I had a similar TLIAD idea except it was a nested TL where it was a Shuffling of the Deck as though I was from the TL where those people were actually President in the order they lost.
-Barry Goldwater (No idea)
-Herbert Humphrey (Just on polling, have Nixon not go on Laugh In. Based on the Keys to the White House have RFK win, calming the protesters outside the Democratic Convention, have the Paris Peace Talks not be imploded by Nixon and have Wallace hurt Nixon more. Or have LBJ run, do all the previous, and then die in his next term).
-George McGovern (Have Nixon implode during the election from scandal instead of just before the midterm, preventing the Chinese trip and the Vietnam talks.)
-Walter Mondale (Ronald Reagan is assassinated, and Bush runs a moderate administration that is hated by the Conservatives who try to oust him in 84, damaging the party enough for Mondale to slide in a squeaker.)
-Michael Dukakis (Based on polling, answer those Law and Order questions better and don't do the tank thing. Based on Keys to the White House have the Iran Contra scandal blowing up early with Democrats making 86 a second 74 and the scandal damaging Bush as he seeks the Republican nomination.)
-Bob Dole (Clinton's sexual scandals come out in 96 close enough to the election for the GOP not to shoot themselves in the foot over it).
-Al Gore (Different ballot count in Florida)
-John Kerry (Polling...better campaign in Ohio. Keys...maybe if Bush choked to death on that pretzel leaving a power vacuum in the Republican Party.)
-John McCain (2000 is the best chance here)
-Mitt Romney (Healthcare fails, Obama fails to get Bin Laden)
Other folks from After 1900. Dewey or Wilkie could win if FDR opt to not run for term 3 or 4. Landon could win if FDR actually was assassinated leaving Garner in office. Smith might win if the market crashes in 28 instead of 29. Davis could win if the Democratic convention is still its OTL clusterfuck, but Harding live long enough to make the Republican convention do the same. James Cox could be President if he was the compromise choice in 24 after the same scenario as the previous one. Charles Evans Hughes wins the electoral college in 1916 if he swallows his pride and kisses Hiram Johnson's ring. William Jennings Bryan wins in 04 if McKinley doesn't die.
Alton Parker seems like a nice enough guy, but it seems unlikely that there is any other scenario that puts him anywhere near the Presidency. And I think Adlai Stevenson probably loses even against Robert Taft, though he might win on a second try.
In order:
Goldwater is near ASB levels. Civil Rights, post JFK assassination, up against LBJ, the virtually literal dictator of the New Deal coalition... Goldwater was simply not in the same political class of heavyweight as Johnson was.
In sub-order:
a) How are you going to calm the protesters? Their explicit goal was to get attention.
b) I think that the actual impact of the Chennault affair is strongly overblown. Thieu and his buddies knew that it was a bad deal from a lame duck President whose own party has had serious factions in it advocating that America hang their nation out to dry and has dealt with protesters waving the flags of the enemy, and whose opposition was one of the most notorious red baiters in history, and no Chennault will not butterfly this-Thieu has literally every incentive to not go along with Johnson after the bombing halt. Furthermore, Johnson's bombing halt was pretty much optimally timed for electoral purposes as it was, so changing the date won't help. If Thieu was able to sabotage Johnson then, he would any earlier time, and later will not help the Democrats.
c)Having no Wallace hurts Humphrey more than anything. Who else would they go for, assuming they vote at all? Those Wallace states are not going for Humphrey.
d) And as a general conclusion, people tend to forget that like in 1960, though the popular vote was close, the electoral vote was less so.
I've already explained, here and elsewhere, why a McGovern victory is near ASB. You need TIME to try Liddy and Company. And even there is a scandal, that might not be enough to get someone like George McGovern into the White House.
Volcker's reforms still take place, leading to the economic boom, and the new "tougher" America is most approved of by the populace. The country had gone right. And arguably Reagan being killed will cause people to sympathize with the administration more than anything.
You will have to make Iran Contra a lot bigger. Reagan still left office pretty popular, and the GOP was now the dominant party.
Who would be the sex scandal? If it is pre-Lewinsky, it probably would have already taken him down. Clinton was pretty good at taking character abuse, don't forget.
I'll give you Gore.
Kerry just was not a very good politician. If he could not beat Bush II in OTL's circumstances, I'm a little cynical that he ever would. And there is no way, if Bush chokes on the pretzel post 9/11, that the USA would ever learn the truth about it, not for a while anyway. Same case I mentioned with Reagan unless Cheney managed to goof up everything severely-which he might.
Agree on McCain.
Hm... will that overcome the GOPs worsening reputation among the people?
