AHC Make the US invade North Korea in place of Iraq in 2003
- Thread starter Marklin
- Start date
ROK officials have a meeting in an American city. Kim Jong-il decides to carry out Rangoon Bombing II in that city. No one tells him that's a really fucking stupid idea.
And apart from it being a really fucking stupid idea, the South Korean government at that time was centre-left, and relatively amicable toward the North. So KJI would be killing the closest thing he had to allies in the capitalist-bloc countries.
And apart from it being a really fucking stupid idea, the South Korean government at that time was centre-left, and relatively amicable toward the North. So KJI would be killing the closest thing he had to allies in the capitalist-bloc countries.
Maybe some DPRK-allied Koreans living in Japan carry out some really ill-advised anti-American actions in Japan, like a chemical gas attack on the US embassy. KJI is less than forthright in denouncing the crime, and American neo-cons spin it as ordered directly by Pyeongyang.
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Maybe have China invade Taiwan. If the USA is already at war with China, than the threat of Chinese intervention would be less of a deterrent, particularly if war breaks out in a way that triggers the mutual protection pact with South Korea.
I think you will have to have Bush "Sr." in conjunction with liberating Kuwait drive on Bagdad and get rid of Saddam in 1990-91. Then you remove a reason for Bush "Jr." to invade Iraq after 911.
Other than getting NK to state that they funded the 9-11 attack, I'm not sure what you can do to get the USA to invade. They have pretty much-developed WMDs and have them to the point that they advertise this fact. NK did back out of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons but that is a weak reason as India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan didn't sign on.
Unless they pull the trigger first and invade NK I'm starting to think this is entering the ASB realm.
Other than getting NK to state that they funded the 9-11 attack, I'm not sure what you can do to get the USA to invade. They have pretty much-developed WMDs and have them to the point that they advertise this fact. NK did back out of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons but that is a weak reason as India, Israel, Pakistan, and South Sudan didn't sign on.
Unless they pull the trigger first and invade NK I'm starting to think this is entering the ASB realm.
I don't know. NK has both China and Russia as neighbours. I don't think those two would like a US-aligned United Korea right on its doorstep. Unless the NKs do something very stupid, more so than nuclear testing. Or the NKs piss off both the Chinese and Russians enough that they won't bother and decide they can live with a united Korea.
I did read at least one War On Terror-era neo-con advising an invasion of the DPRK. Can't remember his name. It wasn't a very high-quality argument, as I recall.
This is probably the most realistic scenario for such an invasion to occur.
Probably only something ASB would be required, like an abundance of oil is discovered in North Korea.
Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and the Neocons would be rubbing their hands, believing they could waltz into Pyeongyang, be greeted as liberators, and seize all of North Korea's oilfields and profit.
Bush, Cheney, Rumsfeld and the Neocons would be rubbing their hands, believing they could waltz into Pyeongyang, be greeted as liberators, and seize all of North Korea's oilfields and profit.
Post Desert Storm, through to my retirement in 1997 near every HQ & field exercise I participated in was a Korean war scenario. The specifics of each varied, but the USMC was training first to fight NKPA. I thought that a bit over focused, but its what we did. One detail was that we were not overconfident, thinking the NKPA would be another version of the Iraqis of 1991. The senior leaders ensured we took the Koreas seriously & we fought them on the map as tough disciplined opponent.
Don't go flogging conspiracy theories here.
Especially ones that are have been both debunked and disproved by actual, you know, facts.
Key point was that they took them seriously, most of the Neocons never did Iraq which was the main problem. And to be clear pretty much everyone who was NOT a Bush in the Bush White House were deeply wrapped up in the concept that regime change in Iraq was the key to Middle East peace and everyone liking America having been flogging the idea since the end of Desert Storm. They were far to focused on that area to really consider North Korea a "threat". The only time they would trot out North Korea was to support anti-missile work and even then the overall 'presentation' was both vague and generally terribly presented.
As above I probably read the same one. (I think there may have been a couple more during the anti-missile funding debate but they could have been the same one recycled, the 'effort' was that bad)
Randy
North Korea would have to do something to provoke the US -but- also it'd have to be something that'd prevent the PRC from going on. I'm not entirely unconvinced that if North Korea started shit, the PRC wouldn't just roll in to prop up a new government there to keep the peninsula divided - They don't want the US on their doorstep, they want a buffer state.
That said, if North Korea were to attack South Korea in anyway then that'd trigger a US Invasion and a resumption of the Korean War for sure.
That said, if North Korea were to attack South Korea in anyway then that'd trigger a US Invasion and a resumption of the Korean War for sure.
A question in that regard is what could potentially trigger a Second Korean war in the early 2000s, or what changes could be made to set a path to war?
North Korea acting much more aggressively, that said I think you'd probably need something to distract the US from Korea before 9/11.
Maybe the 1993 WTC Bombings succeed? Or the Al-Qaeda plot to assassinate Clinton in 1996 succeeds, we could see North Korea ramp up aggressiveness if the US is distracted with an earlier War on Terror.
That said, will admit that such a thing may dissuade the North but either way I think they need the US looking elsewhere before they'd be willing to start poking.
..Once they've started however, maybe they go a bit too far and a war could break out. Not exactly sure what they could do differently from how they've been IRL, but I don't think it's entirely impossible they go a step too far.
If North Korea screws up hard and is the clear aggressor China may not lift a finger and may actually intervene on the US side. Economically South Korea is a better partner and if they can trade assistance in Korean reunification for demilitarizing the peninsula, I think that's a clear win-win for both sides.
Let's also remember that US China relations aren't nearly as bad as they became in the 2010s when the Uighur genocide became a prominent issue and the US political establishment got rowdy over trade issues. The US and China were basically allies against the USSR and while Tiananmen soured things, they weren't unreconcilable like they are today.
Let's also remember that US China relations aren't nearly as bad as they became in the 2010s when the Uighur genocide became a prominent issue and the US political establishment got rowdy over trade issues. The US and China were basically allies against the USSR and while Tiananmen soured things, they weren't unreconcilable like they are today.
There's a story of that here and on the wiki. North Korea attacks South Korea while the military was having exercises with the USFK in FOAL Eagle 2003. With the invasion of Iraq in full swing on the same month, the Bush administration faces a two-front war.
Similar scenario by @Mitridates the Great set in 2004 --> WI: USA decides to invade North Korea in response to Korea's first nuclear test.
China in 2003 won't be able to protect North Korea. No ocean-going navy and a localized air force to speak of. Ballistic missile numbers were not yet the threat as it was by the 2010s. Here's a source from 2002 with an old website interface. It even describes of the status of the PLAN's carrier plans.
Ditto for Russia.
www.businessinsider.com
While the South became rich and progressive, it has difficulty in procuring natural resources. The North has it, but has little to no methods to extract it due to UN sanctions.
Even in 1997, I wonder how truly efficient the KPA was. Once their supplies have been destroyed by USAF and USN strikes, they would probably lose their cohesion. Even today, it's questionable how the North Koreans would fight, considering the average North Korean can't even have access to three meals a day.
Northern Storm: Second Korean War 2003 TL
My first TL enjoy! Coming out of the 1994 Korean War thread. Second Korean War Timeline January 29, 2002- President George W. Bush during his State of the Union address announces North Korea as being part of an Axis of Evil with Iraq and Iran. He cites these nations as working to...
www.alternatehistory.com
Similar scenario by @Mitridates the Great set in 2004 --> WI: USA decides to invade North Korea in response to Korea's first nuclear test.
China in 2003 won't be able to protect North Korea. No ocean-going navy and a localized air force to speak of. Ballistic missile numbers were not yet the threat as it was by the 2010s. Here's a source from 2002 with an old website interface. It even describes of the status of the PLAN's carrier plans.
Ditto for Russia.
No oil in the DPRK but there are natural resources there. Untapped nonetheless.
There's a $10 trillion resource that North Korea can't tap
Now North Korea’s mining sector trade is under a full ban by the UN.
www.businessinsider.com
While the South became rich and progressive, it has difficulty in procuring natural resources. The North has it, but has little to no methods to extract it due to UN sanctions.
1994 was the closest to have a Second Korean War since the Clinton administration planned to use F-117s to bomb the Yongbon nuclear reactor. It would have resulted in a massive artillery and chemical attack on Seoul. The North Koreans would have been defeated because the 1990s showed the United States was the sole superpower after the Cold War.
Even in 1997, I wonder how truly efficient the KPA was. Once their supplies have been destroyed by USAF and USN strikes, they would probably lose their cohesion. Even today, it's questionable how the North Koreans would fight, considering the average North Korean can't even have access to three meals a day.