War becomes a stalemate due to Japan's pyrrhic victory - they took over Taiwan, but that was a token force and the rest of the army was forced to surrender after being surrounded by Chinese forces. Either that or they had stalemate in battle.
Spanish government in the Philippines is toppled a bit before the beginning of the Spanish-American War due to popular revolution. While America was sending its troops over to the Philippines, Japan did what America's job was OTL in 1898.
That detail, obviously, is the issue - I can guess as much, but people are more wiling to criticise than cooperate. I was hoping you may be able to help form at least the situation up to our TTL World War One.
Sincerely yours
Zeppelinair

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I am not quite sure what you are asking for. I do not really have knowledge to script out one-by-one what happens in all the timeline's Japanese cabinets or Qing imperial factional maneuvers. I can just give general ideas about what happens in Japanese and Chinese politics.

I have a few suggestions below, that take me to about 1900, not yet all the way to WWI, which looks like it ends in 1919 and maybe starts around 1915, based on what you've provided so far.

1. A direct Korean-Japanese war, an essential quality to bring maximum effect in Korea for mobilising the Righteous Armies and independence movement against Japan;
.....
With Korea now firmly out of Chinese hands, Japan is happy to leave Korea alone as a Republic. China is furious but is too busy with the Sino-French war. The rest of the world is skeptical a Republic would be stable and be able to establish a democracy upon such a 'medieval kingdom'.

1884- first Korean Republic – Japan considers it a win, because China loses influence (Japan possibly threatens to declare war if China interferes with Republic, or France threatens to widen the war. This deters China from getting involved..)

The First Republic of the Republic of Korea lasted 10 years. During this time it tried its best to inform the public about the idea of a 'democracy' and 'rule without kings'. It modernised education, the military(including conscription), and law.
......
With foreign press covering the issue, Lee Ha-eung(OTL Heungson Regent) openly supported the revolution from his exile in China (this is still late Qing China), finding it his only chance to see himself become king before death. Back in Seoul, the President was initially confident, viewing the conscription system to work against the uprising; when it became evident that the conscripts themselves were turning against the government, however, it was too late and the Tonghak rebels were crossing the Han river.

----(during the first Republic, Korea and China may support dissidents and exiles opposed to each other. For example, the Heungson Regent is in Qing China, but anti-Qing Chinese rebels like Sun Yat-sen may be inspired by the creation of the Korean republic and be welcomed by its government.

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Now, even without the plausibility of this scenario taken into account, I cannot write the timeline more because I don't know how this will shape global politics.
How will this influence politics in Japan?

Japan will be relatively relaxed during the 1884-1894 period. The Tonghak and monarchical revolution in Korea will disturb them.

The Prime Minister-ship alternated between men like Ito Hirobumi, Yamagata Aritomo, Saioji Kinmochi and others of the genro elder statesmen class. But I don’t know enough detail to say that altered events in Korea so that one guy becomes Prime Minister instead of the other.

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In China?

The idea of a Chinese Republic gains a boost from the success of the Korean Republic. But the success of the Tonghak is a boost to Chinese reactionary & millenarian movements, like the Boxers.

Let’s say this inspires something like the Boxer rebellion in 1896, that is crushed by an international intervention (Europeans, American and Japanese) in 1897. That work for you?

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How will this shift alliances?

1884-1894 there were no formal alliances in east asia yet, and the changes in Asia by themselves are not enough to change the dynamics of European alliances.

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How will those, in turn, influence events in Korea?

The defeat of the “Boxers” in China in 1897 humiliates China and creates recognition of the need to reform. It also gives Japan more self-confidence and makes reactionary millenarianism look untenable. This emboldens the Japanese to support the Republican coup that occurs in Korea in 1897

Next I have to figure out how to get to your WWI line-up.

Meanwhile, from 1884 through 1897, the different situation in northeast Asia has knock-on effects in the Philippines. Japan, since it feels more secure on it’s Korean flank in the years 1884-1894, and does not have a reason to expect a war against China, is more southern and navally oriented. Japan gives more aid to Filipino rebels. Filipino rebels may also take some heart in this time from the Korean republic example.

By 1896, rebels control the Philippines outside of some isolated Spanish garrisons.

Japan puts pressure on Spain to grant the Philippines independence and sell Micronesia to Japan.

1897 is the year of the suppression of the “Boxers” and the republican counter-coup in Korea. Successfully resolving that makes Japan even more confident in its ability to pressure the Spanish.

1898- the Spanish-American war happens on schedule. But, in the ATL, a Japanese task force is ready to act as soon as it starts, moving to occupy the Philippines and Guam before the Americans can. After being beaten by the Japanese in the Pacific and the Americans in the Caribbean, Spain concedes defeat, and formally grants the Philippines independence and sells the rest of the Spanish East Indies to Japan.


.....and that's all I've got for now. I don't want to continue unless this kind of thing is helpful. I have no plausibility problems with your scenario.

What did you want next, an outline of how Russia starts WWI against Japan? something else?

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I was wondering what the Russians would be doing in Manchuria - they are seemingly quiet TTL(or we just forgot about them).

I did forget about them until you reminded me. It seems to me that the Russians are going to become active after the earlier alternate Boxer rebellion of 1896-1897. They’ll start out as a member of the international coalition. But, from that point, they have the option of occupying Manchuria as they did after OTL’s Boxer Rebellion. The establishment of 3. Second Republic (1897~1903)[pro-Japanese], would only encourage the Russians to hold down Manchuria. – From there, Russia’s best move is to woo the Korean, and you could have the third, neutral Republic of Korea as the fruit of that policy.

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“What would be their best course of action? Would Russia go for war against Japan over Manchuria/Korea before WWI? During WWI?”

Before WWI would give them the most logical excuse, so about 1905, where Russia declares war to protest the Japanese establishment of the Korean colonial dependency.

…but, since you wished originally to have WWI start with the Russians moving against the Japanese, then we could say that the Russians do not go to outright war over the Japanese Korean protectorate, but build up their forces in Manchuria and host Korean exiles.

Perhaps WWI (the Far East portion) starts in 1914 or 1915 after an alternate Chinese Republican revolution that the Russians see as pro-Japanese. The Russian reaction is perhaps to set up a rump Manchurian state (or Manchurian-Mongolian-Xinjiang states with the Qing still ruling there). Russia claims the overthrow of the Qing separates China from Manchuria.

Meanwhile, this kicks Chinese nationalism into high gear against Russia, and Russia sees Japan as encouraging Chinese nationalism.

As a result, in 1914 or 1915 Russia convinces itself that an assertion of power against Japan, in Korea and possibly the northern islands, will deflate the Japanese and intimidate the Chinese.

They (the Russians) my be particularly bold about making demands, issuing ultimatums or directly attacking the Japanese if this period coincides with Japanese-Dutch tensions over the East Indies, or if somehow, at this time Hawaii is still contested in 1914 or 1915. (It’s a tall order to delay American annexation of Hawaii this long. Perhaps Hawaii is annexed by 1900-ish anyway, but the US-Japanese tensions are just over suffrage and naturalization rights of Japanese in Hawaii, which would create a heavily Japan-influenced territorial government Washington is afraid of).

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This decision, I presume, would greatly affect Japan's alliances(if it continues to feel the Russian threat it would ally against Russia and go for Germany - the British may have to be neutral or join the war late).
Sincerely
Zeppelinair

Nearly every change suggested so far by you or me has the result of making Japan more confident, and thus less covetous of a binding alliance with Britain, or any European power. This is basically because in this scenario there never is a Triple Intervention to humiliate Japan.

If you are keeping your idea of a Chinese defeat of the Japanese army in Korea, or a Sino-Japanese stalemate (1895-ish, were you thinking?) even then, that does not create the great urgency for a British alliance, because the problem country there is China, not the European rivals of Britain (Russia, Germany, France).

Now, on being attacked by the Russians, Japan will of course want to have a German alliance. The trick at this point in time will be how to give Germany (and Austria-Hungary and perhaps others) a good reason to fight Russia at this time. In OTL, they were happy to have Russia focus on the Far East, as they saw that as likely to make Russia more cautious in Europe. By the same token, if Austro-Russian relations have soured significantly between 1897 and 1915, this makes Russia less likely to be aggressive against Japan. In OTL, relative harmony with Russia's western neighbors created a permissive environment for Russia's emphasis on the Far East in the 1895-1905 decade.

So, it all looks like a stretch, but maybe something like this would work:

Russia expands its presence in Manchuria and investment in railways etc. aggressively from 1897 onward. The Japanese meanwhile support Republican allies in Korea.

By 1903, the Russians have the Trans-Siberian railroad built and follow a policy of wooing Korea and investing in there. That gains a positive response by some Koreans who are tired of excessive Japanese influence, which helps lead to the creation of the neutral Korean republic of 1903-1905.

In 1904, with a decent (but unofficial) hold on Manchuria and a Korea that is more independent of Japan, Russia feels pretty good and comfortable in the Far East for the moment.

As a result, Russia becomes more arrogant and demanding in Europe. Let's say this encourages Serbian aggressiveness in the Balkans in 1904, simultaneous with an early Young Turk revolution.

Russian support of Bulgarian independence and Serbia agitation (let's say the Karageorge's still take over in 1903) angers Austria and Germany by 1904, but does not lead to a war.

So, this time, when the Japanese intervene and make Korea a dependency in 1905, Germany and Austria diplomatically support Japan's move, while France and Russia oppose Japan's move. This aligns Japan with the Central Powers.

Japan gets even more confident from this connection, and Germany feels Japanese pressure on other powers is useful for Germany.

Somehow, war is avoided for the next ten years despite war scares and arms races. But when Germany faces a strike wave in 1914-1915 or more ethnic problems (Poles and Alsatians), and the Chinese revolution shakes things up (I proposed having it late 1914 or so) Russia decides it is time to throw Japan against the wall and that Germany is not well positioned to intervene.

Based on the outcome you were looking for (Japan getting kicked out of Korea by 1919), even if the Tsar is wrong and Germany fights on Japan's side (creating the alternate WWI) the German-Austrian-Japanese coalition still has to lose against the Russian coalition (which has France from the beginning and probably the US and UK).

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In terms of China, with the earlier Boxer Rebellion it seemed to me that China would see an earlier rise in the Republic(so not really a Xinhai Revolution, more like the Gengzi Revolution if in 1900).

Fair enough. I think that works. What do you mean by Gengzi? Is that another spelling for the allegedly reformist Emperor Guangxu?

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There can be a Japan-supported coup in 1914/5, which leads to Russia intervening, etc.

A Japanese-supported coup in China, against either a reformist monarchy or a republic?

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The Russia's plans idea is interesting and will certainly be added to the details. Do you think this general theme of history would lead Russia to be stronger or weaker than OTL?
Sincerely,
Zeppelinair

Despite a stronger potential position for Russia in the Far East, especially if Japan is at odds with and fighting both Russia and the USA in the 1910s, I would say a somewhat weaker Russia is more likely. Russia will not be learning lessons from the R-J war defeat, and the existence of a Pacific front, and possible delayed entry or Britain into the European war is going to mean less pressure applied to Germany, and therefore a Germany that comes out of WWI stronger.

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Here's an interesting question: did the R-J war lead to Army reforms, or Navy reforms?

For that you're going to have to ask someone else. I think it did, but I'm not sure. The main effect of the R-J war was to calm Russia down for a decade while it continued to build and grow. By 1914 they were rebuilding their navy. Their army was much larger by 1914, the French also had another decade of investing in their industry and Polish railways.

On the one hand, 1905 weakened the country by destabilizing the nation and giving revolutionaries practice, and making the Tsar extend reforms that he took back, alienating the middle classes further.

On the other hand, 1905 strengthened the regime by giving it practice in putting down revolution and encouraging reforms. Without 1905, Russia might have been more complacent and over-optimistic about winning any fights in Europe, and encountering the Germans in the field would have come as an even nastier shock.
All that said, I recommend you ask a few others.

 

[mlp]

Conversation reorganised above so it is more readable.
Please comment! I think it's an interesting idea to pursue.

 

[Beer]

Hi and greetings, zeppelinair!

The above scenario by raharris is interesting, but it will not give you the topic result, which he implies already.(... still has to lose...)

The moment the Central Powers can be sure that in the case of war with Russia Japan will fight the Russians in the Far East, their war planning will inevitably change. With Russia facing a two front war as Germany does, the CP can stay defensive in the West from the get go, throwing everything they have mobile against the Russians to topple them with the Japanese coming in from the Far East.
This means no Belgium, so no war entry of Italy later and a heavily delayed, if at all, war entry of Britain. OTL against far stronger and numerous opposition the Central Powers nearly won the war (with a bit more luck and/or political finesse would have won), in this ATL scenario they will win.

I think you need to put either the PoD earlier than 1870 or have another Great Power at least tacitly backing Japan to get your desired result.
As I wrote in our discussion in my TL, the Ultra-nationalists in OTL Japan in the late 19th century were a loudmouthed minority, but they still lost to the more moderate politicians. It took decades and a string of bad events happening to Nippon for the Ultras to come into power.

In my "Eisen, Blut und Fernhandel" TL there will come a time where Japan pursues her interests more aggressively, but only some time after the Tonkin-Gapsin-War.

 

[mlp]

Hi and greetings, zeppelinair!

The above scenario by raharris is interesting, but it will not give you the topic result, which he implies already.(... still has to lose...)

The moment the Central Powers can be sure that in the case of war with Russia Japan will fight the Russians in the Far East, their war planning will inevitably change. With Russia facing a two front war as Germany does, the CP can stay defensive in the West from the get go, throwing everything they have mobile against the Russians to topple them with the Japanese coming in from the Far East.
This means no Belgium, so no war entry of Italy later and a heavily delayed, if at all, war entry of Britain. OTL against far stronger and numerous opposition the Central Powers nearly won the war (with a bit more luck and/or political finesse would have won), in this ATL scenario they will win.

And it takes much more than just invading Siberia to defeat Russia. At least the route to Moscow from Europe is closer - attempting this would result in an extremely overextended Japan. And if the situation arises where Japan's war allies have "lost"(Germany throwing down its weapons) but Japan refuses to surrender its territory, a simple example after the First Sino-Japanese War can answer that question.
Furthermore both Japan and Germany will be fighting a different Russia from OTL. Note that, regardless of relative lack of finesse or military experience, Russia has the largest troops if mobilised on time.

I think you need to put either the PoD earlier than 1870 or have another Great Power at least tacitly backing Japan to get your desired result.

Being aware of Korea's position in your TL, I quite doubt they will even become independent.

As I wrote in our discussion in my TL, the Ultra-nationalists in OTL Japan in the late 19th century were a loudmouthed minority, but they still lost to the more moderate politicians. It took decades and a string of bad events happening to Nippon for the Ultras to come into power.

And despite their small size they were able to pressure Japan into an outburst of military expeditions around Asia even in the 1870s. Continued military success does not diminish their power - it will only increase them.

In my "Eisen, Blut und Fernhandel" TL there will come a time where Japan pursues her interests more aggressively, but only some time after the Tonkin-Gapsin-War.

I will be waiting to see how that goes.

 

[Beer]

And it takes much more than just invading Siberia to defeat Russia. At least the route to Moscow from Europe is closer - attempting this would result in an extremely overextended Japan. And if the situation arises where Japan's war allies have "lost"(Germany throwing down its weapons) but Japan refuses to surrender its territory, a simple example after the First Sino-Japanese War can answer that question.
Furthermore both Japan and Germany will be fighting a different Russia from OTL. Note that, regardless of relative lack of finesse or military experience, Russia has the largest troops if mobilised on time.

Hi!

Certainly it takes more than just invading Siberia to bring Russia down, but in this ATL Great War scenario Russai will lose too. Their strategic situation is worse than OTL by a margin. Siberia is a second front, even if not all important, St. Petersburg cannot neglect it either. So they have to split their forces. In addition they will have to fight far stronger Austro-German forces in the West. Unlike OTL, Germany can and will send most of her forces to the Eastern front, since in the West they need just a defensice screen. The CP are not illegally blockaded like in OTL on top of it.

 

[mlp]

Hi!

Certainly it takes more than just invading Siberia to bring Russia down, but in this ATL Great War scenario Russai will lose too. Their strategic situation is worse than OTL by a margin. Siberia is a second front, even if not all important, St. Petersburg cannot neglect it either. So they have to split their forces. In addition they will have to fight far stronger Austro-German forces in the West. Unlike OTL, Germany can and will send most of her forces to the Eastern front, since in the West they need just a defensice screen. The CP are not illegally blockaded like in OTL on top of it.

I'm too inexperienced on this area of history to fully comment on it, but I can say two things:
1. I don't see why Germany's strategic intent in Western Europe changes with Japan joining their side. Japan is that important a factor in the early 20th century?
2. Russia was only crippled because, essentially, it was unable to export grains. This may...not be the case TTL.
But of course the WWI idea for this TLIAD right now is extremely fluid, and I only need the objectives stated to be achieved in it:

First World War must be as follows: (these are the bare requirements, hopefully achievable with my POD)
1. Japo-Russian conflict (most probably started by Russia)
2. Japo-American conflict (due to alliances and Japan spreading over Pacific)
3. Japan must lose. (so Korea can be independent again)
(A final note is that I do not believe Japan will try to side with France - they sided with Britain OTL. France's tremendous loss during the Franco-German war was keenly noted by Japan and they preferred Germany over France since then.)

 

[Beer]

I'm too inexperienced on this area of history to fully comment on it, but I can say two things:
1. I don't see why Germany's strategic intent in Western Europe changes with Japan joining their side. Japan is that important a factor in the early 20th century?
2. Russia was only crippled because, essentially, it was unable to export grains. This may...not be the case TTL.
But of course the WWI idea for this TLIAD right now is extremely fluid, and I only need the objectives stated to be achieved in it:

Hi!

1)Believe me, Germany in the scenario above would have changed the war plans to an Eastern front focus. The Western Front focus of OTL came to be due to several, variable factors. In the scenario above, many of these variables now point east instead of west.
This has nothing to do how with mighty Japan is or could be, just a simple distraction of Russia would be enough. If Jaspan can/could throw more weight around, even better.
2) How do you come onto this small board? Russia had other pressing problems than just grain exports.
In the scenario above Japan (and Germany) will not lose, which is the reason I wrote, that you need another scenario or a different PoD.

 

[mlp]

Hi!

1)Believe me, Germany in the scenario above would have changed the war plans to an Eastern front focus. The Western Front focus of OTL came to be due to several, variable factors. In the scenario above, many of these variables now point east instead of west.
This has nothing to do how with mighty Japan is or could be, just a simple distraction of Russia would be enough. If Jaspan can/could throw more weight around, even better.
2) How do you come onto this small board? Russia had other pressing problems than just grain exports.
In the scenario above Japan (and Germany) will not lose, which is the reason I wrote, that you need another scenario or a different PoD.

Perhaps you are right. My knowledge is based on the discussion of other users on WWI-related threads and TLs, along with various Wikipedia articles. I am not an expert on this topic at all and I do not know whether or not you are wrong, or even whether I am right.
Other than changing the POD, however, I was wondering if there was a possible WWI scenario that fits the basic requirements that are outlined above. I would like to stick with the POD that I have for the moment.

 

[Beer]

Perhaps you are right. My knowledge is based on the discussion of other users on WWI-related threads and TLs, along with various Wikipedia articles. I am not an expert on this topic at all and I do not know whether or not you are wrong, or even whether I am right.
Other than changing the POD, however, I was wondering if there was a possible WWI scenario that fits the basic requirements that are outlined above. I would like to stick with the POD that I have for the moment.

Hi!

When it comes to WW1 a lot of mythmongering takes place, not limited to, but especially strong on the side of the former Entente powers. Many, I found out in a lot of discussions, will even deny their own nation´s documents if they don´t fit their worldview.
On our side the most prolific "mythmen" were the Dolchstoßlegendler and Fritz Fischer, one of the biggest airheads Germany ever produced. This Nazi- turned Communist propaganda pamphletist and his hairbrained conspiracy theory have been falsified several times over, but is still gladly used by Entente wankers to slur Germany and paint a wrong picture.

But that aside: I do not see a convincing WW1 scenario giving you the results you want, no matter if Japan is on the Central Powers or Entente side. The only nation really deeply pushing for taking Korea away from Japan would be Russia. And Russia, even in the Russia-friendliest scenario, will not win big enough in WW1 to get that through.

 

[raharris1973]

Tonkin-Gapsin-War.

Beer- your scenario has this? Tonkin is Vietnamese and Gapsin is Korean. Somebody gets into a simultaneous Vietnamese and Korean War? I really do need to start following the latest developments again in "Blut, Eisen..."!

 

[Beer]

Beer- your scenario has this? Tonkin is Vietnamese and Gapsin is Korean. Somebody gets into a simultaneous Vietnamese and Korean War? I really do need to start following the latest developments again in "Blut, Eisen..."!

Hi!

Yes, somebody does, unwillingly so. Thank you for the praise, readers are always welcome to my TLs!

 

[mlp]

But that aside: I do not see a convincing WW1 scenario giving you the results you want, no matter if Japan is on the Central Powers or Entente side. The only nation really deeply pushing for taking Korea away from Japan would be Russia. And Russia, even in the Russia-friendliest scenario, will not win big enough in WW1 to get that through.

I do not expect Russia to win. I do expect its allies to, however, and when Japan's coalition loses they will make sure Japan is forced to give back its conquered areas.

Beer- your scenario has this? Tonkin is Vietnamese and Gapsin is Korean. Somebody gets into a simultaneous Vietnamese and Korean War? I really do need to start following the latest developments again in "Blut, Eisen..."!

And may I mention that the conversations Beer, democracy101 and myself had over the issue of Korea in the former's TL is equally interesting. Brings up several issues that deserves some mulling over.

 

[Beer]

I do not expect Russia to win. I do expect its allies to, however, and when Japan's coalition loses they will make sure Japan is forced to give back its conquered areas.

Hi!

But Korea will not become independent after WW1 even in the worst case scenario for Japan. Korea would be given to Russia or another nation (depending on which side Japan lost), but definitely not independence for Korea.
Why do you think many former Entente nations are so deep in WW1 mythpeddling? They were supreme, conniving self-censored in Versailles and Trianon and know it today. Hence the propaganda to feel better about themselves.