Will Kürlich Kerl
Banned
Challenge: Have the Ming Dynasty in China fall to a European country instead of the Manchus.
AHC: Ming Dynasty falls to Europeans instead of Manchus
- Thread starter Will Kürlich Kerl
- Start date
Over-extend the Ming, and have the recently subjugated peoples rebell as a European force invades, and they worth with the Europeans. They get their homelands restored, parts of the old Chinese Empire, and the Europeans get the wealthy and populous core.
Ming extends to Manchuria, Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia, Burma, Mongolia, and Central Asia. When the Europeans get in a war they work with the strongest opposition to the Ming, march into China with them, take territory, then sideline their native allies.
Basically recreate the Spanish conquest of Mexico on a larger scale.
Technological advantages of any kind for the Europeans and bad luck for the Ming is always a bonus.
Ming extends to Manchuria, Korea, Japan, Southeast Asia, Burma, Mongolia, and Central Asia. When the Europeans get in a war they work with the strongest opposition to the Ming, march into China with them, take territory, then sideline their native allies.
Basically recreate the Spanish conquest of Mexico on a larger scale.
Technological advantages of any kind for the Europeans and bad luck for the Ming is always a bonus.
How and why the Hell would Ming want to expand they had enough with Dai Viet that they felt it wasn't worth it. Why would they want to deal with horse nomads, feuding samurai clans of their youngest brother, Korea their younger brother. Then more large open steppes and tropical jungles. I don't see Europeans being able to take over China unless you have the Spanish invade during the great upheaval that happened when the Manchus invaded, but then have them fall apart so they don't win.
ASB - the Brits only pulled off the conquest of India because of the Post Mughal Balkanization. Unless the collapse of the Ming Dynasty resulted in significant Balkanization, I don't think this can happen. On the other hand, if the mid 17th Century collapse of the Ming Dynasty resulted in another warring states period, there is a two to three century window for a European power to pull off another British conquest of India.
By the collapse of the Ming Dynasty, the Spanish were a declining power. There is no way they can pull off the feat that the Conquistadors pulled of in South and Central America. For one, they don't have the advantage of disease. Heck, the Spanish couldn't even hold on to their North African conquests at their height, which was right next door. Their chances of conquering even a fragmented Post-Ming China is ASB. They couldn't defeat the Dutch or Portugese revolt.
It is completely ASB for the Spanish or Portugese of the 16th Century and early 17th Century to stand a chance of conquering Japan, let alone mainland China. I would go as far as to claim that even the prospect of a Portuguese or Spanish conquest of any part of East Asia is the equivalent of an Early Moden Sealion. Complete ASB.
So long as China remains unified, there is no chance that any pre late 19th Century European power can make it a colony. The manpower needed (and the means to ship in that manpower) to hold China is too much, unless they can conquer it piece by piece. In-fact, British India only came to be because the British spent a eighty years slowly extending the influence on the Sub-continent. From the Battle of Plassey in 1757 to the 1843 conquest of Sindh, it took the British nearly a century to really create British India. Unless a Post-Ming China fragments rather than a rapid dynastic changeover to the Qing, there's no way any European power can do what the OP suggest until the 19th Century.
And even if Post-Ming China fragments, I'm not sure whether a European power could pull off the same feat to China that the British did in the late 18th century to India.
By the collapse of the Ming Dynasty, the Spanish were a declining power. There is no way they can pull off the feat that the Conquistadors pulled of in South and Central America. For one, they don't have the advantage of disease. Heck, the Spanish couldn't even hold on to their North African conquests at their height, which was right next door. Their chances of conquering even a fragmented Post-Ming China is ASB. They couldn't defeat the Dutch or Portugese revolt.
It is completely ASB for the Spanish or Portugese of the 16th Century and early 17th Century to stand a chance of conquering Japan, let alone mainland China. I would go as far as to claim that even the prospect of a Portuguese or Spanish conquest of any part of East Asia is the equivalent of an Early Moden Sealion. Complete ASB.
So long as China remains unified, there is no chance that any pre late 19th Century European power can make it a colony. The manpower needed (and the means to ship in that manpower) to hold China is too much, unless they can conquer it piece by piece. In-fact, British India only came to be because the British spent a eighty years slowly extending the influence on the Sub-continent. From the Battle of Plassey in 1757 to the 1843 conquest of Sindh, it took the British nearly a century to really create British India. Unless a Post-Ming China fragments rather than a rapid dynastic changeover to the Qing, there's no way any European power can do what the OP suggest until the 19th Century.
And even if Post-Ming China fragments, I'm not sure whether a European power could pull off the same feat to China that the British did in the late 18th century to India.
I'm not sure how Ming China would fall to a European country - it is simply too strong. They're about even technologically (assuming 1640's), and the Europeans have no disease advantage. Even after the Ming were humbled by Li Zicheng and the Qin, they could still field musket armies in the tens of thousands, if not hundreds. Koxinga, a general who picked up the remnants of the Southern Ming, was able to send an army of 100,000 men north in the 1650's, as well as defeat the Dutch East India Company in Formosa in 1661-1662.
To be able to conquer the Ming outright, even the Southern Ming, the Europeans would have to field armies on the scale of the Ming since they are on the same tech level: multiple armies at least one hundred thousand strong. Projecting that kind of force around the Cape of Good Hope, the Indian Ocean, and South East Asia would be a terribly complicated feat. Neither do the European countries yet have the type of territories required to stage an invasion force that size; likely, they could not afford one anyway.
That leaves Europeans the option of taking China bit-by-bit, but Advernt's explained why that's not likely much better than I can
I suppose it would be possible to "conquer" Ming China in the sense that the Europeans could sponsor the Qing, thus making Qing China ostensibly a vassal. But that bond would be in name only, and probably not even exist in the minds of the Chinese.
To be able to conquer the Ming outright, even the Southern Ming, the Europeans would have to field armies on the scale of the Ming since they are on the same tech level: multiple armies at least one hundred thousand strong. Projecting that kind of force around the Cape of Good Hope, the Indian Ocean, and South East Asia would be a terribly complicated feat. Neither do the European countries yet have the type of territories required to stage an invasion force that size; likely, they could not afford one anyway.
That leaves Europeans the option of taking China bit-by-bit, but Advernt's explained why that's not likely much better than I can
I suppose it would be possible to "conquer" Ming China in the sense that the Europeans could sponsor the Qing, thus making Qing China ostensibly a vassal. But that bond would be in name only, and probably not even exist in the minds of the Chinese.
katchen
Banned
If any European nation could pull off a post-Ming conquest of China ala the Manchus it would be Russia.I realize that I sound like George Friedman (Stratfor)'s associate Robert Kaplan, but the only direction China ever gets conquered from is inner Asia.Russia may be a long way across Asia from China, but it's armed forces throughout the 17th, 18th and 19th Centuries are geared up the same way the Manchu and Mongol armies are geared up, with large masses of highly mobile cavalry. This is a good configuration for taking advantage of disorder inside the interior of China and much better than anything any of the more nautical states of Europe--or the United States--can come up with, especially on short notice. So if any nation can do it, that nation is Russia. Just like the Manchus or the Mongols--particularly the Dzungars---who I still wouldn't count out if the Manchus falter. The Dzungars are Tibetan Buddhist. It would be extremely interesting to have them ruling China.
Tsar of Russia, Emperor of China? But would the Confucian scholar class, which would probably be integral to the administration of China accept a Russian Emperor? Would there be a puppet Emperor? Or would the Tsar of Russia decide it'll be a good idea to proclaim himself the founder of a new dynasty? Is it even possible for the Russians to send a large enough army to do what the Manchu's did to China, perhaps with Dzhungar aid?
But, it is still essential that China does not almost immediately re-unify, and even then, I don't think the Russians have the capacity to advance sufficiently far down beyond the Yellow River at best, let alone all the way to Yunnan and Guangdong.
katchen
Banned
That's difficult to say. But the Russians did raise some very large armies against Charles XII of Sweden and Napoleon and eventually, like the Manchus, the Russians can raise armies of Chinese against Chinese. The Manchus couldn't raise enough troops amongst themselves alone to conquer China either.
First of all Europeans conquering China is borderline ASB.
However, as katchen said, only European country who could completer task is Russian Empire. It need a lot of luck huge ally.
Here is my scenrio.
1. During the Ivan the Terrible, one of Oirat tribe leader submit to Russia. Now with Russian fire arm and cannon as well as Cossak troops he would integrate whole Zungaria to Russia. After that they would take Khalkha Mongolian tribes one by one. by 1580 they would take whole Khalkha Mongolia (OTL Outer Mongolia + Western Inner Mongolia).
2. By this time Mongols still practice shamanism and they are ready to accept new religion. So you actively send missioners and convert
Mongolians to Russian Orthodox Church
3. Russians expand to Kazakhstan early and will integrate them. They would pressure from east and west and will conquer Kazakh tribes easily.
Now Russia controls nomadic tribes with massive cavalry. Combine with Cossak troops, Russia can wield huge army (easily 200,0 - 250,0 cavalry) that can conquer China.
4. No Time of Troubles. Ivan will be succeeded by competent ruler.
5. Wait till Ming Dynasty fells in chaos. Till then create systen that would make nomadic tribes more loyal to Tsar.
6. Around 1620 beat Eastern Mongolia-Manchu Alliance. And make them Tsars vassals. Now you increased your man power even more.
7. After Li Zicheng Rebellion wait Northern and Southern China exhaust themselves. Then launch conquest of Northern China.
8. Rapidly advance till Yangtze Delta and conquer. After that make Alliance with Spain/Portugal/Dutch. While Russia launch invasion from North, combined force of Spain/Portugal/Dutch will launch invasion from South/Sea.
scholar
Banned
I had a thought experiment on this a while back, its still unresolved until I find time to actually plan out the timeline.
Anyways,
The Southern Ming court, in the midst of its death throws, had converted to Catholicism and was eager for Portuguese and Spanish assistance. Have this occur earlier and have the Southern Ming invite in the Europeans for assistance, and you could possibly see a form of pseudo-colonial relationship form.
Its not hugely likely and would require a POD in Europe to keep Portugal and Spain near the height of their power in the east as well as keeping their evangelization spirit alive and well.
Anyways,
The Southern Ming court, in the midst of its death throws, had converted to Catholicism and was eager for Portuguese and Spanish assistance. Have this occur earlier and have the Southern Ming invite in the Europeans for assistance, and you could possibly see a form of pseudo-colonial relationship form.
Its not hugely likely and would require a POD in Europe to keep Portugal and Spain near the height of their power in the east as well as keeping their evangelization spirit alive and well.