On a side note, anyone think this guy gave Argentina Royal Navy submarine secrets? Is Argentina still considered an "enemy of the UK?"
AHC: Make the Falklands Argentinian by 2012
- Thread starter Makemakean
- Start date
Alex Richards
Donor
It's the Mail. You might as well quote Fox news or RT for all the trustworthyness.
THIS.
Strategic nuclear launch between Warsaw Pact and NATO in the mid 1980s. United Kingdom falls into 'Threads'/'Protect and Survive' type situation and Argentina (relatively unscathed directly) takes Falklands.
Only way I can see it.
There's an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease on the islands resulting in the destruction of the sheep population, which devastates the islands' economy and displaces the war's mindshare in the British political/media consciousness, say in 1996.
Many islanders emigrate, mostly back to England. With the steadily declining population comes pressure from the MoD and RAF to reduce the commitment to the Falklands, and when the UK needs to send troops to Iraq in 2001, Saa offers a cash buyout, hoping to improve his execrable popularity, funded by the US, which seeks to bolster the UK military commitment in Afghanistan and Iraq.
While Saa's government still falls after the default, the Duhalde administration still goes through with the bribe, paying every islander $100,000 US and securing the Malvinas for Argentina.
Many islanders emigrate, mostly back to England. With the steadily declining population comes pressure from the MoD and RAF to reduce the commitment to the Falklands, and when the UK needs to send troops to Iraq in 2001, Saa offers a cash buyout, hoping to improve his execrable popularity, funded by the US, which seeks to bolster the UK military commitment in Afghanistan and Iraq.
While Saa's government still falls after the default, the Duhalde administration still goes through with the bribe, paying every islander $100,000 US and securing the Malvinas for Argentina.
RamscoopRaider
Donor
I think the Argies tried it in Protect and Survive and got nuked for their pains
If the British government is still intact and still has some nukes left it won't happen
Last edited:
Garrison
Donor
Yeah I suspect they will want to make a point to anyone who might be tempted by the situation to move against British territory.
The common understanding nowadays (and I concur with it) is that the Argentine military junta launched the invasion in order to strenghten its position internally and gain some credit by the Argentineans. This is also why they have prepared (and by some accounts even launched) an invasion of Southern Chile.
So I think, that in order to make the Falklands at least tied to some extend to Argentina you need to avoid the junta's gamble of 1982. I would expect it to happen like that:
- Buenos Aires considers going to a full scale war with Chile, after it decides, that the Malvinas wouldn't be of some particular value to it
- the analysis however show that the conflict would quickly turn into a stalemate along the Andean mountain passes and the rough terrain of Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego
- the Argentinean elite is worried, that the negative international image of the country because of human right violations and political instabillity is damaging the country's economy. This is why they come up with a plan to warm the relationships of Argentina foremost with Chile and Brasil and impress the military government to put it to work. They even make a hint to the military leadership how the stable economical situation of Chile with the advisory role of the Chicago boys is keeping the neighboring population's negative tendencies towards the regime at bay to some extend.
- Pinochet is happy to be able to avoid a full-scale conflict with Argentina, as at the moment the Argentinean armed forces are at least technologicaly more advanced and decides to play along. So does the Brazilian government, which decides, that not only would a warming-up of its relations with Argentina would bring to it some good PR on the world stage, but it would allow to turn to its internal problems without worrying about tensions on its southern border.
- the plan the Argentineans put to work is a very complex one. In a series of secret meetings the country's elite succeeds in convincing the high-ranking officers, that military rule is reaching a dead-end and would soon force a foreign intervention by the superpowers upon itself in one form or another. They also assure the junta, that the foremost concern of a future civil government would be to avoid the spreading of the political left. They play a theatrical piece, in which the tensions in the Argentine society between the different political groups rise quickly and the junta "is preparing to go to war in order to give the nation a boost in morale around which it could rally". Then "suddenly" a "more moderate group of officers" launches a " successfull coup" and declares, that its goal is to restore democracy. The violance, that erupted in the weeks leading to these events starts to drop rapidly and everyone is so happy about it, that very few are suspicious about that coincidence and at the "free elections" held six months later the group, that came up with the whole plan wins the elections.
- they contact Washington, D.C. and make a point before the US government, that the violence from the last months of the military dictatorship has severely crippled the economy, but if signifficant US investments are made the ecomonic growth would just be the magic pill the Argentine society needs. Brasilia and Santiago de Chile jump on the same boat and the four countries come out with plans for closer co-operation between them.
- the Department of State is happy, that it could streghten its positions in Latin America by buiyng the partnership of the major powers in the region and more importantly that this way the eventual US military intervention, which would be needed in case the instability escalated, is avoided. The best thing is, that "these jumpy latinos were even concidering going to war with Britain about those Falkland rocks, they claim to mean so much to them and now we don't need to pick a side".
- the American industrialists are also happy, because for their help they would strenghten their positions in South America, gain soe credit as the "good guys", which for them would be nice thing for a change and by stating to the US government, that they are helping it out would gain many valuable concessions from Washington.
- the Argentinean, Chilean and Brasilian governments make constant claims, that the only reason for their actions was to keep communism from spreading and relax their actions towards the opposition. The South African government realises that this wave of detente might be its greatest and last chance to break its isolation and takes exactly the same actions - makes widely heard its declaration, that its main concern is the fight against the spreading of communism, it relaxes somewhat its apparteid legislation and it makes a statement, that if left alone from outside hostilities it would concentrate on development of its country in order to gradually even the social and political standings of its diverse ethnical groups.
- while the major countries of the Southern hemisphere deepen their economical and political ties the Soviet Union is worried that its influence in the region is starting to errode and it increases its support for the Marxist movements both in South America and Southern Africa. The US starts to support South Africa in its Border War for that reason and the USSR realises that the proxy conflict could quickly escalate and Moscow is in no condition to fight two Afghanistans simultaneously.
- so now the situation in both South America and Southern Africa is starting to normalize. Brasil, Argentina, Chile and South Africa declare, that the development of their regions and the prosperity of their people is far more important to them, than the Cold War. More so their rapid economical growth due to the increasing stability makes the US realise, that this situation is in their interest, as they gain the upper hand in the influence in these regions. They try to convince Great Britain to leave the Falklands, in order to defuse a future generator of instability
- London agrees - it has been less and less interested in these barren rocks in the last years and now it gets the possibility to get rid of them without losing face. It comes out with a declaration, that the latest democratic developments in South America have removed the immediate military threat of intervention and it is willing to give the Falkland population the right to decide its future at a plebiscite, but that it would also cut its financial aid for the islands. For the last couple of years the immigration regime of the Falkland islands ahs been relaxed by London, with the hope, that a considerable number of Argentineans would come to the archipelago and through their interaction with them the islanders would consider the possibility to join Argentina. In that way the separation from Great Britain would be less painful and the decision to cut the economical aid was targeted to make that precise hint.
- the plans came to a fruitition, as the rapid Argentinean economic growth has increased the business conections between Buenos Aires and Port Stanley several times. At the talks held two months before the referendum the Argentine government came up with a suggestion to grant a wide authonomy to the islands within Argentina in a similar manner to OTL Hong-Kong.
- the Falklanders vote in favour of the plan with 50,7% voting to join Argentina; 42,5% voting to stay within Great Britain and only 6,2% voting for independent Falklands
Even to me it seems a little bit like ASB, but I still gave it a try.
So I think, that in order to make the Falklands at least tied to some extend to Argentina you need to avoid the junta's gamble of 1982. I would expect it to happen like that:
- Buenos Aires considers going to a full scale war with Chile, after it decides, that the Malvinas wouldn't be of some particular value to it
- the analysis however show that the conflict would quickly turn into a stalemate along the Andean mountain passes and the rough terrain of Patagonia and Tierra del Fuego
- the Argentinean elite is worried, that the negative international image of the country because of human right violations and political instabillity is damaging the country's economy. This is why they come up with a plan to warm the relationships of Argentina foremost with Chile and Brasil and impress the military government to put it to work. They even make a hint to the military leadership how the stable economical situation of Chile with the advisory role of the Chicago boys is keeping the neighboring population's negative tendencies towards the regime at bay to some extend.
- Pinochet is happy to be able to avoid a full-scale conflict with Argentina, as at the moment the Argentinean armed forces are at least technologicaly more advanced and decides to play along. So does the Brazilian government, which decides, that not only would a warming-up of its relations with Argentina would bring to it some good PR on the world stage, but it would allow to turn to its internal problems without worrying about tensions on its southern border.
- the plan the Argentineans put to work is a very complex one. In a series of secret meetings the country's elite succeeds in convincing the high-ranking officers, that military rule is reaching a dead-end and would soon force a foreign intervention by the superpowers upon itself in one form or another. They also assure the junta, that the foremost concern of a future civil government would be to avoid the spreading of the political left. They play a theatrical piece, in which the tensions in the Argentine society between the different political groups rise quickly and the junta "is preparing to go to war in order to give the nation a boost in morale around which it could rally". Then "suddenly" a "more moderate group of officers" launches a " successfull coup" and declares, that its goal is to restore democracy. The violance, that erupted in the weeks leading to these events starts to drop rapidly and everyone is so happy about it, that very few are suspicious about that coincidence and at the "free elections" held six months later the group, that came up with the whole plan wins the elections.
- they contact Washington, D.C. and make a point before the US government, that the violence from the last months of the military dictatorship has severely crippled the economy, but if signifficant US investments are made the ecomonic growth would just be the magic pill the Argentine society needs. Brasilia and Santiago de Chile jump on the same boat and the four countries come out with plans for closer co-operation between them.
- the Department of State is happy, that it could streghten its positions in Latin America by buiyng the partnership of the major powers in the region and more importantly that this way the eventual US military intervention, which would be needed in case the instability escalated, is avoided. The best thing is, that "these jumpy latinos were even concidering going to war with Britain about those Falkland rocks, they claim to mean so much to them and now we don't need to pick a side".
- the American industrialists are also happy, because for their help they would strenghten their positions in South America, gain soe credit as the "good guys", which for them would be nice thing for a change and by stating to the US government, that they are helping it out would gain many valuable concessions from Washington.
- the Argentinean, Chilean and Brasilian governments make constant claims, that the only reason for their actions was to keep communism from spreading and relax their actions towards the opposition. The South African government realises that this wave of detente might be its greatest and last chance to break its isolation and takes exactly the same actions - makes widely heard its declaration, that its main concern is the fight against the spreading of communism, it relaxes somewhat its apparteid legislation and it makes a statement, that if left alone from outside hostilities it would concentrate on development of its country in order to gradually even the social and political standings of its diverse ethnical groups.
- while the major countries of the Southern hemisphere deepen their economical and political ties the Soviet Union is worried that its influence in the region is starting to errode and it increases its support for the Marxist movements both in South America and Southern Africa. The US starts to support South Africa in its Border War for that reason and the USSR realises that the proxy conflict could quickly escalate and Moscow is in no condition to fight two Afghanistans simultaneously.
- so now the situation in both South America and Southern Africa is starting to normalize. Brasil, Argentina, Chile and South Africa declare, that the development of their regions and the prosperity of their people is far more important to them, than the Cold War. More so their rapid economical growth due to the increasing stability makes the US realise, that this situation is in their interest, as they gain the upper hand in the influence in these regions. They try to convince Great Britain to leave the Falklands, in order to defuse a future generator of instability
- London agrees - it has been less and less interested in these barren rocks in the last years and now it gets the possibility to get rid of them without losing face. It comes out with a declaration, that the latest democratic developments in South America have removed the immediate military threat of intervention and it is willing to give the Falkland population the right to decide its future at a plebiscite, but that it would also cut its financial aid for the islands. For the last couple of years the immigration regime of the Falkland islands ahs been relaxed by London, with the hope, that a considerable number of Argentineans would come to the archipelago and through their interaction with them the islanders would consider the possibility to join Argentina. In that way the separation from Great Britain would be less painful and the decision to cut the economical aid was targeted to make that precise hint.
- the plans came to a fruitition, as the rapid Argentinean economic growth has increased the business conections between Buenos Aires and Port Stanley several times. At the talks held two months before the referendum the Argentine government came up with a suggestion to grant a wide authonomy to the islands within Argentina in a similar manner to OTL Hong-Kong.
- the Falklanders vote in favour of the plan with 50,7% voting to join Argentina; 42,5% voting to stay within Great Britain and only 6,2% voting for independent Falklands
Even to me it seems a little bit like ASB, but I still gave it a try.